1 00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: Chiota. 2 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:09,800 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Destructive, devastating, apocalyptic. 4 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 2: That's how the wildfires burning across Los Angeles over the 5 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 2: last week have been described. The blazers have largely brought 6 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:33,959 Speaker 2: the US's second largest city to a standstill, destroying thousands 7 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 2: of buildings and forcing tens of thousands of people to evacuate. 8 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 2: It comes as officials declare twenty twenty four the hottest 9 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:47,520 Speaker 2: year on record, with temperatures breaching the target of one 10 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 2: point five degrees celsius above pre industrial levels for the 11 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 2: first time. Today on the Front Page will be discussing 12 00:00:56,080 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: the ongoing climate risks that New Zealand faces with victory. 13 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 2: Where are you a University of Wellington professor Jonathan Boston. 14 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 2: But first we're in Los Angeles with nine News USA 15 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 2: correspondent Lauren to Marzi. Lauren, can you start by describing 16 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 2: to us where you are currently and what sort of 17 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 2: damage you're seeing. 18 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 3: It's really extraordinary to look around where myself and my 19 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:29,839 Speaker 3: cameraman are at the moment. In the Pacific Palisades. This 20 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,759 Speaker 3: was the hardest hit area it's just tucked in behind 21 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 3: Santa Monica and Los Angeles. This feels no matter which 22 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 3: way you look, there's this devastation that's straight after straight 23 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 3: block after block of homes that have just been brought 24 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 3: to the ground by this fire that has moved through 25 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 3: so quick And you know, Australia and New Zealand are 26 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 3: so used to have seen bushfires that this is an 27 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 3: urban fire that's come roaring through the city. 28 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 2: The fires have been burning for coming up on a week. 29 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 2: Are there any signs of things being can yet? What 30 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 2: are some of the main challenges firefighters are facing. 31 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 3: It's the Santa Ana winds which comes through. It's a 32 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,359 Speaker 3: real winter thing here in Los Angeles and in California. 33 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 3: These winds barrel through the Santa Monica and through the 34 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 3: Santa Anna region. That's what's really causing the problem here 35 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 3: right now. He's still got four fires burning around Los Angeles. 36 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 3: Two of them are all but contained now, but those 37 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 3: two largest ones, the Palisades Fire and the Eaten Fire, 38 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,959 Speaker 3: which are on either side of Los Angeles, are still uncontained. 39 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 3: The Eaten Fire is burning currently up the hill and 40 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 3: it's twenty seven percent containers, So that's certainly progress that's 41 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 3: been made by the fire crews here, but when it 42 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 3: comes to Palisades Fire, it's only eleven percent containment. It 43 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 3: has caused so much damage it feels like there's nothing 44 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 3: less to burn. But you know, as Cruise Tron works 45 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 3: through as fast as they can ahead of these winds, 46 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 3: that they're getting the aerial assets up to put down 47 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 3: those water bombing helicopters and fire retardant because the concern 48 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 3: is these winds are going to pick up once again 49 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 3: and just a single ember can spark a whole new fire. 50 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 2: I understand there have been a lot of health warnings 51 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 2: issued because of all the smoke as well. 52 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 3: Right it's across Los Angeles. I mean in those first 53 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 3: initial days especially, it was just really a strange, eerie 54 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 3: sense to look out the window in the middle of 55 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 3: the city and it be blanketed by this such thick 56 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 3: ass and smoke. Now things are beginning to improve as 57 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 3: the fire dies down a little bit, but all throughout 58 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 3: the fire zone there is ass flying everywhere, and you 59 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 3: think about the amount of properties that have been burnt down. 60 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 3: It's hazardous. It's tough. There are water issues that's been 61 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 3: boil water issues across the county with water problems. It's 62 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,119 Speaker 3: tough for every which way you look. And then you've 63 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 3: got these tens of thousands of people who are right 64 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 3: now evacuated and trying to deal with the situation when 65 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 3: they either can't get back into a house or they 66 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 3: have no house to go back to. 67 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 4: Evacuations for the palisades and eaten fires they have dropped 68 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 4: in the last couple of days, which is some good news, 69 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 4: but as you hear, it's still a very fluid situation 70 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 4: and that could change. So be aware that we're at 71 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 4: approximately one hundred and five thousand residents under evacuation orders 72 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 4: and approximately eighty seven thousand residents under evacuation warnings. I 73 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,840 Speaker 4: just want to remind everybody if you are asked to 74 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 4: leave and you're in an evacuation order area, your life 75 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 4: is in danger. You need to leave. 76 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, those thousands of people that have been forced to evacuate, 77 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 2: where have they actually all gone. 78 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 3: There are evacuation centers set up across the city right now, 79 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 3: but it's a tough situation. The housing market here in 80 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:01,159 Speaker 3: Los Angeles is the best of time. It is horrific. 