Speaker 1: Kilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Prime
Speaker 1: Minister Christopher Luxon is off to the United States this week.
Speaker 1: The world's largest economy and our second biggest trading partner,
Speaker 1: is therefore what's described as DC's diplomatic super Bowl, where
Speaker 1: dozens of foreign leaders will descend upon Washington for the
Speaker 1: NATO summer. A number of bilaterals with other NATO leaders
Speaker 1: is on the cards, as well as a spattering of
Speaker 1: sideline meetings with top US politicians. Today on the front Page,
Speaker 1: former NZ Ambassador to the US Tim Grocer is with
Speaker 1: us to discuss how important tapping into the US market
Speaker 1: is and what movers and shakers Luxon will shake hands with. Tim.
Speaker 1: It's an intriguing time for Christopher Lackson's trip to the US,
Speaker 1: isn't it, given both what's happening with the US and
Speaker 1: European politics as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Intriguing in the sense of that old political cliche from
Speaker 3: China centuries ago. May you live in interesting times? Is
Speaker 3: the word interesting doesn't necessarily mean positive, So we are
Speaker 3: living in very interesting times, and I think it gives
Speaker 3: the Prime Minister an ideal opportunity to actually take the
Speaker 3: pulse himself. I mean, all very well, people like me,
Speaker 3: you've been involved in foreign policy briefing as the Prime
Speaker 3: Minister in Wellington, but it's quite another matter to actually
Speaker 3: get there at the highest level of international politics and
Speaker 3: take the temperature himself. So I'm very very pleased he's
Speaker 3: got this opportunity. Actually, there's a number of related themes
Speaker 3: running through this visit, in the opportunities he has. So
Speaker 3: first of all, the summit itself takes place against the
Speaker 3: background of the essentially, as I read stalemate in Ukraine
Speaker 3: and the end of this, I think fantasy that the
Speaker 3: Ukrainians with the aid of the nature plus countries including US,
Speaker 3: all of which are totally support Of course I support this,
Speaker 3: but in my opinion, it was always a fantasy on
Speaker 3: steroids to think you could drive the last Russian soldier
Speaker 3: out of the entire of Ukraine, including Crimea and the
Speaker 3: Donbas region, and then suddenly the Russians would stop fighting
Speaker 3: and that would be all nice. I think it is
Speaker 3: now clear that that was always the fantasy. It's now
Speaker 3: dead as a reality, and I think the meeting itself,
Speaker 3: while it will never talk as frankly as as I'm
Speaker 3: talking in public, but there'll be a great deal of
Speaker 3: serious discussion going on in the martyrs. Don't confuse what
Speaker 3: I'm saying with lack of support. I'm talking about reality
Speaker 3: as opposed to wishful thinking. The second element in this will,
Speaker 3: of course, the opportunity not just to meet a range
Speaker 3: of leaders of the most important Western countries. Western in
Speaker 3: the political sense not no longer really a geographic term,
Speaker 3: and that includes of course the new British Prime Minister,
Speaker 3: which is an important person to New Zealand, always has
Speaker 3: been and always will be. But it'll be also interesting
Speaker 3: to see what their private take on the future is
Speaker 3: considering what is going on in the biggest political theater
Speaker 3: of all, which is the US presidential election, and who
Speaker 3: knows what is going to happen in the next few days.
Speaker 3: But you read the same things that I read the Economist,
Speaker 3: the New York Times saying it is time to recognize reality.
Speaker 3: President Biden would be eighty six at the end of
Speaker 3: his office. And then you've also read all the opposing
Speaker 3: arguments from the Biden camp. But if it goes on
Speaker 3: in this state of uncertainty, leading up to the Democratic
Speaker 3: Party's convention on the twentieth of August. He's going to
Speaker 3: be able to sense what the other leaders are thinking.
Speaker 3: I've had a few of my political contacts from my
Speaker 3: days as ambassador in touch with me over the last
Speaker 3: few days. It's clear that the odds of a Trump
Speaker 3: presidency have increased, and it's also very clear from what
Speaker 3: I'm being told that a number of the countries are
Speaker 3: quietly polishing up their credentials with Trump personalities because we
Speaker 3: may have to deal with this president again.
