1 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Calder. 2 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:09,400 Speaker 2: I'm Janee in for Chelsea Daniels and this is the 3 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 2: Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. 4 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: Yesterday, stats ENZ released. 5 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 2: New Zealand's GDP performance for the last quarter of twenty 6 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 2: twenty five, and the government tells us things are looking 7 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 2: pretty rosy, with gross domestic product rising point two percent, 8 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 2: but the Reserve bankert forecast growth of point five percent. 9 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 2: So while the latest results show we're heading in the 10 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 2: right direction, are we traveling there fast enough? 11 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: Today? 12 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 2: On the Front Page, New Zealand Herald Business Editor at 13 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 2: Large Liam Dan joins us to explain what the latest 14 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 2: results mean and how the conflict in the Middle East 15 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 2: might impact the next. 16 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: Chapter of our economic story. 17 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 2: Liam, what's the significance of these GDP announcements, Like what 18 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 2: does it mean for the everyday New Zealander. 19 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 3: Well, they're really just like a kind of a scorecard 20 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 3: in some respects, Like, you know, is the economy and 21 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 3: then they tell us are we moving forward or not? 22 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 3: You know, there's a whole bunch of things that are 23 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 3: wrong with GDP and people point them out all the time, 24 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 3: you know, the things that doesn't measure, but essentially it's 25 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 3: just how much got made and produced by the economy 26 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 3: of a certain period. It doesn't necessarily translate to how 27 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,679 Speaker 3: rich or well or or well people are feeling at 28 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 3: an individual level, but it is, you know, it is 29 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:30,040 Speaker 3: a sort of a benchmark that gets used to tell 30 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,479 Speaker 3: us whether we're in recession. You know, two quarters of 31 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 3: negative growth GDP growth is qulled of recession. Yeah, really really, 32 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 3: it's just it's just a good indicator of whether we've 33 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 3: been going forward or backwards. But it is quite dated 34 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 3: as well, so you know, it's we're looking at the 35 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 3: last quarter of twenty twenty five, so it's telling us 36 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 3: how it was and if you didn't you either had 37 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 3: a good time where you didn't in the last quarter 38 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 3: of twenty twenty five. 39 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: We kind of know it's already happened. 40 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, So at an individual level, we've already 41 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 3: through it. But you know, it is useful for economists 42 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 3: to get a sense of how strength was building in 43 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 3: the economy, or in the case of the data we've 44 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 3: just had, how it wasn't building unfortunately. 45 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: So it's a single figure. What is it actually measuring? 46 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 1: What does it tell us? 47 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's output. 48 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 3: It's the number of widgets that got made in the economy, 49 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 3: and every dollar spent, every transaction, everything that's bought and sold, 50 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 3: basically that we can count, so all commercial activity, I 51 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 3: guess you'd say, in the economy. And so that's been 52 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:35,679 Speaker 3: criticized in the past because it doesn't put a value 53 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 3: on work that's done on the home, work that's done 54 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 3: on a charity basis, all that sort of stuff. But 55 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 3: you know, you've got to you've got to count things 56 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 3: and have a sort of a benchmark to work from. 57 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 3: You know, if we want our factories and our economy 58 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 3: to produce more, to create more wealth, it's good to 59 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 3: know how much it had produced up to a certain point. 60 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: But it doesn't count a lot of the nuance. 61 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 2: As you say, is there a better way or is 62 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 2: this just like it's as good as it gets. 63 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 4: Well, that's debated. 64 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 3: You know, there's been attempts to measure, you know, to 65 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 3: come up with sort of well being measures and try 66 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:17,959 Speaker 3: and measure how. 67 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 4: People are doing. 