81 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 3: It is expensive. There are people who are trying to 82 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 3: stay with family members. At the moment, many staying in 83 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 3: these centers. But there's going to be need to be 84 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 3: something put into place because the hundreds and hundreds of 85 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 3: houses that's been burnt to the ground can't just be 86 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 3: put back up overnight. So it's a tough situation a 87 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 3: head there, and it's certainly a messy one. 88 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 2: And we've heard all about which celebrities homes have burnt down, 89 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 2: but so many more people have been affected. Right, have 90 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 2: you spoken to many people on the ground, Oh, I. 91 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 3: Have so many, and it is just heartbreaking hearing these stories. 92 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 3: I spoke to one woman, Suzanne in the Eaten fire. 93 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 3: Her house was in Alta Dina, and I was there 94 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 3: as Suzanne got back to her property. It was brought 95 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:52,359 Speaker 3: to the ground by these fires. She built up that 96 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 3: house with her partner, who passed away from cancer a 97 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:57,720 Speaker 3: few years ago. She said, all of her memories are 98 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 3: inside that house. It is so tough to see what 99 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 3: is unfolding here. It is person after person's story after 100 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 3: story of heartbreak. Yeah, it really it's horrific and it's. 101 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 2: Perhaps unsurprising to see as well. There's a bit of 102 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 2: a blame game coming from Donald Trump's side about the 103 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 2: causes of this disaster, what's going on there and what 104 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 2: our officials actually saying about what could have caused this. 105 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 3: Oh, there are so many political potshots being thrown out 106 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 3: right now. This morning, Donald Trump laughing out at Californian authorities, 107 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 3: he was on his truth social saying that the fires 108 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 3: are still raging. They are incompetent politicians who have no 109 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 3: idea how to put them out. Why can't they put 110 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 3: them out? And then you've got the politicians here in California, 111 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 3: the California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is asking questions himself 112 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 3: about what has happened. Donald Trump has now been invited 113 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 3: to view this devastation across Los Angeles. But the reports 114 00:06:56,120 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 3: that we've had of fire hydrants drying up and fire 115 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:05,479 Speaker 3: crews being unable to access water, now, in some respects 116 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 3: it is never there was never plan for this amount 117 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 3: of damage and fire fighting. But on the other hand, 118 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 3: Gavenu sim says, there must be answers as to how 119 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 3: this could have happened. And you know, if there were 120 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 3: those fire hydrants that were full, how many more properties 121 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 3: could that have saved and potentially live. 122 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us Lauren, thank you so much, Helphy. 123 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 2: The Los Angeles fires is just the latest natural disaster 124 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 2: the US has faced in recent years. Two back to 125 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 2: back hurricanes caused billions in damage in the country South 126 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 2: last year, while Hawaii had its own devastating wildfires just 127 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 2: two years ago and over the next months, Music England 128 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 2: marks two years since devastating weather events in the Upper 129 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 2: North Island left damage. We're still clearing up Victoria. University 130 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 2: of Wellington professor Jonathan Boston has recently published A Radically 131 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 2: Different World, Preparing for Climate Change, and joins US now 132 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 2: to discuss where we go next. Jonathan, your book caught 133 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 2: ari as. On its front cover, you write, societies must 134 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 2: prepare for a more perilous future. Can you explain that 135 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 2: to us? 136 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: Humanity has been warming the planet over the last one 137 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 1: hundred years or so through the burning of fossil fuels 138 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 1: and the destruction of forests, and the evidence is that 139 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: thus far we've warmed the mean surface temperature on the 140 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: planet by about one point three degrees celsius, heading towards 141 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 1: one point five and potentially two degrees. One of the 142 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: consequences of warming the planet is that we are changing 143 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: the climate system on the planet, and that, among other things, 144 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 1: is increasing the intensity and in some cases the frequency 145 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: of powerful storms. So we're getting more significant, intense rainfall events, 146 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 1: we're getting more severe droughts, we're getting some stronger winds 147 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 1: in places. The evidence is that as a result of 148 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 1: the damage we're doing, the costs economic costs are going 149 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: up at a higher rate than gross domestic product globally, 150 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 1: and the insurance losses are going up significantly. What we're 151 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 1: witnessing right now as we speak Chelsea, of course, is 152 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: the very severe fire events in California, particularly Los Angeles, 153 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: where there is no question there will be tens of 154 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: billions of dollars of a property damage, perhaps perhaps over 155 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: one hundred billion, and very significant insurance losses. So we 156 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 1: are entering a new world, a radical changed world, as 157 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: a result of human activity, and as a consequence of that, 158 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:10,839 Speaker 1: we need to prepare for a different world. Guess the 159 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,199 Speaker 1: tough thing is figuring out when you make that call, right, 160 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,319 Speaker 1: when do you tell people they need to leave their homes? 