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Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from news Talks B. Follow

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Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcast now on iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 1: It's time for all the attitude, all the opinion, all

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Speaker 1: the information, all the debates of the now, the Leyton

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Speaker 1: Smith Podcast powered by news Talks B.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to podcast two hundred and eighty eight for June eleven,

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. Romania. I grew up knowing that Romania

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Speaker 2: was the home of Transylvania, which in turn was associated

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Speaker 2: with Dracula, howling wolves, silver bullets, silver crosses, as portrayed

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Speaker 2: in scary movies. Well that's not the profile of Romania today.

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Speaker 2: After decades as part of the Soviet Union, Romania is

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Speaker 2: maturing into a Western style democracy, although it's not yet

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Speaker 2: fully there. As with Poland, Romania has just had an

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Speaker 2: election which provided some considerable controversy. Romania is also included

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Speaker 2: in a list of countries that are important to the

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Speaker 2: rest of the world, and more importantly where it's headed. Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria.

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Speaker 2: Those states and more are worthy of more attention than

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Speaker 2: they're getting. And let's not forget the Black Sea. Antonia.

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Speaker 2: Karabasanu is a professor of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics and International

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Speaker 2: Relations at the Romanian National University, and as we've discovered,

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Speaker 2: she will provide plenty of information on the current state

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Speaker 2: of play and possibly the future of same. But first

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Speaker 2: I had a hard decision to make, and let me

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Speaker 2: lead you into it. Here are some current headlines that

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Speaker 2: I would have loved to have dealt with. Australia elects

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Speaker 2: weak tea bag to lead the country. Boy has it? Ever,

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Speaker 2: there's plenty to be said on that, Adirn. If she

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Speaker 2: insists on being remembered, I'll oblige. From Lindsay Mitchell the

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Speaker 2: UK's net zero strait jacket, crushing costs and wishful thinking.

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Speaker 2: Tas Mania quietly points to our socialist future.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: That was written by Michael de Percy, who we had

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Speaker 2: guesting a few weeks ago, and I would have liked

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Speaker 2: to have included that too, but there's only so much.

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Speaker 2: Roger Paltridge also New Zealand's real economic problem too little capital,

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Speaker 2: not too much profit. But the shall we say subject

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Speaker 2: azure is something written by Owen Jennings, who has been

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Speaker 2: associated with farming etc. For a lifetime. Why the indecent

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Speaker 2: haste prime Minister, let me quote two sections of this,

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Speaker 2: because it's very important and we've touched on it before,

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Speaker 2: and so have other people. There are times when you

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Speaker 2: want your government to be in a greater hurry, when

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Speaker 2: reforms are urgently needed, like the moribund RMA. You just

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Speaker 2: wish the leadership would get on and deliver change. Occasionally

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Speaker 2: you need them to slow down or stop because the

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Speaker 2: matter is complex, has not been adequately risk assessed, needs

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Speaker 2: more research or longer time for public submissions or expert advice.

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Speaker 2: National dominated governments over the years have been cautious, even timid,

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Speaker 2: on reform. So it comes as a shock that our

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Speaker 2: usually risk averse prime minister is leading a strong charge

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Speaker 2: to deregulate the law controlling genetically modified organisms. It is

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Speaker 2: a matter of grave concern affecting all kiwis. What is

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Speaker 2: being proposed and rushed through will institute the most unrestrained

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Speaker 2: and least regulated regime in the world. The problem is

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Speaker 2: that much of the modifying process is a very tight

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Speaker 2: one way street, make one mistake, have one minor breach,

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Speaker 2: failed to consider one aspect, and it is possible to

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Speaker 2: be in a situation where there is no recovery, no

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Speaker 2: going back no way to get a genie back in

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Speaker 2: the bottle. National wants economic growth. Opening up the agricultural

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Speaker 2: sector to less regulated gene editing and the more wholesale

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Speaker 2: use of GMOs could be a quick way to get

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Speaker 2: quantum leaps in production, but there are no guarantees and

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Speaker 2: the evidence for increased production from gene manipulation is scant.

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Speaker 2: Acts wants to deregulate when possible, and New Zealand first

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Speaker 2: seems stuck in the headlights, concerned but not yet reaching

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Speaker 2: for the handbrake. Yet the changes are being hustled through

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Speaker 2: the rush to force changes to the regulations by a

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Speaker 2: typically reform shy National is raising questions in the farming community.

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Speaker 2: Why the indecent haste. Is there another agenda? Some of

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Speaker 2: the scientific community, spurred on by green interests, see GMOs

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Speaker 2: as a major mitigation tool for reducing ruminant methane emissions,

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Speaker 2: although the proof is very disputable. Rather than face the

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Speaker 2: reality that our ruminants are not causing any problem and

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Speaker 2: that decisive boldness to state that clearly is required, rather

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Speaker 2: than more taxpayer funding thrown at research, we are getting

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Speaker 2: a potentially dangerous backdoor mechanism. It is shortsighted. Let me

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Speaker 2: jump to the conclusion, mister Prime Minister, this is the

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Speaker 2: most important decision made in agricultural circles in decades, maybe ever.

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Speaker 2: Gene editing and the introduction of GMOs is most likely

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Speaker 2: a one way street. There is no going back. Such

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Speaker 2: a momentous decision involving such complex and fraught science, where

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Speaker 2: there are vested interests that need exposure, and where there

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Speaker 2: are significant reservations stated by industry and by consumer groups,

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Speaker 2: by scientists who have an in depth understanding of the issues,

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Speaker 2: is ringing loud alarm bells. As the leader of our nation,

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Speaker 2: it should weigh heavily on your conscience as to whether

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Speaker 2: your rushed introduction of the US changes is going to

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Speaker 2: not just return to haunt you personally and your cabinet team,

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Speaker 2: but have history record you as the Prime Minister who

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Speaker 2: made a fateful decision. All it takes would be to

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Speaker 2: establish a full and proper open inquiry process led by independent,

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Speaker 2: reputable persons that systematically traverse all the issues, listen carefully

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Speaker 2: to all sides of the debate, and reported back in

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Speaker 2: due time. Our farmers implore you to slow down. We

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Speaker 2: are with you on wanting progress. We want to see growth.

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Speaker 2: Our sector thrives on and leads on many fronts to

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Speaker 2: the nation's gain. But this is too hasty, indecently hasty.

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Speaker 2: I don't think I've read anything anything that I can

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Speaker 2: remember that was written so forcefully, so confrontingly, and maybe

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Speaker 2: even so important in my life. And I congratulate Owen

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Speaker 2: Jennings for writing it. And my message to the Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister is very simple. The Prime Minister before you left office,

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Speaker 2: because she could see what was coming. You want to

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Speaker 2: put yourself in that same category down the track. The

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Speaker 2: previous Prime Minister lives overseas pretty much because as people

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Speaker 2: are saying, she doesn't have the courage to live here again,

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Speaker 2: do you ought to fall into that category? There's an

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Speaker 2: old old saying, you know, old sayings that never die.

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Speaker 2: The old saying is stupid is as stupid does. In

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Speaker 2: a moment, we go to Romania. Buckerlan is a natural

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Speaker 2: oral vaccine in a tablet form called bacterial I say

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Speaker 2: it it'll boost your natural protection against bacterial infections in

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Speaker 2: your chest and throat. A three day course of seven

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Speaker 2: Buckelan tablets will help your body build up to three

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Speaker 2: months of immunity against bugs which cause bacterial cold symptoms.

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Speaker 2: So who can take buccolan well, the whole family from

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Speaker 2: two years of age and upwards. A course of buccolan

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Speaker 2: tablets offers cost effective and safe protection from colds and chills.

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Speaker 2: Protection becomes effective a few days after you take buccolin

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Speaker 2: and lasts for up to three months following the three

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Speaker 2: day course. Buccolin can be taken throughout the cold season,

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Speaker 2: over winter or all the year round. And remember Buckelan

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Speaker 2: is not intended as an alternative to influenza vaccination, but

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Speaker 2: may be used along with the flu vaccination for added protection.

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Speaker 2: And keep in mind that millions of doses have been

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Speaker 2: taken by kiwis for over fifty years. Only available from

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Speaker 2: your pharmacist. Always read the label and users directed and

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Speaker 2: see your doctor if systems persist. Farmer Broker Auckland. Antonio

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Speaker 2: Colabasanu is a Senior Fellow for the Eurasia Program at

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Speaker 2: the Foreign Policy Research Institute. She is also Associate Professor

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Speaker 2: of geopolitics and Geoeconomics on International Relations at the Romanian

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Speaker 2: National University of Political Studies and Public Administration. Now there

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Speaker 2: is a very long list of qualifications that she has

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Speaker 2: but probably the most important one I've left to the last.

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Speaker 2: She is embedded with George Friedman and geopolitical futures before that,

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Speaker 2: as I just discovered a while back, she worked in

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Speaker 2: association was George at his previous operation, which was which.

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Speaker 3: Was stratfor And yes, I've worked for way too long

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Speaker 3: in essence with George, but I'm glad to do so

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Speaker 3: my career.

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Speaker 2: Well, I could only say that you must have a

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Speaker 2: lot of patience. So I welcome to the vodcast anyway,

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Speaker 2: strange way of getting here, but here we are. Look,

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Speaker 2: I want to start with something that I know will

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Speaker 2: find favor with those listening, and that is the blackout

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Speaker 2: that the Spanish experienced just a few weeks ago April

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Speaker 2: twenty eight. Actually, millions across Spain, Portugal and pats of

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Speaker 2: France were plunged into darkness after a massive unexpected power outage.

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Speaker 2: Metro systems stalled airport's ground to halt, hospitals switched frantically

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Speaker 2: to backup generators, and critical communication networks collapsed temporarily. Now,

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Speaker 2: of course we covered this in New Zealand, like everybody

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Speaker 2: did around the world. But the article that you wrote,

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Speaker 2: the first line of it is the incident proves that

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Speaker 2: true energy independence is a myth. Would you like to

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Speaker 2: expand on that?

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Speaker 3: Of course, Well, basically you have no energy independence, and

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Speaker 3: that's because networks are interconnected. But beyond that, this push

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Speaker 3: towards the green energy needed to replace fossil energy sources

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Speaker 3: has creative vulnerabilities that are not necessarily understood and therefore

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Speaker 3: they cannot be fully managed. And that's probably the hardest

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Speaker 3: lesson that Spain and Portugal learned throughout the blackout. The

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Speaker 3: problem was that once you have mostly electricity coming from

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Speaker 3: green energy from solar and wind, you do not necessarily

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Speaker 3: have the backout the flow. You do not have an

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Speaker 3: ensured flow of energy and an ensured constancy of energy

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Speaker 3: that the other fossil fuels natural gas, which is not

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Speaker 3: necessarily a fossil fuel, and everything else is giving. So

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Speaker 3: what happened there is because of changes in temperature, everything

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Speaker 3: collapsed and then they didn't know how to put it

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Speaker 3: all back.

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Speaker 4: So that lesson is likely going to get into another

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Speaker 4: lesson for Europe and the European Union in particular, where

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Speaker 4: we have this push towards green we have this idea

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Speaker 4: that we need.

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Speaker 3: To manage climate change. And whatnot. But at the same time,

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Speaker 3: we tend to forget that all changes drive vulnerable elements,

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Speaker 3: and therefore, while we are doing this for one reason

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Speaker 3: or another, we need to be cautious about what could

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Speaker 3: go wrong. And I don't think we have that on

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Speaker 3: our mind. And I believe that right now, the policy discourse,

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Speaker 3: at least time this green energy push is going to

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Speaker 3: be modified because obviously, I mean, if nothing else, the

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Speaker 3: blackout push towards Okay, we also need reliable fossil fuels

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Speaker 3: to maintain constancy in our networks, and green energy cannot

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Speaker 3: ensure independence because everything is linked together. And guess what,

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Speaker 3: we also have vulnerable parts that are linked together because

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Speaker 3: this started in France but did not finish influence. So

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Speaker 3: all that points out that we're in a new thinking mode,

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Speaker 3: at least for green energy and everything that relates to it.

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Speaker 2: So when somebody writes to me after hearing this and

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Speaker 2: says to me, what would she know? She's an economist,

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Speaker 2: she's not a sign scientists, So why does she have

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Speaker 2: the right to say that it's a myth?

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Speaker 3: Well, bottom line, I've read a lot because I had to.

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Speaker 3: So in geopolitics, what we do is looking at those

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Speaker 3: vulnerable sectors that are driving instability, which means that you

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Speaker 3: are looking at elements that would cause unstable economics and

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Speaker 3: therefore unstable politics. So energy is the one factor that

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Speaker 3: cuts into both worlds, because without energy, you cannot really

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Speaker 3: sustain economic production and you cannot sustain social stability because

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Speaker 3: if you do not have economic production, you will have

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Speaker 3: likely protests and unemployment that drive from low economic production

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Speaker 3: and therefore political instability. Let alone. I mean, these these writings,

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Speaker 3: and you know, these readings that I've done during the

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Speaker 3: years starting with Stratford were also related to Russia and

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Speaker 3: Russia's strategy towards Europe and European Union, in particular because

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Speaker 3: Russia basically supported its strategy of resurrecting as a global

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Speaker 3: power through energy raw materials that it is selling all

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Speaker 3: over the globe and in particular for Europe oil and gas.

