WEBVTT - Stuart Nash & Jordan Williams: What does the budget need to deliver? 0:00:05.721 --> 0:00:09.401 You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks. 0:00:09.401 --> 0:00:12.161 I'd be Jordan. You've you've got got yourself into the 0:00:12.201 --> 0:00:14.361 room for the lockup too, I see, so good on 0:00:14.401 --> 0:00:14.801 you for that. 0:00:16.561 --> 0:00:18.401 Yeah, it was a bit of a silly brew haha. 0:00:20.441 --> 0:00:23.081 The Minister of Finance had a bit of a I 0:00:23.081 --> 0:00:26.321 think quite an unbecoming spat with the Council of Trade 0:00:26.361 --> 0:00:30.961 Union's economists about a year ago, and other groups including 0:00:31.001 --> 0:00:34.041 the Taxpayers, Union, Businesses, Zeland, Infrastructure News Zealand among others, 0:00:35.041 --> 0:00:37.841 were potentially banned from the budget, which was just stupid. 0:00:37.881 --> 0:00:40.161 It means that basically only those. 0:00:39.961 --> 0:00:43.841 On the on the party sorry government payroll, we're allowed in. 0:00:43.921 --> 0:00:46.481 But luckily Treasury have seen since. 0:00:47.161 --> 0:00:48.801 Yeah, actually is it are you going to are you 0:00:48.801 --> 0:00:50.601 going to regret it? Is it fun being in there? 0:00:50.641 --> 0:00:52.481 Or is it just what's it like being in the 0:00:52.481 --> 0:00:53.041 pre budget? 0:00:53.481 --> 0:00:57.241 It'll be my eleventh budget and it's really I mean, 0:00:57.241 --> 0:01:00.121 the key thing is finding and it's a little bit 0:01:00.241 --> 0:01:02.201 I don't mean to make it sound like a game, 0:01:02.241 --> 0:01:05.721 but it's it's to find what the politician don't want 0:01:05.761 --> 0:01:09.201 you to know, because of course you're bombarded with press releases. 0:01:09.241 --> 0:01:12.681 I think one year, the record is about thirty two 0:01:13.201 --> 0:01:15.641 be high press releases that come in the pack. But 0:01:15.761 --> 0:01:18.641 really you're looking for what the government and the spin 0:01:18.721 --> 0:01:22.241 doctors don't want you to find. And that's kind of 0:01:22.241 --> 0:01:25.041 the game to if you can, if you can identify 0:01:25.081 --> 0:01:28.601 those before, especially in a modern media environment where you 0:01:28.841 --> 0:01:31.561 sort of you get sort of one yet one one 0:01:31.601 --> 0:01:33.561 lick of the story sort of thing. There's not like 0:01:33.961 --> 0:01:36.081 the good old days where there would be days of 0:01:36.161 --> 0:01:40.241 rolling coverage and new angles and things. Unfortunately, the media 0:01:40.321 --> 0:01:44.041 are so thin. That's no disrespect to you guys that 0:01:44.201 --> 0:01:47.081 actually that you know that plays for the government's advantage. 0:01:47.121 --> 0:01:49.481 So I would argue when even you know, we went 0:01:49.521 --> 0:01:51.281 into bat for the Council of Trade Unions, you know 0:01:51.641 --> 0:01:54.321 it won't surprise your listeners that, you know, the lefties 0:01:54.361 --> 0:01:56.761 over the Air and the Taxpayers Union don't agree on much, 0:01:56.881 --> 0:02:00.201 but we certainly agree that if you've got a legitimate interest, 0:02:00.321 --> 0:02:03.161 if you've got like the Taxpayers Union or the counts 0:02:03.241 --> 0:02:06.601 of trade unions literally hundreds of thousands of people that 0:02:06.761 --> 0:02:09.001 rely on you for you know, what's really going on 0:02:09.081 --> 0:02:11.241 inside government, then you should be there. 0:02:11.721 --> 0:02:14.321 Hey, just look, I want to take in a little 0:02:14.321 --> 0:02:16.641 bit to the pre government the pre budget announcement guys. 0:02:16.681 --> 0:02:19.361 But firstly, have you caught up with the announcement that 0:02:19.441 --> 0:02:21.121 was made of just an hour or two ago about 0:02:21.161 --> 0:02:24.121 the funding for next four years for twenty four hour 0:02:24.241 --> 0:02:26.561 urgent care clums you've caught up with that, Stuart. 