68 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 3: Look, there's a whole range of economic data that you 69 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 3: can use to create a more sort of deeper, richer 70 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 3: sort of picture of what's going on in economy. In 71 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,359 Speaker 3: an economy and I've argued in the past that we're 72 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 3: too focused on just GDP because we really respond to 73 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 3: a recession headline. But I think there isn't kind of 74 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 3: a replacement. You know, it gets the more you add 75 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: to it, the more complex it gets, and the more 76 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 3: nuanced it becomes, and it gets away from that absolute 77 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 3: sort of here's the score sheet, and people like that. 78 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 3: Whether we like it or not, it seems to be, 79 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 3: you know, what people respond to. So you know, as 80 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 3: someone who covers the economy, I can't just say, oh, 81 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 3: I'm not going to cover it this month or this 82 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 3: this quarter. 83 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 4: Let's not worry about it. No, because it's a big deal. 84 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: It gets attention and not everyone's an economist, you know. 85 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: So it's the one thing we can kind of understand, 86 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 1: is it going up? Is it going down? 87 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 4: And play how much down or sideways? 88 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 1: Sometimes, So let's talk about the result. It was. It 89 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 1: was a positive, it was a growth, it was a 90 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: growth of Yeah, it. 91 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 4: Was growth, and it's better to go to grow than shrink. 92 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:28,120 Speaker 1: Of course it is, but talk about that growth. 93 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 2: It was the Reserve Bank and forecast growth of zero 94 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 2: point five percent. Economists were slightly less optimistic, ranging from 95 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 2: about point two to zero point four percent. Firstly, I 96 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 2: want to know what were you forecasting, what were you predicting? 97 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: I feel like cow internal optimists. 98 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I would have liked to have seen it 99 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 3: at the zero point four with the you know, some 100 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 3: of the other more optimistic economists. I felt like we 101 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:55,479 Speaker 3: were starting to get some momentum going. And you know, 102 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 3: you've got a simple equation in New Zealand. You've got 103 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 3: really strong dairy export prices and meat export prices, and 104 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 3: so that's boosting. It brings money into the country, and 105 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 3: then you've got interest rates coming down lower and in 106 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,920 Speaker 3: days gone by, that was enough for an economic boom. 107 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 3: So I was hopeful it would be stronger. I didn't 108 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 3: think it'll be a boom, but it wasn't. 109 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 4: That it was. 110 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 3: It was pretty tepid growth really, given that we'd had 111 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 3: had much stronger growth the quarter before and this. You know, 112 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 3: people like to do a per capita GDP, you know, 113 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 3: because if you've got a lot of population growth, that 114 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 3: can flatter the overall top line GDP number. We haven't 115 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 3: had masses of immigration, but still, you only it was 116 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 3: flat per capita because of there was there was you know, 117 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 3: more people coming in, so you know, when you average 118 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,479 Speaker 3: it out for each individual person, GDP was was pretty 119 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 3: much flat on that second quarter. So that's not a 120 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 3: fantastic result, especially going into the kind of year we're 121 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 3: in now. 122 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. So this is, as you mentioned, it's sort 123 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,159 Speaker 2: of it's a little bit old news. It's nice to 124 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 2: look at. It's nice to get a big, top line 125 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 2: picture of what was happening in the direction we were 126 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 2: heading in late last year. 127 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: But of course now there's a war. 128 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:10,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's right, I mean, and i've sort of 129 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 3: i mean, all the data we're getting now up and 130 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 3: you know, we're getting February data through, so it's sort 131 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 3: of all just up to the time that the oil 132 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 3: shock started. But you know, we're looking at how resilient 133 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 3: the economy was at that point to give us a 134 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 3: sense of, you know, what it looks like going forward. 135 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 3: So if things would been you know, if things are 136 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 3: really strong and there's a lot of growth, then there's 137 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 3: room for that growth to come down without heading into recession. 138 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 3: If we were already in recession, that would be a worry. 