1 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: FOTA. 2 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. If the 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 2: theme for twenty twenty four was cutting back, then twenty 5 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 2: twenty five is all about growth. The word appears thirty 6 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 2: one times in Prime Minister Christoph Luxen's State of the 7 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 2: Nation's speech, and for good reason. Luxon said it's the 8 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 2: key to brighter days ahead. After experiencing the biggest recession 9 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:42,199 Speaker 2: since the early nineteen nineties, Finance Minister Nikola Willis has 10 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 2: been handed a revised economic growth portfolio. As part of 11 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 2: that planning, working on things like driving up tourism numbers 12 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 2: and international investment. Later on, we'll get some insight into 13 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 2: how and weather New Zealand can actually stimulate growth from 14 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: Independent Economy Cameron Bagri. First up today as that Harold 15 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 2: Deputy Political Editor Thomas Coglin is with us to explain 16 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 2: why growth is the topic of conversation. Thomas, why do 17 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 2: you think the government has chosen to focus everything this 18 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:19,679 Speaker 2: year on growth? 19 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:22,759 Speaker 3: I mean a short answer is that because there isn't 20 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:25,119 Speaker 3: any The economy was shrinking at the end of last year, 21 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 3: and a shrinking economy is really bad because it means 22 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,759 Speaker 3: that all of us get poorer and life just gets 23 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 3: a bit tougher. And if a government wants to get reelected, 24 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 3: then it wants to make life better for people. So 25 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 3: the short answer is that when the economy is shrinking 26 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:40,559 Speaker 3: is really bad. So we need to get it growing 27 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 3: again to start raising living standards for everyone. Here that's 28 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 3: the living standards that you enjoy when you're not giving 29 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 3: government services. But obviously, as the economy grows, people pay 30 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 3: more taxes, and that means that the government gets more 31 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 3: money and to pay for the public services that we 32 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 3: all enjoy. So if the economy grows by an extra 33 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 3: percentage point of GDP up of what you think it 34 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 3: is growing at now, then that equates to an extra 35 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 3: one point two billion dollars a text revinue the treasury sets. 36 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 3: So if you can actually get the economy growing, it 37 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 3: is a good way of or growing faster. I should say, 38 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 3: it's a good way of making life better for people. 39 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 3: The trouble is like, it's just really hard to get 40 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 3: the kind of economic growth that the government wants. The 41 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 3: long term average of the economic growth is pretty bad. 42 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 3: And if you want to make the economy will grow 43 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,240 Speaker 3: this year because interest rates are falling and we're kind 44 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,959 Speaker 3: of moving out of that inflation reserve bank induced recession 45 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 3: that we had, So the economy will grow that the 46 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 3: government will want it to grow faster because it's that 47 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 3: faster growth, the bigger growth that won't just get us 48 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 3: back to where we were before. Well hopefully if it works, 49 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 3: and there are some question marks over that and will 50 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 3: hopefully make life better for us and make it life 51 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 3: better than it was before, but that's that's pretty tough. 52 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 3: One of the things that's really important just to finish 53 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 3: that question is that Treasury recently has been revising down 54 00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 3: New Zealand's growth forcusts because they think that structurally the 55 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 3: New Zealand economy is just not as strong as we 56 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 3: previously thought it was. So every year from twenty twenty 57 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 3: two to now, every six months, Trutories redes its forecasts, 58 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 3: and each of those forecasts have basically become more pessimistic 59 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 3: than the last forecast. That means that all of us 60 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:17,959 Speaker 3: are poorer. So in real terms, all of us are 61 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 3: about one thousand dollars poorer a year, actually a wee 62 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,359 Speaker 3: bit more than that, because that figure uses an older 63 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 3: uninflatent adjusted number, and it also means that there's less 64 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 3: tax revenue for the government. So it's really it is 65 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 3: a good thing that the government's focusing on it. Every 66 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 3: government focuses on it. Every government wants the economy to growth. 67 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 3: But yes, you can see why they are focusing on 68 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 3: it because it's essential to providing a good standard of 69 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 3: living for people. 70 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 2: National is blamed labor for most of their economic woes. Hey, 71 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 2: is that still a fair argument. But we're about midway 72 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 2: through their term now, aren't we How long do they 73 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 2: have to keep blaming labor. 