1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,080 Speaker 1: So a couple of days ago on the Air Force 2 00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:04,520 Speaker 1: one back to Washington, we were talking about land power 3 00:00:04,600 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: plants and dividing up certain assets. That was going to 4 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 1: be the phone call, where the phone calls come and gone. 5 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:12,320 Speaker 1: It seems to have had limited success. A non resident 6 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis said, 7 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: with Lucas has with us on. They said, good morning 8 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 1: to you, Good morning mate. What do you make of 9 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: what we've heard so far? 10 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: Well, it's pretty thin pickings. Really. The thing that struck 11 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 2: me most was not the call, but what happed beforehand, 12 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 2: when Putin was on some live panel as a conference 13 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:35,959 Speaker 2: and the moderator said, aren't you meant to be having 14 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 2: your call with Trump just now? And there was sort 15 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 2: of widespread laughter because of Putin's famous weaponized unpunctuality. So 16 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 2: I do feel that he's showing the respects to Trump 17 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 2: that Trump shows to Putin, and perhaps the rather thin 18 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 2: pickings out of the call reflect that in. 19 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 1: The sense of what we've got specifically, in other words, 20 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: until they cut off for intelligence, until they cut off, 21 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: aid we're not talking or going any further. Was that 22 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: always expected from Russia? And therefore we shouldn't be surprised. 23 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 2: I think that the what we expect from Russia is 24 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 2: to spin things out and to try and and then 25 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 2: bog things down. So the thing that leaped out at 26 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 2: me was the idea of a maritime ceasefire in the 27 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 2: Black Sea. Now, is that cover for Russia being able 28 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 2: to get its neighbor out of its navy, out of 29 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:28,399 Speaker 2: the little corner of the Black Sea it's retreated to 30 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 2: because of Ukrainian drones. That would be quite a bad 31 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 2: thing if it means that Russia won't attack grain shits 32 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 2: coming in and out of a death So that's that's 33 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 2: a good thing. The second thing that really struck me 34 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 2: was the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons. Now, 35 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 2: that's presumably a reference to the way in which European 36 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 2: countries feel prettyts scared about the loss of the American 37 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 2: neutral umbrella, and there's a lot of discussion in Europe 38 00:01:56,120 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 2: about what we could do with British or French nukes 39 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 2: and whether other countries are going to need nukes too. 40 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 2: So that's a sign that Russian's notice about that. And 41 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 2: the third thing that struck me was this idea that 42 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 2: there's a huge upside to an improved bilateral relationship to 43 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 2: the Americans and Russians. And that shows me to me 44 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 2: that the Americans are willing to cut the Europeans loose 45 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 2: and go for what they think is a good deal 46 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 2: with Russia and hang the rest of US. 47 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 1: I was just going to ask about you, where does 48 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: that leave them? And can I now argue that Sea 49 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: told you Putent doesn't want peace. 50 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 2: I think it leaves the EU on the sidelines really 51 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 2: for now, because it just shows that the dynamic is 52 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 2: what we've always feared here in Europe, is that the 53 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 2: negotiations will be about us, but without us, and that 54 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 2: really is what's going on. This war in Ukraine isn't 55 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,639 Speaker 2: just an invasion of Ukraine. It's a kind of attempt 56 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 2: by Putin to reset the whole idea of European security 57 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 2: and the idea that European countries can choose their allies 58 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 2: and alliances again to be and that's now being decided 59 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 2: to over our head. So I think that the next 60 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 2: thing probably is that the Europeans are going to be 61 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 2: pushing back on this and saying to the Ukrainians, look, 62 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 2: we've got your back. Dirt be bullet dirt, be bulleted, 63 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 2: and the gap across the Atlantic then is going to 64 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 2: get wider and wider. 65 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: Okay, it would't appreciate the insight very much here, but 66 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 1: Lucas non residencior fell out at the Center for European 67 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 1: Policy Analysis, will get him back on the program, because 68 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 1: the thing's going nowhere fast. For more from The Mic 69 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 1: Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks. It'd be from 70 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.