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Speaker 1: So you're just joining us this morning neighbors announced it's

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Speaker 1: a narrow capital gains tax. You have you have to say,

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Speaker 1: doesn't apply to businesses yet, doesn't apply to farms yet,

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Speaker 1: doesn't apply to key we saver yet, shares yet inheritance yet.

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Speaker 1: What it does apply to is commercial property and residential

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Speaker 1: property outside the family home sold after the first of

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Speaker 1: July twenty twenty seven. This court, of course, is all

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Speaker 1: on the proviso that they get back in the government.

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Speaker 1: Brad Olfson infametrics with me this morning. Brad, good morning,

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Speaker 1: good morning. Yeah, they're taking the narrow option.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean a very narrow option, as you say,

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Speaker 2: focused on residential and commercial property. I think, I mean

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Speaker 2: that's really because of the politics of this all. But

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Speaker 2: at the same time, as an economist, it does make

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Speaker 2: you wonder why they didn't go broader given this, Well,

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Speaker 2: looking at the likes of the housing market and similar

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Speaker 2: at the moment, there's not a huge amount of gains

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Speaker 2: happening in there, so the ability to produce revenue is

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Speaker 2: a lot different from when we had the capital gains

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Speaker 2: tax a while ago. But realistically, again it seems like

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Speaker 2: you got this sort of very very narrow definition. If

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Speaker 2: it's not wide and broad based, it does sort of

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Speaker 2: be the question, why we're bothering with something so so specific?

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Speaker 1: How much would it raise? Do you reckon?

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Speaker 2: Well, that's sort of that the question I've been asking

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Speaker 2: myself the last sort of ten to fifteen minutes since

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Speaker 2: getting the releases. I don't know. There's no costings that

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Speaker 2: are outlined in the release around what might be brought

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Speaker 2: in or what the expectations might be. Now, as an

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Speaker 2: economic forecast, I get that putting out numbers can be difficult,

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Speaker 2: but it's hard to sort of assess if we're talking

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Speaker 2: ten million, one hundred million, or a billion dollars worth

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Speaker 2: of revenue over any sort of time period. I think,

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Speaker 2: given the limitations, and given how narrow of a capital

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Speaker 2: gains text expansion is being talked about here, I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: expect it to be a huge money spinner. But again,

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Speaker 2: it's sort of hard to evaluate given there's just no

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Speaker 2: details that I can see.

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Speaker 1: There's more blank space on this release than the art words. Brad,

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Speaker 1: what about the issue if you were an elderly person

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Speaker 1: listening to this radio show this morning, and you have

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Speaker 1: purchased a commercial property or a couple of rental properties

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Speaker 1: to your retirement and you were planning on selling them

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Speaker 1: in the next few years. This is going to be

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Speaker 1: a real kick in the guts.

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Speaker 2: Well, it might seem like that to start with. I

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Speaker 2: think we do have to take a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a breath before we get sort of too much into

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Speaker 2: all of that, because my expectation, again without having read

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Speaker 2: absolutely every new sort of legal piece has come out

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Speaker 2: on this in the last fifteen is that it will

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Speaker 2: likely only apply to those gains after the start of

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Speaker 2: the period. So if you bought something five years ago

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Speaker 2: and it's made one hundred K, it's not going to

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Speaker 2: get taxed until you start to make a gain after,

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Speaker 2: say twenty twenty seven. So I think we do have

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Speaker 2: to hold our breath a little bit on that because

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Speaker 2: people often say, well, I bought something thirty years ago

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Speaker 2: and now it's going to get taxed to all kingdom. Come. No,

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Speaker 2: that's not actually the case, but there is, I guess

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Speaker 2: a question over again how people might spend their money

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Speaker 2: or invest in the future. Question of course also of

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Speaker 2: politics and how this plays out, what the vote does,

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Speaker 2: and everything else.

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Speaker 1: Appreciate your time, Brad brad Olson infor metrics.

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