1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,719 Speaker 1: Thomas Coglan, the Herald's political editor, is in for Barry Sober, 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: who's off for the week writing his book. 3 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:06,880 Speaker 2: Thomas, Hello, here, a good afternoon. 4 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 1: Now, what do you think of this key we saver announcement? 5 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: Seems to me like quite smart politics. 6 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 2: Yes, I think it's smart politics. I think it's good 7 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 2: policy as well. I mean, the key we saver in 8 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: general retirement savings in New Zealand there's a bit of 9 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 2: a dog. It has been a dog since the nineteen 10 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 2: seventies when we when we got rid of the contributory scheme. 11 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: We do need to lift it to twelve percent. Obviously, 12 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 2: it's going to be a it will be a bit 13 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: of a bumpy ride getting it there. There'll be some 14 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 2: employers who will take that extra that extra point five 15 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 2: percent each year out of your paypacket and the total 16 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 2: remuneration package, which I know you've been talking about today. 17 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:41,840 Speaker 2: So that's something I think I think Labor is probably 18 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: going to try and look at. But the rest of 19 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 2: the policy is pretty sound. We need to do it 20 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,160 Speaker 2: and for all, for all the bumps along the way, 21 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 2: it's it's probably something that that's worth doing. 22 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 1: I mean, we need to be honest though that in 23 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: the long run, it's going to depress wages, isn't it, 24 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: because because they when somebody offers you a job, they 25 00:00:57,280 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: are going to consider the cost of key we saver here. 26 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 2: Yeah exactly, And I mean, you know you're probably sick 27 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 2: of hearing it from everyone. But the only way to 28 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 2: get wages to grow is productivity, and productivity has been 29 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,199 Speaker 2: an absolute turkey in New Zealand for a long time. 30 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 2: So yes, this if this, if we can't get the 31 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 2: productivity question solved, then then this will come from from 32 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 2: people's wages, no question about it. 33 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: I can't imagine anybody is going to vote for National 34 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,639 Speaker 1: for it. It's not a vote attractor, it's not necessary. 35 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: It's definitely not a vote repellent, is it. Is it 36 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 1: maybe just a credibility policy. 37 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: I do. I think obviously we had those polls that 38 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,199 Speaker 2: the EPSOS poll last week which had the questions around 39 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:35,479 Speaker 2: economic management. For National, they do need something to say 40 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 2: on economic management. They are also probably going to run 41 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 2: on raising the superade again because they really have a 42 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 2: fiscal issue there. If they're not raising the superage, then 43 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 2: it's really hard to see how they're going to pay 44 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 2: for public services are going forward because that superade thing 45 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 2: is a real issue, so they need something. If you're 46 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 2: going to lift the superrade, you need to be able 47 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 2: to say, well, look here's what we're doing to try 48 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 2: and and really get some of the heavy lifting off 49 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 2: superannuation national suparation as far as the retirement costco. And 50 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 2: I suppose it is a way of just neutralizing that 51 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 2: question them. 52 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, fair point. Okay, Now have you seen this Taxpayer's 53 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,079 Speaker 1: Union Curier poll about labor CGT. 54 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 2: Yes, I have. It's a very interesting poll. So obviously 55 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 2: Labour CGT twenty eight percent on profits made after one 56 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 2: July twenty twenty seven for property excluding the family home 57 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 2: and a bunch of other things. Now, obviously, you know 58 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 2: house prices go up by five six percent of the years, 59 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 2: that is what the forecast is. The inflation rate is 60 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 2: a wee bit lower than that, and usually you know, 61 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 2: two to three percent of the year going forward is 62 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 2: what we're forecasting. So some of the tex, some of 63 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 2: the money that Labour's CGT would bring in, it's just inflation. 64 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:43,239 Speaker 2: So basically the government is clipping the ticket, and the 65 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 2: governments slipping the ticket when it fails to get inflation 66 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:47,919 Speaker 2: under control. So there's a wee bit of a a 67 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 2: perverse incenter of there sixty one percent of New Zealanders 68 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 2: want the text if there were a text for it 69 00:02:55,200 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 2: only applied to inflation adjusted gains, whereas where student namecent 70 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 2: what real gains, and it's actually labor voters are the 71 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 2: ones who are most against it. 72 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 1: Okay, Now, do you think at the moment labor is 73 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: going for real gains? Do you think that they will 74 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 1: be pressured into adjusting it and going for inflation adjusted I. 75 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 2: Do not think so. I think I think they need 76 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 2: the money labor, labor labor. At the moment their election 77 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,519 Speaker 2: policy lots to be. It's a very cost of living 78 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 2: affordability affordability mandate. And so you're looking at GP visits. 79 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 2: You know, who knows they might slap dental here onto 80 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 2: that med card. They've got a few other things onto 81 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 2: that medic card. They are kind of looking at things 82 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 2: and thinking, how can we make that cheat for people? 83 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 2: How can we make that free for people? That probably 84 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 2: meant in the most cases, means subsidies. And if you 85 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 2: are going to subsidize stuff, then you've got to text 86 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 2: people to pay for it. And so they really need 87 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 2: this revenue coming in and they cannot afford to reduce it. 88 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 2: And let's face it, if you were to take some 89 00:03:56,400 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 2: inflation inflation off your CDT, then you probably going to 90 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 2: have the revenue because we're not expecting massive house price 91 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 2: breath anymore. That is a thing of the past. So 92 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 2: if you're not taking inflation, then there's really not a 93 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 2: lovely if they're for you. 94 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: Okay, listen, I see that you've written over the weekend 95 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: like I have about the you know, the chatter about 96 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,559 Speaker 1: Luckson's leadership. What do you think, Thomas, what's the most 97 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: likely outcome. Are the MP's in national going to choose 98 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,160 Speaker 1: to stick with Labor with Luckson sorry, or are they 99 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 1: going to choose to switch to Bishop. 100 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 2: What's a bit of a Freudian slip there, I guess, 101 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 2: like if you're stick with Luxon, now you're sticking with Labor. 102 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 2: I know, a real question, I know, but you know, 103 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 2: if it's what everyone is thinking, it's I honestly think 104 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 2: he might be quite lucky with the timing. If you 105 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 2: are going to Roland, then you probably want to do 106 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 2: it the side of Christmas. You've probably only got two 107 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 2: more public poles. The side of Christmas. You've got the 108 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 2: Textpayers Union in December and they'll probably be elit to 109 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 2: Torbert Mills. Now, those poles would have to be really, 110 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 2: really bad, and you know, well really bad, being worse 111 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 2: than they already are. They would have to be really 112 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 2: bad for you to justify rolling them. I think at 113 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 2: the moment there's a little bit of kite fl going on. 114 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 2: It doesn't look like there's a formal coup, it doesn't 115 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,919 Speaker 2: look like anything is actually sort of happening, but I 116 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:09,559 Speaker 2: think there is a bit of chin stroking and people 117 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:11,919 Speaker 2: sort of saying, well, you know, if there were to 118 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 2: be a leadership change, if you were to imagine Chris 119 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:18,280 Speaker 2: Bishop in the ninth floor suite, what would you think 120 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 2: of that? And I think people are sort of flying 121 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 2: kites just to sort of see how that looks without 122 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 2: it actually being a genuine. 123 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: Thing, right, Thomas. Thank you, Thomas Coglan The Herald's political 124 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:27,720 Speaker 1: letters Up. 125 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to 126 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 2: news Talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 127 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.