Speaker 1: Hilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The
Speaker 1: appearance of three Chinese warships so close to our borders
Speaker 1: has surprised and confused Australian and New Zealand officials. The
Speaker 1: ships issued a live fire warning off Australia's east coast,
Speaker 1: forcing commercial flights to change course. Then, on Saturday afternoon,
Speaker 1: sailors on a New Zealand Navy frigate saw live rounds
Speaker 1: being fired from a Chinese vessel's main gun. Beijing's now
Speaker 1: under scrutiny for not warning Australia or New Zealand of
Speaker 1: drills being performed in the Tasman Sea. All this comes
Speaker 1: as tensions between New Zealand and our Pacific neighbors are
Speaker 1: at an all time high. Today on the Front Page,
Speaker 1: Waikato University's Algillespie updates us on what's going on on
Speaker 1: the first of Alexander. Can you tell us what's going
Speaker 1: on here?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 3: A number of things have been happening, but the most
Speaker 3: recent one is that there's three Chinese naval vessels in
Speaker 3: Betasman conducting a operation which involves live firing and this
Speaker 3: is causing a considerable degree of discomfort on both sides
Speaker 3: of the Tasman Sea.
Speaker 1: Prime Minister Christopher Lackson said that they're monitoring, shadowing and
Speaker 1: tracking the fleet, adding that China is acting in accordance
Speaker 1: with international law. Now what does that mean? What does
Speaker 1: the international law allow them.
Speaker 3: To do so? The Law of the Sea nineteen eighties
Speaker 3: convention from the United Nations divides the ocean into the
Speaker 3: high seas, the Territorial Sea, which is of nautical miles,
Speaker 3: and themb Exclusive Economic Zone, which is two hundred pudical miles.
Speaker 3: If vessels are in the high Sea, they have a
Speaker 3: considerable amount of freedom to transit and operate as they
Speaker 3: see fit, provided that they're under a flag, of which
Speaker 3: these Chinese vessels are. If they were in the Territorial Sea,
Speaker 3: they wouldn't be able to conduct war games as they're doing,
Speaker 3: but they're not, so what they're doing is completely legal
Speaker 3: and lawful. There are additional rules that prevent naval boats
Speaker 3: from opposing sides, bumping into each other and having accidents
Speaker 3: or miscalculation. And these rules apply to China just like
Speaker 3: they applied to New Zealand and Australia and the sharing
Speaker 3: of the information that the Chinese authorities have done so
Speaker 3: far about the live firing. They are in full accordance
Speaker 3: with these rules.
Speaker 1: What would them breaking international law look like? When should
Speaker 1: we start getting worried.
Speaker 3: It would be a concern if they conducted military exercises
Speaker 3: and the exclusive economic zone, and especially in the territorial Sea,
Speaker 3: like if they got closer and closer to the shore.
Speaker 3: There are additional rules around submarines of which you should
Speaker 3: have certain notification if you've got opposing navies close to
Speaker 3: each other, or if our boats and their boats started
Speaker 3: to bump in to each other, or there were near
Speaker 3: misses or potential accidents, that's when you need to get
Speaker 3: start concerned. And you've certainly seen this in the South
Speaker 3: China Sea where Australian Philippine or Philippine boats Filippino boats
Speaker 3: will bump into some of the Chinese boats and it's
Speaker 3: certainly a cause for tension, and there is a risk
Speaker 3: to security and not just to the aviators and the
Speaker 3: sea personnel if something goes wrong, and so we try
Speaker 3: to manage this, but that is not what's happened in
Speaker 3: Potasman Sea right now. It's quite calm and it's fully adderly.
Speaker 2: Three Chinese warships have been quietly stalking Australia's eastern coast,
Speaker 2: but today their silent sale South ended. Nine News understands
Speaker 2: that about ten fifteen this morning, pilots from three commercial
Speaker 2: jets flying between Australia and New Zealand heard a broadcast
Speaker 2: from one of the warships warning of an emminent live
Speaker 2: fire exercise.
Speaker 1: We are aware of this task group.
Speaker 4: We are monitoring this task group very closely.
Speaker 2: It is, as I.
Speaker 5: Understand it, operating in international waters. They have no reason
Speaker 5: to do live firing exercises in the waters between New
Speaker 5: Zealand and Australia other than to demonstrate an aggressive, provocative
Speaker 5: set of behavior.
Speaker 1: So is China required to say, give notice of a
Speaker 1: live firing so close to a commercial flight path or
Speaker 1: is that just considered good.
Speaker 3: Manners to rule under the code that to prevent unexpected encounters.
Speaker 3: But they have done this, It would have been more
Speaker 3: positive if they had telegraphed this information in advance to
Speaker 3: the national authorities and not just to the civil aviators.
Speaker 3: And it would have been good faith to have not
Speaker 3: just told the embassies but also the extent of them,
Speaker 3: where they're going, why they're doing it, so that it
Speaker 3: could have been dealt with better than it's been dealt with,
Speaker 3: but certainly not illegal.
Speaker 1: Our Defense Minister Judith Collins has said both US and
Speaker 1: Australia aren't worried.
Speaker 4: Well, I think that they are very much like us.
Speaker 4: They're aware of the situation. I don't think that anyone's
Speaker 4: particularly worried. We're just aware that this is a new
Speaker 4: thing that we've seen, which is an incredibly capable task
Speaker 4: group coming down into an area where we haven't seen
Speaker 4: them before and where they've undertaken live firing with only
Speaker 4: a few hours notice.
Speaker 1: Is that fair or should we be more worried?
Speaker 3: In terms of what's going on in p Tasman, there's
Speaker 3: absolutely no cause for concern. But where there is course
Speaker 3: for concern is when you see it in terms of
Speaker 3: a wider pattern, and that is not just dispute to
Speaker 3: the South China Sea, but also recent problems like that
Speaker 3: the Cook Islands which have changed our relationship significantly, or
Speaker 3: concerns that you might have had recently with the ES
Speaker 3: and the monitoring of Chinese populations in New Zealand by
Speaker 3: the PRC SO the overall relationship of which this current
Speaker 3: problem needs to be added to, adds to a greater
Speaker 3: level of discomfort. And that's coming at a time when
Speaker 3: New Zealand is trying to find its place in the world,
Speaker 3: and especially with the new Trump administration.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well you mentioned there. All of this is happening
Speaker 1: after the Cook Islands signed a memorandum of understanding with China,
Speaker 1: including a five year agreement for sea bed mining. Does
Speaker 1: that mean we'll be seeing a fair bit more of
Speaker 1: China in our end of the world.
Speaker 3: It means you're going to see more Chinese influence in
Speaker 3: the Cook Islands. And you know, we need to be
Speaker 3: clear here. Influence isn't necessarily a bad thing if it's
Speaker 3: done for multilaterally agreed sustainable development and its humanitarian and
Speaker 3: its aid and it's not debt, and so that there
Speaker 3: is areas for cooperation. But what you're seeing increasingly is
Speaker 3: bilateral initiatives where New Zealand has been told this isn't
Speaker 3: your interest. You know, you shouldn't be involved in this area.
Speaker 3: And that's a real concern because New Zealand's relationship with
Speaker 3: the Cooks is quite unique and we do have a
Speaker 3: concerned over security and sensitivities at the moment that need
Speaker 3: to be more respected than they were. And so to me,
Speaker 3: the concern is not just the sea bed mining or
Speaker 3: the infrastructure deals. It's the ongoing relationship and how these
Speaker 3: new deals may alter that and that will change the
Speaker 3: relationship with both the Cook Islands and New Zealand and
Speaker 3: China and New Zealand.
Speaker 1: But we're seeing the live firings in the Tasman and
Speaker 1: in those plans for a significant strategic presence in the
Speaker 1: Cook Islands by China are all within the space of
Speaker 1: a few weeks. This can't be a coincidence, can it.
Speaker 3: It's unlikely to be a coincidence. Often you will find
Speaker 3: that China will respond and it will speak out loudly
Speaker 3: or act in a particularly false full way when something
Speaker 3: happens which they aren't happy with. So in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 3: a New Zealand frigate and an Australian vessel went through
Speaker 3: the Taiwanese Straight and then within a few days we
Speaker 3: saw China test an intercontinental missile, which a dummy missile
Speaker 3: which splashed down in the South Pacific. Coincidence may be
Speaker 3: more likely to be a message that we need to
Speaker 3: be careful what we're doing, and that the complacency that
Speaker 3: New Zealand has had for a long time is now
Speaker 3: questionable because the world is changing.
Speaker 1: And it's true, isn't it that we don't know what
Speaker 1: those warships are doing. What could they be doing.
Speaker 3: They're probably just practicing like our vessels practice, and that
Speaker 3: this is not normal or unusual. If there were submarines involved,
Speaker 3: it would raise our level of concern and in a
Speaker 3: good faith relationship if they are out there. China would
Speaker 3: say that these vessels are in the vicinity and the
Speaker 3: reasons you're concerned about those is that if our naval
Speaker 3: vessels stumbled over their, especially if they were submerged, it
Speaker 3: just adds unnecessary extra tension. I don't see anything malicious
Speaker 3: or particularly dangerous with what they're doing on the high Sea.
Speaker 3: It would have been a better relationship if they had
Speaker 3: told us in advance, and if our relationships were freely
Speaker 3: we could even have invited them into port for a
Speaker 3: cup of tea. But we're not at that point where
Speaker 3: we were a few years ago.
Speaker 1: Australia and China have had a salty relationship in recent years,
Speaker 1: and this incident hasn't really helped. Has Australia's Defense Minister,
Speaker 1: Richard Miles, said Beijing had failed to give satisfactory reasons
Speaker 1: for the inadequate notice given on Friday's live fire drill.
Speaker 1: And then on the other hand, China's Defense Ministry spokespersons
Speaker 1: said that Australia's complaints were hyped up and inconsistent with
Speaker 1: the facts. Now, where do these tensions leave New Zealand?
Speaker 1: Do you think how do we stay on good terms
Speaker 1: with China without causing issues with Australia.
Speaker 3: I think the reality of somewhere between the Chinese position
Speaker 3: and the Australian position and that there's a lot of
Speaker 3: tension and things could have been dealt with better in
Speaker 3: in a more open and transparent, in an advanced way.
Speaker 3: But what China is doing is not illegal if they
Speaker 3: operate on the high seas as they are. What it
Speaker 3: does for New Zealand, I think is bigger than the
Speaker 3: current issue of what's going on in the Tasman. I
Speaker 3: think what you're going to see is that New Zealand,
Speaker 3: with the issues around the Cook Islands, with the issues
Speaker 3: of the malicious behavior, with concerns about the cybersecurity, into
Speaker 3: Parliament a few years ago. Is it pushes New Zealand
Speaker 3: away from an independent foreign policy, and historically, whenever there's
Speaker 3: been threats to the region, we go back closer to Australia,
Speaker 3: closer to Britain, and closer to the United States. And
Speaker 3: all this is occurring at the time that we know
Speaker 3: that the military budgets will be increasing, we know that
Speaker 3: aucus is a possibility, and these actions push us towards
Speaker 3: those relationships, not further away. And so ironically, China may
Speaker 3: have just scored an own goal because they want New
Speaker 3: Zealand to be independent, but they're creating tensions which push
Speaker 3: us in the opposite direction.
Speaker 6: Again, our issue is there's nothing illegal here in terms
Speaker 6: of they are compliant with international law. It's the same
Speaker 6: law that we rely upon as we move around the world.
Speaker 6: But the issue for us is we just think, you know,
Speaker 6: we'd appreciate a little bit more advanced notice, particularly on
Speaker 6: what is a busy air route, one of the busiest
Speaker 6: in the world, that we've actually got a bit more
Speaker 6: time to respond to that. Having said that, our civil
Speaker 6: aviation authorities are well used to this. They are in
Speaker 6: a normal practice in the aviation and maritime world. They
Speaker 6: have been coordinating well across the Tasman and importantly, at
Speaker 6: no point have New Zealand or austral An assets been
Speaker 6: in any danger.
Speaker 1: Is the balance of power changing in our region.
Speaker 3: I think it's been changing for a considerable amount of years.
Speaker 3: It's only now it's very close to our shores. I
Speaker 3: mean it's literally in the Cook Island or it's literally
Speaker 3: has been see and these are things which are unprecedented
Speaker 3: for a very long time.
Speaker 1: What happens from here our How does New Zealand toe
Speaker 1: the line of I guess being friendly without completely condoning
Speaker 1: this kind of behavior.
Speaker 3: We should always be reaching out for areas of cooperation.
Speaker 3: We should always try to find an act in good faith.
Speaker 3: But at the same time we need to sober up
Speaker 3: with what the risks are and what is changing out
Speaker 3: in our environment, and so continue to find the areas
Speaker 3: where we can cooperate, where we can have peaceful coexistence.
Speaker 3: But realistically we need to be prepared to move closer
Speaker 3: towards our traditional friends and allies in the region. And
Speaker 3: I think what you're likely to see is that the budget,
Speaker 3: the military budgets will increase, the spend will increase, and
Speaker 3: a deepening of our alliances which will be pivoted against
Speaker 3: those who are not traditional in the area, the geographical area.
Speaker 1: And you brought up Orchus as well. Do you think
Speaker 1: incidents like this could sway public opinion when it comes
Speaker 1: to things like orcus. A few polls have shown more
Speaker 1: support for it than against. Could this push more people
Speaker 1: towards perhaps supporting joining Pillar two?
Speaker 3: It's not going to lessen to support for it. And
Speaker 3: I think a number of people are now seeing not
Speaker 3: just the one threat and betasment, but but the collection
Speaker 3: of changing environment whereby our traditional interests are being undermined.
Speaker 3: And New Zella knows we are big enough or strong
Speaker 3: enough to support ourselves if times get hard. So we
Speaker 3: will follow that traditional pattern and we will go back
Speaker 3: towards Australia, we will go back towards Britain, and we
Speaker 3: will go back towards the America. It's a difficult time
Speaker 3: and it's not necessarily desirable to be doing that, but
Speaker 3: people are scared of the alternative and they don't feel
Speaker 3: safe with a number of these actions going on. Even
Speaker 3: though they are legal, they are often threatening and they
Speaker 3: change the strategic environment.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Alexander, You're welcome Charlson. That's it
Speaker 1: for this episode of the Front Page. Read more about
Speaker 1: today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzdherld dot co
Speaker 1: dot nz. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills
Speaker 1: and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer. I'm
Speaker 1: Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or
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Speaker 1: another look behind the headlines.