139 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 3: So stronger is better, even when we're looking a time 140 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 3: before that oil shock hit. 141 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 2: And the Finance Minister, of course, is celebrating the growth, 142 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 2: saying that we are in a stronger position because of 143 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,359 Speaker 2: it to face what's coming down the line with the 144 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 2: impact of them. It was quite a short press release, 145 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 2: I thought it was then through the first half obviously 146 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 2: focused on the growth and what a great position we're 147 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 2: in and this is coming out of out of the 148 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 2: Finance Minister's office. The second half really concentrated on the 149 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 2: potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Do 150 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 2: you think that there is a little bit of groundwork 151 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 2: being laid with this sort of messaging around managing our expectations. 152 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think, and this is something I've 153 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 3: talking to colleagues in the gallery. There's a feeling that 154 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 3: that that press release, that that press conference yesterday was 155 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 3: meant to be a bit more celebratory about GDP. I'm 156 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 3: sure the government would have liked to see the stronger 157 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 3: number and could have would have talked about it more 158 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 3: had that been the case. It wasn't, so they switched 159 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 3: quite quickly to the crisis in front of them, which 160 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 3: is fair enough. They've got a lot to deal with, 161 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 3: but you know, that's an ongoing thing. You know, from 162 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 3: a political point of view. You know, if the economy 163 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 3: isn't going to liver for them, then they've got to 164 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 3: really show great leadership and make us all feel secure 165 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 3: and confident that they are the people will get us 166 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 3: through this crisis. And so that probably is where the 167 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 3: way they strategically moved yesterday when that data came through 168 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 3: and it just wasn't what they wanted to see. 169 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 2: I would say, do you think that the public sort 170 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 2: of feels reassured by the messaging that's coming out out 171 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 2: of the government. 172 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 3: It's very, very difficult, and I hesitate to say that. 173 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 3: I think Nikola Willis is doing a really good job. 174 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 3: She seems to be taking the lead. But they have to, 175 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 3: you know, and everybody's got a different appetite for how 176 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 3: worried they tend to feel emotively or you know, how 177 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 3: pessimistic or optimistic they are. The government has to make 178 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 3: it very clear that they're preparing for a worst case 179 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 3: scenario without wanting to go into gory details about the 180 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 3: worst case scenario, because that panics people. You know, I 181 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 3: think people have a very emotive fear of petrol running 182 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,560 Speaker 3: out and queuing at gas stations and that sort of thing. 183 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 4: All petrol stations say it's hard to get past that. 184 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 3: While there's this big uncertainty in the next few weeks, 185 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,839 Speaker 3: I don't think that really is going to be the 186 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 3: big issue long term. I think there's enough oil in 187 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 3: the world, there's logistical problems moving it around the world 188 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,439 Speaker 3: that may come to a crunch for a few weeks while, 189 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 3: you know, and then longer term, either the war will 190 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 3: will pass or if it didn't, if you know, if 191 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 3: there was a worst case scenario where the straight Straight 192 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 3: of hor Moos didn't open, then the world would find 193 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 3: a way to shift that oil around in the longer term. So, 194 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 3: you know, I don't think it's that kind of like 195 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 3: back to Mad Max kind of scenario which people immediately 196 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 3: think of and having to you know, fight, you know, 197 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 3: fill up Jerry cans and fight for fight for petrol. 198 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 3: The issue is probably more acute around the pricing. And again, 199 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 3: while it feels really bad at an individual level we're 200 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 3: filling up the car, it's it's it's more likely to 201 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 3: be an issue around things like diesel, which is the 202 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 3: transport costs for all our food and everything we buy, 203 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 3: and that means it feeds into overall inflation. In the economy, 204 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 3: and that's really bad news because it's already you know, 205 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:15,199 Speaker 3: we've already got quite high inflation, and so it sort 206 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 3: of puts a real squeeze on the recovery that we 207 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 3: were looking for, you know, in the longer term, and 208 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:24,679 Speaker 3: that's probably what's unavoidable, and somehow we're going to have 209 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:25,439 Speaker 3: to manage. 210 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 4: Our way through. 