1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,000 Speaker 1: Hither have you looked at the exchange rates since the 2 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:04,920 Speaker 1: OCR announcement? Meaning fuel and everything which is important will 3 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: be more expensive for BEAZ, Thank you very much for 4 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: bringing us to this. Right now, it's quarter past six 5 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: and Remy Morgan Milford Asset Management is with us high. Remy, Hi, Heather. 6 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: How did the market react to that decision? 7 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 2: Today? We saw markets readjusting their interest rate expectations lower 8 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 2: in response to that fifty basis point cut, and that 9 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: was because it wasn't fully priced in. We saw market 10 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 2: expectations for the November decision adjusting to fully price another 11 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: twenty five basis point cut. We saw wholesale swap rates 12 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,520 Speaker 2: offered lower. Notably, that key two year rate was down 13 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 2: around seven basis points shortly after the release. And the 14 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 2: other key call out was that INZA dollar, which we 15 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 2: can further immediately dropping around one percent against the US dollar. Yeah. 16 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 1: What about the INSIDEX have we seen any major moves there? Yeah? 17 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 2: So over the last week leading into today, the INSIDEX 18 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 2: moved sharply upwards and finally above record highs. Again, it's 19 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 2: only taken about four years, and that was likely in 20 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 2: anticipation of more rate cuts to come. Following that week 21 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 2: GDP print that we had the other week. Some notable 22 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 2: moves in share prices that are up around ten percent 23 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 2: over the past week are in cyclical retail companies like 24 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 2: sky City and Catman, do brands, housing linked retirement companies 25 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,279 Speaker 2: Ryman and Somerset, and real estate companies, and that larger 26 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 2: fifty basis point cut today further supported moves higher. We 27 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 2: saw the index closing zero point two five percent on 28 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 2: the day, marking a rally of over two percent the 29 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 2: past week and closing on a fresh new high. 30 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 1: How important do you think was the detail that the 31 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 1: Reserve Bank released for the market. 32 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 2: It was just a policy announcement this time, and not 33 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 2: a full statement with a new set of Reserve Bank 34 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 2: forecast as we had back in August, And because it 35 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 2: wasn't fully clear to the market which way the RBNZ 36 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 2: would go, that made both the decision and the signals 37 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 2: that the release sent to the market even more important. 38 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 2: Now the messaging signaled openness to cut further, and I 39 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 2: think that supported that market move lower in wholesale interest rates, 40 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 2: which helps to give that intended transmission effect. 41 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:09,679 Speaker 1: Okay, where do we go from here? 42 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 2: For companies in the insid X, particularly those more interest 43 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 2: rates sensitive and consumer focused companies. There might be some 44 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 2: further optimism to come as those lower interest rates continue 45 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 2: to transmit through the economy, but it is important to 46 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 2: remember that today's market reactions are a point in time 47 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 2: reaction and developments in the data and the economy can 48 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 2: see markets move potentially either way. 49 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: In response, Remy, thanks very much, appreciate it. Remy Morgan 50 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 1: Milfit Asset Management. For more from Heather Duplessyellen Drive, listen 51 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 1: live to news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, 52 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.