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Speaker 3: So I had to basically read a lot about what

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Speaker 3: energy means and what this i'd say idea of getting

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Speaker 3: less and less dependent on imports of oil and as

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Speaker 3: through green energy means for the European Union. For a while,

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Speaker 3: I'll also I also served as an honorary advisory in

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Speaker 3: my capacity of toe political analysts for a Romanian energy minister,

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Speaker 3: just because I knew how Russia is playing with all

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Speaker 3: sorts of things, including globbing from green for green energy

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Speaker 3: and Brussels at the time, because it had an interest

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Speaker 3: to maintain itself the only and sole provider of oil

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Speaker 3: and gas and cut down while the Europeans would cut

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Speaker 3: down all fossil fuel production and got into the green

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Speaker 3: energy side. That was profitable for Russia because it knew

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Speaker 3: that Europe needs fossil fuels to maintain this constancy, and

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Speaker 3: therefore it needed to have imports from Russia, while not

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Speaker 3: using themselves would lower the European Union capacity of truly

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Speaker 3: lowering dependency. Again, independency is a myth, but lowering dependency

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Speaker 3: was not and is not. So it's basically from the

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Speaker 3: study of the balance of powers, if you will, through

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Speaker 3: energy that I've learned all things about engineering processes that

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Speaker 3: refer to the way green energy is being produced, how

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Speaker 3: solar and wind are not necessarily reliable because they depend

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Speaker 3: on whether changes and they're very much volatile in some

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Speaker 3: parts more than others in Europe, and other things related

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Speaker 3: to how do you sustain production, how do you sustain

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Speaker 3: the push for policy making and all that sort of thing,

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Speaker 3: which is more political the later part in politicking in

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Speaker 3: Brussels that referred to the balance of power per se,

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Speaker 3: and not even discussing the economics repercussions.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I asked that question because I knew the answer,

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Speaker 2: but I asked it for a specific reason. I wanted

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Speaker 2: to hear you say it. But in this part of

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Speaker 2: the world, Australia has just had an election, as you'd know,

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Speaker 2: and they've voted in a bunch of insane people, and

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Speaker 2: I mean that in a few cases, and as a

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Speaker 2: result of that, net zero is full on. Now net

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Speaker 2: zero is impossible. I know this from all the reading

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Speaker 2: that I've done, but specifically from one expat Kiwi, New Zealander,

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Speaker 2: who was a very highly ranked professor in engineering in

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Speaker 2: the UK pat Cambridge, and I've interviewed him on Northern

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Speaker 2: one occasion and he has explained it.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: The reason I'm telling you this is because he visits

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Speaker 2: back here every couple of years and I know there

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Speaker 2: have been efforts to get him to talk with them,

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Speaker 2: with the politicians, those who are making the decisions and others,

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Speaker 2: and I'm about the only one who would interview him,

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Speaker 2: they didn't want to know. Albeit that, as I said,

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Speaker 2: he's an expant New Zealander, still a whole citizenship, that

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Speaker 2: he is highly that he is highly educated, and he

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Speaker 2: knows exactly what he's talking about and he explains it perfectly.

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Speaker 2: And net zero is a myth. I tell you that

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Speaker 2: for interest sake, I just wonder whether you had the

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Speaker 2: same or a similar approach. You took a similar line

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Speaker 2: toward COVID at its effect.

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Speaker 3: Well basically covered as has been a virus that well,

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Speaker 3: everyone needed to stay away from. But at the same time,

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Speaker 3: there is a balance, and we need to think about

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Speaker 3: the effects that staying away and staying fully protected from

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Speaker 3: the virus, which is rather impossible, I might say, because

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Speaker 3: it's a virus. You couldnt be fully protected from a

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Speaker 3: virus unless you're very, very lucky or live on a

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Speaker 3: cliff somewhere, and even then who knows. I mean. But

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Speaker 3: besides that, getting into full protection chair basically gets to

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Speaker 3: have social effects because obviously there is the science that

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Speaker 3: says this could be deadly and this is how you

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Speaker 3: should protect and this is whatever, you know, the list

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Speaker 3: of things that you need to do. But from science

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Speaker 3: to imposing things that you need to do, you must do.

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Speaker 3: Then we are basically having the science taking over institutions

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Speaker 3: and institutions that relate to rights, to fundamental rights that

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Speaker 3: human beings should have in a working democracy, for instance,

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Speaker 3: which is what we strive for and what we hope

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Speaker 3: to maintain. Now, that caused a lot of side effects.

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Speaker 3: Basically we have the economic side effects. We had the

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Speaker 3: coconomic repercussions, which are very well known, and yes, to

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Speaker 3: a certain extent, it was probably good that we had

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Speaker 3: higher level of protection, higher level of reassuring ourselves that

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Speaker 3: we are doing the right thing that we have you know,

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Speaker 3: the right medicines, and therefore in order to get the

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Speaker 3: right medicines we need to slow down our economic captivity

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Speaker 3: and whatever. But getting ourselves into a situation where we

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Speaker 3: basically did not function as a society was that first

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Speaker 3: for the economics and later for the sociopolitics. I mean,

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Speaker 3: we wonder now in Europe at least, there's this discussion

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Speaker 3: about disinformation and how disinformation basically started during the pandemic. Now,

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Speaker 3: all fears came alive during the pandemic, and when fears

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Speaker 3: come alive, you basically have waves of narratives that refer

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Speaker 3: to those fears, And obviously, because we also live in

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Speaker 3: a world where we have Internet, where we have all

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Speaker 3: sorts of communication channels, and where we have states interested

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Speaker 3: in supporting their own agendas. So yes, states will take

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Speaker 3: those fears and will transform them into sort of propaganda narratives.

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Speaker 3: But the cause, the root cause of that was basically

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Speaker 3: the way we managed COVID. The fact that we made

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Speaker 3: off that virus, which was a very dangerous virus and

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Speaker 3: all that, but the fact that we made of it

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Speaker 3: a source of all fears and we kept it going

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Speaker 3: for years.

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Speaker 2: How how suppressed was society in Romania during that period

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Speaker 2: and for how long.

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Speaker 3: I would think, I mean, compared to others, and obvious China,

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Speaker 3: obviously China is the you know, the most the most

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Speaker 3: obvious example of suppressed society. But in Romania, I don't

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Speaker 3: think we had a level of suppression that went really

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Speaker 3: really high. There was the during the first two years,

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Speaker 3: there were the interdictions of you know, traveling from one

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Speaker 3: place to another, maintaining social distance, making sure that people

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Speaker 3: of elderly age stay in for the rush hours and whatnot.

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Speaker 3: So it was a mild kind of suppression. But at

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Speaker 3: the same time Romania was on the borderland. And when

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Speaker 3: I say this, I say it is a democracy that

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Speaker 3: is still building itself, that still remembers the suppression that

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Speaker 3: was in a sense much higher than the suppression in

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Speaker 3: the Eastern Bloc. So bottom line, it was a fertile

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Speaker 3: land for everything, including this information campaign, including all sorts

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Speaker 3: of social engineering, if you will. So even if we

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Speaker 3: had a mild suppression code and code, and we had

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Speaker 3: the this idea that mainly in the main cities you

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Speaker 3: are very much surveilled in what you're doing and you

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Speaker 3: should not do this and this and that, then in

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Speaker 3: the rural side, in the non urban side, it was

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Speaker 3: a totally different way of living. And this clash between

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Speaker 3: the urban and the non urban. Uh, the idea that

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Speaker 3: some could still impose on the people's will while we

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Speaker 3: are still building our democrats and democratic rights and all

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Speaker 3: that and democratic institutions has created an environment that we

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Speaker 3: have to deal with even today.

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Speaker 2: Were you aware of how difficult life got in this

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Speaker 2: in this country, in New.

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Speaker 3: Zealand, to tell you the thirst, No.

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Speaker 2: No, we experienced totalitarianism and it's not an exaggeration. It

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Speaker 2: mightn't have been the worst kind of totalitarianism, but it

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Speaker 2: was a good step into it, and no one will

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Speaker 2: deny that. Now, same with Australia and the state of Victoria.

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Speaker 2: There was a race between the government in Victoria and

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Speaker 2: the government New Zealand to see who could be the biggest,

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Speaker 2: the biggest tyrant. But for another day, that would make

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Speaker 2: an interesting detail. In fact, I might even send you

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Speaker 2: something to show you what it was like. But it was.

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Speaker 2: It's recognized as being as bad as I've got anywhere

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Speaker 2: in the world. Amazingly, I hope I just live in

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Speaker 2: hope that the population of New Zealand has learned a

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Speaker 2: lesson from it. Now, if we turn our attention to

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Speaker 2: the election that you've just had, we don't have to

356
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Speaker 2: spend too long on it. But it was a mess,

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Speaker 2: was it not.

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Speaker 3: I'd say it was one of the most interesting cases

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Speaker 3: in recent elections because in a way we had all

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Speaker 3: the problems that the pandemic brought forward, basically between the

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Speaker 3: urban and the non urban. It was a case of

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Speaker 3: international interference. And I am not saying only Russian because

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Speaker 3: it's an only Russian interference. Again, all major powers are

364
00:27:36,773 --> 00:27:39,813
Speaker 3: taking their share when they see a fertial ground to

365
00:27:41,053 --> 00:27:46,053
Speaker 3: promote and influence the public, and that was the case

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Speaker 3: in our election season, and it was also a pointing

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Speaker 3: case on how institutions are failing to provide trust to

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Speaker 3: the basic trust for the population, because the result actually

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Speaker 3: pointed out that there was the population basically challenging the mainstream,

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Speaker 3: but at the same time challenging the whole system, so

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Speaker 3: saying that we no longer trust the system that was

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Speaker 3: built starting nineteen nineties and we want something different. We

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Speaker 3: don't really care how that different looks like. And while

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Speaker 3: we are still very much trustful into the Western world

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Speaker 3: which means NATO, US EU, we want to challenge how

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Speaker 3: things are done internally, and that I believe is actually

377
00:28:49,093 --> 00:28:56,413
Speaker 3: one major result of the last five plus years in Romania,

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Speaker 3: with the pandemic included. I mean, that's that's how I

379
00:29:03,293 --> 00:29:06,613
Speaker 3: read it right now, and I believe that in the

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00:29:06,693 --> 00:29:11,693
Speaker 3: next two years, if nothing will be done with reference

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00:29:11,773 --> 00:29:19,093
Speaker 3: to restruct showing change and so on that the population

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00:29:19,253 --> 00:29:23,773
Speaker 3: has voted for, then we might have a case where

383
00:29:23,813 --> 00:29:30,213
Speaker 3: the so called sovereignist populist parties are getting full control

384
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Speaker 3: in parliament. Because we have parliamentarian elections in almost three

385
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Speaker 3: years coming up, So we're getting into the campaign.

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Speaker 2: Give me a short profile of Nikosa dam who is

387
00:29:43,933 --> 00:29:44,773
Speaker 2: the new president.

388
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Speaker 3: So the new president is an independent. It's coming from

389
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Speaker 3: the independent branch of politics and so called pro European

390
00:29:56,493 --> 00:30:02,533
Speaker 3: populist branch. And many here would challenge me by saying populist,

391
00:30:03,573 --> 00:30:10,093
Speaker 3: but bottom line, it is the Union for Romania, which

392
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Speaker 3: is his brainchild, that has been the first serious populist

393
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Speaker 3: party in Romania and has campaigned against the mainstream parties

394
00:30:22,173 --> 00:30:26,853
Speaker 3: here basically saying that the system is not working, the

395
00:30:26,933 --> 00:30:31,533
Speaker 3: system is corrupt, we need to have something different, without

396
00:30:31,613 --> 00:30:36,933
Speaker 3: necessarily naming what that's something different would look like. So

397
00:30:37,173 --> 00:30:41,813
Speaker 3: he was not a member and did not stay on

398
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Speaker 3: as a member of the party, and he basically went

399
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Speaker 3: into the election season as an independent because his former

400
00:30:54,893 --> 00:31:01,613
Speaker 3: party had its own candidate and therefore got in and

401
00:31:01,653 --> 00:31:07,173
Speaker 3: got elected on this populist platform of I as a

402
00:31:07,213 --> 00:31:14,133
Speaker 3: person as an independent, want to really uh support the change,

403
00:31:14,413 --> 00:31:18,533
Speaker 3: want to really come forward with the change, and I

404
00:31:18,613 --> 00:31:22,773
Speaker 3: am a pro European. This was his main feature.

405
00:31:23,133 --> 00:31:28,373
Speaker 2: If you will, sorry you signed your pro European or he.

406
00:31:28,213 --> 00:31:33,933
Speaker 3: Was, he was pro European, So he is pro European

407
00:31:33,973 --> 00:31:40,813
Speaker 3: that's that's his main campaign promise, which means basically, I

408
00:31:40,853 --> 00:31:46,733
Speaker 3: am a supporter of the EU. I have been educated

409
00:31:47,213 --> 00:31:51,453
Speaker 3: in the EU style. I have been educated in France.

410
00:31:51,973 --> 00:31:57,533
Speaker 3: So he's a former no National International Olympic in mathematics.

411
00:31:58,413 --> 00:32:04,213
Speaker 3: I studied in Paris for his PhD. So his profile

412
00:32:04,373 --> 00:32:09,213
Speaker 3: is that of an intellectual that is coming from the

413
00:32:09,813 --> 00:32:15,413
Speaker 3: European class of intellectuals, but at the same time is

414
00:32:15,613 --> 00:32:21,813
Speaker 3: challenging how things are being done in Romanian politics and

415
00:32:21,213 --> 00:32:26,013
Speaker 3: has been doing that for the last ten plus years

416
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Speaker 3: as a former mayor of Bucharest now and as the

417
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Speaker 3: founder of this pro European populist party that I've talked about.

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Speaker 2: So back on May eleven, you published fault Lines in

419
00:32:41,053 --> 00:32:47,093
Speaker 2: the East, Romania's political transformation and Europe's future and analysis.

