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Speaker 1: We were not, kay, do you know what it is?

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Speaker 1: What like seven years since green Felt at Tower? Do

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Speaker 1: you remember it went up and flames seven years ago?

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Speaker 1: The final report is going to be published this morning,

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Speaker 1: like as in this morning UK time, overnight our time.

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Speaker 1: Kevin Grave will talk us through it in ten minutes time. Now.

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Speaker 1: I don't want you to always feel miserable about New Zealand,

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Speaker 1: like we're the only people who can be idiots? Why not?

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Speaker 1: This will make you feel better about us. I'll tell

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Speaker 1: you something for nothing. Do you remember that bike crack

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Speaker 1: that that Tories mates bought in Wellington that costs about

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Speaker 1: eighty four thousand dollars on Oriental Parade And it was

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Speaker 1: like state of the art, gold plated, highly mechanic robot

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Speaker 1: bike rack. It was like, wow, what an amazing bike rack.

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Speaker 1: Eighty four k Irish have done one better. These guys

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Speaker 1: have built a small bike shelter next to the Parliamentary

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Speaker 1: buildings for six hundred thousand New Zealand dollars. It doesn't

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Speaker 1: even do what Tori's bike rack does. It doesn't even

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Speaker 1: have like a little like lifting thing that will sort

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Speaker 1: of hydraulically lift your bikes up and stack them on

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Speaker 1: level two of the bike crack. Nothing flash like that.

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Speaker 1: It's literally a canopy. It is a back wall of

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Speaker 1: sort of like corr It looks like it's just stupid

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Speaker 1: corrugated plastic. It's probably a bit flash than that, but

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Speaker 1: it's basically what it looks like. Corrugated plastic backwall, corrugated

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Speaker 1: plastic roof. That's gonna get moldy in Ireland, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: And then that's it. And then they've got little eighteen

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Speaker 1: little bike racks and you can put your bike racks

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Speaker 1: in there and think about it. If the rain comes

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Speaker 1: even slightly sideways, six hundred thousand is going to be

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Speaker 1: no good for anything. Those bikes are still going to

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Speaker 1: get wet. So we are not the only ones with

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Speaker 1: the monopoly on stupid ideas. How good twenty two away

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Speaker 1: from seven Heller duper Clan now Kiwis are weirdly not

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Speaker 1: expecting and uptick and house prices anytime soon. And that's

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Speaker 1: even the the interest rates are coming down. So ASB

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Speaker 1: has done its latest housing confidence survey found a net

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Speaker 1: thirteen percent of respondents reckon house prices will increase. That

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Speaker 1: is down from down by more than thirty percent. Compared

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Speaker 1: with the last quarter. Chief economists at ASB Bank, Nick

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Speaker 1: Toughley's with us, now, hey, Nick, hey there, why are

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Speaker 1: they so gloomy?

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Speaker 2: I think when we're looking at this period over May

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Speaker 2: June July, there was a noticeable pullback and optimism, shall

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Speaker 2: we say, over May, and that does coincide with when

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Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank came out with that sort of very

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Speaker 2: stern sermon that interest rates are not going to be

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Speaker 2: coming down anytime soon. So we certainly saw a bit

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Speaker 2: of deflation and that sort of optimism for house prices

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Speaker 2: coming through, at least in the first couple of months, seems.

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Speaker 1: To have landed slightly differently compared you know, depending on

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Speaker 1: where you are in the country. Why is it being

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Speaker 1: felt so pessimistically in Auckland.

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Speaker 2: I think in Auckland people is a living and dying

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Speaker 2: by that mortgage rate, just given the size of mortgages.

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Speaker 2: So we did see from the pre quarter where Auckland

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Speaker 2: was relatively optimistic, finished the quarter quite optimistic, and it

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Speaker 2: saw its expectations around house prices fall back quite a lot.

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Speaker 2: You could also see in the interest rate expectations that

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Speaker 2: there was quite a lot of oscillating around people certainly

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Speaker 2: got a bit darker in the mood over the prospects

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Speaker 2: of interest rate decreases over June, or there's signs of

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Speaker 2: that started to change a lot right across the board

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Speaker 2: in the country when we started to roll into July

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Speaker 2: and started speculating about the interest rate declines that we

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Speaker 2: started to see.

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Speaker 1: Is it possible that people have started to realize that

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Speaker 1: house prices will probably never go up at the rate

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Speaker 1: that they did during COVID. Are people starting to get

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Speaker 1: realistic about what comes next?

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Speaker 2: We've had a degree of that. We did see quite

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Speaker 2: a lot of euphoria late last year when the housing

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Speaker 2: market did start to pick up about the extent to

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Speaker 2: which house prices would go up, so very very strong

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Speaker 2: results historically coming through at that point. I think people

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Speaker 2: just need to bear in minds, Yes, interest rates going down,

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Speaker 2: we're not going back to a two percent mortgage of

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Speaker 2: any time soon, and the economy is in a slower state.

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Speaker 2: Unemployment is more challenging than what it was a few

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Speaker 2: years ago as well.

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Speaker 1: I found it fascinating that only a net eight percent

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Speaker 1: think now is a good time to buy Now what's

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Speaker 1: going on here?

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Speaker 2: Nick?

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Speaker 1: Because now is the perfect time to buy, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: If I think we'll see this ambivalence change a little bit,

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Speaker 2: it is quite a funny one. We tend to find

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Speaker 2: that people think it's a terrible time to buy in

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Speaker 2: the midst of a housing boom, when everybody is nonetheless

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Speaker 2: nonetheless buying is the peculiar behavior that we see there.

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Speaker 2: So look, you are right when you look at affordability,

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Speaker 2: interest rates falling, house prices have not exactly going up

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Speaker 2: at the moment. It is certainly a buyer's market out there,

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Speaker 2: and particularly when you look at how much stock there

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Speaker 2: is on the market. So affordability is good. It is

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Speaker 2: going to get better. But the problem is is that

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Speaker 2: we'll see that come up a bit more competition as

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Speaker 2: well as we head over twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff. It's good to talk to you mate, look

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Speaker 1: after yourself. That's an a toughly chief economist at ASB Bank.

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Speaker 1: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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