211 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 5: We acknowledge that these price increases are impacting every New Zealander, 212 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 5: but it would be at this point irresponsible for us 213 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,439 Speaker 5: to help every New Zealander because New Zealand still faces 214 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 5: two key issues. One, if the government spends too much 215 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 5: right now, we will lead to higher inflation and more 216 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 5: price surges across the economy, which could lead us into 217 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 5: a vicious spiral. The second issue is that we are 218 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 5: now looking at a far more unstable world and what 219 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 5: it means, and you can see already in financial markets, 220 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 5: is that the price of borrowing internationally is already increasing. 221 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:07,320 Speaker 5: New Zealand as a small country. 222 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 2: Nichola Willis has said that, you know, all signs so 223 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 2: far indicate that we're in a pretty good position in 224 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:23,479 Speaker 2: terms of the impact of the conflict on the economy. 225 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 2: Of course, with the caveat that it depends on what 226 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 2: sort of level of disruption it eventuates and the duration 227 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,959 Speaker 2: of it. So it's a little bit like, yes, we're 228 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 2: standing okay, but we can't really tell you. 229 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 1: It's very hard to take reassurance from that. 230 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 2: And as you talk about the prices at the pump, 231 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 2: it just feels like blow after blow after blow, just 232 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 2: when we were maybe seeing some signs of you know, 233 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 2: green shreet. 234 00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a big psychological blow in terms of for 235 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 3: New Zealand as a whole. You know that the COVID thing, 236 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 3: and then you know the inflation coming out of it, 237 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 3: and then it was always a risk. You take a 238 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 3: long time to have a recovery and get the economy 239 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 3: into a stable position and the next thing comes along. Well, 240 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 3: the next thing has come along. In some ways, it's 241 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 3: a test of national character. We have to really, you know, 242 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 3: because you don't have a choice. This is the world 243 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 3: we're in and you can make it better or you 244 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:18,439 Speaker 3: can make it worse with the decisions that are made. 245 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 3: It's you know, we've just had this COVID inquiry. I 246 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 3: think there is there is good evidence in that that 247 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 3: we made the long term economic situation worse by over, 248 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 3: you know, like we you know, we never had a 249 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 3: pandemic before, but the predictions in the forecast were far 250 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 3: more catastrophic than what actually emerged. The economy ran okay 251 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 3: even you know, when something which we're not even anywhere 252 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 3: near yet with the idea that we all stay home 253 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 3: shut everything down, you know, that kind of absolutely huge disruption, 254 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 3: we were still able to keep the economy running and 255 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 3: running quite well. So I think it's important that we 256 00:12:56,360 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 3: don't catastrophize. And I've been reassured by Nikola are sort 257 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 3: of just stepping back from rushing in with pouring and 258 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 3: government money that we don't have. She may look at 259 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 3: some targeted support for people who are really really struggling 260 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 3: and can't find other ways to get to work and 261 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:15,679 Speaker 3: all that sort of stuff, and making sure that all 262 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 3: our essential services are working. But we just don't have 263 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 3: a lot of money after COVID to sort of pour 264 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 3: in the way we did. And I think you'll see 265 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 3: a similar sort of response from the Reserve Bank, just 266 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 3: kind of breathing and looking through it for a while, 267 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 3: because it's just there's a risk in reacting too quickly 268 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 3: to something that and then therefore doing more damage. Yeah. 269 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's not really a case of the government 270 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 2: and not going to step in. It's just that they're saying, 271 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 2: hang on, it's just take stock, see how things go 272 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 2: as the set day upon day and kind of go 273 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 2: from there, right. 274 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, and just trying to manage the concern of the public. 