1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: From JMI Wealth Andrew kellerher welcome back. 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 2: It's good to be back, Mike. 3 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Always retail spending will talk about shortly, but tied in 4 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:11,399 Speaker 1: with that as jobs. Do I see some life in 5 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:11,920 Speaker 1: the jobs? 6 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 3: Mike? 7 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: Can I be slightly optimistic or not? 8 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 3: Well, you're an optimistic guy, Mike, So I think there's 9 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 3: a you know, there's ways of looking at this. The 10 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 3: more conservative approach is stabilization. But yeah, now now that 11 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 3: the excitement of the budgets and the rearview rearview mirror, 12 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 3: we can sort of continue the postgame analysis that of 13 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 3: course of the week. But there was data released on 14 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 3: Friday which gives us signals about the sort of state. 15 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: Of the nation. 16 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 3: One of them was this BE and Z seek Employment report. Now, 17 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 3: just in talking about that budget, Mike, within within in 18 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 3: addition to the budget itself, you've got treasuries, budgets, economic 19 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 3: and fiscal update. There's one hundred and sixty one pages 20 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 3: of joy in there and lots of forecasts. So we 21 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 3: could spend the next ten fifteen minutes talking about this. 22 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 3: But the economic crovery is now forecast to be slower 23 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 3: than it the half year update, and in the forecast 24 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 3: unemployment is slated to peak at five point four percent 25 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 3: in the June quarter. 26 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 2: Then it is is gradually over ensuing years to four 27 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 2: point three percent. So we're right in the NADIA. We're 28 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: right in the low point of employment right now MIC 29 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 2: according to that. 30 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 3: So the Bnztzek report it has the title signs of stabilization. 31 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 3: So job ads increased one point one percent in April. 32 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 3: That is the second consecutive month that they have increased. 33 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 3: I think a conservative core market would be too early 34 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 3: to call the bounce. But what you can say is 35 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 3: the employment market doesn't seem to be getting worse. We're 36 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 3: so we are though, look if I look at the start, 37 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 3: they might coming off a very low base. So job 38 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 3: ads are still nine point six percent below levels from 39 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:50,639 Speaker 3: a year ago, and if you look back to twenty 40 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 3: twenty two, we are still forty eight percent below the 41 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 3: number of job ads there. And there's also a shift 42 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:58,559 Speaker 3: you can see within the DARTA mark. There's a shift 43 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 3: from full time work to part homework you can. 44 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: See in the jobs. 45 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 3: And that's what people do when when the employment market 46 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 3: starts to get a little bit tighty and move people 47 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 3: to part time. 48 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: Okay, optimism question number two bitter spending. 49 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, more money, more money. So retail retails down the dumps, 50 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 2: isn't it? 51 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,079 Speaker 3: Along with HOSPO and the anecdotal evidence and company evidence 52 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 3: seems to reinforce the green shoots in these areas are 53 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 3: hard to find. So yes, it was a little surprising 54 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 3: in a good sense to see better than expected retail 55 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,239 Speaker 3: trade numbers released on Friday by statsn' z. 56 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 2: So these are quarterly numbers. 57 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 3: This adds to the picture the millieure that we get 58 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:35,959 Speaker 3: from the monthly electronic card transaction data. 59 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 2: Retail trade volumes lifted zero point eight percent. 60 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 3: Quarter on quarter, stronger than the local economists had expected, 61 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 3: so consensus they're looking at little or no move. The 62 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:49,519 Speaker 3: previous quarter was also revised up, albeit very small, from 63 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 3: zero point nine. 64 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 2: Percent to one percent. 65 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 3: Now, look, retail trade, it isn't the biggest contributor to GDP, 66 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 3: I think is less than ten percent, but this number 67 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 3: is moving in the right direction. Yearly tail trade volumes 68 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 3: increased by zero point seven percent. Also, MIKE seems to 69 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 3: be a relatively broad based across sectors and regions, so 70 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 3: ten out of fifteen categories have seen increases in volumes. 71 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:12,519 Speaker 2: Just a wee damp. 72 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 3: Now, I don't mean to rain on the parade, but 73 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,399 Speaker 3: core retail was only up zero point four percent, which 74 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 3: is not exactly frothy, But there are some there's some 75 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 3: pockets of light in the discretionary spending clothing, footwear, specialized food. 76 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 2: And we keep saying it might. 77 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 3: We keep saying that effect of lower mortgage rates slowly 78 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:33,079 Speaker 3: feeding where through their way through the New Zealand households 79 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 3: should provide support for spending over the second half of 80 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five. 81 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 2: But we're waiting. We're we're just waiting for that to 82 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 2: show up in the data. 83 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: Speaking of spending from the budget, would you if you 84 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: can write it off? Is this where we're heading with us? 85 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 2: Sorry? In what sense? 86 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 1: The investment boost? 87 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 2: The investment boost? 88 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, so I was in Sydney last week, got 89 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 3: back Friday night and catching up on the budget over 90 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 3: the weekend. This investment boost seems to be the seems 91 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 3: to be the key talking point, doesn't it. Lots of 92 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 3: comments over the weekend. I just want to make a 93 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 3: couple of very quick comments. 94 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 2: Mike. The cost to the government is in the form 95 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 2: of lower tax revenue. 96 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 3: The government doesn't actually pay out anything, and that seems 97 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 3: to be a little bit of a misconception. 98 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 2: Scope is very wide, captures. 99 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 3: Many many areas of spend no cap But Mike, remember 100 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 3: if business is able to claim a big depreciation expense spence. 101 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 2: What have they done. 102 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 3: They have invested a lot of money and that is 103 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 3: beneficial to the local economy. Should be a talent to 104 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 3: companies looking to commit capital expenditure. 105 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 2: It should improve confidence and that is critical. 106 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 1: Fingers cross numbers please. 107 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 3: The Dow Jones fell turnured and fifty six points trump 108 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 3: more sort of tariff dramas there so took a bit 109 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 3: of the window of the sales of the market forty 110 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 3: one thousand, six hundred and three down point six percent 111 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 3: than as it was also downpoint and as it was 112 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 3: down one percent actually eighteen thousand, seven hundred and thirty seven, 113 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 3: and the S and P five hundred down points sixty 114 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 3: seven of a percent, the forty one hundred down twenty one. 115 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 2: Eight seven one seven a couter percent fall. 116 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,679 Speaker 3: The Nikke just gained half percent actually point four seven, 117 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy five points thirty seven thousand, one 118 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 3: hundred and sixty The Shanghai composite down just under one percent, 119 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 3: the A six two hundred gain to twelve points on Friday, 120 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 3: up fifteen point one five percent eight three six oh, 121 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:20,679 Speaker 3: the N six fifty down sixty six points on Friday 122 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 3: twelve thousand, five hundred and ninety six one Kiwi dollar 123 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 3: will get your point five nine seven three against the 124 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:30,040 Speaker 3: US point nine one seven seven OZSI point five to 125 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 3: sixty two against the Euro point four four o six 126 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,840 Speaker 3: pounds eighty five point one at Japanese end. Gold is 127 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 3: still strong three thousand, three hundred and fifty seven dollars 128 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 3: and fifty one cents and Brent crude sixty four dollars 129 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 3: and seventy eight cents. Good. 130 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: Have you back, Andrew kellaher Joemowels dot co dot m Z. 131 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,359 Speaker 1: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 132 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: News Talk z B from six am weekdays, or follow 133 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,159 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio