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Speaker 1: Devin Gray's our UK correspondent, Gavin Good evening, Good evening,

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Speaker 1: right now, you're expecting the worst but hoping for the best.

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Speaker 1: Is anyone seriously expecting an exemption here or do you

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Speaker 1: think that's sort of wishful thinking? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I think that's wish for thinking. Now there's been a

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Speaker 2: real tone, a change in the tone from the Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister and ministers about what they're expecting from so called

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Speaker 2: Liberation Day from Donald Trump and those impending tariffs. And

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Speaker 2: the UK has a pretty similar amount of imports to

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Speaker 2: exports in the US, and therefore it had been hoped

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Speaker 2: unlike the EU, which imports, or rather exports a lot

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Speaker 2: more to America than it imports. There had been hope

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Speaker 2: perhaps that along with this announcement of a trade deal

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Speaker 2: that's expected soon, perhaps the UK would expect to avoid

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Speaker 2: all these tariffs. But it doesn't really sound as though

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Speaker 2: that's going to be possible this way is how will

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Speaker 2: the UK act? The Prime Minister saying there will be

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Speaker 2: no knee jerk reaction, there will be a calm approach,

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Speaker 2: but the EU is looking much much more aggressive, or

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Speaker 2: at least sounding like they're going to be much more

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Speaker 2: aggressive By using retaliatory tariffs almost immediately. This could be

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Speaker 2: a big hit for the UK, a very big hit

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Speaker 2: for the EU as well. Some in the UK suggesting

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Speaker 2: that if a trade war does break out and the

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Speaker 2: UK then imposes tariffs in reverse as it were, that

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Speaker 2: there could be a one percent decline in GDP. So

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Speaker 2: this is huge money. But as I said, at the moment,

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Speaker 2: I think any thought that the UK is going to

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Speaker 2: escape these tariffs completely now seems to be much much

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Speaker 2: more wish for thinking, as this trade deal that's been

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Speaker 2: talked about for so long between the US and the

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Speaker 2: UK since Brexit could finally materialize, but that is looking

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Speaker 2: to take a lot longer than perhaps some hope, which

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Speaker 2: is significant.

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Speaker 1: The one percent things significant, isn't it for the UK?

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Speaker 1: Because you expected to grow But I was looking last

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Speaker 1: night one between one and one point seven percent, depending

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Speaker 1: on which economists you talk to, which exp you talk to.

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Speaker 1: So I mean that could basically take you down to

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Speaker 1: known growth.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, very much so. And not just that, it completely

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Speaker 2: wipes out the fiscal headroom, as it's called, in other words,

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Speaker 2: the spare money which this government is keeping to one

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Speaker 2: side in order to make sure they actually comply with

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Speaker 2: their own rules about borrowing, and so if that headroom,

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Speaker 2: as it were, that spare bit of margin of error

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Speaker 2: is wiped out, then I'm afraid we are going to

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Speaker 2: have to see probably significant cuts to benefits here, but

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Speaker 2: also potentially tax rises that has long been talked about here,

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Speaker 2: and I think these tariffs would certainly mean the government

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Speaker 2: has an excuse then to go for that route too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because where are they going to get the money?

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Speaker 1: The French love approachest, don't they, And there's a new

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Speaker 1: one for Lapin.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Indeed. So so we learned, of course that Marine

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Speaker 2: Leapen has been found guilty effectively of embezzlement using roughly

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Speaker 2: five and a half million New Zealand dollars of European

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Speaker 2: Union funding to run her own party. She had denied

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Speaker 2: those allegations. It was expected she would be found guilty.

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Speaker 2: What was not expected, Ryan was that she would be

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Speaker 2: barred from holding public office for five years. That means

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Speaker 2: that the favorite for the next presidential election in France

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty seven has been dealt a dramatic blow.

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Speaker 2: She is allowed to appeal, but the timing of that

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Speaker 2: appeal may make it very difficult for her to run

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Speaker 2: in twenty to twenty seven, so it looks like stepping

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Speaker 2: up to the mark will be her deputy Jordan Bardalla.

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Speaker 2: He's called now on people to rally in the center

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Speaker 2: of Paris on Sunday to protest at the ruling. We

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Speaker 2: now know that the judges who made this ruling have

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Speaker 2: received a lot of backlash on social media and threats

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Speaker 2: as well. This is something that the National Rally Party

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Speaker 2: Marine Le Penn's party has condemned. However, it shows I

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Speaker 2: think the strength of feeling and shows, particularly this weekend,

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Speaker 2: how difficult this march could be for the authorities in

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Speaker 2: Paris as they try to contain feelings but also trying

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Speaker 2: to make sure it doesn't come violent or around any

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Speaker 2: very unpleasant scenes in the heart of the capital.

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Speaker 1: Not just the teriffs that are going up for you guys,

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Speaker 1: but a series of quite essential household bills.

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Speaker 2: You name it. It's going up. So as we change

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Speaker 2: financial year from twenty four twenty five to twenty five

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Speaker 2: twenty six, water bills, energy prices are going up. That's

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Speaker 2: gas and electric. It's not just those council tax that's

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Speaker 2: the tax you paid to your local government, as it

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Speaker 2: were your local offices, as are the costs of the

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Speaker 2: taxing your car, having a television license, broadband and phone

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Speaker 2: bills all going up within the space of a few days,

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Speaker 2: and some of them really quite considerable. Some council tax

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Speaker 2: bills going up by generally by about five percent, but

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Speaker 2: some going up by ten percent and more. These are

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Speaker 2: significant bills. And according to one big charity here in

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Speaker 2: the UK, this is going to hit millions of people

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Speaker 2: on lowest incomes who are already s extra breaking point.

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Speaker 2: And Ryan, it affects many on low incomes, particularly single parents.

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Speaker 2: Why well, because a lot of these increases are in essentials.

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Speaker 2: In other words, they're not luxuries. People can't you know,

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Speaker 2: suddenly not use energy or not use water. So that's

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Speaker 2: why it hits these people hard, is and they are

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Speaker 2: saying that some are really going to be pushed to

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Speaker 2: a breaking point because, believe it or not, one in

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Speaker 2: five families here in the UK do not have any

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Speaker 2: savings at all. Ryan, So although the wages are rising

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Speaker 2: faster than the rate of inflation, I'm afraid there is

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Speaker 2: going to be some very very tough months ahead for

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Speaker 2: those on lower incomes.

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Speaker 1: Goodness, mate, Kevin, thank you today. Kevin Gray are UK correspondent.

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