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Speaker 1: Upside to COVID. As most of us got into the

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank thing, didn't we, I mean, we sort of

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Speaker 1: started thinking about it more than we ever have, had

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Speaker 1: a better understanding of what they're about and how profoundly

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Speaker 1: they've affected, or continue to affect, all of our lives.

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Speaker 1: So the FED, I mean just this week, the Fed

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Speaker 1: not cutting until maybe September. But then the job's report

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Speaker 1: comes out previous Friday, people panic, the recalls for emergency

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Speaker 1: cuts that won't happen, of course, and in a way

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Speaker 1: that's why we have Feds, not people who freak out

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Speaker 1: running around the place. Yesterday the Australian Reserve Bank made

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Speaker 1: their call last week there was the real suggestion, based

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Speaker 1: on job numbers there were too many of them. Not

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Speaker 1: only was there not going to be a cut, there

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Speaker 1: could be a hike. That led to headline right as

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Speaker 1: suggesting it would be the end of Elbneasy and that

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Speaker 1: it was the decision of a generation. Next week we

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Speaker 1: got our own Reserve Bank doing the same thing. Now

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Speaker 1: there's an amount, not a lot, but a bit, a

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Speaker 1: little bit of thought that they could cut. I doubt

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Speaker 1: they will. Jobs are not our problem. We certainly don't

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Speaker 1: have too many of those, but inflation has not come

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Speaker 1: down to a state that they will be comfortable with

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Speaker 1: that non tradable numbers five point four. That's not cutting

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Speaker 1: terror most retail banks have you heard a moment ago,

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Speaker 1: say one or two cuts by the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: I think they're probably right, which means in this bit's

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Speaker 1: important that the Reserve Bank is wrong and they're currently

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Speaker 1: telling us they're not cutting until well into next year.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're actually that sure. But the big

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Speaker 1: clue the game has changed. Although we all march to

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Speaker 1: our own beat, we're nevertheless entwined. If the feed in

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Speaker 1: America cuts, we're going to have to. We cannot be

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Speaker 1: an outlier. We are so flotsam and jetsam esk we

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Speaker 1: go where the world goes. Basically, of course, what was

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Speaker 1: What has sort of rooted the US market in particular

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Speaker 1: is this tech obsession. A bloke in a leather jacket

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Speaker 1: made some neat AI chips, and everybody drank the kool

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Speaker 1: aid on what AI was going to do with the world.

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Speaker 1: It's another bubble basically, not AI itself, necessarily, but the

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Speaker 1: hype around the next cool thing made by the next

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Speaker 1: cool company a lot of activity on markets is not

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Speaker 1: rooted in basics or fundamentals or common sense, but noise

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Speaker 1: and speculative greed. Basically that thing the Good Lord is

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Speaker 1: why the Central Bank don't dabble in it. Make no mistake,

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Speaker 1: this is all a mess. I mean, economically in New

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Speaker 1: zealand's not doing remotely well, but increasingly the white heat

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Speaker 1: of expectation shines on central banks. From Wall Street to

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Speaker 1: Shiftley Square yesterday in Australia to the Terrace next week.

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Speaker 1: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to

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Speaker 1: news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow

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Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio