1 00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:06,080 Speaker 1: The Rural Report on Hither Duper see Allen Drive, Jamie 2 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:08,119 Speaker 1: McKay's with Us host of the Country, Jamie, Good Evening, 3 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: Good day, Ryan. So is a nine dollars milk price 4 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: on the cards for twenty five twenty six? What do 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: we think? Well, it's not what I think or you really, Ryan, 6 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 1: it's probably what the experts think. And having just read 7 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: and reviewed the Rabobank Q four Global Dairy Quarterly Report, 8 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: a one sentence hit me right between the eyes. This 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: was authored, by the way, by Emma Higgins, who's their 10 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 1: senior ag analyst. She wrote, there is elevated risk that 11 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 1: the farm gate milk price moves lower across the course 12 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: of the season, which would mean that the final season 13 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 1: payout lands around the nine dollars per kilogram of milk 14 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: solid mark. So that's not a great number when we 15 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: started the season with a ten dollar fore cast. Of course, 16 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: Fonterra has since trimmed that to nine dollars fifty. But 17 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: if it gets down to nine dollars, well, you know, 18 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: the margins are getting a bit skinnier there. Because yesterday 19 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:08,320 Speaker 1: Dairy and Z came out with their Econ tracker, which 20 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 1: is their tool for working out how much it costs 21 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: to produce milk, and they're saying the break even price 22 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: is eight fifty. So you know, look, ten dollars is great, 23 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 1: Nine dollars fifty is okay. Nine dollars jury's out a 24 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: wee bit on that one. We've still got a long 25 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: way to go. But the reason all this has happened, Ryan, 26 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: and this is in the Global Dairy quarterly report as well, 27 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: is because of stunning that's the word they've used, stunning 28 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: global milk production growth across the second half of twenty 29 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 1: twenty five. Right around the world, the EU and e 30 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 1: K and UK should I say, have posted their strongest 31 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 1: growth since twenty seventeen. For the month of October, US 32 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:52,279 Speaker 1: milk flows posted their fifth consecutive month of growth rates 33 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: over three percent. Here in New Zealand, we're tacking along 34 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: at about three point four percent ahead of where we 35 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: were last year. The Big seven, that's the EU, the US, US, Australia, Brazil, 36 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: Argentina and Uruguay forecast to finish twenty twenty five up 37 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: two point two percent year on here. So the guts 38 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 1: of it all, Ryan, is, you know, the milk price 39 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 1: has gone up. People around the world, especially in places 40 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: like the States where grain prices are low, have just 41 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: moved their production from feeding stuff to feeding other stuff, 42 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: basically dairy cows, and therein lies the problem and then 43 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: all the milk comes on tap. Now our national lamcrop 44 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:37,519 Speaker 1: for this season is up a bit on the previous Yeah, 45 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: this is sort of a this is a really good 46 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 1: news story, to be honest, Ryan, if you remember back 47 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: and you're far too young to remember back to the 48 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: nineteen eighties, but when Rob Muldoon was in power and 49 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: we had farming subsidies on a national sheep flock peaked 50 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: at about over seventy million. Now we've got about twenty 51 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 1: three million, twenty three or twenty four million, so we're 52 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: well more than half. But the national lamb crop is 53 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 1: going to be nineteen point six six million according to 54 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,360 Speaker 1: the Beef and Lamb New Zealand latest lamb crop Report. 55 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: That's up about two hundred thousand lambs on last season. 56 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 1: But the good news part of the story is a 57 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 1: the lambing percentage has improved a whole lot one hundred 58 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: and thirty one point one percent average across the country. 59 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: That's amazing when you consider some of the land that 60 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 1: they're farming on with these sheep sheep farms, and that's 61 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 1: off the back of one point nine percent reduction and 62 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: breeding you numbers. So the number of lambs processed is 63 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: probably going to be in line with last year, which 64 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 1: was down a million on the year before. And part 65 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 1: of the reason for that is even though we've got 66 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: more lambs, we're only going to process about the same amount. 67 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: That's because some of those lambs born are going to 68 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: be retained as you lambs to rebuild the breeding flock. 69 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: Global lamb supply remains constrained, supported by an expected five 70 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: point eight percent reduction in Australian lamb export availability and 71 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: continued low New Zealand supply. The guts of all this 72 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: is that farm gate prices are at historically high levels 73 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: and probably will remain there at least for this season. 74 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 1: Here's the final number for you, Ryan, lamb is now 75 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:26,719 Speaker 1: eleven dollars a kilo. Milk or milk price could be 76 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: as low as nine dollars a kilo. It's not often 77 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: that lamb exceeds, deary, it's a while since we've seen that, 78 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,919 Speaker 1: So watch this space certainly will Jamie. Thank you for that. 79 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: Jamie McKay, host of the Country Here on news Talk 80 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 1: SeeDB For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drave, Listen live 81 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 1: to News Talk said Be from four pm weekdays, or 82 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 1: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.