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Speaker 1: Kilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,

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Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister Christopher Luxon is off to the United States this week.

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Speaker 1: The world's largest economy and our second biggest trading partner,

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Speaker 1: is therefore what's described as DC's diplomatic super Bowl, where

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Speaker 1: dozens of foreign leaders will descend upon Washington for the

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Speaker 1: NATO summer. A number of bilaterals with other NATO leaders

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Speaker 1: is on the cards, as well as a spattering of

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Speaker 1: sideline meetings with top US politicians. Today on the front Page,

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Speaker 1: former NZ Ambassador to the US Tim Grocer is with

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Speaker 1: us to discuss how important tapping into the US market

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Speaker 1: is and what movers and shakers Luxon will shake hands with. Tim.

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Speaker 1: It's an intriguing time for Christopher Lackson's trip to the US,

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Speaker 1: isn't it, given both what's happening with the US and

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Speaker 1: European politics as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Intriguing in the sense of that old political cliche from

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Speaker 3: China centuries ago. May you live in interesting times? Is

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Speaker 3: the word interesting doesn't necessarily mean positive, So we are

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Speaker 3: living in very interesting times, and I think it gives

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Speaker 3: the Prime Minister an ideal opportunity to actually take the

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Speaker 3: pulse himself. I mean, all very well, people like me,

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Speaker 3: you've been involved in foreign policy briefing as the Prime

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Speaker 3: Minister in Wellington, but it's quite another matter to actually

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Speaker 3: get there at the highest level of international politics and

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Speaker 3: take the temperature himself. So I'm very very pleased he's

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Speaker 3: got this opportunity. Actually, there's a number of related themes

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Speaker 3: running through this visit, in the opportunities he has. So

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Speaker 3: first of all, the summit itself takes place against the

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Speaker 3: background of the essentially, as I read stalemate in Ukraine

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Speaker 3: and the end of this, I think fantasy that the

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Speaker 3: Ukrainians with the aid of the nature plus countries including US,

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Speaker 3: all of which are totally support Of course I support this,

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Speaker 3: but in my opinion, it was always a fantasy on

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Speaker 3: steroids to think you could drive the last Russian soldier

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Speaker 3: out of the entire of Ukraine, including Crimea and the

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Speaker 3: Donbas region, and then suddenly the Russians would stop fighting

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Speaker 3: and that would be all nice. I think it is

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Speaker 3: now clear that that was always the fantasy. It's now

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Speaker 3: dead as a reality, and I think the meeting itself,

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Speaker 3: while it will never talk as frankly as as I'm

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Speaker 3: talking in public, but there'll be a great deal of

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Speaker 3: serious discussion going on in the martyrs. Don't confuse what

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Speaker 3: I'm saying with lack of support. I'm talking about reality

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Speaker 3: as opposed to wishful thinking. The second element in this will,

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Speaker 3: of course, the opportunity not just to meet a range

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Speaker 3: of leaders of the most important Western countries. Western in

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Speaker 3: the political sense not no longer really a geographic term,

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Speaker 3: and that includes of course the new British Prime Minister,

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Speaker 3: which is an important person to New Zealand, always has

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Speaker 3: been and always will be. But it'll be also interesting

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Speaker 3: to see what their private take on the future is

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Speaker 3: considering what is going on in the biggest political theater

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Speaker 3: of all, which is the US presidential election, and who

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Speaker 3: knows what is going to happen in the next few days.

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Speaker 3: But you read the same things that I read the Economist,

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Speaker 3: the New York Times saying it is time to recognize reality.

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Speaker 3: President Biden would be eighty six at the end of

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Speaker 3: his office. And then you've also read all the opposing

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Speaker 3: arguments from the Biden camp. But if it goes on

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Speaker 3: in this state of uncertainty, leading up to the Democratic

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Speaker 3: Party's convention on the twentieth of August. He's going to

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Speaker 3: be able to sense what the other leaders are thinking.

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Speaker 3: I've had a few of my political contacts from my

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Speaker 3: days as ambassador in touch with me over the last

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Speaker 3: few days. It's clear that the odds of a Trump

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Speaker 3: presidency have increased, and it's also very clear from what

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Speaker 3: I'm being told that a number of the countries are

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Speaker 3: quietly polishing up their credentials with Trump personalities because we

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Speaker 3: may have to deal with this president again.

