1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,120 Speaker 1: Is Get to Shane Soley with Harmber Asset Management for 2 00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:03,280 Speaker 1: a market updates Shane good. 3 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:04,560 Speaker 2: Evening, get it right. 4 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: So any reaction from markets to Trump and his Greenland 5 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:09,039 Speaker 1: tariff threat? 6 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:11,559 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, look the potential for a bit of a 7 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 3: risk off start to the week after mister Trump announced 8 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 3: tariffs on eight European nations. 9 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 2: Greenland is sold to the US, and then of course 10 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 2: the Europeans have come out and with their own response. 11 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 3: This what we're seeing in the futures market for the 12 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 3: US and European shear markets. This has shown what markets 13 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 3: expect to happen is weaker markets. The US market may 14 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 3: be down about this is just under one percent, European 15 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 3: markets just over one percent. The US markets are closed 16 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 3: tonight for Martin Luther King Days. It'll actually be choosed 17 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 3: to be the full reaction. But look, our market's here locally, 18 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 3: Asia Pacific down between half and one percent. In the 19 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 3: sheer market, the market down one percent on ten year 20 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,840 Speaker 3: bonds zero point five percent to four point five percent. 21 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 3: I think you know we're getting used to these Trumpet 22 00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 3: policy tape bombs and that this whole world orders changed. 23 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 3: But this is just another reminder Ryan that investors should 24 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 3: be expecting more volatility, particularly into the US presidential midterms. 25 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: And what about reaction to the Prime Minister State of 26 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: the Nation address. 27 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:13,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I think the market's taken. 28 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 3: Mister Luxe's address pretty much is a straight down the 29 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 3: line for investment markets. No big bowel promises, no big 30 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 3: money being thrown around. Markets do agree with mister Luxeon's 31 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 3: view on the news on economy of covering in twenty 32 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,680 Speaker 3: six and then there's a brighter year. The fiscal discipline 33 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 3: might have disappointed one or two people who are expecting 34 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 3: some stimulus announcements, but for capital markets. 35 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 2: That's a good thing. 36 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 3: Reassuring the government it's all about taking care of the 37 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 3: balance sheet and investors are like that. A little bit 38 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 3: of positiveness. 39 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 2: Maybe around the increase in qus the contributions if it 40 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 2: does go to twelve percent. 41 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 3: But yeah, I think you know, well, no surprises in 42 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 3: this election date still out there. Maybe we get that 43 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 3: later this week from the caucus meeting in christ Each 44 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 3: markets expected sort of October then, so we've got a 45 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 3: way to go for elections. 46 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: It certainly do long way to go. It's going to 47 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 1: feel like an eternity too. Hey, the inflations are still 48 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,360 Speaker 1: sticky here. Does that mean the Reserve Bank's not going 49 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: to cut further in February the next meeting. 50 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 2: Yeah. 51 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 3: Look, I think the data coming out recently is suggested 52 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,399 Speaker 3: there's pretty mixing terms of inflation data. 53 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 2: We're seeing some up, some down. 54 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 3: Over All, the data suggests that this inflation numbers is 55 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 3: running a little bit higher than levels that support Brazerve 56 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 3: Bank cutting rates and this improving India economic data and 57 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 3: we're a really strong purchacing Manager index up last week 58 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 3: to fifty six point one. Is the pressure is not 59 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 3: the same driver there for the RBNZ at the cut rates. 60 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 2: This mark is not actually cutting. 61 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:43,959 Speaker 3: Sorry, this mark is not actually pricing any more cuts 62 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 3: and by the Reserve Bank this year. In fact, it's 63 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 3: actually allowing for more of a more like an increase, 64 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 3: with zero point four percent increase priced into the second 65 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 3: half of twenty twenty six, taking official cash rates to 66 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 3: two point six by the end of December. 67 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 2: So yeah, we've got the steps. 68 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 3: New Zealand consumer price index up on Friday for the 69 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 3: fourth quarter of twenty twenty five, markets expecting a quarterly 70 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 3: reading of zero point five percent and which would be 71 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 3: three percent year on near that's a little bit above 72 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 3: what the Reserve Bank's targeting, so if the CPI data 73 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 3: comes in higher than this, could actually see expectations of 74 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 3: rate increases dragged forward. 75 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 2: Shane. 76 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: Appreciate your time. Thank you, Shane solely how brain st 77 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: management with our market update tonight For more from Hither 78 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 1: Duplessy Allen Drive listen live to news talks it'd be 79 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:31,359 Speaker 1: from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.