74 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 3: That's a very questioner. I've been in the press gallery 75 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 3: long enough to know that labor was still using the 76 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 3: nine long years of neglect long after they took office 77 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 3: in twenty seventeen. I think they'll blame labor for some time, 78 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 3: but I don't think it's it is all labour's faults, 79 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 3: or even partly labour's fault. To go back to your 80 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 3: previous question, those two DP numbers that keep getting revised. 81 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 3: The real problem is that structural weakness in the New 82 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 3: Zealand economy and National's main allegation to who main allegations 83 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 3: against labors that they spent too much money and that 84 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 3: they were anti growth. Now is to spend too much 85 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 3: money argument, Yeah, in some of those budgets that labor 86 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 3: did in the second term, they did spend more money 87 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 3: than in retrospect, it looks wise to have spent, but 88 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 3: not vastly too much money, just probably a wee bit 89 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 3: too much money, and money that they had little concrete 90 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:46,440 Speaker 3: plan of paying for. But in terms of why Labors 91 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 3: left this government such a mess of deficit, the main 92 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 3: reason for that was that revision to those growth forecasts, 93 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 3: the amount of growth that was in the that were 94 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 3: we were expected to get was going to generate more 95 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 3: money and for the government and would mean that the 96 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 3: books would be in much better shape now Because that 97 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 3: growth has not transpired, It's meant that the spending that 98 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 3: labor had done and had planned to do doesn't have 99 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 3: enough revenue coming in to pay for it. The issue 100 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:14,679 Speaker 3: of Labor was not that they spent too much money, 101 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 3: it's that the growth that was meant to pay for 102 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 3: that that spending has not actually transpired now. Equally, the 103 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 3: other relegation, which is that they were anti growth, that 104 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 3: is slightly more complicated. They were certainly they ushered in 105 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,719 Speaker 3: a resource management regime where there was a debate about 106 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 3: whether or not that was too restrictive that it wouldn't 107 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 3: allow people to build. They were, I suppose, quite keen 108 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 3: on labor laws. They hiked them in and wange a lot. 109 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 3: The Fair pay agreements gave a lot of rights to workers, 110 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 3: which were obviously great. 111 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 4: If you're a worker. 112 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,679 Speaker 3: But if you're a foreign investor, you think, well, maybe 113 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 3: we want to go to a country that has your 114 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 3: rights for workers. Pretty grim, isn't it. But that is 115 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 3: that the calculation that's made. Of course, Australia is rich 116 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 3: enough that they tend to have greater workers rights and 117 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 3: they also get foreign investments. So it's very very complicated 118 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 3: and it really depends on it policy area. I guess, 119 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 3: what are. 120 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,840 Speaker 2: Some of the policies and initiatives that the government's actually 121 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 2: announced all ready to try and level up that economic growth. 122 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 3: The first big one is the Digital Nomad visa, something 123 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 3: that's been in the works for a long time. I 124 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 3: would actually say I don't think that this has been 125 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 3: announced as part of a growth agenda. I think this 126 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 3: is something that the government was looking at that Labour 127 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 3: actually wanted to do as well, and now seems like 128 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 3: a good time to do it, and they've just rebranded 129 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 3: it as a growth as growth policy. I don't regards 130 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 3: on that that is the way the politics works, but 131 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 3: this FEESA basically allows people who can work remotely from 132 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 3: say you're an American and you can work remotely, or 133 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 3: you can just arrive in New Zealand, open up your 134 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 3: laptop and stay here for nine months working for your 135 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 3: American firm, getting paid by your American firm, and traveling 136 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 3: around the country as a tourist having a great time 137 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 3: and hope. The hope is that with policy like that, 138 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 3: it will attract lots of wealthy foreign workers who have 139 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 3: a great time in New Zealand. Seal of our sites 140 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 3: go to restaurants and bars, spend money, be taxed on 141 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 3: their gst of course, and boost the tourism and actually 142 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 3: boots a lot of industries because it will add population 143 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 3: to New Zealand, and a population that life system and 144 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 3: that will stimulate demand. We hope it's a good policy. 145 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 3: I think Australia doesn't have a similar scheme. So I 146 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 3: suppose if you're someone from the rich Northern Hemisphere looking 147 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 3: to escape the northern winter and have a lovely southern summer, 148 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 3: then New Zealand starts to look pretty attractive. 149 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 2: And we're also looking at this year how fast track. 150 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 2: We've got RMA reform, reform of health and safety laws. 151 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 2: We've got a mining announcement from Shane Jones, less red 152 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 2: tape as well. So there's a lot of things that 153 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 2: the government is angling towards. Do you think any of 154 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 2: it's going to work? 155 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 3: That is a very good question. I actually think the 156 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 3: more difficult question is how you know it's going to work. 157 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 3: And the government's sort of avoided putting strict targets or 158 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 3: performance metrics around this because this year. One of the 159 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 3: reasons we haven't had growth in the last year has 160 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 3: been at the Reserve Bank piked interest rates really high 161 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 3: to squeeze inflation out of the economy, and that has 162 00:07:56,880 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 3: meant the economy has shrunk and like I've got pretty 163 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 3: hard as we all know last year. Now this year, 164 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 3: the inflation has largely gone, or the problematic and a 165 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 3: level of inflation's gone, and the Reserve Bank is cutting 166 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 3: interest rates and that will restore growth to the economy. 167 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 3: It will mean that people borrow more, invest more, and 168 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 3: spend more and grow the economy. So there will be 169 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 3: growth this year and the government will of course try 170 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 3: to play and credit for that growth, but a large 171 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 3: part of that of that growth will come from the 172 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 3: fact that you know, we're just we're at a different 173 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 3: point of that interest rate cycle. One would think that 174 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 3: stuff like fast track, it's hard to see with health 175 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 3: and safety it would really depend You'd have to talk 176 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 3: to some companies to and ask them, did you look 177 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 3: at investing in New Zealand and growing a presence in 178 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 3: New Zealand and was it health and safety laws that 179 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 3: stopped you from doing that? I certainly haven't seen cases 180 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 3: of that reported, but you know there might be. But 181 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 3: parsuably stuff like fast tracked, you would think that that 182 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 3: will that that is a tracking foreign investment to New 183 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 3: Zealand to build things, to create jobs, to spend money here, 184 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 3: which will which will grow the economy. So yes, like 185 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 3: those measures probably will mean that there is more growth 186 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 3: than the other wise would be, but it'll be very 187 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 3: difficult to disentangle. Well, you know how much of the 188 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 3: growth is thanks to fast tracking these other measures, and 189 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 3: how much is just thanks to the fact that the 190 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 3: reserve banks cutting interest rates. People are borrowing a whole 191 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 3: lot of money and specificative how we usually grow the economy. 192 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 5: But I'm telling you recovery isn't enough. We have to 193 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 5: go for growth and driving economic growth is absolutely critical 194 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 5: for improving our quality of life, strengthening our local businesses, 195 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 5: lifting our incomes, and creating opportunity all across New Zealand, 196 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 5: because a growing economy means giving Kiwis more choices and 197 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 5: the confidence to find a new job, or hire a 198 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 5: new staff member, or to open a new business, or 199 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 5: to start a family. 200 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 2: The other word of the year seems to be the 201 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 2: word no, or they're now being a lack thereover it. 202 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 2: I suppose Luxon has said, there's always a reason to 203 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 2: say no. If we keep saying no, we'll keep going nowhere. 204 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 2: We need larger ports, we need more concerts. What do 205 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 2: you make of this new anti no stance. 206 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 3: I think it's been it's interesting, it has been quite 207 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 3: well received by people, and certainly I think New Zealand 208 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 3: has has historically had a very restrictive regime when it's 209 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 3: come to stuff like that, even part concerts, stuff like 210 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 3: the resource management. It's been pointed out that's reported. It's 211 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:26,959 Speaker 3: been reported this week I can't remember where that time 212 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 3: that that Christopher Laxon is in a local MP himself 213 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 3: lobbied to say no to a housing development in his electorate. 214 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 3: So you know, everyone is New Zealanders do love saying no. 215 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 3: It's what we do. So I think I think it's 216 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 3: quite a persuasive persuasive message. 217 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:42,959 Speaker 4: Certainly. 