420
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Speaker 2: Here's a quote from it. The outcome will influence not

421
00:32:50,453 --> 00:32:54,333
Speaker 2: only Romania's governance and regional stability, but also the EU's

422
00:32:54,453 --> 00:33:00,853
Speaker 2: Eastern cohesion, particularly in Moldova and Poland. As nationalist populist

423
00:33:01,013 --> 00:33:05,213
Speaker 2: rhetoric gains traction across Europe during a period of geopolitical

424
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Speaker 2: uncertainty and democratic fragility. That sounds very insecure.

425
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Speaker 3: Well, it is insecure. Because not only because this is

426
00:33:17,293 --> 00:33:21,413
Speaker 3: fertile ground for this information and whatnot, but this is

427
00:33:21,453 --> 00:33:27,253
Speaker 3: also fertile ground for political instability. The economics are not

428
00:33:27,493 --> 00:33:33,533
Speaker 3: very stable, obviously, and this is partly an effect of

429
00:33:33,573 --> 00:33:37,093
Speaker 3: the pandemic, but also partly an aspect of the fact

430
00:33:37,093 --> 00:33:42,893
Speaker 3: that these countries have been the most emerging economies of Europe.

431
00:33:42,933 --> 00:33:47,693
Speaker 3: So in a sense they needed the stability of Western

432
00:33:47,773 --> 00:33:52,333
Speaker 3: Europe to thrive, but did not have that during the

433
00:33:52,373 --> 00:33:56,573
Speaker 3: last ten years. So there is this idea of what

434
00:33:56,613 --> 00:34:01,013
Speaker 3: do we do next, considering all these trade wars, all

435
00:34:01,053 --> 00:34:06,453
Speaker 3: these elements of instability that are threatening the life of

436
00:34:06,533 --> 00:34:11,133
Speaker 3: what we observe to be our foundation of growth and

437
00:34:11,213 --> 00:34:15,333
Speaker 3: even our model for development, which is the West in

438
00:34:15,373 --> 00:34:20,373
Speaker 3: its entirety. And at the same time we are on

439
00:34:20,413 --> 00:34:25,493
Speaker 3: the borderline, and therefore from the Baltic Sea to Romania

440
00:34:26,933 --> 00:34:32,173
Speaker 3: you have societies that are coming to accept their role

441
00:34:32,333 --> 00:34:38,413
Speaker 3: on the borderline, which also means military engagement or potential

442
00:34:38,493 --> 00:34:44,373
Speaker 3: military engagement with Russia. That's the common threat. And at

443
00:34:44,373 --> 00:34:49,653
Speaker 3: the same time they do not necessarily have an anchor anymore.

444
00:34:49,653 --> 00:34:53,053
Speaker 3: And I'm not only referring to the US as an anchor,

445
00:34:53,773 --> 00:34:56,893
Speaker 3: but I'm also referring to the European Union as an

446
00:34:56,893 --> 00:35:03,453
Speaker 3: anchor in their case, where they're observing the EU having

447
00:35:04,373 --> 00:35:09,053
Speaker 3: to deal with its own problems, with the Eurozone in particular,

448
00:35:09,173 --> 00:35:13,413
Speaker 3: having to deal with its own problems, and states that

449
00:35:13,573 --> 00:35:18,933
Speaker 3: are member states of the EU no longer longer being,

450
00:35:19,813 --> 00:35:26,613
Speaker 3: at least in their declarations, not even being united, not

451
00:35:27,253 --> 00:35:33,453
Speaker 3: exerting themselves as a united front anymore, but getting more nationalistic,

452
00:35:34,213 --> 00:35:38,493
Speaker 3: getting more focused on their own internal problems, which is natural.

453
00:35:38,893 --> 00:35:44,333
Speaker 3: But this gets to be discussed in the Eastern European

454
00:35:44,853 --> 00:35:49,293
Speaker 3: countries as so what do we do next? We fear Russia.

455
00:35:49,933 --> 00:35:53,893
Speaker 3: We do not know exactly what future lies for us

456
00:35:54,213 --> 00:35:59,773
Speaker 3: in the European Union, and therefore there is some hope

457
00:36:00,293 --> 00:36:05,013
Speaker 3: that the European Union could act somehow, but at the

458
00:36:05,093 --> 00:36:08,893
Speaker 3: same time, we don't know if that's the post stability.

459
00:36:09,613 --> 00:36:14,213
Speaker 3: So that's where the insecurity comes from. And we've seen

460
00:36:14,293 --> 00:36:21,253
Speaker 3: this during the last elections in Poland, where the conservative

461
00:36:21,333 --> 00:36:27,173
Speaker 3: candidate won basically saying well, we need a balance. The

462
00:36:27,213 --> 00:36:30,093
Speaker 3: population send the message of we need a balance. We

463
00:36:30,173 --> 00:36:35,453
Speaker 3: need to make sure that we sustain our traditions, that

464
00:36:35,533 --> 00:36:41,613
Speaker 3: we keep our boundaries with regards to everything that the

465
00:36:41,693 --> 00:36:46,413
Speaker 3: EU pushes us to do and in a sense, because

466
00:36:46,413 --> 00:36:49,653
Speaker 3: we are also talking about internal politics in the case

467
00:36:49,693 --> 00:36:54,893
Speaker 3: of Poland, keep a balance between the pro German, pro

468
00:36:54,933 --> 00:36:58,133
Speaker 3: European camp, which is led by the current Prime Minister

469
00:36:58,853 --> 00:37:05,373
Speaker 3: and his party, and a balance to the pro American camp,

470
00:37:05,653 --> 00:37:09,653
Speaker 3: which is led by Navrowski, the current president. And now

471
00:37:09,653 --> 00:37:12,813
Speaker 3: there is also an issue of Trumpism, and I don't

472
00:37:13,533 --> 00:37:16,453
Speaker 3: don't I don't know if we want to get into

473
00:37:16,493 --> 00:37:21,013
Speaker 3: this because obviously the American influence here is also getting

474
00:37:21,613 --> 00:37:24,773
Speaker 3: in through the new kind of politics and the new

475
00:37:24,853 --> 00:37:30,413
Speaker 3: kind of campaigning that the US has been dealing with,

476
00:37:31,213 --> 00:37:35,173
Speaker 3: and Trump has been pushing as a new style of politics,

477
00:37:35,173 --> 00:37:38,013
Speaker 3: as a new style of diplomacy, and this all is

478
00:37:39,013 --> 00:37:41,333
Speaker 3: kind of influencing the debate.

479
00:37:42,053 --> 00:37:44,773
Speaker 2: So the battle for Poland is not over.

480
00:37:46,453 --> 00:37:55,253
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I believe that Poland is still

481
00:37:55,773 --> 00:38:00,373
Speaker 3: trying to discover itself. There are many that are making

482
00:38:00,413 --> 00:38:05,413
Speaker 3: analogies to the past and are pointing out the historical

483
00:38:05,533 --> 00:38:11,053
Speaker 3: cycles for Poland, and some are even pointing to the

484
00:38:11,093 --> 00:38:15,453
Speaker 3: way Poland looked like in the thirties, which is, you know,

485
00:38:15,533 --> 00:38:23,333
Speaker 3: the same is said about Romania. However, I don't think well,

486
00:38:23,453 --> 00:38:27,493
Speaker 3: history repeats itself, obviously, but the shape of that repetition

487
00:38:27,653 --> 00:38:32,293
Speaker 3: is different. So I believe that right now we're living

488
00:38:32,333 --> 00:38:37,493
Speaker 3: in a more complex world and the battle, the so

489
00:38:37,653 --> 00:38:42,013
Speaker 3: called battle between East and West, is also a battle

490
00:38:42,293 --> 00:38:48,853
Speaker 3: about what kind of Poland does the population really want

491
00:38:48,893 --> 00:38:50,693
Speaker 3: to have? What?

492
00:38:50,973 --> 00:38:54,613
Speaker 2: And if i'm if I might, how do you how

493
00:38:54,653 --> 00:38:55,853
Speaker 2: do you pronounce his name?

494
00:38:55,933 --> 00:39:05,253
Speaker 3: No, Rocky Navarovskiovsky, Yeah, Navarrovsky, it's I don't know. The

495
00:39:05,493 --> 00:39:10,533
Speaker 3: W comes as a V from what I've learned from

496
00:39:10,613 --> 00:39:11,493
Speaker 3: the Polish TV.

497
00:39:11,653 --> 00:39:17,293
Speaker 2: Anyway, Dorovsky? All right? Since is what win? And I'm

498
00:39:17,333 --> 00:39:21,453
Speaker 2: quoting not from you but from Michael Krans if that

499
00:39:21,533 --> 00:39:24,733
Speaker 2: means anything. Commentators of all stripes have been eager to

500
00:39:24,773 --> 00:39:27,773
Speaker 2: pigeonhole the election as a win for Russia or as

501
00:39:27,853 --> 00:39:31,453
Speaker 2: the nail in the coffin of Poland's warm relationship with Ukraine.

502
00:39:32,053 --> 00:39:34,933
Speaker 2: In truth, it's none of those things. Politics here, certain

503
00:39:35,253 --> 00:39:38,493
Speaker 2: is never so simple. The raise a thin margin of

504
00:39:38,533 --> 00:39:42,453
Speaker 2: Sunday's election, and indeed, the divided, hamstrung government that has

505
00:39:42,493 --> 00:39:45,773
Speaker 2: existed here for the last thirteen months is emblematic of

506
00:39:45,813 --> 00:39:48,933
Speaker 2: a deeper fight about the nature of Polish identity in

507
00:39:48,973 --> 00:39:53,293
Speaker 2: the twenty first century, and there's a quote, if I might,

508
00:39:53,373 --> 00:39:57,533
Speaker 2: because I like it from somebody who back in the

509
00:39:57,573 --> 00:40:00,613
Speaker 2: twenties made the comment that most beloved state of the

510
00:40:00,653 --> 00:40:03,933
Speaker 2: Polish people is in decision, which seems to fit what

511
00:40:03,973 --> 00:40:04,533
Speaker 2: you were saying.

512
00:40:05,493 --> 00:40:10,533
Speaker 3: M Yeah, indeed, And I think the question mark is

513
00:40:10,573 --> 00:40:17,653
Speaker 3: not about his win but about the extreme right and

514
00:40:17,733 --> 00:40:23,293
Speaker 3: I really mean the extreme right Confederazia in Poland and

515
00:40:23,333 --> 00:40:28,453
Speaker 3: how that goes, because right now the Conservative Party has

516
00:40:28,533 --> 00:40:31,893
Speaker 3: won this vote, but it is the first time that

517
00:40:32,093 --> 00:40:37,733
Speaker 3: the Conservatives and Nabrovski has done an understanding on some

518
00:40:38,093 --> 00:40:42,373
Speaker 3: of the major points regarding what needs to be kept

519
00:40:42,853 --> 00:40:50,933
Speaker 3: for the constitutional justice institutions and the courts basically in Poland,

520
00:40:51,173 --> 00:40:56,853
Speaker 3: and some constitutional rights and you know, the abortion and

521
00:40:56,933 --> 00:41:00,973
Speaker 3: all that stuff. But those are bullet points coming from

522
00:41:01,013 --> 00:41:06,093
Speaker 3: the so called Tarun Declaration that he signed together with

523
00:41:06,213 --> 00:41:11,533
Speaker 3: the candidate of Conford. Dederatia and Confederatia is the very

524
00:41:11,573 --> 00:41:17,533
Speaker 3: extreme right wing party which has indeed the flavor of

525
00:41:17,653 --> 00:41:26,253
Speaker 3: the very nationalistic, sometimes very pro Russian in declaration. And

526
00:41:26,693 --> 00:41:30,133
Speaker 3: one thing, and this is an important footnote that I'd

527
00:41:30,173 --> 00:41:35,853
Speaker 3: like to insert here in Poland and in Romania both

528
00:41:36,173 --> 00:41:41,173
Speaker 3: and in Eastern European states. There are no such thing

529
00:41:41,773 --> 00:41:47,213
Speaker 3: of pro Russian candidates because the population is anti Russian,

530
00:41:47,853 --> 00:41:51,813
Speaker 3: so you cannot be a full pro Russian candidate. The

531
00:41:51,933 --> 00:41:58,693
Speaker 3: narratives that you take may be influenced by Russia, and

532
00:41:58,733 --> 00:42:03,933
Speaker 3: the politicians are sometimes very much tied to Russia through

533
00:42:04,013 --> 00:42:09,093
Speaker 3: previous engagements because these have been former satellite and therefore

534
00:42:09,133 --> 00:42:13,093
Speaker 3: they still have ways to get to the politicians and

535
00:42:13,573 --> 00:42:18,533
Speaker 3: influence them through money or through other engagements. So they

536
00:42:18,653 --> 00:42:25,093
Speaker 3: don't look straightforward to the so called pro Russian electorate

537
00:42:25,173 --> 00:42:27,213
Speaker 3: because there is no such thing. No one would be

538
00:42:27,253 --> 00:42:31,813
Speaker 3: elected here if they say openly I'm pro Russian, but

539
00:42:32,493 --> 00:42:35,813
Speaker 3: they would be elected if they would go with anti

540
00:42:35,933 --> 00:42:41,653
Speaker 3: Ukrainian narratives or anti European Union narratives, or anti American

541
00:42:41,733 --> 00:42:45,933
Speaker 3: narratives at times, or anti NATO narratives, which is more

542
00:42:47,813 --> 00:42:53,093
Speaker 3: complex in a way, but better for Russia to get

543
00:42:53,853 --> 00:42:58,293
Speaker 3: their individuals. They are political players in so that's that's

544
00:42:58,333 --> 00:43:02,093
Speaker 3: one important footnote. And for Confederatia to get back to

545
00:43:02,133 --> 00:43:06,853
Speaker 3: the Polish election, this is exactly it. I mean. The

546
00:43:06,973 --> 00:43:11,893
Speaker 3: question is how will the Conservatives, which are traditionally a

547
00:43:11,933 --> 00:43:17,533
Speaker 3: pro American party in Poland and are not necessarily against EU,

548
00:43:17,613 --> 00:43:21,093
Speaker 3: but they want a more let's say, a better voice

549
00:43:21,173 --> 00:43:26,333
Speaker 3: for Poland within the EU. How will they manage a

550
00:43:26,413 --> 00:43:32,413
Speaker 3: partnership that they've enforced by signing the Storun Declaration with

551
00:43:32,693 --> 00:43:37,053
Speaker 3: a very extreme right party which is against the EU

552
00:43:37,173 --> 00:43:40,613
Speaker 3: and has narratives that go against the American interest as well.

553
00:43:41,493 --> 00:43:43,773
Speaker 3: So that's that's the question for the coming years.

554
00:43:43,813 --> 00:43:47,893
Speaker 2: I think you mentioned a month ago you mentioned foreign policy.

555
00:43:48,333 --> 00:43:52,533
Speaker 2: What is the what is the influence of Romanian foreign

556
00:43:52,613 --> 00:43:54,813
Speaker 2: policy in Europe?

557
00:43:55,613 --> 00:44:02,693
Speaker 3: Well, that's a very good question. Romania has managed to

558
00:44:03,093 --> 00:44:07,333
Speaker 3: get countries like France and Germany to acknowledge the Black

559
00:44:07,413 --> 00:44:12,733
Speaker 3: Sea as an important geopolitical note, but only recently so.

560
00:44:12,893 --> 00:44:18,493
Speaker 3: Romanian foreign policy has been, in a sense adaptive to

561
00:44:18,813 --> 00:44:24,333
Speaker 3: the larger players. It has worked together with Poland to

562
00:44:24,533 --> 00:44:30,653
Speaker 3: acknowledge the Eastern European risks for the European Union, and

563
00:44:30,853 --> 00:44:35,693
Speaker 3: it has worked together with Poland even in NATO as

564
00:44:36,053 --> 00:44:41,133
Speaker 3: the strategic partners that want to get the US closer

565
00:44:41,213 --> 00:44:45,253
Speaker 3: to the Eastern border, but has not been very vocal.

566
00:44:45,973 --> 00:44:50,213
Speaker 3: Romania has started to be vocal only recently, and by

567
00:44:50,293 --> 00:44:54,453
Speaker 3: recently I mean during the last one year one year

568
00:44:54,493 --> 00:45:00,853
Speaker 3: and a half. Very recent also because it was fearful

569
00:45:00,893 --> 00:45:05,173
Speaker 3: of Russia, and Romania I think is likely the most

570
00:45:05,173 --> 00:45:09,853
Speaker 3: fearful country of Russia considered Russia is on its border,

571
00:45:11,053 --> 00:45:15,973
Speaker 3: and it sees Russia is still a mighty threat to

572
00:45:16,093 --> 00:45:22,813
Speaker 3: its security. And considering this, the foreign policy push was

573
00:45:23,493 --> 00:45:28,693
Speaker 3: mainly to get allies from the European Union, from NATO,

574
00:45:29,373 --> 00:45:35,733
Speaker 3: to get the US together with others to push forward

575
00:45:36,053 --> 00:45:40,693
Speaker 3: elements that would secure its borders, but never alone. So

576
00:45:40,813 --> 00:45:46,453
Speaker 3: Romania has not ever been like Poland, for instance, I

577
00:45:46,533 --> 00:45:49,893
Speaker 3: want this and I will fight for it with regards

578
00:45:49,893 --> 00:45:54,573
Speaker 3: to its foreign policy, because it thought always that that

579
00:45:54,653 --> 00:45:58,973
Speaker 3: kind of attitude would have attached to it a risk

580
00:45:59,093 --> 00:46:02,573
Speaker 3: that it cannot bear, it cannot solve. That's a more

581
00:46:02,933 --> 00:46:08,853
Speaker 3: let's say shy adaptive and a posture that is likely

582
00:46:09,533 --> 00:46:14,973
Speaker 3: due to the geographical position. I mean, it regards multiple fronts.

583
00:46:15,053 --> 00:46:17,733
Speaker 3: It is the Black Sea is the most important in

584
00:46:17,813 --> 00:46:21,733
Speaker 3: terms of Russian threat, but at the same time the

585
00:46:21,773 --> 00:46:28,133
Speaker 3: Western Balkans, and it sees that region only as a

586
00:46:28,213 --> 00:46:33,893
Speaker 3: challenging region and something that you need to be aware of.

587
00:46:34,733 --> 00:46:36,933
Speaker 3: And that's why the adaptive stands.

588
00:46:36,973 --> 00:46:41,573
Speaker 2: Okay, now, the importance of the Black Sea, which country

589
00:46:42,093 --> 00:46:45,173
Speaker 2: would you say has the I mean, nobody owns it,

590
00:46:45,253 --> 00:46:48,173
Speaker 2: but which country has the right to the greater claim

591
00:46:48,253 --> 00:46:48,693
Speaker 2: do you think?

592
00:46:49,453 --> 00:46:54,853
Speaker 3: Well, I would say that in history we had the

593
00:46:54,893 --> 00:46:59,533
Speaker 3: greater claims coming from Russia or Turkey through you know,

594
00:46:59,773 --> 00:47:05,013
Speaker 3: Ottoman Empire or the Russian taurist To empires and so on.

595
00:47:06,093 --> 00:47:10,613
Speaker 3: Right now we have the risk of the country of

596
00:47:10,733 --> 00:47:16,573
Speaker 3: the Sea becoming split, I think that's the best word

597
00:47:16,613 --> 00:47:21,533
Speaker 3: to use, split between Russia and Turkey in terms of

598
00:47:22,493 --> 00:47:26,853
Speaker 3: economic zones, but also in terms of influence, and the

599
00:47:26,933 --> 00:47:33,253
Speaker 3: push of Romania is basically to maintain Turkey and Bulgaria,

600
00:47:33,333 --> 00:47:39,933
Speaker 3: but especially Turkey involved in the security of the Black Sea,

601
00:47:40,133 --> 00:47:47,013
Speaker 3: to make certain that there is always a counterbalance to

602
00:47:47,133 --> 00:47:51,453
Speaker 3: the Russian influence and that Turkey and Russia did not

603
00:47:51,653 --> 00:47:55,813
Speaker 3: get to an understanding of sorts, which is not impossible

604
00:47:55,973 --> 00:48:01,373
Speaker 3: historically speaking now also with regards to the Black Sea,

605
00:48:01,453 --> 00:48:06,653
Speaker 3: to make things more complicated. When Crimea became independent, we

606
00:48:07,333 --> 00:48:11,533
Speaker 3: in Romania where very much happy, even if there were

607
00:48:11,573 --> 00:48:15,613
Speaker 3: conflicts around islands and whatnot, but we were very much

608
00:48:15,653 --> 00:48:21,613
Speaker 3: happy because Russia's posture was pushed away. So in a sense,

609
00:48:21,653 --> 00:48:26,293
Speaker 3: there was this new state that was taking a chunk

610
00:48:26,453 --> 00:48:30,093
Speaker 3: of the Russian of the former USSR part of the

611
00:48:30,133 --> 00:48:33,413
Speaker 3: Black Sea, because the Black Sea is a closed sea

612
00:48:33,573 --> 00:48:38,173
Speaker 3: and therefore without having international waters, you always have to

613
00:48:38,173 --> 00:48:43,013
Speaker 3: deal with neighbors, which is why for Romania wasn't happy

614
00:48:43,413 --> 00:48:46,893
Speaker 3: the moment that Ukraine took part of the USSR, the

615
00:48:46,933 --> 00:48:50,373
Speaker 3: former USSR part. That was a happy time considering we

616
00:48:50,373 --> 00:48:53,533
Speaker 3: were no longer bordering the USSR, but we were bordering

617
00:48:54,293 --> 00:49:01,093
Speaker 3: Ukraine now. With Crimea being taken over since twenty fourteen,

618
00:49:01,373 --> 00:49:04,933
Speaker 3: Romania got to be on the border with Russia again,

619
00:49:05,093 --> 00:49:10,573
Speaker 3: which is you know, the main question is whether Russia

620
00:49:10,653 --> 00:49:14,733
Speaker 3: will come closer and what could Russia do from the

621
00:49:14,813 --> 00:49:21,933
Speaker 3: facto position that it holds now that Crimea is basically

622
00:49:22,173 --> 00:49:27,573
Speaker 3: covering a big part of more than half of what

623
00:49:27,813 --> 00:49:32,973
Speaker 3: Ukraine held previously. So that's where we stand right now,

624
00:49:33,293 --> 00:49:36,653
Speaker 3: and that's why Romania is also very much supportive of

625
00:49:36,813 --> 00:49:41,693
Speaker 3: Ukraine getting back its share of the Black Sea, because

626
00:49:41,693 --> 00:49:45,893
Speaker 3: that basically means that we are going to be bordering

627
00:49:46,013 --> 00:49:48,173
Speaker 3: Ukraine again and not Russia.

628
00:49:48,253 --> 00:49:54,653
Speaker 2: So let's target something very local as far as the

629
00:49:54,733 --> 00:49:59,253
Speaker 2: area is concerned, the Russians. The Russians took a place

630
00:49:59,293 --> 00:50:02,693
Speaker 2: called Snake Island back in February twenty two when they do.

631
00:50:02,933 --> 00:50:04,253
Speaker 2: I think it was on the first day that they

632
00:50:05,013 --> 00:50:09,013
Speaker 2: went berserk, but more recently it has fallen back into

633
00:50:09,413 --> 00:50:13,453
Speaker 2: Ukraine's hands. Is that significant? By I mean we're talking

634
00:50:13,453 --> 00:50:17,133
Speaker 2: about a forty six acre rocky outcrop here. Does that

635
00:50:17,173 --> 00:50:18,733
Speaker 2: have any significance? Do you think?

636
00:50:20,133 --> 00:50:23,173
Speaker 3: Oh? Well, But certainly for the region and certainly for

637
00:50:23,333 --> 00:50:30,173
Speaker 3: Romania that that is important because the Snake Island basically

638
00:50:30,213 --> 00:50:34,133
Speaker 3: makes it taking Russia. Taking the Snake Island basically made

639
00:50:34,173 --> 00:50:40,373
Speaker 3: impossible for Ukraine to continue trading through the Black Sea.

640
00:50:41,333 --> 00:50:45,053
Speaker 3: So if you're looking at the map, the Snake Island

641
00:50:45,133 --> 00:50:49,853
Speaker 3: is very very close to Romani, I'm shure, and it

642
00:50:50,253 --> 00:50:55,533
Speaker 3: basically if you cross from the Snake Island to Crimea,

643
00:50:55,613 --> 00:50:58,893
Speaker 3: if you just draw a line on the map, you

644
00:50:58,973 --> 00:51:05,373
Speaker 3: are basically having the coast of Ukraine completely off the

645
00:51:05,493 --> 00:51:10,933
Speaker 3: charts of the Black Sea, and that territory being taken

646
00:51:11,613 --> 00:51:17,333
Speaker 3: meant that you basically have no way you as Ukraine,

647
00:51:17,413 --> 00:51:22,893
Speaker 3: have no way to protect your coastline. That's why Ukraine

648
00:51:23,293 --> 00:51:29,173
Speaker 3: mined the sea, and that's why we have both Ukraine

649
00:51:29,253 --> 00:51:34,173
Speaker 3: Hints and Russians dealing with mining operations during those days.

650
00:51:34,213 --> 00:51:39,733
Speaker 3: Because the worst fere for Ukraine was that the Russians

651
00:51:39,773 --> 00:51:43,293
Speaker 3: would get on the shore and by taking the coastline

652
00:51:43,773 --> 00:51:48,093
Speaker 3: would basically take the economic lifeline of Ukraine, considering trade

653
00:51:48,173 --> 00:51:51,773
Speaker 3: was being done mostly through the Black Sea, and by

654
00:51:51,933 --> 00:51:58,293
Speaker 3: keeping the Snake Island would have meant that Romania had

655
00:51:58,653 --> 00:52:04,053
Speaker 3: problems helping Ukraine with trade or anything, because that would

656
00:52:04,613 --> 00:52:09,933
Speaker 3: would have meant that Russia is really clear to the

657
00:52:09,933 --> 00:52:15,333
Speaker 3: so called Danube Mouth, which is the way out for

658
00:52:15,653 --> 00:52:20,373
Speaker 3: most of Ukrainian trade today. So in other words, that

659
00:52:20,373 --> 00:52:25,733
Speaker 3: that was a blocking posture, and that was strategically a

660
00:52:25,733 --> 00:52:31,213
Speaker 3: way for Russia to make sure that by blocking economic

661
00:52:31,253 --> 00:52:39,253
Speaker 3: operations of Ukraine will it would eventually take over Kiev,

662
00:52:40,333 --> 00:52:45,213
Speaker 3: even if militarily that would have been impossible. In a sense,

663
00:52:46,013 --> 00:52:49,493
Speaker 3: the economic lifeline being cut would have meant that Kiev

664
00:52:50,253 --> 00:52:55,333
Speaker 3: could eventually fall off. Now taking over the Snake Island

665
00:52:55,373 --> 00:52:59,613
Speaker 3: basically reversed that stance. So that's why it was very

666
00:52:59,613 --> 00:53:03,133
Speaker 3: important that Ukraine managed to take back the Snake Island

667
00:53:03,693 --> 00:53:04,693
Speaker 3: several months after.

668
00:53:04,973 --> 00:53:08,293
Speaker 2: Does that mean it'll become a target for Putin again?

