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Speaker 1: Let's go to the brain drain numbers. So these are

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Speaker 1: migration stats out looks like the worst of it might

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Speaker 1: be over migration stats out for the year to November.

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Speaker 1: The rate of Kiwi citizens leaving the country has fallen

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Speaker 1: since June, and we had a small net population gain

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Speaker 1: of about ten thousand for the year to November. Brad

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Speaker 1: Olsen is infametrics principle economists with us tonight, Brad, good evening.

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Speaker 2: Good evening, Ryan.

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Speaker 1: So we're not all moving to Australia anymore, is that

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Speaker 1: what we're saying?

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Speaker 2: What are we saying? Well, I think you're exactly right

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Speaker 2: that we've seen most of the trends effectively plateau. So

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Speaker 2: you know, instead of seeing huge numbers of Kiwis that

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Speaker 2: have continued to move out, yes they're still high, but

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Speaker 2: they're not continuing to increase. They're sort of now moving

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Speaker 2: a bit more sideways. And even you look at those

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Speaker 2: figures of Kiwis moving to Australia and sort of the

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Speaker 2: overall net gain there that does seem to be again

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Speaker 2: easing back, just ever so slightly in recent times. Long

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Speaker 2: story short, probably the most interesting thing with these figures

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Speaker 2: is not only the headline figured, like you say, roughly

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Speaker 2: ten thousand the net migration figure over the last twelve months,

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Speaker 2: but also the revisions in terms of people coming into

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Speaker 2: the country as well, the arrival figures and departures have

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Speaker 2: both been revised lower in November compared to what we

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Speaker 2: had previously, and it just sort of in our minds

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Speaker 2: when we look through those figures, just suggests that there's

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Speaker 2: not quite as much intensity in terms of both the

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Speaker 2: number of people still coming in, which was always hard

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Speaker 2: to understand when you looked at the likes of the

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Speaker 2: higher unemployment rate, but also, like you say, not quite

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Speaker 2: as many people leaving as we might have first expected.

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Speaker 1: So has the whole thing been a bit overhyped?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, in a sense we're still yet to

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Speaker 2: see fully even the most recent figures are still quite volatile,

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Speaker 2: and you do see those revisions come through quite a bit.

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Speaker 2: But now we're sort of getting a little bit more

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Speaker 2: certainty around the data for what happens sort of more

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Speaker 2: mid twenty twenty five, and that certainly suggests that again

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Speaker 2: some of those primary expectations might have been a bit overhyped,

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Speaker 2: and part of it seems to be when you dig

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Speaker 2: into the figures it's sort of hard to tell when

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Speaker 2: someone leaves the country if they're going to be a

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Speaker 2: migro or if they're just going on holiday and maybe

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Speaker 2: a longer holiday. And I dare expect that when you

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Speaker 2: look in some of the figures, it might well have

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Speaker 2: been that there were a few more Kiwis that were

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Speaker 2: taking trips to Australia. But it also might have been

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Speaker 2: that people have been looking overseas at jobs. They might

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Speaker 2: have moved figured out that actually there's not as many

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Speaker 2: sort of just heaps of spare jobs overseas compared to

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Speaker 2: New Zealand, and actually might well have had to come back.

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Speaker 2: You've been hearing more anecdotes of that recently as well,

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Speaker 2: so there's a combination of things. But it does seem like, look,

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Speaker 2: the migration figures do seem to be trending out a

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Speaker 2: bit more at where they currently are, rather than dipping

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Speaker 2: up or dipping down particularly quickly interesting stuff.

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Speaker 1: Brad appreciated brad Elson inf Metrics. Good to have you

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Speaker 1: on the show. As always. For more from Heather Duplessy

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Speaker 1: Allen Drive, listen live to news talks it'd be from

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