0:02:26.801 --> 0:02:29.641 I haven't actually caught up with her. That's what level 0:02:29.641 --> 0:02:30.481 of funding is that. 0:02:30.601 --> 0:02:34.761 One hundred and sixty four million dollars over the next 0:02:34.961 --> 0:02:37.001 I think it's over the next four years. Basically, they 0:02:37.081 --> 0:02:39.441 want to have better access and they're saying that it's 0:02:39.481 --> 0:02:42.001 going to I'm just quoting Simmy and Brown here because 0:02:42.001 --> 0:02:44.601 I haven't interviewed, said the funding boost is going to 0:02:44.601 --> 0:02:47.641 mean ninety eight percent of New Zealanders will have access 0:02:47.681 --> 0:02:50.721 to in person urgent care within an hour's drive. 0:02:51.961 --> 0:02:54.881 So that's thems in. So that's about three point three 0:02:55.001 --> 0:02:58.401 billion dollars of pre budget announcements. Quite a lot there, actually. 0:02:58.241 --> 0:03:00.281 Yeah, well that's what I was thinking. Let's go to 0:03:00.401 --> 0:03:02.321 you first for that, Jordan, your reaction on that, But 0:03:02.361 --> 0:03:07.481 also how significant are is pre budget action to are 0:03:07.521 --> 0:03:08.681 we going to is it going to be an anti 0:03:08.681 --> 0:03:10.201 climax on the day? But tell us about the pre 0:03:10.241 --> 0:03:12.761 budget and announced that your reaction to that, if you've, if 0:03:12.761 --> 0:03:13.841 you managed to catch up with it. 0:03:13.881 --> 0:03:16.641 But you know, I've said about ten emails in the 0:03:16.721 --> 0:03:19.081 last few hours and I actually I haven't got my 0:03:19.121 --> 0:03:21.321 head around Watson bargoed and what's not so I still 0:03:21.361 --> 0:03:23.281 don't want to get myself into trouble. 0:03:24.081 --> 0:03:25.321 It's something sliss stream on. 0:03:26.641 --> 0:03:29.721 It's very clear that the government wants a little bit 0:03:29.721 --> 0:03:31.761 of a rolling moll over the next twenty four hours 0:03:32.081 --> 0:03:35.001 with lots of targeted commns. And this is to what 0:03:35.041 --> 0:03:38.241 I mean, by the way the sort of the budget works, 0:03:38.241 --> 0:03:40.721 that the government wants the milk as much as they can. 0:03:41.681 --> 0:03:44.681 Stew's right, though you know you do the numbers. They 0:03:44.841 --> 0:03:50.201 have announced far more new funding than what the total 0:03:50.321 --> 0:03:52.961 new funding of this budget is. Of course, you know, 0:03:53.001 --> 0:03:56.001 the perception is that Nicola Willis is cutting spending or 0:03:56.041 --> 0:03:58.881 has cut spending. Nothing could be further from the truth, 0:03:59.081 --> 0:04:01.641 both as a percentage of the economy and inflation in 0:04:01.801 --> 0:04:05.841 justin terms, she's spending more than when Grant Robinson leed this. 0:04:05.961 --> 0:04:09.561 I mean that it all roads point to and this 0:04:09.601 --> 0:04:12.441 is why I actually think that there's going to be 0:04:12.481 --> 0:04:16.001 some something. It's quite quite an extraordinary budget because in 0:04:16.241 --> 0:04:19.841 order to make the numbers work, they've got to be 0:04:19.961 --> 0:04:23.641 making cuts elsewhere. The question is as weird as that, 0:04:23.801 --> 0:04:26.521 and all will be revealed on Thursday. 0:04:26.561 --> 0:04:28.441 Well, don't we have an obvious one that everyone's been 0:04:28.521 --> 0:04:31.761 talking about. And Andrew Vant's got upset about Jordan. I'll 0:04:31.801 --> 0:04:33.801 go back to you, Jordan and then go to your student. 0:04:34.161 --> 0:04:37.121 Yeah that that that I mean, it was pretty pretty 0:04:37.121 --> 0:04:40.761 difficult or pretty pretty dumb politics, But yeah, absolutely it 0:04:40.841 --> 0:04:45.081 was inevitable the way that notwithstanding the you know, the 0:04:45.761 --> 0:04:48.601 so called brutal cuts that don't exist, you still had 0:04:48.601 --> 0:04:54.121 a situation largely as a result of those that mad 0:04:54.401 --> 0:04:56.521 change in the law. The last government did no offense 0:04:56.601 --> 0:05:00.681 to whereby you you know, you could compare apples and 0:05:00.681 --> 0:05:03.561 oranges and somehow, you know, you were you were getting 0:05:04.321 --> 0:05:08.321 what was it the teachers or nurses comp comparing themselves 0:05:08.521 --> 0:05:10.601 to prison offices, you know, this sort of thing, or 0:05:11.521 --> 0:05:13.961 my favorite was the you know, the vet nurses and 0:05:14.041 --> 0:05:17.881 the prison officers. You know that it was very clearly 0:05:17.961 --> 0:05:19.521 an issue the yere to be tackled. 0:05:19.521 --> 0:05:20.801 But I think there's going to be a lot more. 0:05:21.161 --> 0:05:24.561 We've got a paper coming out in the morning whereby 0:05:24.721 --> 0:05:27.441 we put to We've put together a couple of dozen 0:05:27.561 --> 0:05:31.761 options where you where the government could reduce spending to 0:05:31.801 --> 0:05:34.121 get the books back in the black. You know, we've 0:05:34.161 --> 0:05:38.241 just finished our nationwide debt clock tour. You know it's 0:05:38.321 --> 0:05:43.201 about ninety two thousand dollars per household the government has borrowed. 0:05:43.721 --> 0:05:46.521 We are on an unsustainable path. There's going to it 0:05:46.561 --> 0:05:50.521 is actually regardless of what Nikola Willis wants, there's going 0:05:50.561 --> 0:05:53.241 to have to be some tough decisions over the next 0:05:53.281 --> 0:05:53.921 few years. 0:05:54.081 --> 0:05:56.361 Hey, Stuart, what do you make of the pre budget announcements? 0:05:56.361 --> 0:05:58.081 Because we've seen that one I've just mentioned to you. 0:05:58.161 --> 0:06:00.801 We've seen the defense of twelve billion over four years. 0:06:00.801 --> 0:06:05.001 We've got education on math, support and science and innovation, infrastructuring. 0:06:05.081 --> 0:06:06.841 I've got quite a list in fun of me. Is 0:06:06.921 --> 0:06:09.281 this more than Is this more than we're used to 0:06:09.281 --> 0:06:10.641 with pre budget announcements? 0:06:11.201 --> 0:06:11.961 Not really. 0:06:12.001 --> 0:06:15.041 I mean to go to Jordan's first point that he made. 0:06:15.601 --> 0:06:18.881 There will be twenty to thirty press releases put out 0:06:18.921 --> 0:06:21.561 on budget Day and a lot of the good stuff 0:06:21.601 --> 0:06:24.161 will get lost. It's up to the media to sift 0:06:24.841 --> 0:06:26.241 through and find out the ones that are actually going 0:06:26.281 --> 0:06:28.121 to make the headlines. So what you do is you 0:06:28.161 --> 0:06:30.001 release stuff that you think is going to be good 0:06:30.081 --> 0:06:32.281 because you don't want it to get lost, like the 0:06:32.281 --> 0:06:33.801 one that's I mean just made like the Minister of 0:06:33.921 --> 0:06:37.841 Education around something for mass But it also signals that 0:06:37.881 --> 0:06:39.401 there's going to be a lot more money spent in 0:06:39.441 --> 0:06:43.241 those portfolios because you know, something like education. You don't 0:06:43.321 --> 0:06:46.681 come out with your hero your hero policies or your 0:06:46.681 --> 0:06:50.241 hero projects pre budget because you want them to make 0:06:50.281 --> 0:06:53.361 the news day of the budget, because this is where 0:06:53.361 --> 0:06:55.561 you want people to buy into it. But let me 0:06:55.601 --> 0:06:57.921 say one other thing. I mean, this government's come out 0:06:57.921 --> 0:06:59.441 with a going for growth agenda the to being very 0:06:59.481 --> 0:07:03.361 clear about that. Chris Luxeon got in became leader of 0:07:03.401 --> 0:07:05.041 the National Party and their Prime Minister on the back 0:07:05.081 --> 0:07:06.721 of the fact that he was a businessman, he ran 0:07:06.801 --> 0:07:08.961 in New Zealand and therefore he knows how to run 0:07:08.961 --> 0:07:12.441 a country. So it's got to be more than just cuts. 0:07:13.361 --> 0:07:16.761 Nicola has announced that they've got about one point three 0:07:16.801 --> 0:07:19.481 billion to spend, but what they've got to do now 0:07:19.641 --> 0:07:23.721 is provide something to the private sector which really turbo 0:07:23.801 --> 0:07:26.961 boosts growth. And now I've been talking about accelerate depreciation 0:07:27.201 --> 0:07:29.241 for two or three years when I was Minister for 0:07:29.321 --> 0:07:32.681 Economic Development, we had papers go through the second stage 0:07:32.681 --> 0:07:34.281 of budget. I've even talked to the Prime Minister and 0:07:34.281 --> 0:07:36.721 the Minister of Finance about that. So you can't just 0:07:36.881 --> 0:07:39.961 cut and hope that we'll feed into a narrative of 0:07:40.001 --> 0:07:43.361 going for growth. You've got to provide a financial or 0:07:43.401 --> 0:07:47.241 fiscal incentive for businesses to start investing and driving productivity. 0:07:47.321 --> 0:07:52.001 So it is something like accelerate depreciation. But announcing that 0:07:52.321 --> 0:07:55.361 we're going to cut public servants jobs does not turbo 0:07:55.441 --> 0:07:58.681 charge the economy in a way that will create productivity, 0:07:59.041 --> 0:08:01.881 wealth and get rid of some of the terms of 0:08:01.881 --> 0:08:03.681 billion worth a debt that Jordan's been talking about. 0:08:03.841 --> 0:08:05.241 Just before we get into what we want to see 0:08:05.281 --> 0:08:08.601 from this budget, what has been the best pre budget 0:08:08.601 --> 0:08:09.961 announcement in both your views? 0:08:09.961 --> 0:08:14.881 First, Jordans, I can certainly think of the worst, and 0:08:14.961 --> 0:08:18.721 that is the bloody one hundred million dollars for subsidies 0:08:18.761 --> 0:08:22.561 for the for the film industry that Nicola willis to 0:08:22.961 --> 0:08:27.041 cried in opposition and is now yet now literally borrowing 0:08:27.081 --> 0:08:30.281 money to give to Hollywood at a time where Donald 0:08:30.281 --> 0:08:32.761 Trump has said he's coming out to get the government, 0:08:32.801 --> 0:08:39.001 the countries and governments that are artificially subsidizing a competition 0:08:39.081 --> 0:08:43.001 to Hollywood. It's if a nuts in terms in terms 0:08:43.001 --> 0:08:46.801 of the good announcement, it's probably the reduction in the 0:08:46.841 --> 0:08:50.081 size of what's called the fiscal envelope that that stew 0:08:50.241 --> 0:08:53.641 just referred to, and that's the amount of new permanent 0:08:53.681 --> 0:08:57.361 spending because the way it works sort of cumulative the increases. 0:08:58.881 --> 0:09:01.521 Nicola Willis made a big hoo ha that she has 0:09:01.601 --> 0:09:05.361 reduced it, but I mean it's it's still I mean, 0:09:05.561 --> 0:09:08.561 when the when labor or the media or the government 0:09:08.601 --> 0:09:12.441 talk about cuts, what that actually meaning or what it's 0:09:12.521 --> 0:09:15.001 not cuts in the way that that that the average 0:09:15.001 --> 0:09:18.721 person thinks it is. It's simply growing the pie or 0:09:19.081 --> 0:09:21.321 what the government spends slower. 0:09:21.841 --> 0:09:23.601 And because they predicted out. 0:09:23.401 --> 0:09:26.201 Into the future, they say that's a cut, which clearly isn't. 0:09:26.241 --> 0:09:29.561 What did you what was your most exciting pre budget announcement, Stuart? 0:09:29.561 --> 0:09:30.721 For good or bad reasons? 0:09:30.801 --> 0:09:34.081 Let's let's roll with Well, well, the worst one would 0:09:34.081 --> 0:09:36.521 have to be defense, you know, spinning over two billion 0:09:36.561 --> 0:09:39.281 dollars on defense while at the same time telling you know, 0:09:40.201 --> 0:09:43.241 women that pay equity isn't important and so you know, 0:09:43.401 --> 0:09:45.601 we'd rather have tanks and guns and ships and soldiers 0:09:45.681 --> 0:09:53.201 than than pay equity. I think was absolutely I know, 0:09:53.601 --> 0:09:56.321 I thought they got that completely wrong and they didn't 0:09:56.321 --> 0:09:58.521 manage political risk in a way that someone like Helen 0:09:58.521 --> 0:10:01.561 Clark or John Key, both both superb politicians from either 0:10:01.561 --> 0:10:04.161 side of the political spectrum, obviously did incredibly well. I 0:10:04.161 --> 0:10:05.921 think it was the g will take head on that 0:10:06.201 --> 0:10:09.961 my best one. I mean, I'm a huge believer in education. 