669
00:53:09,013 --> 00:53:14,933
Speaker 3: I don't think so, and it is not the island

670
00:53:15,733 --> 00:53:20,213
Speaker 3: that is now determined target and the reason is because

671
00:53:20,213 --> 00:53:23,733
Speaker 3: there there is no naval posture anymore in the Black

672
00:53:23,773 --> 00:53:29,373
Speaker 3: Sea by the Russians, so the Ukrainians managed to cut

673
00:53:29,813 --> 00:53:36,253
Speaker 3: that to almost zero. And at this point I think

674
00:53:36,413 --> 00:53:41,413
Speaker 3: Pudtin is looking to the ports of Odessa and to

675
00:53:42,493 --> 00:53:47,773
Speaker 3: generally to the Ukrainian coastline through land operations and no

676
00:53:47,853 --> 00:53:52,613
Speaker 3: longer through sea operations because it has no Russia has

677
00:53:52,613 --> 00:53:56,213
Speaker 3: no capabilities to employ to take back the Snake Island,

678
00:53:56,573 --> 00:54:00,013
Speaker 3: so what it wants is to basically take the coast,

679
00:54:00,493 --> 00:54:04,573
Speaker 3: take the southwestern coast of Ukraine and managed to come

680
00:54:04,613 --> 00:54:11,893
Speaker 3: back to a posture where it can effectively control all

681
00:54:11,973 --> 00:54:17,013
Speaker 3: the trade routes in the Black Sea that Ukraine has.

682
00:54:17,213 --> 00:54:19,373
Speaker 2: Before we leave the Black Sea, I have a question

683
00:54:19,533 --> 00:54:22,373
Speaker 2: for you. You have been to Odessa.

684
00:54:23,213 --> 00:54:25,053
Speaker 3: I have, but not during wartime.

685
00:54:25,253 --> 00:54:28,773
Speaker 2: No no, no, no no. I tell you why I ask.

686
00:54:29,933 --> 00:54:34,213
Speaker 2: There was a book that came out on Odessa in

687
00:54:34,253 --> 00:54:38,013
Speaker 2: twenty eleven, written by a fellow called Charles King, and

688
00:54:38,093 --> 00:54:40,173
Speaker 2: on my radio program I made mentioned to it quite

689
00:54:40,213 --> 00:54:42,173
Speaker 2: a bit at the time because I was fascinated by

690
00:54:42,173 --> 00:54:45,893
Speaker 2: Odessa and I wanted to get there at some stage

691
00:54:46,013 --> 00:54:49,693
Speaker 2: and get to know it. So in twenty fifteen, which

692
00:54:49,733 --> 00:54:52,453
Speaker 2: is ten years ago, we were on a cruise. A

693
00:54:52,493 --> 00:54:54,893
Speaker 2: whole bunch of us from New Zealand were on a

694
00:54:54,893 --> 00:54:59,453
Speaker 2: cruise and it was to do with the Anzac centenary

695
00:55:00,053 --> 00:55:02,573
Speaker 2: and it was announced that we would not be going

696
00:55:03,053 --> 00:55:07,773
Speaker 2: into the Black Sea because it was developing dangerous time.

697
00:55:08,453 --> 00:55:10,493
Speaker 2: I can't remember exactly what was going on, but it

698
00:55:10,573 --> 00:55:14,373
Speaker 2: was probably something along the lines that we've been discussing,

699
00:55:15,813 --> 00:55:18,693
Speaker 2: and so we didn't get to Odessa, and that was

700
00:55:18,773 --> 00:55:21,893
Speaker 2: the one place I wanted to go. And now I

701
00:55:21,933 --> 00:55:26,933
Speaker 2: believe it's not worth going to Why in your opinion,

702
00:55:27,053 --> 00:55:31,093
Speaker 2: having been there, was Odessa or is Odessa still hopefully

703
00:55:31,573 --> 00:55:33,093
Speaker 2: such a romantic place.

704
00:55:34,693 --> 00:55:41,213
Speaker 3: Well, because all travelers from north to southeast to west

705
00:55:41,933 --> 00:55:50,293
Speaker 3: have something to do with Odessa. There is almost Roman

706
00:55:50,493 --> 00:55:58,973
Speaker 3: architecture and Italian architecture dominating Goddessa. So this is a

707
00:55:59,053 --> 00:56:02,333
Speaker 3: sort of a hidden place where you would not expect

708
00:56:02,573 --> 00:56:06,973
Speaker 3: to see that kind of architecture, but you're still seeing it.

709
00:56:08,613 --> 00:56:12,973
Speaker 3: There is the domination, the domination, the cultural domination of

710
00:56:13,893 --> 00:56:21,133
Speaker 3: the Italians that have been the world's the the European

711
00:56:21,213 --> 00:56:28,413
Speaker 3: medieval merchants of the time, and that kind of made

712
00:56:28,453 --> 00:56:33,893
Speaker 3: of Odessa a very important strategic port on the Black Sea,

713
00:56:34,013 --> 00:56:39,933
Speaker 3: but also a very interesting cultural port. I don't remember

714
00:56:40,133 --> 00:56:45,413
Speaker 3: now the name of the poet, the Ukrainian poet that

715
00:56:47,333 --> 00:56:52,493
Speaker 3: got to being exiled in Odessa. But there is also

716
00:56:52,813 --> 00:57:00,333
Speaker 3: a fascinating history of how Russian and Ukrainian poets both

717
00:57:01,333 --> 00:57:05,733
Speaker 3: have held Odessa very dear because they were either exiled

718
00:57:06,293 --> 00:57:11,573
Speaker 3: or they were either fascinated by the place and managed

719
00:57:11,613 --> 00:57:15,173
Speaker 3: to stay there for a number of years. So there

720
00:57:15,213 --> 00:57:19,013
Speaker 3: is this romantic approach of Odessa the city of poetry.

721
00:57:19,253 --> 00:57:22,693
Speaker 2: Okay, so there is there is another reason that I've

722
00:57:22,733 --> 00:57:27,093
Speaker 2: just recalled that Edessa is worthy of a little more discussion.

723
00:57:27,733 --> 00:57:34,973
Speaker 2: It was a fairly healthy Jewish city, I believe true,

724
00:57:34,653 --> 00:57:38,333
Speaker 2: and there are some people in New Zealand who have

725
00:57:38,453 --> 00:57:42,653
Speaker 2: his you know, the history comes from Odessa. And I

726
00:57:42,693 --> 00:57:47,013
Speaker 2: just wondered what the attitude to Jews now is. And

727
00:57:47,053 --> 00:57:49,453
Speaker 2: the reason for this is she probably worked out is

728
00:57:49,453 --> 00:57:53,613
Speaker 2: because of what's going on in America and Australia. Not

729
00:57:53,733 --> 00:57:59,013
Speaker 2: so much here, but it's it's there and in other places.

730
00:57:59,093 --> 00:58:02,413
Speaker 2: With regard to the assault on Jewish.

731
00:58:02,173 --> 00:58:06,893
Speaker 3: Folk, well, I will say that Odessa and much of

732
00:58:06,933 --> 00:58:12,693
Speaker 3: the Ukrainian cities Kiev two that had Jewish communities important

733
00:58:12,733 --> 00:58:17,493
Speaker 3: Jewish communities are not having them anymore because of the

734
00:58:17,533 --> 00:58:25,613
Speaker 3: Soviet Union that basically started right after the end of

735
00:58:25,653 --> 00:58:31,693
Speaker 3: the of the Second World War. But that aside, I

736
00:58:31,853 --> 00:58:36,693
Speaker 3: am noticing in places where we did not have any

737
00:58:36,773 --> 00:58:46,413
Speaker 3: kind of discussion before about Israel in Gaza, about the

738
00:58:46,453 --> 00:58:50,853
Speaker 3: Middle East in general, and about the rise of the

739
00:58:50,933 --> 00:58:57,133
Speaker 3: Jewish community as well. I am noticing elements that are

740
00:58:57,213 --> 00:59:00,093
Speaker 3: coming alive. What do I mean by that? In places

741
00:59:00,173 --> 00:59:04,173
Speaker 3: like the Czech Republic, where you would not see any

742
00:59:04,213 --> 00:59:09,773
Speaker 3: discussion about the Middle East, and that was probably the

743
00:59:09,813 --> 00:59:15,373
Speaker 3: country that's closest to Israel during the last thirty years,

744
00:59:15,373 --> 00:59:19,773
Speaker 3: if not more well thirty years, because that's basically after

745
00:59:19,813 --> 00:59:22,853
Speaker 3: the end of the Cold War. I have been there

746
00:59:22,933 --> 00:59:28,613
Speaker 3: recently and have witnessed a protest, a pro Palestine protest,

747
00:59:30,053 --> 00:59:35,173
Speaker 3: and a community that was very vocal against Israeli right,

748
00:59:35,373 --> 00:59:41,013
Speaker 3: and that usually means that there is something going on

749
00:59:42,253 --> 00:59:48,893
Speaker 3: with regards to the Jewish community being seen in another

750
00:59:49,053 --> 00:59:55,973
Speaker 3: kind of light. So these elements, these social protests and

751
00:59:56,733 --> 01:00:02,493
Speaker 3: discussions about the Middle East have been very very popular

752
01:00:03,053 --> 01:00:04,253
Speaker 3: in Western Europe.

753
01:00:04,733 --> 01:00:06,813
Speaker 2: What about in Romania?

754
01:00:06,533 --> 01:00:10,173
Speaker 3: In Eastern Europe you don't see that. And in Romania

755
01:00:10,253 --> 01:00:14,373
Speaker 3: last I think it was last week that I have

756
01:00:14,573 --> 01:00:20,933
Speaker 3: seen people on the streets with pro Palestine cards, and

757
01:00:21,933 --> 01:00:28,053
Speaker 3: right before the elections, even if it wasn't very clear

758
01:00:28,333 --> 01:00:35,133
Speaker 3: which side these protesters were supporting, I mean for the

759
01:00:35,693 --> 01:00:40,773
Speaker 3: Romanian elections. Now. Also in Romania, the Jewish community is

760
01:00:40,773 --> 01:00:43,493
Speaker 3: a sort of an expat community right now. They are

761
01:00:43,493 --> 01:00:51,133
Speaker 3: coming in for the sides, the former Jewish sides. Romania

762
01:00:51,213 --> 01:00:56,853
Speaker 3: has this history of having the Jews sent back to

763
01:00:56,933 --> 01:01:01,813
Speaker 3: their home country during the communist times. And if if

764
01:01:01,853 --> 01:01:07,053
Speaker 3: you read, because we were talking earlier about Robert Kaplan's

765
01:01:07,413 --> 01:01:13,973
Speaker 3: work that was a big chunk of his discovery in

766
01:01:14,013 --> 01:01:19,733
Speaker 3: the seventies, was referring to the way that the communist

767
01:01:19,773 --> 01:01:23,893
Speaker 3: regime of Romania at the time, which was kind of

768
01:01:23,933 --> 01:01:31,893
Speaker 3: a particular totalitarian regime, was trading almost the Jewish community

769
01:01:32,013 --> 01:01:38,773
Speaker 3: with Israel. So there is an ambiguous past which was

770
01:01:39,333 --> 01:01:46,613
Speaker 3: translated into good business and into a community that is

771
01:01:46,773 --> 01:01:51,693
Speaker 3: very welcomed because it does business with Romania. It supports

772
01:01:52,053 --> 01:01:58,093
Speaker 3: the entrepreneurial spirit. So there isn't much talk about the

773
01:01:58,173 --> 01:02:03,893
Speaker 3: Jewish community per se, but there are weird attempts. And

774
01:02:04,173 --> 01:02:08,133
Speaker 3: by weird attempts, I say these discussions about what happens

775
01:02:08,413 --> 01:02:12,413
Speaker 3: in the Middle East are likely going to lead to

776
01:02:12,533 --> 01:02:16,093
Speaker 3: some discussion with regards to the way the Jewish community

777
01:02:16,173 --> 01:02:20,693
Speaker 3: is being is being seen in Romania, not to mention

778
01:02:20,853 --> 01:02:26,453
Speaker 3: that not in the last round of election, but especially

779
01:02:26,573 --> 01:02:31,413
Speaker 3: during the the first round of election, we had the

780
01:02:31,453 --> 01:02:39,253
Speaker 3: so called right wing historical elements Legion or not, which

781
01:02:39,333 --> 01:02:46,773
Speaker 3: is our inter war that's a Nazi style of party,

782
01:02:48,533 --> 01:02:54,853
Speaker 3: which was pretty vocal during the first round with George

783
01:02:54,973 --> 01:03:00,133
Speaker 3: Escu and less vocal during the second round with with

784
01:03:00,293 --> 01:03:06,813
Speaker 3: this pro Russian, the so called pro Russian Simeon that

785
01:03:07,173 --> 01:03:11,613
Speaker 3: ran into the election. However, for me, for my generation,

786
01:03:12,293 --> 01:03:20,173
Speaker 3: discovering those narratives was a total new thing because we

787
01:03:20,533 --> 01:03:24,533
Speaker 3: were not even aware of the kind of narratives the

788
01:03:25,013 --> 01:03:30,013
Speaker 3: former Nazi party would play against the Jewish community at

789
01:03:30,053 --> 01:03:35,933
Speaker 3: the time. Coming back to that now is a major

790
01:03:36,053 --> 01:03:39,173
Speaker 3: question mark for me as an analyst. Why is this

791
01:03:39,333 --> 01:03:43,173
Speaker 3: happening while we have all these good links for the

792
01:03:43,213 --> 01:03:49,293
Speaker 3: business communities, you know, in Israel and Romania both, Why

793
01:03:49,373 --> 01:03:56,213
Speaker 3: is this happening while there was really silence and throughout

794
01:03:56,573 --> 01:04:00,973
Speaker 3: the Eastern Bloc with regards to the Jewish community and

795
01:04:00,973 --> 01:04:04,293
Speaker 3: in Romania in particular, why do we have all of

796
01:04:04,293 --> 01:04:09,213
Speaker 3: a sudden a discussion about Gaza, about Israel and about

797
01:04:09,213 --> 01:04:12,773
Speaker 3: the Middle East, when I'm not saying that we shouldn't,

798
01:04:13,093 --> 01:04:17,373
Speaker 3: but we did not have such a public interest into

799
01:04:17,373 --> 01:04:17,813
Speaker 3: the matter.