Speaker 1: I guess whether we'll hear about it or not is
Speaker 1: the question. But I guess there'll be, no doubt there'll
Speaker 1: be a lot of chatter, especially in private, about what
Speaker 1: the potential return of Trump might mean for NATO in
Speaker 1: other countries.
Speaker 3: None of what I'm talking about will emerge in public,
Speaker 3: un least the whole thing blows up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, how big of a shadow will the return of Trump?
Speaker 1: Asked I guess over the whole summit.
Speaker 3: Well, it must cast a shadow because of what he
Speaker 3: said when he was a president. So when he was president,
Speaker 3: I can't recall whether it was I think it was
Speaker 3: twenty seventeen. In his first year he went to Russia
Speaker 3: declared Putin was not a threat. The Russian had invaded
Speaker 3: Ukraine back in twenty fourteen, when they came into Crimea.
Speaker 3: I was literally detained in Moscow airport that weekend over
Speaker 3: the decision, which I totally agreed to withdraw me as
Speaker 3: Trade minister immediately from Moscow after they invaded Crimea. But
Speaker 3: the decision to invade Crimea, I think is generally seen
Speaker 3: as a different order of threat to the later decision
Speaker 3: Putin took to invade western Ukraine. Now Trump went to
Speaker 3: Russia declared in public Putin was not a threat. Clearly
Speaker 3: the wrong call, And there he made this very very
Speaker 3: challenging statement about the sanctity of what is called Article five.
Speaker 3: Article five of NATO is the central commitment that an
Speaker 3: attack on any one of the twenty seven or twenty
Speaker 3: eight are call NATO countries is an attack on us
Speaker 3: all and we will respond. So it's the core collective
Speaker 3: security commitment, and by a country mile, the United States
Speaker 3: is the most important enforcer of that commitment. So when
Speaker 3: the President of the United States makes that statement, you
Speaker 3: can imagine what that coused in terms of ri course, they.
Speaker 2: Asked me that question. One of the presidents of a
Speaker 2: big country stood up said well, sir, if we don't
Speaker 2: pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us?
Speaker 2: I said no, I would not protect you. In fact,
Speaker 2: I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.
Speaker 2: You got to pay, you got to pay your bills.
Speaker 3: And I will never forget. There was a massive patch
Speaker 3: up job by NATO after that. I was ambassador in
Speaker 3: Washington and I remember going to a black tie dinner
Speaker 3: with hundreds of people, all the NATO plus ambassadors at Stockenberg,
Speaker 3: the Secretary General of NATO, other leaders all got up
Speaker 3: and said, there's no questioning of the strength of our commitment.
Speaker 3: And then what I remember is that then Vice President
Speaker 3: Hence got up and said made the same speech, and
Speaker 3: there was definitely silence because everybody is thinking, mister vice president,
Speaker 3: it really doesn't matter what you say if your president
Speaker 3: and your boss has said something different. So if you
Speaker 3: ask me, is this going to cause concern? Unquestionably?
Speaker 1: Well, you were the ambassador in Washington during Trump's first years. Hey,
Speaker 1: what should our government be doing to prepare for another
Speaker 1: Trump term?
Speaker 3: We should be doing exactly what I think the government
Speaker 3: is doing, which is maintained absolutely the possible relationships with
Speaker 3: the current Democratic administration while maintaining avenues that we can
Speaker 3: open up with a second Trump presidency if necessary. People
Speaker 3: who are not involved in diplomacy don't necessarily understand the
Speaker 3: core point here. You deal with what you have. Whatever
Speaker 3: people's opinions on mister Trump might or might not be,
Speaker 3: it will be essential for the New Zealand government if
Speaker 3: he becomes the president again, to maintain as good and
Speaker 3: as correct a relationship with the presidency as possible because
Speaker 3: this is fundamentally still the most important country in the world.
Speaker 3: There's nothing that can be done right now. It's just
Speaker 3: mentally prepare yourself for what could be another very challenging
Speaker 3: and unorthodox presidency.