0:10:10.041 --> 0:10:13.241 I mean I used to work in the teristory sector. 0:10:13.681 --> 0:10:16.561 I wrote the business case for a university campus and 0:10:16.561 --> 0:10:19.321 then meeting ran it. I've got four kids in the 0:10:19.401 --> 0:10:23.681 education system and I've had a really bad experience with 0:10:23.761 --> 0:10:25.921 one school where I just do not think that the 0:10:25.961 --> 0:10:29.281 teacher was up to teaching maths to my form two 0:10:29.361 --> 0:10:31.401 year old son. With all due respect to her, she's listening. 0:10:32.161 --> 0:10:34.961 So you know, the Minister of Education's expert maths teachers 0:10:34.961 --> 0:10:38.121 and tests one hundred million dollars. There is no downside 0:10:38.121 --> 0:10:39.961 to that. Kids have got to learn maths. They've got 0:10:40.001 --> 0:10:42.561 to be competent maths and when they hit high school, 0:10:44.081 --> 0:10:46.801 maths is the basis of economics, of finance, of everything. 0:10:46.841 --> 0:10:48.721 We need our young kids to be competent. 0:10:48.881 --> 0:10:50.881 Point Stuart I wonder if Judith Collins just wanted to 0:10:50.881 --> 0:10:53.241 have guns like yours, Stuart, because they are quite famous 0:10:53.281 --> 0:10:53.681 your guns. 0:10:53.681 --> 0:10:56.521 But I'm almost impossible. But you know, two billion dollars 0:10:56.561 --> 0:10:58.001 will will go a long way. 0:10:59.001 --> 0:11:00.761 I'm think twenty five bucks a month at a fit 0:11:00.841 --> 0:11:04.761 that center. Sorry was that mischievous of me? I'm actually 0:11:04.801 --> 0:11:06.441 with just not get distracted about that. Have you got 0:11:06.481 --> 0:11:08.521 any just quick follow up on that's Jordan before we 0:11:08.521 --> 0:11:10.441 crack on with looking at the actual budget. 0:11:10.641 --> 0:11:11.241 I didn't push. 0:11:11.521 --> 0:11:14.801 We ad a member of staff who's so right way. 0:11:14.921 --> 0:11:17.161 He thinks that, you know, you can't justify defense spending 0:11:17.681 --> 0:11:20.601 even even the taxpayer union isn't quite there yet. The 0:11:20.641 --> 0:11:24.841 thing is due in a geopolitical environment where there's real 0:11:24.961 --> 0:11:28.201 international pressure to get your percentage of GDP spending on 0:11:28.281 --> 0:11:32.241 defense up. I think that the broader question is is 0:11:32.281 --> 0:11:35.561 where that defense money is going? Because our reading of 0:11:35.761 --> 0:11:39.441 how the US and OECD with I don't know if 0:11:39.441 --> 0:11:43.881 it's OECD or World Bank that define what defense spending is, 0:11:44.041 --> 0:11:47.201 it actually can include some quite useful stuff the search 0:11:47.241 --> 0:11:51.641 and rescue for example, for example, some infrastructure stuff you 0:11:51.681 --> 0:11:55.681 can actually get within that international meaning of defense. So 0:11:55.801 --> 0:11:58.641 I sort of kept my power dry a bit on 0:11:59.121 --> 0:12:02.241 that one, because the key question of is is it 0:12:02.281 --> 0:12:06.361 in defense in terms of wasting money on armored personnel carriers, 0:12:07.121 --> 0:12:10.041 or is it stuff that actually ticks off the international 0:12:10.081 --> 0:12:12.441 requirements but things that we'll actually use. 0:12:12.761 --> 0:12:16.401 Yeah, well, let's say, Look, I just one thing. I 0:12:16.641 --> 0:12:18.801 don't disagree with that, but I don't think we should 0:12:18.841 --> 0:12:21.841 be bullied into spending two percent of GDP when we 0:12:21.841 --> 0:12:24.561 don't actolutely need to. I mean, you know, I got 0:12:24.561 --> 0:12:27.481 a feeling that the money was spending on a twentieth 0:12:27.521 --> 0:12:31.321 century defense force when we need twenty first century solutions, 0:12:31.321 --> 0:12:32.881 and you know, we've got to play our roles, that 0:12:33.041 --> 0:12:35.921 is no doubt. But yeah, but I would like to 0:12:35.921 --> 0:12:37.721 see that money spent a hell of a lot smarter 0:12:38.121 --> 0:12:39.721 than the announcements that I've seen today. 0:12:39.921 --> 0:12:42.681 Yeah, I just my two penas worth. When we did 0:12:42.721 --> 0:12:44.161 talk bit of talk back on this, I didn't. I 0:12:44.201 --> 0:12:45.801 don't think I got a single bit of pushback on 0:12:45.801 --> 0:12:47.881 the defense spending. I think there's a large part of 0:12:47.881 --> 0:12:49.761 the public who think we're embarrassed by the fact that 0:12:49.761 --> 0:12:51.361 we see we can put up a hang glider or 0:12:51.361 --> 0:12:53.481 to an assessmenter as a sort of say it's our 0:12:53.481 --> 0:12:56.161 air force. But that's being a little bit mischievous, I'll 0:12:56.161 --> 0:12:58.641 be honest with you. Hey, okay, well let's look at 0:12:58.641 --> 0:13:02.161 this budget is Jordan? Is this budget? Is this the 0:13:02.201 --> 0:13:05.441 one where the government sort of will take the risk 0:13:05.481 --> 0:13:07.761 of a few tough announcements. Is it like it as 0:13:07.761 --> 0:13:10.081 a free hit because they've got another budget after this 0:13:10.121 --> 0:13:11.361 before they have to run for election. 0:13:12.601 --> 0:13:12.801 Yeah. 0:13:12.841 --> 0:13:17.441 My reading on the National Party caucus is they realize 0:13:17.481 --> 0:13:21.441 now that they missed the trick last year, that they wasted. 0:13:22.041 --> 0:13:24.361 Last year's budget didn't actually get on top of any 0:13:24.401 --> 0:13:27.561 of the big structural stuff. And we're quite an extraordinary 0:13:27.561 --> 0:13:30.121 situation about three or four months ago where the Nats 0:13:30.161 --> 0:13:31.961 were well, the center right were down a bit in 0:13:31.961 --> 0:13:35.441 the polls, and of course a normal political sort of 0:13:35.521 --> 0:13:38.801 intuition is that you then hug the center. What I 0:13:38.841 --> 0:13:40.801 can tell you is both the focus group and the 0:13:40.881 --> 0:13:44.641 poll data showed clearly is that they actually wanted government, 0:13:44.721 --> 0:13:48.521 wanted mister Luxeon to stand for something. And I hope 0:13:48.641 --> 0:13:51.921 that will be reflected on Thursday, that we actually see 0:13:51.961 --> 0:13:54.481 something bold because we've had I mean, come on, how 0:13:54.561 --> 0:13:56.881 much rhetoric we had about going for growth, going for growth. 0:13:57.161 --> 0:14:01.321 We'll get on with it, and Stue rightly pointed to 0:14:01.441 --> 0:14:04.681 accelerated depreciation. He's being a bit soft there. If you 0:14:04.761 --> 0:14:07.401 really want to put a rocket under the economy and 0:14:07.401 --> 0:14:10.321 go for growth, I would or the tax faser Union 0:14:10.361 --> 0:14:13.881 have long argued that best bang for buck is full 0:14:13.921 --> 0:14:18.841 expensing of capital items. And that's what Rushie Sonak did, 0:14:18.881 --> 0:14:21.841 It's what Donald Trump did the first time around, and 0:14:21.921 --> 0:14:25.441 it really would put not only a sort of stimulus 0:14:25.521 --> 0:14:29.721 under the economy, but it's the very capital spending that 0:14:29.761 --> 0:14:34.161 would result in high productivity, which ultimately makes new zeel 0:14:34.161 --> 0:14:34.921 and more prosperous. 0:14:34.961 --> 0:14:36.601 Are we going to see tax cuts at all, Stuart? 0:14:36.641 --> 0:14:37.001 Do you think? 