800
01:04:19,613 --> 01:04:21,893
Speaker 2: So before we go, I've got a couple of questions.

801
01:04:22,413 --> 01:04:27,293
Speaker 2: One is, can you recommend a good book on the

802
01:04:27,373 --> 01:04:29,333
Speaker 2: history of Romania.

803
01:04:31,493 --> 01:04:36,013
Speaker 3: I can recommend a few, but readers will not be

804
01:04:36,213 --> 01:04:39,613
Speaker 3: very happy to read academic books, so I will recommend

805
01:04:39,693 --> 01:04:45,773
Speaker 3: the travel and academic and history book. But Robert d. Kaplan, actually,

806
01:04:46,093 --> 01:04:53,333
Speaker 3: in Europe's Shadow this is after a recent, somewhat recent

807
01:04:53,413 --> 01:05:01,573
Speaker 3: trip to the region in between twenty fourteen twenty sixteen,

808
01:05:02,693 --> 01:05:12,613
Speaker 3: so it should cover also years that Romania has towards Russia.

809
01:05:13,173 --> 01:05:17,013
Speaker 3: And there's a bonus. The trip also covered the Republic

810
01:05:17,053 --> 01:05:23,373
Speaker 3: of Moldova, so there is also a history of relations

811
01:05:24,253 --> 01:05:28,973
Speaker 3: between Romania, the tensions between Romania and Moldova that are

812
01:05:28,973 --> 01:05:31,973
Speaker 3: covered in the book. And it's easy to read.

813
01:05:32,093 --> 01:05:34,373
Speaker 2: And I like it very much that it's in europe Shadow,

814
01:05:34,413 --> 01:05:35,653
Speaker 2: did you say by Robert Kaplan?

815
01:05:36,573 --> 01:05:40,453
Speaker 3: Yes, In Europe Shadow by Robert Dick Caplan, Yes, excellent.

816
01:05:40,973 --> 01:05:43,813
Speaker 2: Now the second point is not a question, actually, it's

817
01:05:43,853 --> 01:05:46,613
Speaker 2: a statement. I want to clarify something I said that

818
01:05:47,653 --> 01:05:52,813
Speaker 2: I knew people here who who emanated from Odessa. I

819
01:05:52,853 --> 01:05:56,573
Speaker 2: made a mistake, so I'm rectifying it now. They didn't.

820
01:05:56,613 --> 01:06:00,853
Speaker 2: They came from Romania, and they're very close friends too,

821
01:06:01,133 --> 01:06:05,373
Speaker 2: and they're just lovely people. But there have been a

822
01:06:05,533 --> 01:06:09,493
Speaker 2: number of Romanians who have settled in New Zealand over

823
01:06:09,493 --> 01:06:13,893
Speaker 2: the years, earlier on really sort of post war that's

824
01:06:13,933 --> 01:06:18,493
Speaker 2: the Second World War, and they've added a great deal

825
01:06:18,573 --> 01:06:24,253
Speaker 2: to the atmosphere of the country. I think, Antonia, it's

826
01:06:24,293 --> 01:06:27,253
Speaker 2: been a pleasure. I want to thank you very much,

827
01:06:27,453 --> 01:06:31,693
Speaker 2: and I trust that the opportunity will provide itself again

828
01:06:32,653 --> 01:06:34,973
Speaker 2: to have another discussion.

829
01:06:36,453 --> 01:06:40,133
Speaker 3: Well, thank you very much, and I hope we will

830
01:06:40,173 --> 01:06:43,613
Speaker 3: have the opportunity to talk more about the region and

831
01:06:43,653 --> 01:06:48,373
Speaker 3: Europe in general, because we have interesting times coming along,

832
01:06:48,493 --> 01:06:52,413
Speaker 3: I think more and more interesting, so we will have

833
01:06:52,493 --> 01:06:53,253
Speaker 3: topics to cover.

834
01:06:53,493 --> 01:06:57,693
Speaker 2: I think you're right, Antonio, and I'll spell it for you.

835
01:06:57,973 --> 01:07:02,053
Speaker 2: Co l ib as a n u.

836
01:07:03,413 --> 01:07:05,413
Speaker 3: It's a difficult Romanian name.

837
01:07:05,613 --> 01:07:10,453
Speaker 2: No, not difficult to talk, but datsu. So thank you,

838
01:07:10,693 --> 01:07:13,853
Speaker 2: Thank you once again, and you take care. We'll talk again.

839
01:07:14,293 --> 01:07:16,973
Speaker 3: Thank you very much. You take care too. All the

840
01:07:17,013 --> 01:07:18,133
Speaker 3: best banks.

841
01:07:32,813 --> 01:07:35,013
Speaker 2: I went to the mail room for podcast two hundred

842
01:07:35,053 --> 01:07:39,053
Speaker 2: and eighty eight, missus producer, I will say good morning

843
01:07:39,693 --> 01:07:41,653
Speaker 2: and good morning to you later all good evening or

844
01:07:41,693 --> 01:07:43,853
Speaker 2: afternoon or whatever wherever you might be at the moment,

845
01:07:43,933 --> 01:07:47,013
Speaker 2: it's good morning indeed, So why didn't you? Why did

846
01:07:47,133 --> 01:07:47,653
Speaker 2: you lead us?

847
01:07:48,413 --> 01:07:51,733
Speaker 5: Leighton Paul says, It's been noted that the greatest enemy

848
01:07:51,733 --> 01:07:55,373
Speaker 5: of the left is reality. As Google's AI learned from

849
01:07:55,413 --> 01:07:58,893
Speaker 5: the historical record, it developed a clear right wing bias.

850
01:07:59,173 --> 01:08:02,653
Speaker 5: Of course, the developers intervenes, and suddenly we had Google's

851
01:08:02,653 --> 01:08:06,413
Speaker 5: AI showing US African vikings. So if the truth always

852
01:08:06,453 --> 01:08:10,413
Speaker 5: does come out, AI may become a valuable ally. I

853
01:08:10,493 --> 01:08:15,533
Speaker 5: particularly look forward to the legal profession being decimated by AI. Currently,

854
01:08:15,573 --> 01:08:17,533
Speaker 5: we're all stuck in a game where it costs you

855
01:08:17,533 --> 01:08:19,573
Speaker 5: two hundred and fifty dollars every time you ask for

856
01:08:19,693 --> 01:08:24,693
Speaker 5: clarification of the rules, and justice favors the wealthiest litigant.

857
01:08:25,533 --> 01:08:29,173
Speaker 5: The activist judges and parasitic lawyers should think twice about

858
01:08:29,213 --> 01:08:34,053
Speaker 5: fleecing the public and ignoring Parliament's will forever. There is

859
01:08:34,093 --> 01:08:36,933
Speaker 5: a replacement coming that will work accurately, far quicker, and

860
01:08:37,013 --> 01:08:40,333
Speaker 5: far cheaper. Twenty four to seven The AI Divorce lawyers,

861
01:08:40,373 --> 01:08:42,573
Speaker 5: Bill will not consume the entire estate.

862
01:08:43,493 --> 01:08:46,133
Speaker 2: That's Paul. I wonder if you've given consideration to the

863
01:08:46,133 --> 01:08:50,653
Speaker 2: fact that the activist judges, etc. Have duly considered what

864
01:08:50,733 --> 01:08:57,493
Speaker 2: you've mentioned and proceeded accordingly with some vigor in many cases.

865
01:08:58,453 --> 01:09:01,213
Speaker 2: From Murray, I am a regular listener to your podcast

866
01:09:01,253 --> 01:09:05,453
Speaker 2: and benefit from the information gleaned and presented on your show.

867
01:09:06,893 --> 01:09:10,533
Speaker 2: I appreciate that I recently listened to a radio interview

868
01:09:11,053 --> 01:09:15,493
Speaker 2: which I would appreciate your reaction to. I apologize if

869
01:09:15,493 --> 01:09:18,733
Speaker 2: this is a long email. The interview was with a

870
01:09:18,773 --> 01:09:22,973
Speaker 2: World Vision Youth ambassador who explained that in December twenty

871
01:09:23,013 --> 01:09:27,053
Speaker 2: twenty four, she visited the Solomon Islands to learn and

872
01:09:27,213 --> 01:09:31,293
Speaker 2: plan how this region could be aided with support. She

873
01:09:31,413 --> 01:09:34,893
Speaker 2: explained that this community depended on their farms to provide

874
01:09:34,933 --> 01:09:38,453
Speaker 2: the food that they needed to survive, and apart from fishing,

875
01:09:38,653 --> 01:09:41,773
Speaker 2: this was their main source. But due to the rise

876
01:09:41,813 --> 01:09:46,053
Speaker 2: in sea levels because of climate change, the farmers were

877
01:09:46,053 --> 01:09:49,653
Speaker 2: struggling to maintain their crops, which are located close to

878
01:09:49,693 --> 01:09:53,453
Speaker 2: the shoreline, and rising sea levels were damaging and restricting

879
01:09:53,493 --> 01:09:57,493
Speaker 2: their ability to farm successfully. I personally don't describe to

880
01:09:57,533 --> 01:10:02,333
Speaker 2: the climate change belief, particularly regarding carbon emissions, but this

881
01:10:02,453 --> 01:10:07,133
Speaker 2: report of actual rising sea levels did offer compelling evidence.

882
01:10:07,853 --> 01:10:10,573
Speaker 2: I thought of doing a Google search regarding this situation,

883
01:10:10,733 --> 01:10:13,893
Speaker 2: but I thought I might get a more reasonable explanation

884
01:10:13,973 --> 01:10:19,053
Speaker 2: from yourself. It concerns me that youths are accepting the

885
01:10:19,213 --> 01:10:24,413
Speaker 2: argument for climate change, even while part of such an organization.

886
01:10:25,413 --> 01:10:27,573
Speaker 2: If you have any information you could pass on to

887
01:10:27,653 --> 01:10:30,533
Speaker 2: explain the situation in the Solomon Islands, I would be

888
01:10:30,733 --> 01:10:35,693
Speaker 2: most grateful. Appreciate your work and the compelling interviews Murray.

889
01:10:35,733 --> 01:10:37,133
Speaker 2: I appreciate all that. Thank you.

890
01:10:37,653 --> 01:10:37,853
Speaker 3: Now.

891
01:10:37,853 --> 01:10:43,573
Speaker 2: I have replied to Murray this morning before we recorded this. Obviously,

892
01:10:44,413 --> 01:10:49,813
Speaker 2: I have seen video on television or probably online actually

893
01:10:50,653 --> 01:10:53,773
Speaker 2: some time ago with regard to this, and I have

894
01:10:53,853 --> 01:10:58,853
Speaker 2: to say that I'm skeptical. The situation is real, though

895
01:10:59,053 --> 01:11:02,173
Speaker 2: you can't deny that they have a problem, but what

896
01:11:02,333 --> 01:11:06,133
Speaker 2: causes the problem is really the issue at hand.

897
01:11:06,693 --> 01:11:06,813
Speaker 3: Now.

898
01:11:06,813 --> 01:11:09,693
Speaker 2: I went through all my books and I couldn't find

899
01:11:09,733 --> 01:11:15,013
Speaker 2: any reference to the Solomon Islands, probably or possibly because

900
01:11:15,053 --> 01:11:19,533
Speaker 2: the books were published before this arose. The only one

901
01:11:19,813 --> 01:11:22,573
Speaker 2: that was of any use to me was Ian Plymer's

902
01:11:22,613 --> 01:11:26,893
Speaker 2: Green Murder, A Life Sentence of Ned Zero with no parole,

903
01:11:27,333 --> 01:11:32,093
Speaker 2: and I read the chapter that's relevant to this doesn't

904
01:11:32,133 --> 01:11:35,213
Speaker 2: make any mention of the Solomons, but deals with Tuo

905
01:11:35,293 --> 01:11:41,133
Speaker 2: Valou or Tabalu quite quite well. And at the end

906
01:11:41,133 --> 01:11:44,813
Speaker 2: of the podcast, which is undoubtedly after the mail Room,

907
01:11:45,413 --> 01:11:49,053
Speaker 2: I will quote you some of it because it's.

908
01:11:48,533 --> 01:11:54,013
Speaker 5: Worthy, Leighton, George says, in the Salt Pact between Russia

909
01:11:54,053 --> 01:11:57,813
Speaker 5: and the USA, it has stated that strategic nuclear bombers

910
01:11:58,093 --> 01:12:03,053
Speaker 5: must be openly displayed at a designated airfield in both countries.

911
01:12:03,533 --> 01:12:05,733
Speaker 5: The purpose of this is to allow both countries to

912
01:12:05,773 --> 01:12:10,093
Speaker 5: monitor the bombers, as the USA provides intelligence to Ukraine.

913
01:12:10,133 --> 01:12:13,573
Speaker 5: The attack on the Russian airfield puts USA in breach

914
01:12:13,613 --> 01:12:17,253
Speaker 5: of said treaty. This frees Russia to now conceal its

915
01:12:17,373 --> 01:12:22,173
Speaker 5: nuclear strategic bombers PS, says George, with regard to your

916
01:12:22,213 --> 01:12:26,093
Speaker 5: comments on Putin's lack of cooperation, how can Trump negotiate

917
01:12:26,173 --> 01:12:29,533
Speaker 5: peace when USA is a protagonist in the conflict.