275 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,560 Speaker 3: That is very natural. I feel it's a motive you 276 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 3: kind of extrapolate to what happens if, what happens if 277 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 3: and you know, like the media love us, of course, 278 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 3: but you know the commentators who there's always a worst 279 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 3: case scenario. So people say, you know, Treasury had a 280 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 3: worst case scenario that Nicola willis referred to, that had 281 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 3: inflation going to three point seven percent, and people were 282 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 3: very quick to say, all, that doesn't sound like a 283 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 3: worst case scenario, and there could be a worst case 284 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 3: scenario than that, And yeah, there could be, but there 285 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 3: always could be. 286 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 4: We could always go one better. 287 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 3: We could always say, oh, oil oil could go to 288 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 3: two hundred dollars us of barrel and petrol could go 289 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 3: to four dollars, Well, then why not just go for 290 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 3: three hundred dollars a barrel and five dollars a later. 291 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 3: You know, there's not much point in speculating to the 292 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 3: point that it just all becomes sort of you know, 293 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 3: super gloomy. 294 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, and potentially scaremongering. 295 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 4: Right Yeah. 296 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 2: At the same time, you know, you want to have 297 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 2: kind of a seat a realistic you need to have 298 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 2: some plans in place, I guess even on an vidual level, 299 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 2: for Okay, hopefully the worst doesn't happen. If it does happen, though, 300 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 2: I need to make sure that me and my family 301 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 2: are all sorted and that we can cover all our 302 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 2: costs because people are living week to week. Yeah, petrol 303 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 2: prices do make a big difference. So on that individual level, 304 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 2: you know, what would you say to like an individual 305 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 2: listener or viewer right now. 306 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 3: Well, I think think about fuel consumption and it's looking 307 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 3: for anywhere that you can save because that works collectively 308 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 3: as well. So collectively we could save a lot of 309 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 3: you know, basically a lot of a petrol consumption as 310 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 3: a society if we if we cut down on non 311 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 3: essential trips, the one that I keep hearing about because 312 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 3: you know, we immediately went to Carlos Days with the 313 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 3: discussion and they were terrible. I've had a reader, you know, 314 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 3: contact me this week just making the point and actually 315 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 3: giving me all the maths and the physics of it, 316 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 3: which was quite good. But you know, speed at which 317 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 3: we drive, you know, and the government could and they 318 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 3: did during that crunch in the late seventies drop the 319 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 3: speed speed limits. So if you drop, use an exponentially 320 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 3: larger amount of fuel between eighty and one hundred than 321 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 3: what you get out of it in terms of how 322 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 3: much extra speed you get, you know, So driving slower 323 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 3: and just all these things, they're just little measures to 324 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 3: reduce fuel consumption that add up across a whole population. 325 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 3: I guess, yeah. But on an individual level, it's tough 326 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 3: if you've got no other choices. But if you've got choices, 327 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 3: I would say, you know, just really consider how much 328 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 3: you're using, how you can get around it, where public 329 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 3: transport might work, you know, or just trips you don't 330 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 3: have to make, or car pooling that sort of thing. 331 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 3: Maybe we do need to look at going back to 332 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 3: working from home a bit more, where possible, and where 333 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 3: workplaces are open to it. I don't think it's a 334 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 3: sort of hard and fast, you know, we're locking down scenario, 335 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 3: But you know, just a day a week or something 336 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 3: would make a difference At this point, it's just slowing 337 00:16:56,560 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 3: the amount the rate at which we're getting through. All 338 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 3: good for your own household budget and good for the 339 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:06,400 Speaker 3: nation as we sort of try and manage our way 340 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 3: through what looks like the next next, you know, curious 341 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 3: next few weeks is we just don't know. It's a 342 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 3: situation we haven't seen before in terms of, you know what, 343 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 3: how much oil is going to get through. 344 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 1: It's a real economy a scale thing, isn't it. 345 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 2: Those individuals will a team of five million you could say, yeah. 346 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 4: All those slogans. Probably, I don't know. It's a hard one. 347 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,679 Speaker 3: But but but leadership is important at that point, and 348 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 3: I think so the government has talked about going to 349 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 3: you know, the next step would be some sort of 350 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 3: public information campaign along those lines. I guess there's no 351 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 3: reason why they couldn't start that now except maybe just 352 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 3: not wanting to panic people. So you've got to you've 353 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 3: got to walk that line between not panicking people. You know, 354 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 3: the petrol is in the country at the moment, we 355 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 3: don't We're not assuming that there's not going to be 356 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 3: petrol in the country. That maybe a need for some 357 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 3: sort of reduction of consumption and that's where they would 358 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 3: have to make that call. 359 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 2: I mean, the economy has always been a strength of Nationals, 360 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 2: their positioning, their work on the economy. It's been a 361 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:16,680 Speaker 2: pretty rough term for them in terms of how things 362 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 2: have gone. Do you think they're still protecting their ground 363 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 2: as they should be? Do you think that they're you know. 364 00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,159 Speaker 4: Well, it's tough. I mean, it's certainly. 365 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:29,680 Speaker 3: I mean, I'd say it's probably contested by labor as 366 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,120 Speaker 3: to whether National is as strong as it's their job, 367 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 3: but is certainly their brand. You know, they've talked about growth, growth, growth, 368 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:40,359 Speaker 3: and now that growth is looking pretty pretty fragile. I think, 369 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 3: you know it is. It is worrying that the growth 370 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 3: was so weak in that fourth quarter. There's just areas 371 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 3: where the economy isn't firing. That seemed to be to 372 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:56,959 Speaker 3: do with confidence and a sense of, you know, trust 373 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 3: that people can get on with investing. And that's really 374 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 3: where Christopher Luxen talked even in opposition, about bringing the 375 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,399 Speaker 3: mojo back, and that's where I think it is his 376 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 3: job to deliver and I think that's where it's been 377 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 3: falling short. 378 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 2: Well, do you think our mojo is at the moment 379 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 2: on a scale of one to ten deformation. 380 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:18,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I just don't think it was just creeping back. 381 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 4: I don't know. 382 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's probably about pretty yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm not 383 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 3: sure we've ever been a really hugely mojo based nation anyway. 384 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 4: To be honest. 385 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 2: But I'm curious about your mojo though, Lamb, because you 386 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 2: you know, as I mentioned earlier, you are our eternal optimist. 387 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 2: You'll come in here, we'll get bad news after bad news, 388 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,359 Speaker 2: you'll say, I have hope. I have hope. 389 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, you're getting out of hope. 390 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I always have hoped that things keep going. 391 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 3: I mean, you know, in New Zealand, I mean you 392 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 3: can get quite catastrophic. I grew up in the eighties 393 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:56,119 Speaker 3: when we were all worried about Nuclear War one all 394 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 3: that sort of stuff, and you're like, well, we've got 395 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 3: food we grow and produce an export food and there's 396 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 3: a demand for that around the world. That money's going 397 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:08,719 Speaker 3: to keep coming in. New Zealand has a strong degree 398 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 3: of social cohesion, and you know, things work. I'm pretty 399 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 3: optimistic too that this is not a COVID scenario, that 400 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 3: this is a shorter term thing than that, because in 401 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,360 Speaker 3: the end, I did think that We're in a situation 402 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 3: where Donald Trump could just declear victory when it started 403 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 3: to look bad in the polls in the States, and 404 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,119 Speaker 3: may still do so and then just back off. But 405 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 3: it's got a bit more complicated than that. He's claimed 406 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 3: he's wiped out one hundred percent of Iran's navy and 407 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 3: air force, and there's a saw a line on the 408 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,080 Speaker 3: Economist the other day. They're doing pretty well with the 409 00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 3: other zero percent because they're still they're still heading targets 410 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 3: and causing problems. So he's made some big claims they 411 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 3: aren't true. Iran has a say and when this war ends, 412 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 3: and so it has to be negotiated at this point, and. 413 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 2: He has an unpredictable fellow, well doesn't he. You really 414 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 2: never really know what tomorrow is going to bring. 