Speaker 1: While Christopher Luxon is over there, it's highly doubtful that
Speaker 1: he'll be able to get a meeting with Joe Biden
Speaker 1: or in fact Donald Trump, right, but he is going
Speaker 1: to be meeting with some Republican and Democratic politicians while
Speaker 1: over there, I understand there could be meetings with the
Speaker 1: likes of Ted Cruz, John orsof Gavin Newsom, just to
Speaker 1: name a few. How important are these meetings?
Speaker 3: Very important? Ted Cruz, as you know, stood against Donald
Speaker 3: Trump for the candidacy in the first place, but he
Speaker 3: remains a very, very influential Republican on the right of
Speaker 3: the Republican Party, Gavin Newsom. From every possible angle, he
Speaker 3: seems like the rising star of the next generation of
Speaker 3: Democratic Party leaders and often mentioned should mister Biden finally
Speaker 3: decide not to proceed with his candidate over the next
Speaker 3: six weeks leading up to the Democratic Party convention. While
Speaker 3: I suppose the conventional second choice would be the vice president,
Speaker 3: he's certainly the next name in everybody's dance list.
Speaker 1: While also at the NATO summit, Luxelm will be meeting
Speaker 1: with his Australian, Japanese and Korean counterparts as what's been
Speaker 1: called the Indo Pacific four. It's the third time this
Speaker 1: meeting has taken place. How significant is this alliance.
Speaker 3: Well, it's very significant. And the government, along with the
Speaker 3: predecessor Labor government led by mister Hipkins, is exploring what
Speaker 3: relationship we have not with the core of this that's
Speaker 3: this jargon called Tier one and Tier two, but some
Speaker 3: type of partnership. Look, the fundamental reality here is that
Speaker 3: involves Australia and one New Zealand has an independent foreign policy.
Speaker 3: At the end of the day, the single most important
Speaker 3: country by a mile to US is Australia. So I
Speaker 3: think it's entirely sensible what both the previous and the
Speaker 3: current government did in exploring some type of relationship. I mean,
Speaker 3: this is well short of the heavy duty defense side
Speaker 3: of this relationship, but essential that we just keep in
Speaker 3: touch with these people.
Speaker 1: Will you bring up defense, because a main issue or
Speaker 1: big defense issue for New Zealand and in fact Australia
Speaker 1: at the moment is around China, our relationship with China
Speaker 1: and other superpowers and the tensions between them and our
Speaker 1: other allies.
Speaker 2: Orcus as an agreement clearly aimed at China, our major
Speaker 2: trading partner.
Speaker 3: We're making very strong ruises that they're going to join it.
Speaker 2: We think that's a major shift in foreign policy.
Speaker 1: Would you go to the public to get their approval? Again,
Speaker 1: it's just way too premature. I know this isn't necessarily
Speaker 1: an Aucus convention per se, but do you think that
Speaker 1: could be a side discussion there?
Speaker 3: Oh, it's central to the whole issue. I mean, these
Speaker 3: can't be divorced and our people. I've said in many
Speaker 3: speeches and many comments on this New Zealand must maintain
Speaker 3: as good a relationship with the two superfars as possible
Speaker 3: and do whatever we can to avoid being forced to
Speaker 3: make finally a choice. Now, I've used the old cliche
Speaker 3: in the past about if you want to be in
Speaker 3: the circus, you have to be able to ride two
Speaker 3: horses at once. That's never easy. And if you can
Speaker 3: use the visual metaphor of it is, if the two
Speaker 3: horses part company on crucial issues, we may be forced
Speaker 3: to make a choice, but we should delay that as
Speaker 3: far as we possibly can, because China is way, way
Speaker 3: more important to employment and to our economy than the
Speaker 3: United States. It's about three or four times as large
Speaker 3: a market for New Zealand as is the United States.
Speaker 3: And yet the United States we have this history which
Speaker 3: has many, many complex and positive elements to it. The
Speaker 3: dilemma that we face is not a dilemma that little
Speaker 3: New Zealand faces. It's a dilemma that every country in
Speaker 3: the world that has important economic relationships with China faces.
Speaker 3: And I was very much struck by what Gavin Newsom,
Speaker 3: the Governor of California, said in Beijing about five months ago.
