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Speaker 1: The confidence of the job market has taken a big

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Speaker 1: hit over the past three months. West Pax Employment Confidence

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Speaker 1: survey dropped thirteen points overall. Information Principal economist Brad Olsen

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Speaker 1: is with us on this evening to your Brad, good evening.

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Speaker 1: What does this actually measure? Is this measuring people in

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Speaker 1: work worried about staying in work or changing jobs? Or

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Speaker 1: does it measure does it does it measure people trying

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Speaker 1: to find work?

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Speaker 2: Well, sort of measures a range of people. I mean

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Speaker 2: parts of what you've just outlined, and they're in terms

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Speaker 2: of sort of what people have work and you know,

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Speaker 2: also what they're thinking about for the future. Sort of

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Speaker 2: goes through it surveyed a bunch of people because I

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Speaker 2: think this is probably the important thing. It gives us

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Speaker 2: an idea once you break it down in terms of

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Speaker 2: current job opportunity. So sort of you know what I

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Speaker 2: feel like there are at the moment when they've been

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Speaker 2: going around either because they're looking for work, because they

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Speaker 2: don't have a job, or because they've got a job.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're casting around for other opportunities, but also

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Speaker 2: things like expected job opportunity, So you know, what are

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Speaker 2: they hearing and seeing out there when they're talking to recruiters,

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Speaker 2: is it looking up or down? What is earnings and

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Speaker 2: what's your job security? And that's actually a bit of

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Speaker 2: a big one as well, that has turned negative. It

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Speaker 2: was positive last quarterback, at the start of this year,

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Speaker 2: it was slightly positive. It's now negative, which suggests that

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Speaker 2: more people than not are going, actually, I'm worried that

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Speaker 2: I'm going to lose a job, you know, I'm not

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Speaker 2: sort of confident I'm still going to have that pay.

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Speaker 2: So all of those numbers continuing to decline that you

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Speaker 2: know that I think they've said it's the worse since

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty, but if you go back even further than that,

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Speaker 2: and probably a better comparison, because it looks like it's

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Speaker 2: about on par it's not slightly worse than the worst

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Speaker 2: part of the sort of deirc play. So we are

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Speaker 2: seeing people that are increasingly going, look, it's difficult to

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Speaker 2: find a job. I'm not confident I will keep my

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Speaker 2: current job. That's a bad sign for the labor market.

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Speaker 1: Clearly, Hell, Brad, do we explain the fact that in

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Speaker 1: the private sector it took a bigger knock for confidence

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Speaker 1: than it did in the public sector When the public

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Speaker 1: sector is losing all of these jobs.

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Speaker 2: Well, You've got a wonder if part of that is

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Speaker 2: because the parting sector probably knew of those challenges a lot. So.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you look at some of those sort

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Speaker 2: of figures that have come through, it possibly suggests there

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Speaker 2: was a bit of preemption from the public sector sort

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Speaker 2: of workers going look wet of we could see this

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Speaker 2: coming from a little bit of a mile away. It's

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Speaker 2: also though, being seen in job add numbers that have

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Speaker 2: been published over the last week or so from the

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Speaker 2: like SUC seats. You know, those employment figures and expectations

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Speaker 2: around job numbers continue to be worse. It was interesting.

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Speaker 2: I've been out and presenting and potty to it today

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Speaker 2: talking to their business months and then you know, the

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Speaker 2: biggest question there was all around the public service cuts

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Speaker 2: that have come through, and I think the challenge is

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Speaker 2: that they still haven't actually fully hit yet they you know,

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Speaker 2: there's still those restructurings that are going on, and it

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Speaker 2: probably won't be until September maybe the end of this

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Speaker 2: year before we've got a full and final picture of

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Speaker 2: what that looks like.

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Speaker 1: Brad. It's so good to talk to you mate, Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. Appreciated as Brad Olson Infametrix Principle Economist.

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