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Speaker 1: We've broken out of recession officially. How good is that?

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Speaker 1: But it's margin of ara stuff. The economy grew zero

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Speaker 1: point two percent in Q one. That's the upper end

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Speaker 1: of expectations. Liam Dan's The Herald's business editor at large

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Speaker 1: and with us, Liam, Hello, did I Heather got to

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Speaker 1: take a win when we get one?

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Speaker 2: Right? I guess. Look, I'm pretty downbeat about it. I

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Speaker 2: think it's all about per capita, really, isn't it, in

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Speaker 2: terms of how people are feeling on the ground. I

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Speaker 2: basically don't want to be the guy shouting about it's

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Speaker 2: all over when we know that it's not all over

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Speaker 2: and that the next few months are going to be

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Speaker 2: pretty tough. To me, it's really all about when those

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Speaker 2: interest rates start coming down. So you know, we can

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Speaker 2: talk about February or May or September if you're the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank. But I think the idea of a downturn

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Speaker 2: we're still very much in it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I was saying earlier, and I still

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Speaker 1: think that whether they're going to move in November because

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Speaker 1: of just how stuffed we are. But I mean, as

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Speaker 1: somebody pointed out before, the inflation doesn't warrant that.

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Speaker 2: Does it. Warrant in terms of yeah, well no it

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Speaker 2: doesn't yet. I mean it could. You could be quite right,

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Speaker 2: and I hope you are that that because it's so bad,

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Speaker 2: particularly in that services sector. We're seeing that coming off

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Speaker 2: a bit of a cliff. And you know that that

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Speaker 2: end of the economy that's you know that we really

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Speaker 2: feel is where all that non tradable inflation was so

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Speaker 2: non tradable inflation is sticky, it's something like five point

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Speaker 2: eight percent, and tradeable which is imported food and oil

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Speaker 2: and stuff, is down one point six or something very low.

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Speaker 2: The non tradable is the bad stuff. We know that

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Speaker 2: people are afraid that it will stick there and will

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Speaker 2: be but actually, if the economy really tanks, and you

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Speaker 2: know in those areas that we saw today under the

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Speaker 2: hood on the GDP, it could come away quite fast.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, you're right. There's a few economists Tony Alexander

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Speaker 2: Kiwi Bank who still think and and some of the

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Speaker 2: international ones capital economics and things still think November is

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Speaker 2: as possible. It confuses that having that zero point to

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Speaker 2: growth in some ways have been cleaner if we've actually gone,

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Speaker 2: oh it's really really terrible. The top line still down

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Speaker 2: we're still in recession.

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Speaker 1: But hey, how many more inflation numbers do we get

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Speaker 1: before November? We've got one in October, don't.

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Speaker 2: We That's a good question. We must have two more,

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Speaker 2: I think.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, two more for it to come back and then

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Speaker 1: and convince Adrian.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and as you know, we don't get we don't

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Speaker 2: get the data quickly enough to really really give them

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Speaker 2: much opportunity to turn around. They'll be nervous because you know,

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Speaker 2: we can't control that tradeable So if you'll see in

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Speaker 2: the UK that they've got the CPI inflation down around

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Speaker 2: two percent and they're still not coming because their non

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Speaker 2: tradable inflation is up around you know, five point eighty

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Speaker 2: six percent or something, and that's the bit that reserve

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Speaker 2: bank central banks can control. And so if you've got

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Speaker 2: that up high and then you have an oil shock

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Speaker 2: or something like that, then you're back into the horrible

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Speaker 2: stagflation and everything. So so you know, I understand why

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Speaker 2: they're nervous. We want to see it, you know, squashed

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Speaker 2: and held off. Yeah, November hopefully.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, fingers cross, fingers cross, let's go for that, Liam,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Liam Dan, the Herald's business editor

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Speaker 1: at large.

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