1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,279 Speaker 1: Someone hit the alarm bell. Will your new data shows 2 00:00:02,279 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 1: we're on track to hit one trillion in national debt 3 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:08,399 Speaker 1: within three years. Current debt stands at eight hundred and 4 00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:11,720 Speaker 1: seventy billion. This is across both private and public on average, 5 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: that's about one hundred and sixty three thousand per key we. 6 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 1: Brad Elson is Infametric's principle economist with us this morning. Brad, 7 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,799 Speaker 1: good morning, Good morning. It's I mean, it sounds an 8 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: alarming figure, is it. 9 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 2: I mean, it always feels alarming when you're sort of 10 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 2: talking in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and it is. 11 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,199 Speaker 2: But I think as well, this is the money that 12 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 2: we often are using for a lot of quite important purposes. 13 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 2: This is what people are using when they get a 14 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,160 Speaker 2: mortgage to buy a house. It's what the government uses 15 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 2: to invest in critical infrastructure. It's what businesses use to 16 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 2: invest in new plant and equipment. So it does sound 17 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 2: like a scary number, but it is important in many ways. 18 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 2: The challenges is our debt sustainable? Not necessarily if it's 19 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 2: big or small or anything else. And I guess on 20 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 2: metric it's fascinating to see that. You know, yes, we've 21 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 2: continued to see it grow that in recent times it 22 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 2: has been growing at a slower pace, and I think 23 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: that that's part of this or almost sort of economic 24 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 2: right sizing that we're seeing at the moment as we 25 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 2: go through that sort of post COVID hangover period for government, 26 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,479 Speaker 2: for businesses, for households, everyone's going just how much debt 27 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 2: do I need? How much can I afford? And what 28 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 2: does that all mean coming out the other side. 29 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: Also, we've had house prices that are either falling or flat, 30 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: which means you're not borrowing as much, which makes up 31 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: a lot of this right. 32 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 2: Yes, that's definitely true, and I think that's why you've 33 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 2: seen for some of the household figures that things haven't 34 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 2: gotten quite as intense in terms of further growth as 35 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 2: we've seen a couple of years back. You look at 36 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 2: the likes of house prices at the moment still sitting, oh, 37 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 2: what's seventeen twenty percent below their peak. We know as 38 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 2: well that you know, in recent times, people haven't been 39 00:01:57,320 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 2: quite as keen to get out and buy. Yes, has 40 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 2: been a lift and sales over the last year, but 41 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 2: with those lower prices again people just trying to sort 42 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 2: of find the new Goldilocks zone for how much they're 43 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: willing to invest. And I think that the area that 44 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 2: I found most interesting was you look into some of 45 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 2: those sort of business investment figures, and that's an area 46 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 2: where you do generally actually want a bit more growth. 47 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 2: You don't want it to be completely unstoppable, but you 48 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 2: want to know that businesses are comfortable have access to 49 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 2: capital so they can invest, you know, in new manufacturing 50 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 2: techniques and new technology so that we can get more 51 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 2: productive over time. So some concerning numbers in the data, 52 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 2: some optimistic numbers in other places, but overall, yes, the 53 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 2: debt pile is getting bigger, but not at the same 54 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 2: pace it was before. And that's probably not a bad 55 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 2: position to be. 56 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 1: In, in a word, because we are at a time 57 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: bred but how do we compare with the rest of 58 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: the world? 59 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 2: Good, bad, ugly, better but still not comfortable? 60 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: Appreciate your time. Brad Olson, Infametrics, Principle Economist. 61 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 2: For more from early edition with Ryan Bredge, listen live 62 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,959 Speaker 2: to news Talks it be from five am weekdays, or 63 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:05,959 Speaker 2: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.