0:14:37.641 --> 0:14:38.001 No? I don't. 0:14:38.001 --> 0:14:40.401 Do we see tax cuts. We won't see increase in 0:14:40.441 --> 0:14:43.121 tax now. But I'm going Jordan, I agree with you. 0:14:43.201 --> 0:14:45.801 I mean, expense and capital would just be brilliant. But 0:14:45.841 --> 0:14:47.841 I think accelerated appreciation is a way to get around 0:14:47.841 --> 0:14:49.601 it as well. I mean the paper that I put 0:14:49.601 --> 0:14:52.681 forward and like I said, got quite a way down. 0:14:52.761 --> 0:14:55.601 The process was up fifty percent over five years, and 0:14:55.601 --> 0:14:57.681 I spoke to a whole lot of men and women 0:14:57.721 --> 0:14:59.881 who ran big companies and they said it would be 0:14:59.921 --> 0:15:03.161 a game changer in terms of what we spent money on. 0:15:03.641 --> 0:15:06.481 So at appreciation law thirty years old, they appreciate an 0:15:06.521 --> 0:15:09.121 asset its physical life as opposed to was economic life. 0:15:09.161 --> 0:15:12.161 A gain way out of step. But what we're seeing 0:15:12.201 --> 0:15:14.721 here is I think, you know, gone of the days 0:15:14.761 --> 0:15:17.441 where the general public can expect the government to stimulate 0:15:17.441 --> 0:15:20.161 the economy through spending. I think the government has to 0:15:20.161 --> 0:15:23.321 provide now the tools for the predate set to stimulate 0:15:23.401 --> 0:15:26.321 growth through spending, and you do that through accelerate depreciation 0:15:26.481 --> 0:15:30.041 or expensive but you've got to put the tools in place. 0:15:30.081 --> 0:15:32.041 I mean I read something where one of the captains 0:15:32.081 --> 0:15:34.401 of well Ahead, of one of the think tanks, said, 0:15:35.361 --> 0:15:37.521 you know, men and women who run businesses have got 0:15:37.521 --> 0:15:40.361 to change their attitude. That does not work. You've got 0:15:40.361 --> 0:15:43.241 to provide some form of economic consenter for them to 0:15:43.281 --> 0:15:46.521 do that. Capital expending or acceleraty appreciation would do that. 0:15:46.601 --> 0:15:49.081 I hope we see that. That would be a game changer. 0:15:49.121 --> 0:15:51.881 I think actually I've got a text from someone saying 0:15:51.881 --> 0:15:54.241 what the hell is accelerated depreciation, which would lead me 0:15:54.281 --> 0:15:56.681 to the question about are they going to have stuff 0:15:56.721 --> 0:15:59.681 in the budget that's for the general public to digest 0:15:59.721 --> 0:16:02.081 and go No, none, we love that or is this 0:16:02.481 --> 0:16:05.321 more something where we're going to have extended analysis in 0:16:05.361 --> 0:16:08.041 the news and people like yourselves, Jordan, are gonna tell 0:16:08.081 --> 0:16:09.881 us what the hidden tricks are. 0:16:10.761 --> 0:16:11.801 Well, i'll give it. 0:16:12.041 --> 0:16:14.121 I'll see if I can explain it in twenty seconds. 0:16:14.121 --> 0:16:16.881 It's the best tax idea most people haven't heard of. 0:16:17.201 --> 0:16:20.521 So let's say I'm a business and I have an 0:16:20.521 --> 0:16:23.081 expense like wages. I get to write that off my 0:16:23.121 --> 0:16:25.921 tax because it's an expense. But I buy a new 0:16:26.041 --> 0:16:29.521 piece of cat, a new flang down machine. Okay, I 0:16:29.681 --> 0:16:32.521 don't get to deduct that for the purposes of what 0:16:32.561 --> 0:16:35.921 I pay income tax, except over the lifetime of the 0:16:35.921 --> 0:16:37.321 assets that can be up to you know, it could 0:16:37.321 --> 0:16:40.521 be twenty five years, and it depends on the type 0:16:40.561 --> 0:16:44.121 of asset. What the Taxpayer's Union is arguing is give 0:16:44.281 --> 0:16:48.401 that tax seduction that year, and we actually argue it 0:16:48.401 --> 0:16:51.081 should be time limited. So you've got an incentive to 0:16:51.201 --> 0:16:55.041 bring forward capital investment. Because look, it is a stimulus. 0:16:55.241 --> 0:16:57.441 But unlike a sort of tax simulus where it's you know, 0:16:57.521 --> 0:17:00.281 run down to Harvey Norman and you know, spend. 0:17:00.001 --> 0:17:00.841 Your tax cart. 0:17:01.241 --> 0:17:05.481 It's the stimulus on the very sort of cat, very 0:17:05.561 --> 0:17:09.641 capital equipment that would make New Zealand more productive. 0:17:09.601 --> 0:17:11.481 And culture basically essentially, isn't it. 0:17:11.881 --> 0:17:16.321 Yeah, but we have questions because we're low productivity the 0:17:17.681 --> 0:17:19.161 very investment to increase that. 0:17:19.361 --> 0:17:21.121 Yeah, okay, change right. 0:17:21.161 --> 0:17:24.241 But you're going to get some announcements like Minister Stanfords 0:17:24.321 --> 0:17:28.161 educational one that that parents with kids at school who 0:17:28.161 --> 0:17:30.281 are struggling with maths understands. You're going to get some 0:17:30.481 --> 0:17:34.521 like Semians to do with health, which parents and voters understand, 0:17:34.601 --> 0:17:37.001 and then you're going to get some I'm really hopeful 0:17:37.401 --> 0:17:38.881 of the sort of stuff that Jordan and I are 0:17:38.921 --> 0:17:41.281 talking about, where if we went into greater depth, we'd 0:17:41.281 --> 0:17:43.361 lose the vast majority of people because it's sort of 0:17:43.401 --> 0:17:47.081 a it's a big business finance, tax economics question. But 0:17:47.161 --> 0:17:49.721 if you have those though, the men and woman who 0:17:49.801 --> 0:17:53.401 drive growth across the country and who are responsible for 0:17:53.441 --> 0:17:56.841 big investments will look at this and go wow, okay, 0:17:56.961 --> 0:17:59.081 this is fantastic as well. So you've got to have 0:17:59.121 --> 0:18:02.041 a mixture of both. You've got to have a meaningful 0:18:02.161 --> 0:18:05.681 going for growth agenda that actually does drive growth, but 0:18:05.761 --> 0:18:09.321 you've also got to have the social packages that actually 0:18:09.401 --> 0:18:11.601 the public expect from a government. 0:18:11.361 --> 0:18:13.521 Okay, guys, look, I want to just get you to 0:18:13.761 --> 0:18:15.561 hold fire for a second and we're just going to 0:18:15.601 --> 0:18:16.961 take a quick break and we'll come back with a 0:18:17.001 --> 0:18:18.921 little bit more on this and just a moment where 0:18:18.961 --> 0:18:23.921 with Jordan Williams and Stuart Nash talking about anticipations for 0:18:24.001 --> 0:18:25.761 the budget and a whole bunch of things around that. 0:18:26.281 --> 0:18:27.961 We'll be taking your cause later on in this our 0:18:28.041 --> 0:18:29.521 eight hundred and eighty ten eighty, but we'll be back 0:18:29.521 --> 0:18:37.801 in a tick. It's twenty seven past three. Yes, welcome back. 0:18:37.881 --> 0:18:41.641 We're with Jordan Williams, the Taxpayer Union, Taxpayers Union director 0:18:41.681 --> 0:18:44.201 and former police minister. Stuart Nash is also with us, 0:18:44.401 --> 0:18:47.841 looking ahead to the government. Actually, Jordan, just quickly, so, 0:18:48.161 --> 0:18:49.881 how much do you know about the budget that you 0:18:49.921 --> 0:18:51.681 can't share because you've mentioned you've got a handful of 0:18:51.761 --> 0:18:54.281 embargoed emails there. What do you know that we don't know? 0:18:54.361 --> 0:18:55.881 No, that's just the normal. That's the normal. 0:18:56.321 --> 0:18:58.921 Before you create a scandal, this is the normal media 0:18:59.161 --> 0:19:02.201 unless be No, don't believe me. 0:19:02.241 --> 0:19:04.401 I twist a lot of arms at the behave try 0:19:04.441 --> 0:19:07.001 to okay, won't tell me? 0:19:07.241 --> 0:19:11.761 Okay, well, okay, let's stick with you. Then surprises we've had. 0:19:12.401 --> 0:19:15.521 I don't know historically what the biggest surprise would have been, 0:19:15.841 --> 0:19:19.521 but are you anticipating that Nikola Willison has got any surprises? 0:19:19.521 --> 0:19:21.521 And what would you like it to be? Putting aside 0:19:21.561 --> 0:19:22.761 accelerated depreciation. 0:19:23.921 --> 0:19:26.761 So the surprises I'd love would be that actually we 0:19:27.281 --> 0:19:31.481 see just tough but necessary decisions that we don't continue 0:19:31.561 --> 0:19:34.121 to kick the can down the road. On New Zealand's 0:19:34.161 --> 0:19:37.441 structural deficit. You know, you'd look at the forecasts. The 0:19:37.521 --> 0:19:41.361