Speaker 3: I think when he was the first governor of any
Speaker 3: American state to visit Beijing and meet the president of China.
Speaker 3: President she his statements on China and California's unwillingness to
Speaker 3: follow this decoupling from China strategy could have been a
Speaker 3: statement that New Zealand could have made. Honestly, So, while
Speaker 3: it's a huge problem, it's not at all a New
Speaker 3: Zealand problem. This is a global problem as these two
Speaker 3: superpowers strive to find a modus for vendi between the
Speaker 3: two of them, and our problem is shared by just
Speaker 3: about everybody.
Speaker 1: We often hear commentators make a big deal about just
Speaker 1: what you're saying, us being caught in the middle of
Speaker 1: between the West in quotation marks and China from your
Speaker 1: ex experience as an ambassador, is it really as bad
Speaker 1: as that?
Speaker 3: It gets tough at times when extreme statements are made
Speaker 3: by one side or the other. Yes, it gets tough,
Speaker 3: But this is what politics is for. And we've just
Speaker 3: got to be creative, and we have been creative in
Speaker 3: the past, and I'm sure we've got very good people
Speaker 3: in the field that we will continue to naborate as
Speaker 3: best we can. It's, as I said, Muzine doesn't have
Speaker 3: a particular problem. This is something that the world has
Speaker 3: and fortunately there are clear signs in the last six
Speaker 3: months of the sharp difficulties between Australia and China being repaired.
Speaker 3: And then while the Foreign Minister has done I think
Speaker 3: an outstanding job and the tension seemed to be the motion.
Speaker 3: So the main point is when uzine and just think
Speaker 3: about this is not to think this is particularly a
Speaker 3: problem for MW Zealand. No, no, it's a problem for everybody.
Speaker 1: It seems like the immenseness of the u US economy
Speaker 1: isn't lost on Luxon. He's made a point of saying
Speaker 1: it's the largest economy in the world, our second biggest
Speaker 1: trading partner, and even pinpointed California as being the fifth
Speaker 1: biggest economy in the world if it were a country.
Speaker 1: How vital is it for New Zealand to tap into
Speaker 1: this market and essentially have Christopher Luxon as our number
Speaker 1: one salesman.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean it's obviously very, very important, and this
Speaker 3: is not to try and avoid the issue. It's just
Speaker 3: remember that as an export market, China was about three
Speaker 3: times as important to New Zealand. So the balancing act
Speaker 3: must continue. But of course the United States is hugely
Speaker 3: important to us in all their mentions, and not just
Speaker 3: to be measured in terms of proved exports either. I mean,
Speaker 3: we have many other interests in the economic sphere with
Speaker 3: the United States, in terms of energy cooperation, a whole
Speaker 3: range of issues that we work so closely with the
Speaker 3: United States that we do not do that with China
Speaker 3: to the same extent because of the linkages. To quote
Speaker 3: John Key's famous statement of this issue, He's asked to
Speaker 3: compare the relationship New Zealand has with China with that
Speaker 3: of the United States. Said, well, with China, they buy stuff,
Speaker 3: we sell stuff. With the United States, it's a little
Speaker 3: more complicated.
Speaker 1: And tim what would success look like for Luxon at
Speaker 1: the end of this summer. Does he necessarily need to
Speaker 1: bring home some sort of deal or announcement to make
Speaker 1: it work or are those backroom kind of meetings and
Speaker 1: talks with other counterparts and of course other US politicians.
Speaker 1: Is that really what counts here?
Speaker 3: Absolutely the latter. I'm not involved in the planning, so
Speaker 3: there maybe some specific initiatives we'll hear about when and
Speaker 3: if they are completed. But the real issue here is
Speaker 3: in terms of his relationships with other leaders, their perception
Speaker 3: of New Zealand through their meetings with our most important
Speaker 3: political leader. So that's what this is really about.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Tim. That's it for this episode
Speaker 1: of the Front Page. You can read more about today's
Speaker 1: stories and extensive news coverage at enzed Herald dot co
Speaker 1: dot z. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Siles
Speaker 1: with sound engineer Patty Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to
Speaker 1: the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts,
Speaker 1: and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.