415 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 3: No, but he is, you know, to this point, he's 416 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 3: been rained in by markets. Equity markets and bond markets 417 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 3: have tended to rain them in more than anything. And 418 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 3: actually they've held up that they're down, but they've held 419 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:20,679 Speaker 3: up better than you might have thought. He's you know 420 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,119 Speaker 3: that the more serious US economic problems that will come 421 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,880 Speaker 3: from this take longer to flow through, so he may 422 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 3: be still sticking to his original four or five week 423 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 3: time frame something like that. You know, look, if it's 424 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,640 Speaker 3: resolved in a few weeks, we still have this problem 425 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 3: of all that supply shop inflation flowing through, so it's 426 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 3: still going to be an issue for the economy. But 427 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,919 Speaker 3: it's hard to see how an air war like this 428 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 3: just carries on for a whole for a year or 429 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 3: becomes It's not like troops on the ground. 430 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 1: It's self limiting in a way. 431 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 4: Yeah. 432 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:53,959 Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not an expert on the geopolitics, but 433 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 3: that that stuff keeps me reasonably optimistic. He's limited, Yeah, 434 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,360 Speaker 3: in terms of how much the US domestic politics will 435 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 3: will tolerate and his approval rating. I think he would 436 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:10,120 Speaker 3: want to have the whole thing done, dusted and through 437 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 3: this curve of higher oil prices well before the US 438 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 3: midterms get in too serious gear. So you know, those 439 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 3: politics in the States have got to be a factor. 440 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, he also needs to think about the ballroom. How's 441 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 1: that going? 442 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 2: You know? 443 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,719 Speaker 4: Yeah, we didn't have a good dates on the ballroom. 444 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 3: We've lost focus on all sorts of wild and crazy 445 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:31,640 Speaker 3: things that are happening in the States. 446 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 6: This morning, I received a briefing from the ministers and 447 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:42,720 Speaker 6: the officials on our situation in the Middle East. The 448 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,160 Speaker 6: extent of the impact and the conflict on our economy 449 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 6: will depend on its duration and intensity. Obviously we're already 450 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,400 Speaker 6: seeing higher petrol prices and it's understandable that Kiwis will 451 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,439 Speaker 6: be concerned about the pressure on their household budgets. And 452 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,640 Speaker 6: as our fuel stocks updated yesterday, New Zealand has sufficient 453 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 6: fuel supplies. But I do want to be straight with 454 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 6: New Zealanders. Things could get worse before they actually. 455 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 2: Get better, just a little bit closer to home, and 456 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 2: playing devil's advocate a little bit, you know, was obviously 457 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 2: extremely disruptive, it's terrible, it's not great for the economy anywhere. 458 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 2: But is it potentially a timey, little nice scapegoat for 459 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 2: the national government in terms of you know, things potentially 460 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 2: not being so great on the economic front and being 461 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 2: able to go that's why Yeah, well. 462 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:36,119 Speaker 3: I mean after that GDP result, i'd say more so 463 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 3: than I had thought. But that does put the onus 464 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 3: on them to really to deliver on the leadership and 465 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 3: you know that has to really resonate with the public. 466 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,439 Speaker 3: And obviously, you know, it was a game of two 467 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,439 Speaker 3: halves COVID. We saw huge success with the Labor government 468 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,639 Speaker 3: and just under I do just absolutely hitting the mark 469 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 3: and winning an election outright and all that sort of stuff. 470 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:02,000 Speaker 3: And then on the other side, you know, collapse of confidence. 471 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 3: So you know, a crisis can be good for a 472 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,880 Speaker 3: political for political leaders if they if they manage it well, 473 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 3: it remains to be seen. We you know, we're in 474 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 3: a situation where it is the coming weeks, the next 475 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 3: you know, I would say the next month that are 476 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,120 Speaker 3: going to be a real crunch point. 477 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 1: It's going to be a really interesting election year, that's 478 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 1: for sure. 479 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 2: And you know, I can't help but think that all 480 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 2: of this news coming into it because this is today's story. 