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Speaker 1: Housing market update for you. We've got life in June

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Speaker 1: zero point two percent up tick that off sets falls

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Speaker 1: in April and May. Big one has been towering on

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Speaker 1: christ Dutch, among others. Kelvin Davidson as cotellity history, property

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Speaker 1: economist and is back with us Calvin Morning, Good Morning,

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Speaker 1: Main Center is more up than down? Duneden, Hamilton towering

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Speaker 1: or christ Church? Is this bullish for Metro New Zealand

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Speaker 1: or are we getting a bit excited there?

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Speaker 2: Well? I mean in some way it's a bit of

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Speaker 2: payback for a week of months last month. So I

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Speaker 2: think it's just more of the same really, but up

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Speaker 2: but down overall fairly flat when you average it out.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, should we be looking not taking anything away from

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Speaker 1: the very good work you do. Should we be looking

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Speaker 1: at monthly numbers or quarterly numbers or yearly numbers to

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Speaker 1: get a broader read, because you must have some noise

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Speaker 1: in a monthly number, mustn't you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm tending to look at the three months comparison

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Speaker 2: right now. I think that's probably the more representative because

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Speaker 2: it is just a bit patchy but very gorman. And

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Speaker 2: annual comparison is probably a bit long because it depetts

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Speaker 2: on which period you're looking back to a year ago,

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Speaker 2: whether it was strong in a week. So I think

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Speaker 2: three months are a good measure of what's going on

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Speaker 2: right now.

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Speaker 1: What happens next week? Do you think we have another

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Speaker 1: conversation around the R But it seems increasingly likely they're

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Speaker 1: not going to do anything, So this whole mortgage is

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Speaker 1: coming down, they're still cutting. Thing suddenly takes another turn,

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Speaker 1: doesn't it. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think they'll probably hold the OCR next week,

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Speaker 2: but there may well be a cup coming in August,

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Speaker 2: so I think there's still more to come on that.

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Speaker 2: But the pass through to mortgage rates could be fairly

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Speaker 2: limited because the banks have probably already acted ahead of

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Speaker 2: there anyway. But I guess in terms of pass through,

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Speaker 2: there's also an issue that people are focusing on with

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Speaker 2: a lot of people out there on their existing mortgages

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Speaker 2: are currently still paying about six percentage, so there is

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Speaker 2: still a pass through to come as people get down

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Speaker 2: towards five. Now what they choose to do with that

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Speaker 2: money is another thing. They might save it, they might

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Speaker 2: reduce the term of their loans, so it might not

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Speaker 2: necessarily slow through to the market.

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Speaker 1: Are there individual stories in markets like fung arraise up

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Speaker 1: why versus Queenstown which is up And I can tell

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Speaker 1: you that because it's beautiful and tourism and all of

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Speaker 1: that sort of stuff. So it depends where you look.

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Speaker 2: Does and again in the month or months and becomes

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Speaker 2: part of it. I think funger A, for example, had

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Speaker 2: a couple of week and months prior to this. So

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Speaker 2: it is a bit a bit variable. I mean, you

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Speaker 2: can probably point a little bit to a story of

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Speaker 2: kind a region, a bit more growth in regions where

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Speaker 2: maybe dairy farming is still going fairly well. But I

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Speaker 2: think in generally the big common factors lots of listings, week,

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Speaker 2: labor market. Yeah, those things are really the key restraints.

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Speaker 1: The longer listings that the houses and I follow some

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Speaker 1: of them been stuck there for a very very long

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Speaker 1: period of time. Is that what's brought about the large

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Speaker 1: number of so called listings. In other words, you've got

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Speaker 1: your fresh and turnover, but you've also got houses that

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Speaker 1: have been there for you know, a year, if not

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Speaker 1: towards two years now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and we sort of loosely refer to that as

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Speaker 2: stale stop. You know, people have looked at it a

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Speaker 2: couple of times and you know, going, no, I'm not

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Speaker 2: I'm not buying that. The vendor's not budgeting on price,

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Speaker 2: so you know, you could argue that's maybe not really

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Speaker 2: on the market. But yeah, there are still a lot

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Speaker 2: of listings, but we are getting back to a position

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Speaker 2: now where sales are more normal, so then we will

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Speaker 2: see their listenings overhead start to fall. But you know,

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Speaker 2: it could be slow progress. I think it's still a

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Speaker 2: biased market for Oh yeah.

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Speaker 1: That's true. I've got a bit with Andrew Keller, who

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Speaker 1: are money man. I said, to calendar year seven percent

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Speaker 1: growth by the end of the year. I said this

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Speaker 1: obviously at a different time of the year. I'm dreaming,

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Speaker 1: aren't I.

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Speaker 2: Well, who knows what might happen over the next six months,

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Speaker 2: But yeah, we've go We've had less than one percent

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Speaker 2: in the first six months of the year, so would

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Speaker 2: take quite an acceleration to get to that number. So

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Speaker 2: I mean we're probably predicting maybe two to three you know,

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Speaker 2: pretty soft markets twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Okay, good on you, Kelvin, thanks for them. It's not

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Speaker 1: your fault. Kelvin Davidson, chief property economists at Tellousy. Then

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