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Speaker 1: Now U S President Donald Trump has today re paused

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Speaker 1: You have to stay with me for this introduction because

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Speaker 1: it's actually quite hard to follow, and that's not the

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Speaker 1: fault of the person who wrote it. It is the

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Speaker 1: fault of the president. US President Donald Trump has today

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Speaker 1: re paused some of the tariffs on Mexico, Mexico and

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Speaker 1: Canada that he paused a month ago but unpaused earlier

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Speaker 1: this week. Now, any products covered under the free trade Deal,

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Speaker 1: the new NAFTA treaty, they won't be subject to a

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Speaker 1: tariff until April the second. So this includes about half

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Speaker 1: of what the Mexicans export to the United States and

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Speaker 1: about a quarter for the Canadians. If you're confused, well

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are. Hopefully Stephen Jacobe from the

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Speaker 1: International Business Forum can help us make sense of it all.

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Speaker 1: He's with me now, Hi, Stephen.

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Speaker 2: How are you doing good?

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Speaker 1: Thank you? Good to have you on the show. Then,

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Speaker 1: so what happens on April second? Do you think if

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Speaker 1: you had a crystal ball?

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Speaker 2: Well, April second is the day that the president is

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Speaker 2: meant to be taking decisions on a raft of advice

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Speaker 2: that he can mission from US trade agencies. On his

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Speaker 2: first day in office, and his thirst day in office,

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Speaker 2: he didn't do anything about tariff's other than to commission

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Speaker 2: this advice. It's due on the first of April. On

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Speaker 2: the second of April, making those decisions and we will

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Speaker 2: then see, I think, what he means to do about

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Speaker 2: tariffs across the board. I mean, we've seen these things

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Speaker 2: in relation to Canada and Mexico and China and steel

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Speaker 2: now aluminium, and he's talked about doing a whole of

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Speaker 2: other things. The situation with him is very very unclear.

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Speaker 2: Come April second, I think we might see a little

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Speaker 2: more about what the game plan is.

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Speaker 1: Why do you think he has capitulated? I mean, why

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Speaker 1: is he pulled back on some of these. From where

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting, he's looking at the markets. The markets aren't

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Speaker 1: liking it, and so he pushes pause.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think there's that, and I think he's getting

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Speaker 2: a lot of advice from commentary from US business interests.

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Speaker 2: When we know that big car manufacturers went to see

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Speaker 2: him the other day and said, look, if you do this,

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Speaker 2: you're going to wreck the motor vehicle industry in North America,

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Speaker 2: including for US. So maybe it's not a good idea.

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Speaker 2: And you know these things aren't more complicated than they appear.

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Speaker 2: The legislation he used to justify those tariffs on Canada

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Speaker 2: and Mexico was not trade legislation, was about national emergencies,

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Speaker 2: and it's not very well suited to doing you know,

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Speaker 2: I suppose what you call protectionism. But he's got a

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Speaker 2: lot of other trade legislation you can use. And that's

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Speaker 2: the advice he's going to get on the second of April.

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Speaker 1: But that's more difficult to do is, And I mean

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Speaker 1: that's why he's gone with these emergency ones. And that's

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Speaker 1: why he's talking about the likes of fentanyl, you know,

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Speaker 1: coming in from China, because that justifies it under this

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Speaker 1: emergency legislation, doesn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, But yeah, that's right. I mean it's a justification,

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Speaker 2: but of course it has unforeseen consequences, such as the

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Speaker 2: chaos and markets and in relation to manufacturing in North America.

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Speaker 1: Is this because Biden kept some of Trump's tariffs on

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Speaker 1: and there was some on you know, still on aluminium

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Speaker 1: that stayed, and there was some on China that stayed

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Speaker 1: as well. Do you think that there's obviously a base

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Speaker 1: of Republican base who does like taris and who isn'to protectionism?

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Speaker 1: Are we entering a new era even once Trump leaves

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Speaker 1: office in four years, are we is the world changing?

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Speaker 1: Are we turning away from free trade?

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Speaker 2: Well? Well, I think it is fair to say that

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Speaker 2: protectionism and right is rising, and not just in the

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Speaker 2: United States but around the world. We've seen that, you know,

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Speaker 2: in the last you know, even as we've been doing

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Speaker 2: more trade agreements and trying to things up, free things up,

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Speaker 2: more restrictions have come into play. So we're used to that,

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Speaker 2: but I guess these moves in the United States take

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Speaker 2: her to a whole new level. And I mean it's

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Speaker 2: part of what Trump campaigned on. It's part of what

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Speaker 2: he and his administration it pletably thinks in the Americans.

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Speaker 2: It's interests, and you know, it's not necessarily the view

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Speaker 2: of everybody in the United States and around the world,

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Speaker 2: but it has impacts, and the real world impacts can't

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Speaker 2: be ignored. And as time goes by, we are going

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Speaker 2: to see those impacts. I mean, these new tariff on

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Speaker 2: steel now the minium are already causing a lot of

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Speaker 2: headaches for US manufacturing and that'll be compounded as other

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Speaker 2: sectors get added on.

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Speaker 1: The power of the United States is in decline, its

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Speaker 1: influences in decline. Is this the strategy that arrests that slide.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if it rests it or it continues,

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Speaker 2: it makes it worse, accelerates that it makes it worse.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the United States is basically saying it wants

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Speaker 2: to take itself out of the order that has been

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Speaker 2: created around international trade. And you know it's at liberty

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Speaker 2: to do that and to live with the consequences. It's

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Speaker 2: an experiment that the American people are going to see,

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Speaker 2: you know, how that transition pans out for them. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: the rest of the world is also prone to these

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Speaker 2: sorts of things, but not at the same level, and

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Speaker 2: they're still in the rest of them are quite a

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Speaker 2: bit of trade and business that can be done. We

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Speaker 2: shouldn't lose sight of that. But the United States is

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Speaker 2: a big player, no doubt about it, and a key

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Speaker 2: one for New.

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Speaker 1: Zealand absolutely number one for our METex sports too. Steven,

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Speaker 1: thank you for that. Stephen Jacobe, executive director of International

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Speaker 1: Business Forum with US Tonight for more from Heather Duplessy

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