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Speaker 1: Job numbers out today, Big brains are suggesting the unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate will be five point two five point three. Does

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Speaker 1: it really matter? A and Z Chief Economists Sharon zolms

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Speaker 1: back will the Sharon, very good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning mate.

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Speaker 1: My big question is five point two five point three

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Speaker 1: is this? It has it peaked?

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Speaker 2: That's our forecast. That's a pretty common forecast that this

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Speaker 2: is probably about it, which is historically a relatively low

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Speaker 2: peak in the unemployment rate, if you can go back

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Speaker 2: to say the early nineteen nineties. Of course that's cold

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Speaker 2: comfort for the people who are caught up in it,

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Speaker 2: but given the depth of the recession that we had

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Speaker 2: last year, there was always going to be to the

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Speaker 2: labor market, and it does tend to come with quite

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Speaker 2: a lag. So, given the economy is now recovering, albeit

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Speaker 2: not not rapidly, this should be around the peak.

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Speaker 1: Okay, any sense of how it tails off for the

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Speaker 1: rest of the year and the so called recovery picking

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Speaker 1: up in the latter part of twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So in our latest forecast revisions, we did actually

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Speaker 2: side that unemployment will hold up at that peak for

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Speaker 2: just a bit longer, because we've just taken a bit

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Speaker 2: of growth out of our forecast. So that's partly because

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Speaker 2: some of the data's been looking a little sluggish, but

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Speaker 2: partly also because we're assuming there will be a bit

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Speaker 2: of a confidence impact from this global stuff that seems

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Speaker 2: to have settled down now. I don't think anyone would

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Speaker 2: say it's over, and certainly our latest business outlooks surve

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Speaker 2: they did so this there has been a confidence impact.

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Speaker 2: The question is just how long lasting that will be.

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Speaker 1: Is it variable when you look at the numbers, will

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Speaker 1: dive into the numbers regionally and age wise, in other words,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of young people in the usual parts

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Speaker 1: of the country.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. The data is based on a survey, so

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Speaker 2: it can get pretty volatile when you go down to

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Speaker 2: the regional level. But certainly age wise, it's always be

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Speaker 2: the case that young people maldi people Pacific Islanders, they're

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Speaker 2: just on a bigger rollercoaster. When it comes to the

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Speaker 2: labor market, well, they have higher average unemployments but also

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Speaker 2: much much bigger swings as well. So it's certainly true

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Speaker 2: that recessions are not felt remotely.

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Speaker 1: Evenly, they are not Sharon appreciate it as almost Sharon

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Speaker 1: Zola aims at Chief Economists coverage throughout the day, of course,

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