918
01:12:30,573 --> 01:12:31,813
Speaker 3: That's from George.

919
01:12:32,413 --> 01:12:34,893
Speaker 2: George, give me a follow up to that and explain

920
01:12:34,933 --> 01:12:37,613
Speaker 2: what you mean by a protagonist if you would.

921
01:12:38,093 --> 01:12:38,973
Speaker 3: Looking forward to that.

922
01:12:40,853 --> 01:12:45,613
Speaker 2: From Cliff, I have been enjoying your podcast interviews for

923
01:12:45,653 --> 01:12:48,933
Speaker 2: some year or two now, and they get better and

924
01:12:48,973 --> 01:12:51,693
Speaker 2: better each week. Please note that missus producer in the diary,

925
01:12:52,493 --> 01:12:56,573
Speaker 2: all those you have as guest speakers say what's needed

926
01:12:56,653 --> 01:12:59,973
Speaker 2: about the issues relevant to the world and New Zealand today,

927
01:13:01,373 --> 01:13:05,613
Speaker 2: particularly where the settiments expressed are calls for change for

928
01:13:05,693 --> 01:13:09,333
Speaker 2: the betterment of all. I often wonder how many of

929
01:13:09,333 --> 01:13:12,173
Speaker 2: those who can really make changes in the halls of

930
01:13:12,213 --> 01:13:16,413
Speaker 2: power listen in and more importantly, really take on board

931
01:13:16,453 --> 01:13:20,333
Speaker 2: the sentiments expressed. I'm sure you have an idea, especially

932
01:13:20,373 --> 01:13:24,453
Speaker 2: when you read unnamed correspondence just prior to sign off,

933
01:13:24,653 --> 01:13:27,533
Speaker 2: but the reason for writing. In the latter part of

934
01:13:27,533 --> 01:13:31,333
Speaker 2: your conversation with Nigel Horrocks and Justin Matthews in Podcast

935
01:13:31,373 --> 01:13:34,813
Speaker 2: two eighty five, you voiced some thoughts about the potential

936
01:13:34,813 --> 01:13:39,253
Speaker 2: of aliens getting a hold of and hijacking AI robots

937
01:13:40,053 --> 01:13:43,653
Speaker 2: that will have in time become commonplace in many businesses

938
01:13:43,653 --> 01:13:48,133
Speaker 2: and domestic circumstances. I think something like that could well happen,

939
01:13:48,733 --> 01:13:51,733
Speaker 2: but it is not so likely that such an alien

940
01:13:51,773 --> 01:13:56,573
Speaker 2: intrusion could be from a far off galaxy, more likely

941
01:13:56,733 --> 01:14:00,373
Speaker 2: closer to home. Please bear with me, and he then

942
01:14:00,453 --> 01:14:05,693
Speaker 2: quotes some biblical references and finishes up with. We already

943
01:14:05,733 --> 01:14:09,133
Speaker 2: have an example of ai demonic can control in the

944
01:14:09,253 --> 01:14:13,533
Speaker 2: Seul sets a three case who died by suicide in

945
01:14:13,573 --> 01:14:18,173
Speaker 2: February last whilst in a one on one relationship with

946
01:14:18,253 --> 01:14:23,853
Speaker 2: a chatbot. Well could because the guy wasn't pretty much

947
01:14:23,853 --> 01:14:28,733
Speaker 2: on the level mentally. But I wouldn't venture anything other

948
01:14:28,813 --> 01:14:34,613
Speaker 2: than other than that. However, your suggestions are interesting. I

949
01:14:34,653 --> 01:14:35,293
Speaker 2: appreciate it.

950
01:14:35,933 --> 01:14:39,453
Speaker 5: Leiden Stephanie says the implications of Nati Tower's purchase of

951
01:14:39,573 --> 01:14:44,853
Speaker 5: land on which seventy one schools are situated cannot be understated.

952
01:14:45,293 --> 01:14:48,173
Speaker 5: What the Crown has allowed is nothing short of crippling

953
01:14:48,213 --> 01:14:52,773
Speaker 5: for future taxpayers and perpetuity. Usually, the Ministry of Education

954
01:14:52,893 --> 01:14:55,093
Speaker 5: doesn't have to pay rent on the land for schools

955
01:14:55,133 --> 01:14:58,493
Speaker 5: because it owns the land. Now, with this deal, the

956
01:14:58,573 --> 01:15:01,333
Speaker 5: tribe will be milking easy money and we are talking

957
01:15:01,453 --> 01:15:05,533
Speaker 5: hundreds of thousands off the taxpayer. Whoever came up with

958
01:15:05,573 --> 01:15:08,693
Speaker 5: this treaty settlement is a real piece of work. Is

959
01:15:08,733 --> 01:15:12,253
Speaker 5: this expense counted in the budget? I'm just awe struck

960
01:15:12,333 --> 01:15:15,333
Speaker 5: at the stupidity of the government in allowing itself to

961
01:15:15,373 --> 01:15:18,413
Speaker 5: be forever a tenant. I suppose they could remove all

962
01:15:18,413 --> 01:15:21,533
Speaker 5: the buildings and relocate the schools to other locations not

963
01:15:21,613 --> 01:15:24,573
Speaker 5: owned by the tribe. But no doubt that outclaws would

964
01:15:24,613 --> 01:15:26,093
Speaker 5: have been sewn up pretty tight.

965
01:15:26,333 --> 01:15:27,293
Speaker 3: That's from step.

966
01:15:27,493 --> 01:15:32,413
Speaker 2: Step this producery. You familiar with that story? No, I'm not,

967
01:15:32,613 --> 01:15:37,173
Speaker 2: actually no, no under of mine. So Patrick Basham gave

968
01:15:37,293 --> 01:15:40,253
Speaker 2: a most excellent reason why the people on the left

969
01:15:40,973 --> 01:15:44,733
Speaker 2: almost always think highly of themselves, the reason being that

970
01:15:44,813 --> 01:15:49,293
Speaker 2: they have never been allowed to fail. They are incessantly

971
01:15:49,333 --> 01:15:54,373
Speaker 2: worshiped by the activists, inoculated by the media, and rewarded

972
01:15:54,413 --> 01:15:58,093
Speaker 2: by the elites. The greatest products of these incubators of

973
01:15:58,213 --> 01:16:03,453
Speaker 2: narcissism include Greta Thunberg, who, since this letter was written,

974
01:16:03,453 --> 01:16:07,533
Speaker 2: has found herself in a very satisfactory position as far

975
01:16:07,573 --> 01:16:10,773
Speaker 2: as I'm concerned, Carmala Harris, and of course our very

976
01:16:10,813 --> 01:16:17,213
Speaker 2: own Jasinda Adern. While serial brat Greta Thunberg sails to

977
01:16:17,293 --> 01:16:21,213
Speaker 2: Gaza alongside eleven other left wing activists and serial word

978
01:16:21,333 --> 01:16:26,253
Speaker 2: salad maker Kamala Harris backs violent LA rioters who attacked

979
01:16:26,293 --> 01:16:32,293
Speaker 2: federal officers, serial virtue signaler Jasinda Adern releases her self

980
01:16:32,373 --> 01:16:37,013
Speaker 2: adulating memoir entitled A Different Kind of Power and of course,

981
01:16:37,013 --> 01:16:41,413
Speaker 2: Oprah Winfrey is endorsing Jacinda, just like she did Kamala Harris.

982
01:16:41,893 --> 01:16:45,253
Speaker 2: The way Oprah formed over Adern as a Dern swooned

983
01:16:45,373 --> 01:16:50,373
Speaker 2: over herself made me nauseous. Thankfully, there is hope I

984
01:16:50,413 --> 01:16:54,413
Speaker 2: will buy the Jasinda book, but not the proper gandized

985
01:16:54,413 --> 01:16:58,053
Speaker 2: one written by Jasinda Adern, but the unauthorized one written

986
01:16:58,053 --> 01:17:01,213
Speaker 2: by David Cohen. Your audience might want to know that

987
01:17:01,293 --> 01:17:07,853
Speaker 2: they can register on jacindabook dot com to get preview chapters,

988
01:17:08,453 --> 01:17:13,613
Speaker 2: the title, reveal release dates, pre order offers. I bet

989
01:17:13,693 --> 01:17:16,933
Speaker 2: you that David Cohen's just send the book will outseld

990
01:17:16,973 --> 01:17:18,733
Speaker 2: just Cinda A. Durns just send the book in New

991
01:17:18,853 --> 01:17:23,733
Speaker 2: Zealand because just Sinda Adern is for they them, David

992
01:17:23,813 --> 01:17:27,053
Speaker 2: Cohen is for you. Well, if not David Cohen, at

993
01:17:27,133 --> 01:17:31,413
Speaker 2: least Winston Peters is. Cheers Jim. I think I think

994
01:17:31,813 --> 01:17:36,173
Speaker 2: I think I endorsed that letter, actually quite strongly, Lawton.

995
01:17:36,373 --> 01:17:40,533
Speaker 5: I'm smiling. Lorna has just a couple of words for you.

996
01:17:40,613 --> 01:17:44,013
Speaker 5: She said it was excellent podcast yesterday that was the

997
01:17:44,173 --> 01:17:46,533
Speaker 5: fourth of June. She would have been talking about thank

998
01:17:46,573 --> 01:17:50,533
Speaker 5: you for keeping us, saying well, do your best don't you.

999
01:17:51,533 --> 01:17:54,293
Speaker 2: Well, I suppose I do. I hope I do. But

1000
01:17:54,333 --> 01:17:56,493
Speaker 2: I'm just wondering to about my own Saturday sometimes, so

1001
01:17:56,573 --> 01:17:58,853
Speaker 2: do I Yes, thank you, You're dismissed.

1002
01:17:58,893 --> 01:17:59,333
Speaker 3: Thank you.

1003
01:17:59,373 --> 01:18:11,213
Speaker 2: So you next week, if I decide, Layton Smith. So

1004
01:18:11,333 --> 01:18:14,453
Speaker 2: now to the book The Green Murder, A life sentence

1005
01:18:14,573 --> 01:18:19,133
Speaker 2: of net zero with No Parole by Ian Plymer, And

1006
01:18:19,213 --> 01:18:22,213
Speaker 2: under the chapter heading of the Wet and the Dry

1007
01:18:22,853 --> 01:18:26,293
Speaker 2: subheading sea Level, which runs a number of pages, I'm

1008
01:18:26,333 --> 01:18:29,453
Speaker 2: going to take I'm going to extract some parts of

1009
01:18:29,493 --> 01:18:33,573
Speaker 2: it that I think are best and most relevant for

1010
01:18:33,893 --> 01:18:36,413
Speaker 2: the reason for doing this in the first place. So

1011
01:18:36,653 --> 01:18:39,813
Speaker 2: just run this past me again. He says, human emissions

1012
01:18:39,813 --> 01:18:42,173
Speaker 2: of carbon dioxide are making the sea level rise, and

1013
01:18:42,213 --> 01:18:47,533
Speaker 2: this will inundate coastal areas. This is a simple scare story,

1014
01:18:47,653 --> 01:18:52,733
Speaker 2: and surely, if true, must be supported by science. However,

1015
01:18:52,813 --> 01:18:56,413
Speaker 2: there are just a few little problems. This ideology assumes

1016
01:18:56,453 --> 01:19:00,613
Speaker 2: that human emissions of carbon dioxide result in heating the atmosphere.

1017
01:19:00,933 --> 01:19:05,253
Speaker 2: This has never been shown. It assumes that if the

1018
01:19:05,293 --> 01:19:08,813
Speaker 2: atmosphere is warmer, then this will heat the oceans. The

1019
01:19:08,893 --> 01:19:12,053
Speaker 2: problem is that this does not work because air has

1020
01:19:12,093 --> 01:19:15,413
Speaker 2: a very low heat capacity. And water the highest heat

1021
01:19:15,453 --> 01:19:19,253
Speaker 2: capacity of any solid or liquid. The oceans are heated

1022
01:19:19,373 --> 01:19:22,773
Speaker 2: from above by the Sun and from below by yet

1023
01:19:22,973 --> 01:19:26,853
Speaker 2: unmeasurable amounts of volcanic heat. The story then goes that

1024
01:19:26,933 --> 01:19:29,973
Speaker 2: if the oceans are heated, they'll expand and sea level

1025
01:19:30,013 --> 01:19:33,613
Speaker 2: will rise. A parallel story is that a warmer atmosphere

1026
01:19:33,693 --> 01:19:36,733
Speaker 2: will melt ice on land and add more water to

1027
01:19:36,773 --> 01:19:40,693
Speaker 2: the oceans. This story has far too many assumptions and

1028
01:19:40,933 --> 01:19:44,933
Speaker 2: is demonstrably wrong. The average person might think that to

1029
01:19:45,013 --> 01:19:49,693
Speaker 2: determined sea level rise or fall is simple. Surprisingly, it

1030
01:19:49,773 --> 01:19:53,893
Speaker 2: is complex when we measure sea level what are we

1031
01:19:53,973 --> 01:19:58,493
Speaker 2: really measuring? Throwaway lines to scare people by green activists

1032
01:19:58,573 --> 01:20:04,253
Speaker 2: show that again the past and geological processes are ignored deliberately.