481 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,400 Speaker 2: Tomorrow there'll be some other story rolling out, moving pretty fast. 482 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 3: They're moving feasts as well, like you know, they'll have 483 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 3: to reassess them and reassess them of something else, something 484 00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 3: else bad happens or but like you know, to me, 485 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 3: even oil markets are relatively reassuring at the moment as 486 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,240 Speaker 3: we speak. You know, on Friday afternoon, oils trading at 487 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 3: about one hundred and one hundred and seven U S 488 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 3: dollars dollars a barrel. You know, I've seen scary headlines 489 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 3: about it going to two hundred dollars a barrel, Well, 490 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,000 Speaker 3: you know what what would cause it to almost double 491 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,480 Speaker 3: because the people doing the trading, with all the analysis 492 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,119 Speaker 3: and everything, they can see all the risk, you know 493 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 3: that they can price in. You know what is what 494 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 3: are the worst case, worst case scenarios straight off hor 495 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 3: moos just doesn't open again. There's a sort of a 496 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 3: you know, a stand off there that has never resolved. 497 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 3: You know, more strikes on or refineries. We've had that 498 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:19,639 Speaker 3: this week. 499 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,280 Speaker 2: So are they already kind of including there in their 500 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:23,119 Speaker 2: kind of their pricing. 501 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:24,919 Speaker 1: I think, you know, the. 502 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 3: Center jods odds on it, and then that will move. 503 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 3: And so I'm not saying you couldn't see oil prices 504 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,160 Speaker 3: rise further. But what we've seen when bad things happen 505 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 3: is that they've spiked up to one hundred and twelve 506 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 3: hundred and nineteen. It would take an almighty doozy of 507 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 3: something bad happening to get it up to two hundred. 508 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 3: You know, the difficulty of being optimist is you can 509 00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,359 Speaker 3: never say never. You not say, oh, look it's all 510 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 3: going to be fine. But I'm looking at them thinking, gee, 511 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:52,919 Speaker 3: given the amount of risk, that we're aware of. 512 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 4: This is the. 513 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 3: You know, they're non unknowns, you know, so the unknown 514 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:03,680 Speaker 3: unknowns and nonnowns. To some extent, this war. 515 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 4: Was an unknown unknown. It wasn't on anyone, you know, 516 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:06,640 Speaker 4: it could have been. 517 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 3: There's reasons why you could see see a possibility of 518 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,159 Speaker 3: an a war of the run, but what's happened at the 519 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 3: scale wasn't really on anyone's been go card. But at 520 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,560 Speaker 3: this point we know what's happened, we can see what 521 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,399 Speaker 3: could go wrong from here, and you can sort of 522 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,159 Speaker 3: price that in to some extent, you know. And so 523 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 3: I think that's why I just, you know, become obsessive 524 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 3: watching markets and watching how far they go on bad news, 525 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 3: how far they come back on on what is usually 526 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 3: Donald Trump saying something more positive. But yeah, and at 527 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,159 Speaker 3: the moment they aren't catastrophic. The price thing isn't catastrophic. 528 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 3: I'm a little nervous like everyone about supply and the 529 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 3: tankers reaching, you know, getting through to South Korea and 530 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,239 Speaker 3: Singapore and getting refined and them selling it to us 531 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,040 Speaker 3: and US having enough for those for those tight few weeks. 532 00:26:55,040 --> 00:27:00,919 Speaker 3: But yeah, otherwise I remain reasonably optimistic. 533 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 2: I'm pleased to hear that you haven't been trodden down 534 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 2: completely just yet Liam, And hopefully next time we have 535 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 2: you on the show, we'll have some more good news, 536 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 2: maybe bigger good news than point. 537 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,120 Speaker 4: It's always a bad sign when you're getting me in regularly. 538 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,199 Speaker 2: This is just one, as we said, one of the 539 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 2: many stories that we'll be rolling up. We're following your 540 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:20,119 Speaker 2: coverage very closely. 541 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Liam. 542 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 4: Dav for joining us. 543 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You 544 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 545 00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:35,199 Speaker 2: at inzidherld dot co dot inzet. This episode of the 546 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 2: Front Page was hosted and produced by me jane Ye Caine. 547 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,719 Speaker 2: Dicky is our studio operator, and Richard Martin is our 548 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 2: producer and editor. Follow the Front Page on the iHeart 549 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 2: app or wherever you get your podcasts, and join us 550 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 2: next time for another look beyond the headlines.