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Speaker 1: Now there were almost twenty eight thousand fewer jobs in

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Speaker 1: June compared to last June. More than twelve thousand of

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Speaker 1: those lost jobs came from the construction sector, almost six

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Speaker 1: thousand were manufacturing jobs. Education and primary industries added jobs.

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Speaker 1: Brad Olsen as INFA Metrics Principal Economists, Hey, Brad, good evening. Look,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, lost jobs has lost jobs, and

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Speaker 1: it's never great. But is this as bad as expected

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Speaker 1: or is it worse or not and not as bad?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, look, it's certainly challenging when the economy

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Speaker 2: has lost twenty eight thousand rolls over the last year,

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Speaker 2: But in fairness, we've sort of already known that for

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Speaker 2: quite a few months. You look back at what we've

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Speaker 2: seen over the last couple and job numbers have been

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Speaker 2: down at this level or if not even worse of

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Speaker 2: an annual decline. That's not to say that things are

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Speaker 2: easy at the moment, but we have been seeing on

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Speaker 2: a more month to month basis that job numbers in

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Speaker 2: New Zealand have broadly been tracking sideways, some months up,

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Speaker 2: some months down, but really no real trend. And I

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Speaker 2: think that's probably the wider concern. We know that there's

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Speaker 2: been a big job drop in jobs, but people are

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Speaker 2: now looking and going well. Surely now that we're starting

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Speaker 2: to see some of those the economic rev up that's

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Speaker 2: being talked about, where are the jobs, we're starting to

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Speaker 2: see that growth yet and unfortunately, so far, there's just

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Speaker 2: not really any evidence. In the month of June a

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Speaker 2: very slight zero point one percent increase in the seasonally

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Speaker 2: adjusted monthly figures, but really no real trend in so far.

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Speaker 2: There's just no evidence that we're seeing a pick up

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Speaker 2: quite yet. Have we reached the bottom though, I think

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Speaker 2: we probably have, or you'd certainly hope so, over the

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Speaker 2: next couple of months at least, I don't think it

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Speaker 2: would start to deteriorate all that much. Further, we're still

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Speaker 2: expecting that the likes of the unemployment rate will peak

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Speaker 2: ever so slightly higher than where it was at the

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Speaker 2: start of this year around five point three percent over

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Speaker 2: the next couple of months. But interestingly, you're starting to

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Speaker 2: see in some areas actually a bit of growth. For

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Speaker 2: the likes of the South Island job numbers are now

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Speaker 2: up ever so slightly on where they were a year ago.

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Speaker 2: It's just that North Island job figures are down quite heavily,

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Speaker 2: and so I think that does start to high like that. Yes,

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Speaker 2: there are some areas that are starting to see a

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Speaker 2: slow pick up the primary sector. Are you seeing some

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Speaker 2: more jobs coming through in the likes of finance, health, education,

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Speaker 2: But other big job losses, like in construction and manufacturing,

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Speaker 2: professional professional services, none of those picking up anytime soon.

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Speaker 2: And I think that's the challenge, is that some of

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Speaker 2: those big areas that normally do take on a lot

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Speaker 2: of jobs just no real new opportunities starting to show through.

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Speaker 2: So tough out there still for many.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, totally. I mean construction we obviously expected to pick

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Speaker 1: up again, but manufacturing do you ever expect it to

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Speaker 1: pick up or have we kind of have we got

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Speaker 1: to the point now where most of the stuff that

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Speaker 1: we've lost will never be replaced.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think in some areas businesses will of course

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Speaker 2: have been looking at you know, buying capital, you know,

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Speaker 2: plant and equipment, machinery to try and do some of

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Speaker 2: those roles into the future, so potentially there's not quite

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Speaker 2: as much upturn. But also in some of those more

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Speaker 2: niche sort of advanced manufacturing areas, Yes, I think New

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Speaker 2: Zealand's got some opportunity there. It's actually probably the other

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Speaker 2: way round of construction. I'm not sure if those numbers

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Speaker 2: necessarily pick up all that heavily. Yes, the government's doing

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Speaker 2: more infrastructure investment and similar but we're not about to

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Speaker 2: crash interest rates down to a level that would stimulate

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Speaker 2: the highest building since the nineteen seventies. That's where we

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Speaker 2: were a couple of years ago. That's why we've had

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Speaker 2: such a job loss because we added so many before.

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Speaker 2: Long story short, we're just trying to find that goldilock

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Speaker 2: zone for the economy at the moment, and that is

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Speaker 2: a very very tough process when you're seeing these numbers

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Speaker 2: of job losses coming through.

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Speaker 1: Fair enough, Now, Brad, did I see you on the

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Speaker 1: news as being in China?

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Speaker 2: Indeed? Indeed, I am, Is this a holiday?

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Speaker 1: I mean, what am I asking?

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Speaker 2: You?

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Speaker 1: Never take a holiday? So what work related thing are

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Speaker 1: you doing in China?

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Speaker 2: It's a holiday of sorts hither, I mean, I'm just

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Speaker 2: sort of here trying to see what the economy's doing it.

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Speaker 2: Of course, China is our largest trading partner and there's

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Speaker 2: some pretty big opportunity, so having a bit of a

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Speaker 2: look around anything from you know, what's happening with consumer

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Speaker 2: trends and the fact that there's just so many new

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Speaker 2: products all of a sudden, you know, coming out sort

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Speaker 2: of every second week. Lots of new drinks and beverages,

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Speaker 2: cheesy options and similar emerging. I mean, we talk a

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Speaker 2: lot about butter and New Zealand at the moment that

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Speaker 2: over in China they're paying a lot more for what

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Speaker 2: we're sending over so it's good to see a healthy

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Speaker 2: export market occurring.

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Speaker 1: To what's the coolest thing you see? What's the coolest

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Speaker 1: new product you've seen?

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Speaker 2: Oh, I'm trying to think. I mean, there have been

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Speaker 2: some recent collabs where you know, your classic cheese slice,

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Speaker 2: well now they've eddited in a few extra flavors into them,

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Speaker 2: you know, to sort of meet the market over here.

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Speaker 2: I think there's something like spicy crayfish tomato, and there

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Speaker 2: was one other I've forgotten. But it's neat because you're

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Speaker 2: seeing sort of product innovation right in front of you.

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Speaker 2: New Zealand we're sort of on the bleeding edge of

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Speaker 2: taking those new opportunities, you know, figuring out what local

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Speaker 2: customers want and then sort of churning them out or

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Speaker 2: working with partners to put out the good stuff. It's

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Speaker 2: been quite exciting just to see everything. I mean, everything

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Speaker 2: moves so fast here. The tech and innovation is just hectic.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff. Brad Hey, thanks very much and safe travels back.

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Speaker 1: That's brad owsoon Infametric's principle economist. For more from Heather

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Speaker 1: Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to News Talks it B

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