161 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's a huge call. I mean, the 162 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 5: intricacy of Westporter is that you have to you kind 163 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 5: of do have to make a call like that reasonably 164 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 5: early both both bridges become impassable, and so once it happens, 165 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 5: you are stuck on effectively an island in Westport. So 166 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 5: there is a point where you have to say, right, 167 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 5: in the interest of safety, we need to go now, 168 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 5: so you can't leave it too late. But also you 169 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 5: know it's a significant logistical event and obviously really upsets 170 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 5: a lot of people, so it's important that we base 171 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 5: those decisions on some good science. 172 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 2: Well, a lot of your book covers the idea of 173 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 2: relocation to avoid the risks posed by climate change. You 174 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,959 Speaker 2: use it the examples of Westport in twenty thirty facing 175 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:58,079 Speaker 2: rising sea levels and flooding, and Wellington, CBD in twenty 176 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 2: sixty five contending with its proximity to the sea as well. 177 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 2: Can you explain what you mean by relocation and what 178 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 2: that could look like. 179 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 1: So as we think about how we might adapt to 180 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 1: the impacts of climate change, we can in certain contexts 181 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 1: improve the protective structures that we have the stock banks, 182 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 1: seawalls and so on. But in many cases it won't 183 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 1: be technically feasible or cost effective to increase protection. So 184 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 1: the only realistic option in those sorts of situations will 185 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: be to literally remove existing physical structures that houses businesses, 186 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 1: infrastructure and so on and relocate them to safer locations. 187 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: To do this, we will need a very well developed 188 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 1: systematic planning framework that assesses the risk to particular coastal communities, 189 00:11:55,800 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: that provides local authorities or the national government the powers 190 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 1: to conduct the process of planned relocation over a period 191 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 1: of time, and then includes funding mechanisms to facilitate the 192 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 1: kind of changes that are required. Because obviously people will 193 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: be losing their property in many cases that will constitute 194 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:22,440 Speaker 1: their main asset. Businesses will be disrupted by the need 195 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 1: to move significant areas of business activity. It might be 196 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: the central business district of a town or even a 197 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: city like Wellington. So what we need in this context 198 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 1: is the legislative framework to provide the policy tools to 199 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: enable local and central government to manage this very difficult 200 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 1: process of moving buildings and infrastructure out of harm's way. 201 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: I mean, in many cases the buildings will need to 202 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: be demolished and the infrastructure will need to be demolished 203 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 1: and then removed. So planned relocation is essentially moving physical 204 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: is out of harm's way in an orderly managed way. 205 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 1: The risk, of course Chelsea is that if we don't 206 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 1: have a good policy framework in place, then we won't 207 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: move properties in advance of the incoming tides, so to speak, 208 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 1: and instead will suffer ever increasing damage along our coasts 209 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: and therefore ever increasing costs, both financial and non financial 210 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: to those who are affected, with potentially very, very damaging 211 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 1: consequences for society as a whole. Indeed, one of the 212 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:34,319 Speaker 1: big concerns I have is that if we fail to 213 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 1: prepare adequately in a proactive and precautionary way for what 214 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 1: is coming at us from the future, then we run 215 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 1: the risk of undermining our capacity as a society to cope, 216 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 1: thereby undermining our democratic institutions and moving into a very 217 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: different world in which that would be well tragedy upon tragedy. 218 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 6: It's twenty fifty. We've bone passed the one point five 219 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 6: degree target that world leaders promised to stick to. The 220 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,440 Speaker 6: Earth has warmed two degrees since the eighteen hundreds, when 221 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,559 Speaker 6: the world first started burning fossil fuels in mass scale. 222 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 6: Reports on heat waves and wildfires regularly fill the evening news. 223 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 6: Summer days exceed forty degrees in London and forty five 224 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 6: degrees in Delhi, as extreme heat waves are now eight 225 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 6: to nine times more common. These high temperatures prompt widespread 226 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 6: blackouts as power grids struggle to keep up with the 227 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 6: energy demands needed to properly cool homes. Ambulance sirens blare 228 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 6: through the name, carrying patients suffering from heat stroke, dehydration 229 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 6: and exhaustion. 