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Speaker 1: The rural report on heather duper see Allen Drive.

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Speaker 2: Oh so the country, Jamie McKay is weather's this evening.

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Speaker 2: Good evening, sir good a Jack Such Yeah, nice to chant.

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Speaker 2: Another key global global dairy trade auction coming up tonight.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, of course, last week Fontarah Jack came out

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Speaker 1: with that really good news headlined I guess by the

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Speaker 1: nine dollars forecast milk price for the season we're in

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Speaker 1: at the moment twenty four to five. We're expecting another

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Speaker 1: positive GDT auction tonight because the volumes are starting to

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Speaker 1: fall away seasonally from now on. And incidentally, the milk

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Speaker 1: futures for the current season are sitting at nine dollars twenty.

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Speaker 1: That's all good news. But even better news Jack, if

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Speaker 1: you're an organic dairy farmer, you got paid ten dollars

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Speaker 1: ninety two per kilogram of milk solids for your organic

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Speaker 1: milk this year, which is a record price, surpassing the

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Speaker 1: ten dollars eighty and the twenty two to twenty three

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Speaker 1: season the tenth or the fourth time organic milk has

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Speaker 1: exceeded ten dollars, and the margin between organic and normal milk,

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Speaker 1: it's just the stuff that comes off the average farmers

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Speaker 1: over three dollars, remembering that the payout for the season

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Speaker 1: we've just finished with seven eighty three. So look all

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Speaker 1: and all, look, I know some farmers who are organic

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Speaker 1: and who are a two and they will were not

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Speaker 1: laughing all the way to the bank. It's expensive to make,

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Speaker 1: but they'll be you know, good times.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's good to hear. Hey, the proposed closure

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Speaker 2: of the meat works in Timado is exacerbating the risk

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Speaker 2: that more of these announcements could be made around the country.

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Speaker 2: It feels like a bit of a theme at the moment. Day.

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Speaker 1: Well, yeah, the problem is, and you know, is this

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Speaker 1: going to be the first Is this going to be

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Speaker 1: the first domino to fall? How many other plants might

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Speaker 1: have to close due to excess capacity? And if too

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Speaker 1: many of them closed suddenly, then does the sheep met

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Speaker 1: industry or the red meat industry have enough critical mass

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Speaker 1: to run these Look at it's tough. Kate Ackland, the

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Speaker 1: chair of Beef and Land New Zealand, was on my

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Speaker 1: show today Jack and she's saying this is due to

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Speaker 1: a significant decrease in sheep meat prices over the last

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Speaker 1: few years, coupled with spiraling costs on the farm and

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Speaker 1: in the supply chain. Also there's the forestry argument. And

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Speaker 1: you've got to be careful where you tread on this

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Speaker 1: one at the moment, because the forestry industry in itself

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Speaker 1: having a really tough time at the moment. Businesses are

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Speaker 1: closing down and Gisburne it's the forestry industries are responsible

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Speaker 1: for about a third of the economic activity in the

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Speaker 1: Gisbon Tirafity Poverty Bay region. So tough times indeed. And

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Speaker 1: you know, the sheep farmers are saying that the forestry

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Speaker 1: is responsible for land use change. I think that slowed

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Speaker 1: down to be fair to a fair degree. The forestry,

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Speaker 1: I guess, does have two bites at the cherry jack.

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Speaker 1: There is the log prices all bent very low at

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Speaker 1: the moment, plus the carbon credits you can along the way.

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Speaker 2: I know, at the moment it's just a proposal, But

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Speaker 2: what is your sense for if the plans go ahead

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Speaker 2: and about six hundred workers Alliance Group Smithfield Works lose

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Speaker 2: their job, what is going to be the impact on

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Speaker 2: that community? Intimado huge?

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Speaker 1: I think it's the biggest employer, huge, And you know,

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Speaker 1: like I know, they've got to go through the consultation

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Speaker 1: process check and I don't want to sound hard hearted

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Speaker 1: about this, but this deal is done. I think from

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Speaker 1: the Alliance Group's point of view, there is a silver lining,

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Speaker 1: believe it or not, in mothballing this plant and that

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Speaker 1: Smithfield basically sits in a quite a desirable part of Timaru.

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Speaker 1: The city has come out to meet the meat works,

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Speaker 1: no pun intended, and my understanding is a local developer

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Speaker 1: is going to bowl it all over and build houses there,

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Speaker 1: so instead of having a real cost or an impost,

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Speaker 1: the Alliance Group will possibly come out of this on

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Speaker 1: the right side of the ledger. I think as bad

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Speaker 1: is for the workers of South Canterbury that there's enough

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Speaker 1: capacity in the rest of their processing plants to handle

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Speaker 1: the lambs especially that are going to come forward this season.

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Speaker 1: Remembering Jack that Southland's been hammered by the wettest September

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Speaker 1: on record, There's going to be quite a few less

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Speaker 1: lambs coming to the market this year. Beef and Lamb

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Speaker 1: set a million less prom for slaughter available this year,

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Speaker 1: or that number you can add to that. Because mother

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Speaker 1: nature has played a bit of a cruel hand down South.

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Speaker 2: A million less that's that's that's extraordinary. I for one,

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Speaker 2: headn't appreciated that it was that significant. That is, there's

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Speaker 2: really something.

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Speaker 1: Ah oh well you look at the sheep numbers. Check

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Speaker 1: they are significant. We've got twenty three million sheep.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah yeah, the ninth Yeah is just huge.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah it is. And you know, and that's

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Speaker 1: a million less lambs out of something like about fourteen

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Speaker 1: million available that were born, So it's it's quite a

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Speaker 1: big percentage. But yeah, look that the sheep numbers are

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Speaker 1: in decline. Unless the prices and I proved, especially for

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Speaker 1: lamb remembering walls a bit of a dog at the moment,

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Speaker 1: those numbers will continue to decline. And it's sad that

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Speaker 1: an industry on which this country was founded, wool and

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Speaker 1: meat and sheep meat, is really struggling at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it really is. Hey, thank you so much,

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Speaker 2: Jamie appreciated as it always Jamie McKay, Host of the Country,

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Speaker 2: there with us this evening. Just so you know, there

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Speaker 2: has been a four point nine magnitude earthquake at the

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Speaker 2: top of the South Island this evening. It struck about

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Speaker 2: twenty five k's northeast of seven, so that's in Marlboro. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: the depth was about nine k's which is relatively shallow,

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Speaker 2: means a lot of people would have felt it. In fact,

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Speaker 2: I think Gnett recorded more than ten thousand people saying

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Speaker 2: they had felt the shake around the Marlborough, Nelson Wellington

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Speaker 2: regions shortly before six o'clock this evening. So anyway, we've

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Speaker 2: got the news team on that they're checking for any

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Speaker 2: reports to damage or anything. At the moment, doesn't sound

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Speaker 2: like there are major reports, but will make sure we

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Speaker 2: update you in the news very shortly. Right now, twenty

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Speaker 2: four minutes past six year with Jack Tame on Newstalk

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Speaker 2: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to

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Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow

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Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio