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Speaker 2: seasonal effective disorder. Is there such a thing as the
Speaker 2: winter blues? Well, I guess there is, because there's an
Speaker 2: expression called the seasonal effective disorder of the winter blue.
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're being a chat about that. I love
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Speaker 2: and winter of course not miserable gray, I guess. Anyway,
Speaker 2: For smart money, at five o'clock, Hamish Pepper from Harbor
Speaker 2: Asset Management joins us to discuss issues around well money essentially,
Speaker 2: but of course there's talk about the lowering of the
Speaker 2: Reserve Bank has pivoted and it's rhetoric which points to
Speaker 2: lower interest rates ahead. We're going to have a chat about
Speaker 2: that and what are all means at five o'clock. But
Speaker 2: right now it is time for what is it eight
Speaker 2: minutes past three and time for Politics Central, So what
Speaker 2: we're going to be doing this there In just a
Speaker 2: moment we'll be having a chat with Dan Mitchison, but
Speaker 2: after that we'll be having a chat also with the
Speaker 2: mayor elect. I guess if that's the right expression, Mahe Drysdale.
Speaker 2: But of course, if we look out at the States,
Speaker 2: the Republican what's been going on in the States with
Speaker 2: the Republicans have been having their national convention. But of course,
Speaker 2: just this time last week, somebody tried to assassinate Donald
Speaker 2: Trump and the course of the US election took something
Speaker 2: of a turn. And now, of course, as I mentioned,
Speaker 2: the Republicans have wrapped up their national convention this week
Speaker 2: with Ohio Senator JD. Vance being announced as Donald Trump's
Speaker 2: running mate, and pressure continues to mount on Joe Biden
Speaker 2: to step down. Willie, won't he? And when? Anyways? Give
Speaker 2: you the latest live from the Live on the United States?
Speaker 2: Is US spun? Dan Mitchison, who's with me?
Speaker 3: Now? Good? I?
Speaker 4: Dan? Hey?
Speaker 3: Good eight? Jim.
Speaker 2: So, firstly, how's Donald Trump doing after his appearance? And
Speaker 2: they you can mention how are his prospects?
Speaker 4: Well, I think he's doing a lot better. I mean
Speaker 4: today he held the you know, first campaign in Michigan
Speaker 4: that he has had since that assassination attempt, and he
Speaker 4: was joined with his his VP pick JD. Vance, and
Speaker 4: they immediately, you know, took on Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
Speaker 4: And what was interesting is, you know, the theme owing
Speaker 4: into this whole event, especially after the assassination attempt, was
Speaker 4: going to be unity.
Speaker 3: But for Trump.
Speaker 4: I think it's safe to say that unity means aligning
Speaker 4: with him. You're with him or you're against him. And
Speaker 4: I third, I think we heard him talk, you know,
Speaker 4: about trying to do bring people together as part of
Speaker 4: this convention before he went on a standard really rampage again.
Speaker 4: Still a lot of Democrats claiming, you know, that he's
Speaker 4: a threat to democracy, and he says, I'm the one
Speaker 4: who's saving democracy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, how do you think the Pennsylvania is shooting?
Speaker 2: What do we know about how it's impacted the polls?
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I think it's a little too early
Speaker 4: to really gauge that. I mean, you had, you know,
Speaker 4: instant polls that show that his numbers were up slightly
Speaker 4: over Joe Biden. And of course now everybody's wondering, well,
Speaker 4: will he be going up against Joe Biden or will
Speaker 4: he be going up against Kamala Harris And they're pretty
Speaker 4: much even in the polls. Both are not particularly strong
Speaker 4: candidates for the Democratic Party. In fact, the Democrats don't
Speaker 4: really have a.
Speaker 3: Deep bench right now.
Speaker 4: I mean, if you look ahead to four years from now,
Speaker 4: I think you're going to have a much better bench.
Speaker 4: Pete Buddhaj Edge, who is a transportation ahead of the
Speaker 4: US Transportation Department here and ran and failed, you know
Speaker 4: several years ago. I think he could throw his hat.
Speaker 4: Governor Gavin Newsom, who's the governor of California, he's he
Speaker 4: is definitely going to be running. He's one of the
Speaker 4: people that they've already talked about if Joe Biden were
Speaker 4: to step aside, might he step into his shoes. But
Speaker 4: right now, those that were around Trump, I think have
Speaker 4: have circled the wagons and they're they're stronger than ever
Speaker 4: and more sure that he is going to be in
Speaker 4: the White House after November.
Speaker 2: So what is in terms of the effects of the shooting.
Speaker 2: Does it just shore up his base? Are there are
Speaker 2: undecided aviters that are thinking, oh, you know, seeing the
Speaker 2: imagery of him, you know, saying fought and holding his
Speaker 2: fist to the air and talking about unity. Has it
Speaker 2: made a difference to undecided?
Speaker 3: I don't know if it has or not.
Speaker 4: It's it's really interesting because you know, after surviving this attempt,
Speaker 4: I mean, he has emerged, I think, looking stronger than
Speaker 4: ever in the minds of a lot of his supporters,
Speaker 4: and his son Eric has attributed his survival to divine intervention.
Speaker 4: But the interesting thing is the more that comes out
Speaker 4: against him, He's like teflon and that I hate using
Speaker 4: that analogy, but it really is. It seems like every
Speaker 4: whether he's on trial, or he has a sexual allegation
Speaker 4: against him, or you get something like this.
Speaker 3: That happened to him.
Speaker 4: A week ago, I think his base of supporters just
Speaker 4: tighten around him even more.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 4: There's still a lot of independence out there, and you're
Speaker 4: really not going to change the mind of a lot
Speaker 4: of Democrats or a lot of Republicans at this point.
Speaker 4: And unfortunately, what we need in this country is a
Speaker 4: third party, and that just is not going to happen,
Speaker 4: not in the foreseeable future. I mean, we are very
Speaker 4: black and white. There used to be a gray here
Speaker 4: in the US when it came to politics, but now
Speaker 4: it's an extreme left or an extreme right.
Speaker 2: It seems like tell us about his Trump speach to
Speaker 2: the convention. I saw it was about ninety minutes long, Bud,
Speaker 2: and said what tweited something like, what the hell was that?
Speaker 2: But I couldn't put myself through it, to be honest.
Speaker 2: So that's why I'm glad we've got you.
Speaker 3: Well it was.
Speaker 4: I mean, he started out in the first few minutes,
Speaker 4: I think, trying to trying to get people together. He
Speaker 4: paid the respects to the fireman who was killed while
Speaker 4: trying to save his family, and you saw him go
Speaker 4: over and sort of kiss the helmet of.
Speaker 3: The fireman.
Speaker 4: But I really think that the women in Trump's orbit
Speaker 4: were trying to humanize him. I think that was something
Speaker 4: that they were trying to do, and we didn't see
Speaker 4: four years ago. I mean, his daughter in law, who's
Speaker 4: co chair of the Republican National Committee, was up there.
Speaker 4: He had a grandchild speak of the convention. You saw
Speaker 4: cutaway shots of him hugging some of his grandchildren. So
Speaker 4: it really was a different field than it was four
Speaker 4: years ago. But then, even though we were told he
Speaker 4: was not going to go off script, he went off script,
Speaker 4: and about fifteen or twenty minutes later into the speech,
Speaker 4: it turned into something just like a rally where he
Speaker 4: was just sort of rambling on about Joe Biden and
Speaker 4: about the Democrats and how he is going to be
Speaker 4: the savior of the Republican Party.
Speaker 3: And I think.
Speaker 4: He was trying to go after I mean, you look
Speaker 4: at Hulk Hogan, who was there and Kid Rock. I mean,
Speaker 4: Republicans know that gen Z voters don't feel especially beholden
Speaker 4: to Democrats or Republicans right now, and they sort of
Speaker 4: see an opening right now.
Speaker 3: And you know, JD.
Speaker 4: Vance is only thirty nine years old, so he's the
Speaker 4: first millennial to be on a major party presidential ticket.
Speaker 3: I think they're going after that a little bit.
Speaker 4: But yeah, it started out fairly strong, but I think
Speaker 4: it kind of rambled on a bit for the president.
Speaker 3: The former president.
Speaker 2: Tell us about J. D.
Speaker 4: Evans, Well, I mean he's somebody I think we're going
Speaker 4: to get to know a little bit more. I mean, obviously,
Speaker 4: he wrote a best selling book. He is fairly young.
Speaker 4: That book has been turned into a movie that has
Speaker 4: now shot back up to the top of the streaming
Speaker 4: charts on Netflix right now. I mean, he had he
Speaker 4: grew up in Ohio, his family struggled, and really he
Speaker 4: is you know, he was somebody who was against Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: But like so many other people, as we saw the convention,
Speaker 4: they kind of turn that around. It's like, Okay, he's
Speaker 4: the Godfather. Now you have to kiss the ring of
Speaker 4: the Godfather. It doesn't matter what you said, it doesn't
Speaker 4: matter that you look at Nicki Haley, who was a
Speaker 4: adamant that that Trump was never going to be the
Speaker 4: White House again and that she would never have anything
Speaker 4: to do with him. But you know, she was up
Speaker 4: there on stage singing his praises, saying, we have our disagreements,
Speaker 4: but you know, not so much that I'm not going
Speaker 4: to back him.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, let's looking on the Democrat side of things.
Speaker 2: How much public pressure? What do we know about the
Speaker 2: public pressure and maybe the behinds the Saints pressure that
Speaker 2: is mounting on Biden to step aside.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of pressure.
Speaker 4: And I'll tell you, Tim, I have interviewed some of
Speaker 4: the top Democrats I would say over the last maybe
Speaker 4: eighteen months on air, and I've talked to a few
Speaker 4: off air. Publicly they said nobody would ever speak out
Speaker 4: against President Biden. But even a year ago, even eighteen
Speaker 4: months ago, privately, they were saying that this is not
Speaker 4: the candidate that we want. We know that if he
Speaker 4: goes up against Trump that he would probably lose. There's
Speaker 4: very little confidence in Kamala Harris. But if Biden were
Speaker 4: to step aside, I mean, she's the what are you
Speaker 4: going to do? Ask her to take the number two role. Again,
Speaker 4: You've got somebody who is a minority, who is a female,
Speaker 4: who the Democrats are going after, and they've lost a
Speaker 4: lot of the support in the black community. So who
Speaker 4: does that leave for them to bring up? Gavin Newsom,
Speaker 4: who has sworn that he has no interest in running
Speaker 4: for president, but everybody knows that he is there. He's
Speaker 4: been out campaigning for President Biden, but often it sounds
Speaker 4: like he's sort of laying the groundwork for his own campaign.
Speaker 3: In four years. Barack Obama has.
Speaker 4: Been called in by top Democrats, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi,
Speaker 4: to say, you've got to tell him to step down,
Speaker 4: and nobody's answering the phone right now. Donors are just
Speaker 4: even though David Letterman has announced he's going to be
Speaker 4: hosting a big event in Hawait in a couple of weeks,
Speaker 4: donors are just sort of waiting and seeing who are
Speaker 4: we going to give our money to because they're just
Speaker 4: not confident that that's going to be Biden.
Speaker 3: At this point.
Speaker 2: I guess that in terms of public pronouncements, they're going
Speaker 2: to be all in until they're not all in it, aren't.
Speaker 2: I because as soon as it's and same with Biden.
Speaker 2: He has to say he's in until he's not, because
Speaker 2: if he shows any chinks in the honor, then that
Speaker 2: city's gone.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: And the frustrating thing is you've got a man who
Speaker 4: has served what forty fifty years or more in public service,
Speaker 4: and you know, if you're a Democrat, you're going to say, hey,
Speaker 4: Joe Is, he's done a great job for the country.
Speaker 3: It's your time to step aside.
Speaker 4: You know, you didn't need to run that you were
Speaker 4: supposed to be a transitional president.
Speaker 3: And he even said that himself.
Speaker 4: You know it was everybody I think was under the
Speaker 4: impression I'm just going to do this for four years.
Speaker 4: I'll lay the groundwork for my successor, and I'll step aside.
Speaker 4: But we know that if you admit that going into
Speaker 4: an office, you're a lame duck president because nobody wants
Speaker 4: somebody that's going to be around for just four years
Speaker 4: to start things and not finish it. And that's what
Speaker 4: Biden is saying, Well, I have to finish my job here.
Speaker 4: But his wife should have been, you know, there saying
Speaker 4: you know, it's time for you.
Speaker 3: To step aside.
Speaker 4: His closest age and advisors should have been doing that,
Speaker 4: but apparently Joe Biden is very stubborn when it comes
Speaker 4: to that, and there are a lot of people who
Speaker 4: are scared about saying that to his face.
Speaker 2: What's your money on? Do you think he will last
Speaker 2: the distance to the election, because I reckon, it's just
Speaker 2: a matter of time till the public pressure just gets
Speaker 2: to and the polls and everything. It's going to catch
Speaker 2: up with them, isn't it.
Speaker 3: What do you think it is?
Speaker 4: I would have said maybe a month ago, I couldn't
Speaker 4: see somebody dropping out. Something like this has certainly not happened,
Speaker 4: And in my lifetime a couple of days ago, I
Speaker 4: would say maybe by tomorrow, maybe by Monday, early this
Speaker 4: next week, we're going to hear that he has decided
Speaker 4: for health reasons or something. I mean, and that's another thing.
Speaker 4: How are you going to bow out gracefully without losing face?
Speaker 4: I mean, he says he's going to be back out campaigning.
Speaker 4: He said, he's now considering. You know, if something bad
Speaker 4: were to happen to me, he said, you know, with
Speaker 4: my health, then I might consider stepping aside.
Speaker 3: Well, he catches COVID. I mean, is this the door
Speaker 3: that's opened to him?
Speaker 4: Right now saying I just I just don't think I
Speaker 4: can put myself or my family through this. I'm not
Speaker 4: willing to risk my health or my life to do
Speaker 4: this and sort of open the door for Kamala Harris
Speaker 4: to step in and continue to run for November.
Speaker 2: I guess, look, given that there has been the susassination
Speaker 2: and attempt, and there are certain rules around if you
Speaker 2: change almostmid straim, it's bad news. But is there any
Speaker 2: chance that if he did step down that the Republicans
Speaker 2: might seize the agenda for a bit and have a
Speaker 2: chance of getting the man and woman into the White House.
Speaker 4: I think there's a there's a very good chance that
Speaker 4: the Republicans will win. I can't see anybody that the
Speaker 4: Democrats can put up right now that would at this
Speaker 4: late day be able to.
Speaker 3: You know, to be Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: I just can't, like I say, looking down the road,
Speaker 4: I can certainly see Democrats taking the White House in.
Speaker 3: You know, in four years.
Speaker 4: But there's a lot of people right now that don't
Speaker 4: want to vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden. I've
Speaker 4: got two teenage kids, twins that are voting in their
Speaker 4: first presidential election in just a few months. And both
Speaker 4: have come out and said there's nobody in the party
Speaker 4: that I want to vote for, and I know a
Speaker 4: lot of their peers have said the same thing. And
Speaker 4: those are the voters that the Democrats and the Republicans
Speaker 4: are going to have to go after. Two are those
Speaker 4: younger voters, and right now they're just not appealing to them.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess that's why I thought, if they did
Speaker 2: have a change, is there any possiblity have a game
Speaker 2: in change?
Speaker 4: But oh well, yeah not at this point. Not to
Speaker 4: mention this drags out for so long. My dad, who's
Speaker 4: you know, from the UK, says, wouldn't it be nice
Speaker 4: in this country if we could just have it like
Speaker 4: they do for a prime minister in the UK you
Speaker 4: get five weeks, you don't spend a lot of money,
Speaker 4: you hit the road, and then it's over and done
Speaker 4: with and they're in number ten, you know, on the
Speaker 4: next day. But here it's you know, it's a good
Speaker 4: eighteen months to two years of campaigning. So as soon
Speaker 4: as whoever gets in the White House does in November,
Speaker 4: eighteen months after that, we'll be talking about twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 2: Good stuff. Hey, Dan, I really appreciate your time this oftenoon.
Speaker 2: You're insight, Thanks so.
Speaker 3: Much, my pleasure.
Speaker 2: Yes, that is Dan Mitchison. Mitchinson. He is a US correspondent,
Speaker 2: and we're going to be back in a moment talking
Speaker 2: politics a little more local, well I hell of a
Speaker 2: lot more local. Actually, we're going to be being a
Speaker 2: chat with the new mayor elect of Taranger who joins
Speaker 2: us shortly, Mahi Drysdale. It is twenty two minutes past
Speaker 2: three News Talk Said B. By the way, you can
Speaker 2: text your feedback on nine two nine two, and we're
Speaker 2: going to be doing a little bit of talk back
Speaker 2: after I've had a chat with Mahi as well, just
Speaker 2: about well, a couple of questions as a teaser, will
Speaker 2: throw you out later, throw it out to you later.
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