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Speaker 1: As various parts of the economy sparked life, the old

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Speaker 1: employment side of the equation, as we mentioned with Andrew earlier,

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Speaker 1: is still to feel upbeat. Confidence levels at their lowest

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Speaker 1: levels since September of twenty twenty. It all comes from

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Speaker 1: the west Pac mcderm at Miller survey show's job availability

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Speaker 1: remained soft, but it's not all bad. EMA's head of Advocacy,

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Speaker 1: Finance and Strategy, Allan McDonald back with us Ellen Morning, Morning, Mine.

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Speaker 1: So I read in the report that it's going to peak.

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Speaker 1: They think at five unemployment this is peak at five

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Speaker 1: point three percent. We're almost there. So can I say

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Speaker 1: the worst is almost behind us? Are about to be,

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Speaker 1: I hope.

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Speaker 2: So we're a little surprised in February where the inquiries

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Speaker 2: to our advice line around redundancies and restructures actually pop

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Speaker 2: back up to new record levels. Now we're kind of

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Speaker 2: hopeful that just that December January period where people have

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Speaker 2: gone away and had a good look at things and

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Speaker 2: made the tough calls, but some of the numbers heading

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Speaker 2: in the right direction, that a lot of our members

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Speaker 2: again well just been out on the road still doing

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Speaker 2: it really hard. So just that lack of confidence still

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Speaker 2: in act, hiring and expanding and all those good things

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Speaker 2: that we need to get going.

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Speaker 1: And are they literally doing it hard or are they

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Speaker 1: just telling you they're doing it hard, because I always

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Speaker 1: worry about surveys that talk about perception.

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Speaker 2: No, I think they are literally doing it hard. I

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Speaker 2: think about sixty more than sixty percent of firms actually

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Speaker 2: degre staff in the last year, and that's always a

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Speaker 2: tough decision. Some sectors are popping up quite well. You know,

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Speaker 2: our exports sector, particularly around the primary industry, is doing

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Speaker 2: pretty well, and some of our smart tech innovators are

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Speaker 2: getting strong orders. But other other areas, the usual suspects,

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Speaker 2: you know, tourism, hospo, construction still a bit flat. Manufacturers

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Speaker 2: had a really rough patch as well. Finally on the turn,

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Speaker 2: but their higher expectations and maybe later in the year

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Speaker 2: rather than sooner.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, man, manufacturers back in positive. Services is back in

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Speaker 1: the negative. Do you see those broad sense that by

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Speaker 1: the end of the year we're going to be okay ish.

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Speaker 2: That's what the indicators are telling us, and that's what

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Speaker 2: some of the confidence surveys are telling us as well.

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Speaker 2: They're saying, look not so good now, but maybe six

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Speaker 2: to twelve months. I think you've got a huge proportion

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Speaker 2: of mortgages coming off short term fixed terms in the

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Speaker 2: next six to twelve months. When that money starts to

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Speaker 2: flow into pockets, because consumer confidence is all over the

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Speaker 2: place as well, When that money starts to flow into pockets,

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Speaker 2: I think that's when you'll see some real confidence movement

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Speaker 2: in those some of those numbers and finally turn the corner.

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Speaker 2: But it's a it's a super tanker turn, it's not

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Speaker 2: a jet boat turn.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff, all right, must catch up with Allen Allen

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Speaker 1: McDonald or you mahead a bit because you finance some strategy.

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Speaker 2: For more from the Mike Asking Breakfast, listen live to

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Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow

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Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.