1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,480 Speaker 1: Confirmation that the economy grew strongly in the third quarter 2 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: of the year is welcome news before Christmas. Finance Minister 3 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:09,760 Speaker 1: Nikola Willis stated in the first line of her press 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: release yesterday, welcome news may be a bit of an 5 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: understatement given the context of recent attempts to undermine Nicola 6 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 1: Willis in the government's approach to writing the economy. Willis 7 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: also needed the good GEDP news after a disappointing hearfy 8 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 1: economic and Fiscal update on Tuesday in which almost every 9 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: economic and fiscal indicator moved e was so slightly in 10 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: the wrong direction. The GDP results showed the economy to 11 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: better than expected in the September quarter, growing one point 12 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 1: one percent GDP per capitoo zero point nine percent for 13 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 1: the quarter, if that's how you prefer to measure it. 14 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: The increase in economic activity was broad based, with increases 15 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 1: in fourteen of the sixteen industry that Stats New Zealand 16 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 1: looked at, so that this is good news. But the 17 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: problem with GDP figures is that they're provisional and often revised, 18 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: and that's what's happened with the previous JOOM call, which 19 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 1: did worse than previously thought. Falling one percent. If you 20 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: look at it from an annual point of view, from 21 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: September to September, the economy contracted point five percent. So 22 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 1: these numbers provide an overview of what's going on. They 23 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: are a sign of a gentle uptick rather than a 24 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:22,039 Speaker 1: booming recovery, but they don't give politicians a true sense 25 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 1: of what's going on in New Zealander's day to day lives. 26 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: As Liam Dann wrote in The Herald this week, GDP 27 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: doesn't capture wealth distribution. It doesn't tell us about the 28 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 1: health of our nation or the overall happiness of its people. 29 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,199 Speaker 1: As the end of the year approaches, Luxeon and Wallis 30 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 1: survive twenty five to enjoy a summer barbecue in a 31 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 1: bevy or two and get to return to their leadership 32 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: roles in twenty twenty six. But hopefully they and their 33 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: political colleagues will spend some time over the summer listening 34 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 1: to ordinary kiwis to get a sense of how New 35 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 1: Zealanders feel about the cost of living, job security, and 36 00:01:56,280 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: the challenges facing those running a business. Yesterday's GDP figures 37 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: give Willis breathing room, but the pressure is on Next year. 38 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 1: Willis is excellent at sticking to her core messaging of 39 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: fiscal discipline without causing misery to voters. It's a plan 40 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 1: that holds some risk. There's a little room to deal 41 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:18,359 Speaker 1: with the consequence of potential natural disasters or global financial 42 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 1: crisis in the near future. But look, this steady as 43 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 1: you go message will remain next year. And yet there's 44 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: a sense the hard yards haven't started yet. If we're 45 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 1: going to meet the twenty twenty nine twenty thirty surplus target, 46 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,239 Speaker 1: the rule that is likely going to have to come 47 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: out again. Social services and public services will most likely 48 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: be the targets. In the meantime, we can head into 49 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: the new year with some cautious optimism that the economy 50 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: may have pecked a look around the corner. I like 51 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,239 Speaker 1: the expression one of my listeners suggested to me on 52 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: Sunday Brick by Brick in twenty six Maybe then we 53 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: might have built something a little bit more stable by 54 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: twenty two. For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge, 55 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 1: listen live to News Talk Set B from five am weekdays, 56 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.