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Speaker 1: Good news on housing. Very happy days for the first

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Speaker 1: time buyer. At the moment got a twenty seven percent

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Speaker 1: market share. Now that is the highest in twenty years.

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Speaker 1: Long term average is twenty one to twenty two percent.

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Speaker 1: Kelvin Davidson is the chief property economist to Totality and

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Speaker 1: he's with us Calvin Morning, Good morning. So rates are down,

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Speaker 1: we're in like robbers dogs. Is that how that works?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean first time buyers certainly are. Yeah, but

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Speaker 2: I mean first time buyers have been a success story

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Speaker 2: of the market for a while there. Actually they're taking

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Speaker 2: advantage of lower rates, but tapping in the kiwisaver that's

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Speaker 2: been part of it, and also tapping into low deposit

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Speaker 2: learning allowances at the banks. There's definitely some things in

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Speaker 2: their favor at the mark.

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Speaker 1: Are the investors still on the sideline hence helping the

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Speaker 1: choice for the first homer.

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Speaker 2: No, investors are definitely coming back. So they've had a

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Speaker 2: tough couple of years, but a few roll forward to

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Speaker 2: the most recent sixty nine months, I'd say that they're

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Speaker 2: really getting back in. And I mean tax rules have

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Speaker 2: shifted back in favor of property investment. But for me,

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Speaker 2: the big thing there is sort of the lower mortgage rates,

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Speaker 2: the top ups, the cliched moment that investor would have

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Speaker 2: to put in has gone down a lot, and it's

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Speaker 2: very visible, real cash for them. So yeah, they're returning.

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Speaker 1: To good And this is all over the country or

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Speaker 1: cheaper parts of the country, all where.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's pretty broad based. So the first time buyer

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Speaker 2: is a pretty strong ifeware and investors are suddenly coming

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Speaker 2: back to Right across the board, Auckland, despite the fact

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Speaker 2: that the Auckland house prices are high and approach the

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Speaker 2: rental yields are a bit lower than elsewhere. Auckland's been

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Speaker 2: a strong market for investors in the last six to

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Speaker 2: nine months too. So yeah, that's pretty much across the board.

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Speaker 1: What do you do see? Two more cuts are coming.

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Speaker 1: He didn't confirm them, but he hinted they maybe as

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Speaker 1: of this week. So if you've got two more you

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Speaker 1: sort of are you sitting here? You a bit sort of?

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Speaker 1: Maybe maybe I'll wait.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think we'll see that pass through

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Speaker 2: to some more interest rate cuts at the longer rate cuts,

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Speaker 2: I mean, at the the shorter end of the curve.

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Speaker 2: But I suppose the thing that people are just waiting

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Speaker 2: for at the moment is around the economy, around the

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Speaker 2: labor market, particularly sort of job uncertain downing. That's probably

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Speaker 2: keeping some people on the sidelines. But role Ford the

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Speaker 2: early part next year, unemployment rate starts to come down,

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Speaker 2: leg defective interest rates comes through. I think there's some

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Speaker 2: reasons to be more optimistic.

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Speaker 1: Fantastic, Calvin, Well, you have a good weekend. We love optimism.

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Speaker 1: I felt like Nikola Willis told me off this week.

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Speaker 1: Did you feel the same way when she talked about

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Speaker 1: patriotism and getting out there and talking about the economy

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Speaker 1: and the naysayers and stuff. I thought, I'm being told

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Speaker 1: off here. Calvin Davidson, chief property economist at Curtality. By

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Speaker 1: the way, B and Z tell us that the average

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Speaker 1: new borrower is two hundred and seventy dollars a month

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Speaker 1: better off. Average mortgage rate paid in June was five

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Speaker 1: to sixty six, down from six to thirty nine. Likely

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Speaker 1: the average is going to go down to about five

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Speaker 1: by the end of the year. So at a rate

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Speaker 1: of sixty thretey nine, your average first timer mortgage of

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Speaker 1: five seven five was paying three and a half grand

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Speaker 1: a month or right twenty nine a week. Versus thirty

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Speaker 1: three hundred hour or seven hundred and sixty seven a week,

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Speaker 1: so you are feeling better. And I note this morning

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Speaker 1: in Britain, for the first time in many years, the

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Speaker 1: average first home mortgage is four point nine, so they're

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Speaker 1: doing a little bit better than us, but not as

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Speaker 1: I gave it to thirty year number of America. It's

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Speaker 1: we're better than America, but not as good as Britain,

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Speaker 1: if that makes any difference to you.

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