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Speaker 1: I guess whether we'll hear about it or not is

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Speaker 1: the question. But I guess there'll be, no doubt there'll

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Speaker 1: be a lot of chatter, especially in private, about what

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Speaker 1: the potential return of Trump might mean for NATO in

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Speaker 1: other countries.

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Speaker 3: None of what I'm talking about will emerge in public,

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Speaker 3: un least the whole thing blows up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, how big of a shadow will the return of Trump?

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Speaker 1: Asked I guess over the whole summit.

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Speaker 3: Well, it must cast a shadow because of what he

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Speaker 3: said when he was a president. So when he was president,

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Speaker 3: I can't recall whether it was I think it was

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Speaker 3: twenty seventeen. In his first year he went to Russia

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Speaker 3: declared Putin was not a threat. The Russian had invaded

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Speaker 3: Ukraine back in twenty fourteen, when they came into Crimea.

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Speaker 3: I was literally detained in Moscow airport that weekend over

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Speaker 3: the decision, which I totally agreed to withdraw me as

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Speaker 3: Trade minister immediately from Moscow after they invaded Crimea. But

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Speaker 3: the decision to invade Crimea, I think is generally seen

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Speaker 3: as a different order of threat to the later decision

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Speaker 3: Putin took to invade western Ukraine. Now Trump went to

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Speaker 3: Russia declared in public Putin was not a threat. Clearly

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Speaker 3: the wrong call, And there he made this very very

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Speaker 3: challenging statement about the sanctity of what is called Article five.

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Speaker 3: Article five of NATO is the central commitment that an

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Speaker 3: attack on any one of the twenty seven or twenty

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Speaker 3: eight are call NATO countries is an attack on us

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Speaker 3: all and we will respond. So it's the core collective

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Speaker 3: security commitment, and by a country mile, the United States

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Speaker 3: is the most important enforcer of that commitment. So when

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Speaker 3: the President of the United States makes that statement, you

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Speaker 3: can imagine what that coused in terms of ri course, they.

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Speaker 2: Asked me that question. One of the presidents of a

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Speaker 2: big country stood up said well, sir, if we don't

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Speaker 2: pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us?

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Speaker 2: I said no, I would not protect you. In fact,

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Speaker 2: I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.

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Speaker 2: You got to pay, you got to pay your bills.

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Speaker 3: And I will never forget. There was a massive patch

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Speaker 3: up job by NATO after that. I was ambassador in

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Speaker 3: Washington and I remember going to a black tie dinner

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Speaker 3: with hundreds of people, all the NATO plus ambassadors at Stockenberg,

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Speaker 3: the Secretary General of NATO, other leaders all got up

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Speaker 3: and said, there's no questioning of the strength of our commitment.

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Speaker 3: And then what I remember is that then Vice President

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Speaker 3: Hence got up and said made the same speech, and

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Speaker 3: there was definitely silence because everybody is thinking, mister vice president,

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Speaker 3: it really doesn't matter what you say if your president

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Speaker 3: and your boss has said something different. So if you

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Speaker 3: ask me, is this going to cause concern? Unquestionably?

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Speaker 1: Well, you were the ambassador in Washington during Trump's first years. Hey,

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Speaker 1: what should our government be doing to prepare for another

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Speaker 1: Trump term?

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Speaker 3: We should be doing exactly what I think the government

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Speaker 3: is doing, which is maintained absolutely the possible relationships with

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Speaker 3: the current Democratic administration while maintaining avenues that we can

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Speaker 3: open up with a second Trump presidency if necessary. People

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Speaker 3: who are not involved in diplomacy don't necessarily understand the

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Speaker 3: core point here. You deal with what you have. Whatever

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Speaker 3: people's opinions on mister Trump might or might not be,

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Speaker 3: it will be essential for the New Zealand government if

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Speaker 3: he becomes the president again, to maintain as good and

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Speaker 3: as correct a relationship with the presidency as possible because

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Speaker 3: this is fundamentally still the most important country in the world.

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Speaker 3: There's nothing that can be done right now. It's just

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Speaker 3: mentally prepare yourself for what could be another very challenging

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Speaker 3: and unorthodox presidency.

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Speaker 1: While Christopher Luxon is over there, it's highly doubtful that

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Speaker 1: he'll be able to get a meeting with Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: or in fact Donald Trump, right, but he is going

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Speaker 1: to be meeting with some Republican and Democratic politicians while

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Speaker 1: over there, I understand there could be meetings with the

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Speaker 1: likes of Ted Cruz, John orsof Gavin Newsom, just to

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Speaker 1: name a few. How important are these meetings?

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Speaker 3: Very important? Ted Cruz, as you know, stood against Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump for the candidacy in the first place, but he

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Speaker 3: remains a very, very influential Republican on the right of

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Speaker 3: the Republican Party, Gavin Newsom. From every possible angle, he

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Speaker 3: seems like the rising star of the next generation of

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Speaker 3: Democratic Party leaders and often mentioned should mister Biden finally

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Speaker 3: decide not to proceed with his candidate over the next

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Speaker 3: six weeks leading up to the Democratic Party convention. While

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Speaker 3: I suppose the conventional second choice would be the vice president,

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Speaker 3: he's certainly the next name in everybody's dance list.

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Speaker 1: While also at the NATO summit, Luxelm will be meeting

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Speaker 1: with his Australian, Japanese and Korean counterparts as what's been

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Speaker 1: called the Indo Pacific four. It's the third time this

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Speaker 1: meeting has taken place. How significant is this alliance.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's very significant. And the government, along with the

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Speaker 3: predecessor Labor government led by mister Hipkins, is exploring what

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Speaker 3: relationship we have not with the core of this that's

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Speaker 3: this jargon called Tier one and Tier two, but some

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Speaker 3: type of partnership. Look, the fundamental reality here is that

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Speaker 3: involves Australia and one New Zealand has an independent foreign policy.

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Speaker 3: At the end of the day, the single most important

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Speaker 3: country by a mile to US is Australia. So I

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Speaker 3: think it's entirely sensible what both the previous and the

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Speaker 3: current government did in exploring some type of relationship. I mean,

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Speaker 3: this is well short of the heavy duty defense side

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Speaker 3: of this relationship, but essential that we just keep in

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Speaker 3: touch with these people.

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Speaker 1: Will you bring up defense, because a main issue or

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Speaker 1: big defense issue for New Zealand and in fact Australia

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Speaker 1: at the moment is around China, our relationship with China

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Speaker 1: and other superpowers and the tensions between them and our

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Speaker 1: other allies.

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Speaker 2: Orcus as an agreement clearly aimed at China, our major

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Speaker 2: trading partner.

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Speaker 3: We're making very strong ruises that they're going to join it.

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Speaker 2: We think that's a major shift in foreign policy.

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Speaker 1: Would you go to the public to get their approval? Again,

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Speaker 1: it's just way too premature. I know this isn't necessarily

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Speaker 1: an Aucus convention per se, but do you think that

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Speaker 1: could be a side discussion there?

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Speaker 3: Oh, it's central to the whole issue. I mean, these

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Speaker 3: can't be divorced and our people. I've said in many

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Speaker 3: speeches and many comments on this New Zealand must maintain

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Speaker 3: as good a relationship with the two superfars as possible

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Speaker 3: and do whatever we can to avoid being forced to

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Speaker 3: make finally a choice. Now, I've used the old cliche

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Speaker 3: in the past about if you want to be in

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Speaker 3: the circus, you have to be able to ride two

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Speaker 3: horses at once. That's never easy. And if you can

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Speaker 3: use the visual metaphor of it is, if the two

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Speaker 3: horses part company on crucial issues, we may be forced

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Speaker 3: to make a choice, but we should delay that as

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Speaker 3: far as we possibly can, because China is way, way

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Speaker 3: more important to employment and to our economy than the

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Speaker 3: United States. It's about three or four times as large

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Speaker 3: a market for New Zealand as is the United States.

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Speaker 3: And yet the United States we have this history which

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Speaker 3: has many, many complex and positive elements to it. The

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Speaker 3: dilemma that we face is not a dilemma that little

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Speaker 3: New Zealand faces. It's a dilemma that every country in

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Speaker 3: the world that has important economic relationships with China faces.

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Speaker 3: And I was very much struck by what Gavin Newsom,

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Speaker 3: the Governor of California, said in Beijing about five months ago.

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Speaker 3: I think when he was the first governor of any

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Speaker 3: American state to visit Beijing and meet the president of China.

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Speaker 3: President she his statements on China and California's unwillingness to

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Speaker 3: follow this decoupling from China strategy could have been a

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Speaker 3: statement that New Zealand could have made. Honestly, So, while

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Speaker 3: it's a huge problem, it's not at all a New

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Speaker 3: Zealand problem. This is a global problem as these two

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Speaker 3: superpowers strive to find a modus for vendi between the

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Speaker 3: two of them, and our problem is shared by just

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Speaker 3: about everybody.

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Speaker 1: We often hear commentators make a big deal about just

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Speaker 1: what you're saying, us being caught in the middle of

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Speaker 1: between the West in quotation marks and China from your

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Speaker 1: ex experience as an ambassador, is it really as bad

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Speaker 1: as that?

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Speaker 3: It gets tough at times when extreme statements are made

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Speaker 3: by one side or the other. Yes, it gets tough,

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Speaker 3: But this is what politics is for. And we've just

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Speaker 3: got to be creative, and we have been creative in

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Speaker 3: the past, and I'm sure we've got very good people

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Speaker 3: in the field that we will continue to naborate as

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Speaker 3: best we can. It's, as I said, Muzine doesn't have

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Speaker 3: a particular problem. This is something that the world has

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Speaker 3: and fortunately there are clear signs in the last six

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Speaker 3: months of the sharp difficulties between Australia and China being repaired.

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Speaker 3: And then while the Foreign Minister has done I think

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Speaker 3: an outstanding job and the tension seemed to be the motion.

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Speaker 3: So the main point is when uzine and just think

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Speaker 3: about this is not to think this is particularly a

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Speaker 3: problem for MW Zealand. No, no, it's a problem for everybody.

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Speaker 1: It seems like the immenseness of the u US economy

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Speaker 1: isn't lost on Luxon. He's made a point of saying

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Speaker 1: it's the largest economy in the world, our second biggest

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Speaker 1: trading partner, and even pinpointed California as being the fifth

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Speaker 1: biggest economy in the world if it were a country.

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Speaker 1: How vital is it for New Zealand to tap into

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Speaker 1: this market and essentially have Christopher Luxon as our number

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Speaker 1: one salesman.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean it's obviously very, very important, and this

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Speaker 3: is not to try and avoid the issue. It's just

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Speaker 3: remember that as an export market, China was about three

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Speaker 3: times as important to New Zealand. So the balancing act

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Speaker 3: must continue. But of course the United States is hugely

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Speaker 3: important to us in all their mentions, and not just

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Speaker 3: to be measured in terms of proved exports either. I mean,

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Speaker 3: we have many other interests in the economic sphere with

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Speaker 3: the United States, in terms of energy cooperation, a whole

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Speaker 3: range of issues that we work so closely with the

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Speaker 3: United States that we do not do that with China

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Speaker 3: to the same extent because of the linkages. To quote

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Speaker 3: John Key's famous statement of this issue, He's asked to

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Speaker 3: compare the relationship New Zealand has with China with that

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Speaker 3: of the United States. Said, well, with China, they buy stuff,

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Speaker 3: we sell stuff. With the United States, it's a little

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Speaker 3: more complicated.

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Speaker 1: And tim what would success look like for Luxon at

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Speaker 1: the end of this summer. Does he necessarily need to

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Speaker 1: bring home some sort of deal or announcement to make

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Speaker 1: it work or are those backroom kind of meetings and

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Speaker 1: talks with other counterparts and of course other US politicians.

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Speaker 1: Is that really what counts here?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely the latter. I'm not involved in the planning, so

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Speaker 3: there maybe some specific initiatives we'll hear about when and

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Speaker 3: if they are completed. But the real issue here is

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Speaker 3: in terms of his relationships with other leaders, their perception

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Speaker 3: of New Zealand through their meetings with our most important

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Speaker 3: political leader. So that's what this is really about.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Tim. That's it for this episode

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Speaker 1: of the Front Page. You can read more about today's

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Speaker 1: stories and extensive news coverage at enzed Herald dot co

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Speaker 1: dot z. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Siles

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Speaker 1: with sound engineer Patty Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.