230 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 2: Your Westport example, though, was only about five years away. Now, 231 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 2: how quickly can we have these conversations around how to 232 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 2: properly move entire towns. It sounds like we should have 233 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 2: been having this conversation years ago. 234 00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: Yes, well, in some parts of the country, local governments 235 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: have tried to have these conversations going back ten fifteen years, 236 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 1: but it's been very difficult because you've got a situation 237 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 1: where people have powerful vested interests in remaining where they live. 238 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: There's an attachment to place. You've also got quite a 239 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: lot of misinformation and disinformation, so people denying the nature 240 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 1: of the risk that we face. And then fundamentally you've 241 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 1: got the problem of who pays. And in the absence 242 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: of having some kind of central fund which assists people 243 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: to actually move from their existing dwellings, then of course 244 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: many people so they can't afford to move. So one 245 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: of the critical factors in all this is having a 246 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 1: principled approach to the bearing of the costs of planned 247 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 1: relocation over the coming years. On the issue of timing, 248 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: obviously that is going to vary from place to place, 249 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: but plainly in some cases we will have many decades 250 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 1: to plan and to undertake a really locate. In other 251 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 1: situations it might have to be done very quickly. If 252 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 1: we fail to be proactive about this, then we're going 253 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: to be faced with the kinds of situations that arose 254 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: as a result of the anniversary floods in Auckland in 255 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, and then the damage that Cyclone Gabrielle 256 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: inflicted in which over a thousand properties have been designated 257 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: as Category three, that is that they cannot be relived 258 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: in and are being brought out. And in that sort 259 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 1: of situation, well, then instead of having lots of time 260 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 1: to plan, people are affected kind of instantly overnight and 261 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 1: who's their home and business? 262 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 2: Now New Zealand loves a per capita table, but there's 263 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 2: one in your book that we probably won't like. Two 264 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 2: twenty twenty three weather events rank in the top five 265 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 2: of weather disasters by cost per capita for that year. 266 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 2: So these weather events aren't just happening overseas, they are 267 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 2: having an impact here already. Yet a lot of people 268 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:04,639 Speaker 2: still want to see these kind of events as one offs, 269 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 2: don't they They don't pay attention to the news, and 270 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 2: that we had the hottest year on record again last year, 271 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 2: for example, and probably think we're fear mongering by talking 272 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 2: about a more perilous future. As someone who's studying all 273 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:20,439 Speaker 2: of this on a daily basis, Jonathan, what would you 274 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 2: say to those people. 275 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 1: Well, I would encourage them to read the available scientific evidence, 276 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,120 Speaker 1: which is extensive, and in particular encourage them to read 277 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,280 Speaker 1: the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which 278 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 1: is a grouping of hundreds, if not thousands, of scientists 279 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: who have the mandate to assess the most recent scientific 280 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 1: evidence and provide a thorough analysis of what is happening 281 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,959 Speaker 1: and what is likely to happen in the future. And 282 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 1: if people read that kind of evidence, it will be 283 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 1: very hard, in my view, to conclude that there's no problem. 284 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,679 Speaker 1: On the contrary, the evidence is overwhelming that humanity is 285 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 1: warming the planet, that the warming of the planet is 286 00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:00,440 Speaker 1: having some very severe consequences, and those consequences will become 287 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: ever more severe over the coming decades and beyond. So 288 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: the first thing I would say is we need people 289 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: to read the best available, up to date scientific evidence 290 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 1: and to take that seriously. Then we need people, on 291 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 1: the basis of that to put pressure on governments to 292 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: develop the kinds of policy frameworks that we need in 293 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 1: order to prepare for what is coming. If we fail 294 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 1: to prepare well, then, as I've indicated, the costs and 295 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 1: consequences will be all the greater, and some of those 296 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:34,919 Speaker 1: consequences could be extraordinarily dire. So we do have a problem, though, Chelsea, 297 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,640 Speaker 1: which is that globally there has been an active disinformation 298 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:42,199 Speaker 1: campaign by the fossil fuel industry over many decades to 299 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,360 Speaker 1: try and persuade people that there isn't a serious problem, 300 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: or that to the extent that there is a problem, 301 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 1: it's not due to human interference in the climate system 302 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:56,360 Speaker 1: or other kinds of false accusations. And so, as we've 303 00:18:56,359 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: witnessed in watching the vires in California in the last week, 304 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,159 Speaker 1: there are still people saying that this has nothing to 305 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 1: do with climate change, it's all due to bad planning, 306 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 1: bad allocation of resources, and so on, Whereas the scientific 307 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 1: evidence is pretty clear that the kinds of events with 308 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 1: being witnessing have been at least made worse by climate change, 309 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,439 Speaker 1: and that this is a foretaste more and more of 310 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:21,399 Speaker 1: what is to come. 311 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Jonathan. That's it for this episode 312 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 2: of the Front Page. You can read more about today's 313 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:36,120 Speaker 2: stories and extensive news coverage at enzdherld dot co dot nz. 314 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 2: The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, 315 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 2: who is also our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe 316 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,680 Speaker 2: to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get 317 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 2: your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look behind 318 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 2: the headlines.