1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,880 Speaker 1: Right jobs. Where are we at the economies providing excellent data? 2 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: So far? There's year confidence manufacturing services or good numbers 3 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: for employment. To round out the USO sale, we'll add 4 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:11,400 Speaker 1: volumes of down zero point three applications with Joba down 5 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,319 Speaker 1: zero point one. Taranaki's hot construction looks increasingly strong and 6 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: Nick Brunsdon is the principal economist it Informetrics sanders with 7 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:22,439 Speaker 1: us Nick morning, Is zero point three a thing? Or 8 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 1: can we say it's broadly flat? 9 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 2: I would call it broadly flat, and it was positive 10 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 2: over the previous six months, but I would still call 11 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: that broadly flat. 12 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:33,560 Speaker 1: So we can't read it because my next part of 13 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 1: that was is December a thing? In other words, we 14 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: all want to go away for Christmas? So why would 15 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,199 Speaker 1: we hire anyone? Is that part of the equation. 16 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 2: Or not in terms of the month and month, Yes, 17 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,520 Speaker 2: but it did show that that trend we saw increase 18 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,959 Speaker 2: them through twenty five, the tail off a little bit 19 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 2: in December, so that will be a little bit. Yeah. 20 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: Big question is five point three it and we're on 21 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: the downward slide and getting better? I think so. 22 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 2: I mean the job adways in December, but we have 23 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: seen that from for example, the AMZ business outlocks. Surveyed 24 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 2: businesses are more keen to hire, and coming into twenty six, 25 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 2: we've seen employment hasn't has stopped declining. So everything is positive, 26 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 2: it's just not showing that we're in a raw and 27 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 2: recovery just yet. 28 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: No, is it a slow burn. My fear is capacity 29 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 1: for this country, whether we can even if we wanted to, 30 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: do we have the wherewithal to get up and running 31 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 1: or is there a bit of a potential stall or 32 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: slow burn on when it comes to jobs. 33 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not sure that the supply is going 34 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 2: to be the constraint. You know that on the demand side, 35 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 2: the demand to hire a lot of people just isn't there. 36 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 2: We're not expecting it to be a really quick recovery, 37 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 2: so I don't think a lack of people is going 38 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 2: to hold us back. And and you know, with that 39 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 2: five point three percent unemployment right, we do have a 40 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 2: fair bit of fair capacity. We're still getting four times 41 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 2: as many applicants for jobs on seek as we were 42 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 2: three years ago, so there's still a lot of people 43 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 2: looking for work. 44 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: The sector variability, is there anything in that construction, good, retail? 45 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: Not so much. 46 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, construction's good and that's great. It is a big employer, 47 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 2: especially in areas like Auckland, but it's coming from a 48 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 2: very low base and it's had a really rough time 49 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 2: for the last couple of years. Retails a bit more 50 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 2: side layer as well, that's okay. To manufacturing's showing some 51 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 2: really positive sign which is really encouraging. Again, that's a 52 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 2: really key sector employing a lot of people, especially in 53 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 2: big centers like Auckland. 54 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: Okay. The most important economic marker, of course is the 55 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: Nick Brunston view of twenty twenty six of you bullish 56 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: or not. 57 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 2: Positive? Weekly positive? 58 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, weekly positive, in absolutely waveringly positive. 59 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 2: I wouldn't waiver on that. But yeah, it's not going 60 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 2: to be a roaring recovery in twenty six. 61 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: All right, mane, nice to appreciate it. Nick Brunston, whose 62 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: principal economist leads demographer as well at Inframentary. For more 63 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: from the Mic Casking Breakfast, listen live to news talks. 64 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 1: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast 65 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.