1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,360
Speaker 1: It's August the first. Yes, the deadline is here for

2
00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:06,120
Speaker 1: Trump and his tariffs, but the rest of the world

3
00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,160
Speaker 1: and New Zealand will be waiting probably another twenty four

4
00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:11,680
Speaker 1: hours before we get news from the White House and

5
00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:14,720
Speaker 1: exactly what we will pay. The White House has already

6
00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:18,599
Speaker 1: shaken hands with a few countries Japan, the EU, South Korea, Indonesia,

7
00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,040
Speaker 1: the UK. They're all getting lower rates, but others are

8
00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:23,960
Speaker 1: not so lucky. India you're looking at twenty five percent tariff,

9
00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:28,680
Speaker 1: Bangladesh thirty five percent, Brazilla whopping fifty. Canada have said

10
00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,720
Speaker 1: they're unlikely to reach a deal before the deadline. Mexico

11
00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:35,960
Speaker 1: Overnight has been extended. Alex Deronte is a federal tax

12
00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,560
Speaker 1: economist at the Tax Foundation in the US and joins

13
00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:41,080
Speaker 1: US now. Alex, welcome to the program. Nice to have

14
00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,800
Speaker 1: you here, Hi, thanks for having me. When do we

15
00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,680
Speaker 1: find out? When does the world find out exactly what's

16
00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 1: going on and what that base rate might be?

17
00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:53,559
Speaker 2: I think I think we're going to be staying up

18
00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:57,400
Speaker 2: late and waiting until until midnight to see what actually happens.

19
00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:59,840
Speaker 2: I mean over here as a tax foundation, it is

20
00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:02,680
Speaker 2: quite on starry, even for us on what rates some

21
00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,520
Speaker 2: of these countries are going to be facing. You know,

22
00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:09,720
Speaker 2: right now most countries are facing a ten percent universal

23
00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,720
Speaker 2: baseline tariff that includes Australia and New Zealand. But the

24
00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:17,560
Speaker 2: President has indicated sort of over the past month that

25
00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:20,360
Speaker 2: he has interests I think in moving that baseline tarer

26
00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:25,480
Speaker 2: higher to somewhere between fifteen and twenty percent. So I

27
00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:30,639
Speaker 2: think altogether consumers and businesses should be bracing for higher

28
00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,400
Speaker 2: tariffs and higher prices for sure going forward.

29
00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:35,880
Speaker 1: Do you yet but higher than the team saint? Do

30
00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:37,360
Speaker 1: you think he will up that vice.

31
00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:42,639
Speaker 2: Right right now? I mean we're hearing as I said,

32
00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:45,960
Speaker 2: this is all speculative, of course, but you know, somewhere

33
00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:51,360
Speaker 2: either fifteen percent or twenty percent. If all of the

34
00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:56,520
Speaker 2: reciprocal tariffs go into effect tomorrow as scheduled, that would

35
00:01:56,720 --> 00:02:00,880
Speaker 2: move the average apply tariff rate to just over twenty percent.

36
00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:06,320
Speaker 1: Which big countries, big trading partners of Americas do you

37
00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:07,680
Speaker 1: think should be most concerned?

38
00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,640
Speaker 2: Well, so let's see here, So the president was he

39
00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:17,840
Speaker 2: had well, he announced higher rates on Canada and Mexico.

40
00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:21,760
Speaker 2: Both of those countries are currently paying or rather our

41
00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,880
Speaker 2: consumers to import those goods are paying a twenty five

42
00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:28,119
Speaker 2: percent tariff, and the Kada rate is scheduled to rise

43
00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,680
Speaker 2: by ten percentage points to thirty five percent tomorrow, and

44
00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:35,280
Speaker 2: the Mexico tariff was scheduled to rise to thirty percent,

45
00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:39,160
Speaker 2: but the President announced a ninety day pause on that

46
00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:42,080
Speaker 2: increase in that tariff rate. Kevin, I would also add

47
00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:45,640
Speaker 2: that we need to be concerned about the EU. The

48
00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:49,320
Speaker 2: President did announce that he would be imposing a fifteen

49
00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:53,840
Speaker 2: percent tariff on those imports as part of the of

50
00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:58,200
Speaker 2: the deal that is being currently negotiated right now. And

51
00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:01,800
Speaker 2: then finally, the highest of these parap rates are the

52
00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:06,120
Speaker 2: rates that we're opposing on Chinese imports, which August twelfth

53
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:10,120
Speaker 2: are scheduled to rise to one hundred and twenty five percent.

54
00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:16,360
Speaker 2: So really it's the EU, Mexico, Canada and China we should,

55
00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,000
Speaker 2: you know, continue to be watching house.

56
00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,000
Speaker 1: Americans are obviously watching this as closely as we are.

57
00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,120
Speaker 1: What are they thinking about the fact that he's going

58
00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,360
Speaker 1: to be potentially upping this and he's doing it to

59
00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,760
Speaker 1: friends and allies and it doesn't seem to matter.

60
00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:33,080
Speaker 2: Right Well, I mean, I think, as I said earlier,

61
00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,000
Speaker 2: you know, I think consumers have been so you know,

62
00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:40,200
Speaker 2: businesses have been somewhat fortunate so far, although you know,

63
00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,880
Speaker 2: we're although they're paying much higher tariffs than they did

64
00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,360
Speaker 2: last year. You know, the President did delay you know,

65
00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:50,640
Speaker 2: these reciprocal tariffs for for a few months, but unfortunately,

66
00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:52,800
Speaker 2: you know, it does seem that the President is dead

67
00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:56,560
Speaker 2: set on implementing a host of them tomorrow and that

68
00:03:56,760 --> 00:04:01,480
Speaker 2: is going to likely have significant impacts on prices over

69
00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:02,560
Speaker 2: over the coming month.

70
00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:05,160
Speaker 1: Alex, appreciate your time, Thanks so much for being with us.

71
00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,960
Speaker 1: It's Alex Deronte. He's the federal tax economist at the

72
00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,080
Speaker 1: Tax Foundation over in the United States, and so our

73
00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,960
Speaker 1: gut of the word from our officials over in Washington

74
00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:18,160
Speaker 1: is that that base ten percent will stay, but that

75
00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,960
Speaker 1: Trump is the ultimate decision maker and he can do

76
00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,520
Speaker 1: what he wants. And Alex is telling us there he's

77
00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,040
Speaker 1: hearing it's going to fifteen or twenty. So basically when

78
00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:29,159
Speaker 1: none the wiser at this point in the in the day.

79
00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,360
Speaker 1: For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live

80
00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,479
Speaker 1: to News Talks at b from five am weekdays, or

81
00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:38,480
Speaker 1: follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.