218 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 3: I think when you look at it as from the 219 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 3: speak to of New Zealand, you look over the ditch 220 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 3: in Australia, which is arguably one of the most successful 221 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:53,199 Speaker 3: economies in the world, and New Zealand's not an unsuccessful economy. 222 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,559 Speaker 3: We're just much much less successful than Australia, which makes 223 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 3: Australia look much more successful than it is. But they 224 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 3: are probably better saying yes to stuff like mining. They're 225 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 3: a bit less hung up on, you know, the agricultural sector. 226 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 3: They are a bit more pro growth in those in 227 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,839 Speaker 3: those areas and certainly in the past, you know, with 228 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 3: then we're blots of agriculture through the lens of climate change. 229 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 3: It's obviously a very big mess. But agriculture also if 230 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,679 Speaker 3: we say, you know, quote unquote yest to agriculture, then 231 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 3: then you would, you know, maybe expect to see more 232 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:24,959 Speaker 3: economic growth the dairy prices that reportize at the moment. Also, 233 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 3: you know, mining, we we do very very little mining 234 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 3: in New Zealand at the moment. Australia obviously does rather 235 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 3: a lot, and and so there's probably rude to grow there. 236 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 3: So if we were to decide to say yes to 237 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 3: mining and then you probably would see more economic growth. 238 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 3: And of course one of the reasons why this is 239 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 3: so difficult is that obviously that you know, the reasons 240 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 3: are saying no are often quite good ones. The agricultural 241 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 3: emissions issue isn't going to go away simply by saying 242 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 3: yes to more agriculture, and you know, environmental degradation aspects 243 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 3: of mining aren't going to go away simply by saying 244 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 3: yes to mining. So there's a really very real trade 245 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:01,679 Speaker 3: off between saying yes to growth enjoying the better living 246 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 3: standards that come with that. You know, they think that's 247 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,719 Speaker 3: probably where chrystper Lutson's are being quite innovative with this 248 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 3: REASUREP is saying that by saying yes to economic growth, 249 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 3: you're saying yes to better public services and yes to 250 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 3: better living standards. But of course, the reasons why we 251 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 3: have historically said no, don't go away either, which is 252 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 3: that you know, New Zealand has a beautiful environment which 253 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 3: many New Zealanders love to protect. And it's a difficult 254 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 3: decision and that's why this debate is going to be 255 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 3: such a challenge. 256 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 6: Chrystper Luction says, the bottom line is that we should 257 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:36,440 Speaker 6: say no less and yes a lot more. What did 258 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 6: they say to delivering new inter island fairies? 259 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:39,839 Speaker 4: No? 260 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 6: What did they say to delivering a new to need 261 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:43,560 Speaker 6: an hospital? 262 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 4: No? 263 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 6: What did they say to delivering affordable water reform? What 264 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 6: did they say to delivering new state housing? What did 265 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:56,839 Speaker 6: they say to delivering school classroom O brains? What did 266 00:12:56,840 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 6: they say to delivering improved infrastructure for the care. 267 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 2: I've been watching a lot of clips out of the 268 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 2: debating chamber this week. Are you sick of hearing both 269 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 2: sides of the chamber just shouting the word no yet? 270 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 4: Yes? 271 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 3: Well, actually, this week is my seventh anniversarriend of Press Gallery, 272 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 3: and I suppose the whole time that I have been here, 273 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 3: the economy has been in a pretty challenging state. And 274 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 3: one of the things that, certainly as a journalist you 275 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 3: get quite concerned about is the fact that Parliament has 276 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:30,959 Speaker 3: become a bit of a circus, if an equal opportunity. 277 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 4: Circus as well. 278 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 3: I don't think one side of the House is more 279 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 3: or less culpable than the other. But as the long 280 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 3: term economic issues become more and more acute, politicians seem 281 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 3: less and less inclined to debate them seriously, and more 282 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 3: and more inclined to her insults at each other. And that, 283 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 3: you know, that's quite concerning for New Zealand too, And 284 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,959 Speaker 3: you think there's a logical reason for this, which is 285 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 3: that those long term issues are difficult to debate, and 286 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 3: they involve everyone making difficult trade offs with what they 287 00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 3: believe and compromises on what they believe. And it seems 288 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 3: many of our politicians, not all of them, but many 289 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 3: of them seem to turn their backs on that difficult 290 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 3: debate and would instead prefer to her insults as each other, 291 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 3: which I don't think quits them very well, and it 292 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 3: certainly doesn't doesn't look at the country very well because 293 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 3: because it means that important discussion hasn't really had. 294 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Thomas, thanks for having me. Now 295 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 2: on the front page, we talk with independent economist Cameron 296 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 2: Bagri for his thoughts on the government's new growth focus. 297 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 4: Well, it's not just about growth. One of the most 298 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 4: important things across society is one of the big drivers 299 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 4: of growth, and one of the drivers of growth is 300 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 4: productivity growth. Productivity drives living standards, and what we're seeing 301 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 4: over the past decade is a very big deterioration and 302 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 4: productivity growth. I used to average one point four percent 303 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 4: every year the last ten years, the year which has 304 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 4: been zero point two, So that means living standards are 305 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 4: basically stagnant. And if living stands is stagnant, you've got 306 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 4: a pretty big economic percent to leave employ your trade overseas, 307 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 4: which is obviously what we've seen. 308 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I noticed that in a recent column you wrote 309 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 2: for Business Desk. You wrote about a recent speech by 310 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank's chief economist, Paul Conway. One of his 311 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 2: main points you drew attention to was productivity. Hey, how 312 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 2: concerning are those stats around that? 313 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 4: Well, we're in serious trump and zero point two percent 314 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 4: per year is basically flat, and what the Reserve Bank 315 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 4: has done of laid is revised down. The estimate of 316 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 4: what's called potential growth, and potential growth is the combination 317 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 4: of labor, capital inputs, along with productivity growth. It sort 318 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 4: of defines how fast economy can grow without unlocking inflation. 319 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 4: That number is now between one point five and two percent. 320 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 4: That number used to be up in excess of three percent, 321 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 4: and that's a big wack up cool now, because if 322 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 4: we can't get this economy moving, then unemployment remains high, 323 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 4: people leave to go apply their trade overseas, and this 324 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 4: economic upscreen is not going to look too strong if 325 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 4: we don't get productivity growth up. 326 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: So the government's Going for Growth plan is about accelerating 327 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 1: the immediate economic turnaround while laying the foundations. 328 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 2: For faster growth in the years ahead. 329 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 1: And a critical pillar of this plan is looking out 330 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 1: to the world and confidently pursuing greater trade, investment and 331 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: international opportunities. We simply won't get rich selling to ourselves. Instead, 332 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 1: we must take practical steps to encourage our exporters, encourage investment, 333 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: and critically give people from around the world good reasons 334 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 1: to come to New Zealand to spend and invest. 335 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 2: How can the government go about improving those numbers? And 336 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 2: do you think any of those growth policies announced by 337 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 2: the government so far can achieve. 338 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 4: That we're moving in the right direction a bit, But 339 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 4: I guess the biggest shew in my mind is that 340 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 4: whether we're going hard enough and to be fair, lifting productivity, growth, 341 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 4: lifting you can performance is not just going to be 342 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 4: a function of government policy, and the private sector needs 343 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 4: to get out there and lift their game as well. 344 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 4: And one of the big issues that I'm thinking about 345 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 4: at the moment is that whether we've not a lot 346 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 4: of that old traditional entrepreneurial spirit on the head, because 347 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 4: it almost feels like you're in New Zealand's a big 348 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 4: part of the population is entering the retirement zone and 349 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 4: it sort of feels a little bit like the business 350 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 4: community is entering the same zone. 351 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 2: What can the business community do then, what's it like 352 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 2: a textbook way of improving productivity? 353 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 4: Investing in technology, investing in AI, investing in your staff, 354 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 4: constantly looking at your cost structure, constantly looking at your 355 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 4: better ways of doing business. 356 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 2: Cameron, you're also write in your column about how we 357 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 2: need to become a go economy and how we need 358 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 2: to lift risk appetites to drive entrepreneurial behavior like you 359 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 2: just mentioned, then can you expand on that for us? 360 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,359 Speaker 2: I mean, is it just the private sector that needs 361 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:18,439 Speaker 2: to make more of these risks in perhaps startups, or 362 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 2: can the government do something to better place businesses to 363 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 2: be able. 364 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 4: To do this? Well, I guess I'll give you an 365 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 4: illustration of one area we're very poor at. It's called 366 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,880 Speaker 4: capital productivity, basically how we manage sets, and capital productivity 367 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,399 Speaker 4: for thirty years has pretty well consistently been a negative number. 368 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,639 Speaker 4: So we build stuff, then we miss manage it, and 369 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 4: then alarm, behold odds, we've got to build it again. Yeah. 370 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 4: So there's a big debate going on at the moment 371 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 4: in regard to SX sales, and of course society tends 372 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 4: to be against set sales. Yeah, I'm not sure that 373 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 4: local government or central government is actually best placed to 374 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 4: manage a lot of sets that are on on their books. 375 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 4: Let's get those sets out under the private sector. Well, 376 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 4: we can look it running and managing those sets well. 377 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 2: And do you think New Zealand is actually willing to 378 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 2: take those risks though? 379 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 4: Well, I guess that's one of the biggessues that I've 380 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 4: been debating with people at the moment. Have we gone 381 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 4: down the risk curve? And when you go down the 382 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,399 Speaker 4: risk curve, you're not prepared to take risk, then don't 383 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,399 Speaker 4: expect the same returns on the other side. You've got 384 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 4: to both take risk, but you've got to manage risk. 385 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,919 Speaker 4: And it just feels like New Zeon's a step back 386 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 4: and lost a little bit of its mojo. You have 387 00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 4: that preparedness to get out there and ready have a 388 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 4: crack and drive a bit of economic growth. It's almost 389 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,400 Speaker 4: like the economy or society we've just lurched too much 390 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 4: into that safety design and the issue is how do 391 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 4: we get back out of or into an environment where 392 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 4: people are prepared to have a bit of a crack. 393 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 4: Less Government interference is one thing, but ultimately the private 394 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 4: sector needs to be prepared to get out there and 395 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 4: give it a crack. 396 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,879 Speaker 2: Do you think opening up to more foreign investment will 397 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 2: better things for New Zealand in the long run, But 398 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 2: some of those local owned businesses might have a look 399 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 2: at the foreign investment coming into the country and thinking 400 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:08,119 Speaker 2: all right, we can do this. 401 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 4: It's not just about the foreign investment, it's about the 402 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 4: foreign ideas. New Zealand needs to be far better connected internationally. 403 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 4: There we cd with the near twenty twenty two Economic 404 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 4: Survey in New Zealand made some pretty specific damning comments 405 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 4: on New Zealand's managerial capability, particularly in regard to tech 406 00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,800 Speaker 4: AI preparedness to take risks that we tended to be 407 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 4: around bordering tables. It tended to be a lot about 408 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 4: governance and not about strategy. They're report way back in 409 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 4: twenty twenty two was a pretty good snapshot of where 410 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 4: we stand. And one of the ways we can improve 411 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 4: there is to improve our connectivity with best practice around 412 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 4: the globe. 413 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 2: You mentioned that science innovation, you know, the AI advancements 414 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 2: that New Zealand could be involved with, But what about 415 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 2: going back to basics. I'm thinking you know Shane Jones 416 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 2: announcing more mining in the country for example. 417 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, Well, New New Zealand's blessed with a pretty good 418 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 4: natural endowment. Whether you look at stuff that could get mined, 419 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 4: give water, it rains. We've got to harness the power 420 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 4: of water in the form of irrigation so we can 421 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,400 Speaker 4: produce more food, we can manage the veriability around your 422 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,679 Speaker 4: mother nature in New Zealand's sitting on a bit of 423 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 4: a winning lottery ticket. If you think about what our 424 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,159 Speaker 4: natural endowment is, and I guess what Shane Jones is 425 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 4: pushing aheadworth is trying to maximize or unlock a lot 426 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 4: of those natural endowment resources so that we can get 427 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 4: ahead a little bit easier. 428 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Cameron. That's it for this episode 429 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 2: of the Front Page. You can read more about today's 430 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 2: stories and extensive news coverage at enzadherld dot co dot 431 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 2: enz The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sells and 432 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 2: Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. 433 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or where do 434 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another 435 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 2: look behind the headlines.