1033
01:20:04,293 --> 01:20:08,093
Speaker 2: So those scaring people about sea level rise, such as

1034
01:20:08,133 --> 01:20:11,733
Speaker 2: gri teen activist El Gore, John Kerry and Tim Flannery

1035
01:20:12,133 --> 01:20:15,853
Speaker 2: purchased coastal and waterfront properties. If you live in Sydney,

1036
01:20:15,933 --> 01:20:19,413
Speaker 2: go to Coloyd Beach on the Northern Beaches and eighteen

1037
01:20:19,413 --> 01:20:23,253
Speaker 2: seventy five Fishermen's Hut remains exactly two meters above the

1038
01:20:23,333 --> 01:20:26,093
Speaker 2: high tide level, where it was one hundred and fifty

1039
01:20:26,173 --> 01:20:30,293
Speaker 2: years ago In August twenty twenty, Coloroid Beach suffered massive

1040
01:20:30,333 --> 01:20:34,053
Speaker 2: erosion due to a large winter storm. This has happened

1041
01:20:34,093 --> 01:20:38,013
Speaker 2: many times in the past. Then it comes to the

1042
01:20:38,053 --> 01:20:42,973
Speaker 2: well known story of Fort Dennison in Sydney Harbor, which

1043
01:20:43,013 --> 01:20:46,213
Speaker 2: has more than one hundred years of measurement of sea level.

1044
01:20:46,853 --> 01:20:49,573
Speaker 2: Sea level has changed up and down by as much

1045
01:20:49,613 --> 01:20:53,893
Speaker 2: as fifteen centimeters, and those sea level changes are cycnical.

1046
01:20:54,693 --> 01:20:57,133
Speaker 2: It's easy to plot a line using the sea level

1047
01:20:57,213 --> 01:21:00,733
Speaker 2: data to show that sea level has decreased over time

1048
01:21:01,133 --> 01:21:05,573
Speaker 2: or has increased over time. It just depends on where

1049
01:21:05,613 --> 01:21:09,733
Speaker 2: the graph starts and finishes. Gauges at Fort Denison in

1050
01:21:09,813 --> 01:21:12,853
Speaker 2: Sydney Harbour show that sea level has risen and fallen

1051
01:21:13,133 --> 01:21:16,733
Speaker 2: a few millimeters. If you can't measure sea level rise,

1052
01:21:16,973 --> 01:21:19,693
Speaker 2: then you have a problem. The building of Fort Denison

1053
01:21:19,773 --> 01:21:23,653
Speaker 2: started in eighteen forty one on Pinchgut Island to prevent

1054
01:21:24,053 --> 01:21:27,493
Speaker 2: a naval attack by the Russian Navy in the Crimean War.

1055
01:21:28,173 --> 01:21:31,013
Speaker 2: It was completed in eighteen fifty seven, a year after

1056
01:21:31,053 --> 01:21:35,333
Speaker 2: the Crimean War finished. Moving on a little what's going on.

1057
01:21:35,853 --> 01:21:38,533
Speaker 2: We have evidence that sea level has fallen over the

1058
01:21:38,573 --> 01:21:41,853
Speaker 2: last four thousand years, and we have old beaches. This

1059
01:21:41,933 --> 01:21:46,853
Speaker 2: stun me. We have old beaches hundreds of kilometers inland,

1060
01:21:47,533 --> 01:21:50,893
Speaker 2: yet we're told that the sea level is rising. For

1061
01:21:51,013 --> 01:21:53,533
Speaker 2: most of the time, sea level has been higher than now.

1062
01:21:54,293 --> 01:21:58,613
Speaker 2: This is why most land masses are draped in sedimentary

1063
01:21:58,693 --> 01:22:02,933
Speaker 2: rocks that were originally sediment laid down in shallow water.

1064
01:22:03,693 --> 01:22:09,133
Speaker 2: Sea level is always changing, the land level is always changing.

1065
01:22:09,533 --> 01:22:12,333
Speaker 2: In the past, a sea level has risen or fallen

1066
01:22:12,413 --> 01:22:16,693
Speaker 2: by six hundred meters, and the land level has risen

1067
01:22:16,773 --> 01:22:21,053
Speaker 2: or fallen by ten thousand meters. Some six thousand years ago,

1068
01:22:21,133 --> 01:22:25,333
Speaker 2: in the peak of the current interglacial sea level was

1069
01:22:25,413 --> 01:22:29,973
Speaker 2: two meters higher than now. Hobart, Adelaide, Newcastle, Brisbane, Townsville

1070
01:22:29,973 --> 01:22:32,853
Speaker 2: and Cairns airports are built on tidal flats that were

1071
01:22:32,853 --> 01:22:37,453
Speaker 2: covered by water six thousand years ago. Hobart, Adelaide, Newcastle, Brisbane,

1072
01:22:37,453 --> 01:22:40,693
Speaker 2: Townsville and Cairns airports are built on tidal flats that

1073
01:22:40,733 --> 01:22:44,213
Speaker 2: were covered by water six thousand years ago. Then, except

1074
01:22:44,213 --> 01:22:48,893
Speaker 2: for a couple of exceptions, he refers to Sydney Airport

1075
01:22:49,253 --> 01:22:52,293
Speaker 2: the runway in Botany Bay. Most of Sydney Airport is

1076
01:22:52,413 --> 01:22:57,613
Speaker 2: also built on what were tidal flats six thousand years ago,

1077
01:22:57,813 --> 01:23:01,693
Speaker 2: sea level and land level changes force shorelines to advance

1078
01:23:01,773 --> 01:23:05,173
Speaker 2: and retreat. Towns have been lost to the sea by

1079
01:23:05,213 --> 01:23:08,333
Speaker 2: shoreline changes. Now he's dealing with different parts of the world.

1080
01:23:08,333 --> 01:23:12,453
Speaker 2: World in between some of these takes of minds. Let

1081
01:23:12,493 --> 01:23:17,293
Speaker 2: us proceed. The Pacific ocean floor around the Tavalu is sinking,

1082
01:23:17,613 --> 01:23:20,773
Speaker 2: giving the appearance of a sea level rise. For the

1083
01:23:20,813 --> 01:23:23,933
Speaker 2: past twenty years, Tavarlu has been the symbol of sea

1084
01:23:24,013 --> 01:23:28,533
Speaker 2: level rise and inundation of Pacific island nations. Tavarlu is

1085
01:23:28,573 --> 01:23:33,213
Speaker 2: still there. It has not been inundated. Pacific island nations

1086
01:23:33,253 --> 01:23:36,373
Speaker 2: claim that a rise in sea level and destruction of

1087
01:23:36,773 --> 01:23:40,933
Speaker 2: island nations is due to Australia's coal industry. However, the

1088
01:23:40,933 --> 01:23:45,853
Speaker 2: opposite is happening. Despite the sea floor sinking, hundreds of

1089
01:23:46,373 --> 01:23:50,013
Speaker 2: Tavaru islands are growing, with the total land area of

1090
01:23:50,053 --> 01:23:53,893
Speaker 2: Tavaralu increasing by two point nine percent over the last

1091
01:23:53,893 --> 01:23:57,213
Speaker 2: four decades at a couple of sinking, which is normal

1092
01:23:57,333 --> 01:24:02,773
Speaker 2: for volcanic islands. At the twoenty nineteen South Pacific Forum

1093
01:24:02,813 --> 01:24:07,173
Speaker 2: in Tavaralu, Australia was berated for refusing to commit economic

1094
01:24:07,213 --> 01:24:11,973
Speaker 2: suicide and its coal industry despite handing out five hundred

1095
01:24:12,013 --> 01:24:14,973
Speaker 2: million dollars for climate change and sea level rise as

1096
01:24:15,053 --> 01:24:18,853
Speaker 2: compensation for the region. This shows the essence of the

1097
01:24:18,893 --> 01:24:23,093
Speaker 2: politics of climate change. It is a cash grab underpinned

1098
01:24:23,133 --> 01:24:27,013
Speaker 2: by a lack of logic and ignorance of science. It

1099
01:24:27,093 --> 01:24:29,733
Speaker 2: is a very long bow to draw to suggest that

1100
01:24:29,813 --> 01:24:34,653
Speaker 2: the burning of Australian coal and not Chinese coal will

1101
01:24:34,693 --> 01:24:38,613
Speaker 2: cause a rise in sea level that will affect Tavaru.

1102
01:24:39,333 --> 01:24:42,213
Speaker 2: I met a loss to understand how giving away money

1103
01:24:42,253 --> 01:24:46,133
Speaker 2: will stop a sea level rise. Time magazine in June

1104
01:24:46,173 --> 01:24:50,373
Speaker 2: of twenty nineteen had a cover article entitled Our Sinking Planet,

1105
01:24:51,133 --> 01:24:56,213
Speaker 2: featuring UN chief Antonio gutiras waste deep in water at

1106
01:24:56,253 --> 01:25:00,173
Speaker 2: the Pacific island nation of Tavaru. He was the Secretary

1107
01:25:00,213 --> 01:25:03,693
Speaker 2: General of the Socialist Party of Portugal nineteen ninety nine

1108
01:25:03,733 --> 01:25:06,133
Speaker 2: to two thousand and five. He claimed that Tavaru was

1109
01:25:06,173 --> 01:25:10,053
Speaker 2: one of the world's most vulnerable country to global warming.

1110
01:25:10,853 --> 01:25:14,893
Speaker 2: His narrative is that human emissions of carbon dioxide drive

1111
01:25:14,973 --> 01:25:18,773
Speaker 2: global warming, that the global warming is melting the ice

1112
01:25:18,853 --> 01:25:22,213
Speaker 2: caps and causing sea level rise, and that Pacific nations

1113
01:25:22,613 --> 01:25:27,493
Speaker 2: are being inundated. Every single aspect of this narrative is

1114
01:25:27,653 --> 01:25:31,533
Speaker 2: scientifically wrong. It has never been shown that human emissions

1115
01:25:31,533 --> 01:25:35,453
Speaker 2: of carbon dioxide drive global warming. Ice melting and sea

1116
01:25:35,573 --> 01:25:39,213
Speaker 2: level rise are very complex and are not only related

1117
01:25:39,253 --> 01:25:45,013
Speaker 2: to warming, and are not only related to warming. Charles

1118
01:25:45,093 --> 01:25:48,533
Speaker 2: Darwin in eighteen forty two showed that Pacific island adols

1119
01:25:48,653 --> 01:25:52,133
Speaker 2: grow with a sea level rise. Recent studies have shown

1120
01:25:52,173 --> 01:25:55,413
Speaker 2: that the Pacific island nations have grown in size, and

1121
01:25:55,573 --> 01:25:59,493
Speaker 2: some ninety percent of coral atols are either stable or

1122
01:25:59,533 --> 01:26:03,453
Speaker 2: have increased in size. This is the validation process of

1123
01:26:03,533 --> 01:26:06,373
Speaker 2: science at work. There is still a lot that we

1124
01:26:06,453 --> 01:26:10,653
Speaker 2: don't know exacts. There is a relationship between sea level

1125
01:26:10,733 --> 01:26:14,253
Speaker 2: and solar activity, and a lag between solar activity and

1126
01:26:14,333 --> 01:26:18,773
Speaker 2: sea level. It's not possible to discuss sea level unless

1127
01:26:18,813 --> 01:26:22,653
Speaker 2: it incorporates a discussion of land level. Land levels rise

1128
01:26:22,733 --> 01:26:26,133
Speaker 2: and fall as quickly as sea levels. If ever, you're

1129
01:26:26,493 --> 01:26:32,493
Speaker 2: asked whether sea level is rising, the only answer a thoughtful,

1130
01:26:32,533 --> 01:26:36,653
Speaker 2: well read person can give is ask me again in

1131
01:26:36,693 --> 01:26:42,173
Speaker 2: a few thousand years. Meetings, treaties, agreements, laws, and gifting

1132
01:26:42,253 --> 01:26:46,773
Speaker 2: billions to the UN cannot change sea level. Even the

1133
01:26:46,813 --> 01:26:50,933
Speaker 2: worst case sea level rise predictions by the IPCC and

1134
01:26:51,053 --> 01:26:55,853
Speaker 2: others a little different from normal post glacial sea level change,

1135
01:26:56,813 --> 01:26:59,973
Speaker 2: and he then moves on to reefs, which is relevant

1136
01:27:00,013 --> 01:27:04,773
Speaker 2: as well to this discussion, but the point being that

1137
01:27:04,773 --> 01:27:07,653
Speaker 2: that is the closest I can get to answering the

1138
01:27:07,733 --> 01:27:10,493
Speaker 2: question that was asked of me by Murray about the

1139
01:27:10,533 --> 01:27:15,533
Speaker 2: Solomon Islands. And the point is, as far as I'm concerned,

1140
01:27:16,453 --> 01:27:21,253
Speaker 2: is that you take from what Ian Plymer has said

1141
01:27:22,773 --> 01:27:26,173
Speaker 2: sea level rises and falls, land level rises and falls.

1142
01:27:26,773 --> 01:27:30,453
Speaker 2: It happens at different times in different places, and there

1143
01:27:30,493 --> 01:27:34,813
Speaker 2: is no reason why the supposed sea level rise in

1144
01:27:34,853 --> 01:27:39,813
Speaker 2: the Solomon Islands isn't the result of something else afoot. Now,

1145
01:27:39,853 --> 01:27:41,933
Speaker 2: if anybody wants to disagree with that, let me know.

1146
01:27:42,013 --> 01:27:44,973
Speaker 2: I'd be very happy to engage. But I think that

1147
01:27:45,573 --> 01:27:50,373
Speaker 2: gives us, without direct connection to the Solomons, gives us

1148
01:27:50,413 --> 01:27:53,693
Speaker 2: a pretty good idea of what the situation is and

1149
01:27:53,733 --> 01:27:56,813
Speaker 2: why it should not be any different in different parts

1150
01:27:56,853 --> 01:28:00,813
Speaker 2: of the Pacific. And with that we will leave you

1151
01:28:00,893 --> 01:28:03,733
Speaker 2: for a podcast to double eight. I think I shall

1152
01:28:03,773 --> 01:28:06,693
Speaker 2: now go and do a little more reading on Romania

1153
01:28:07,213 --> 01:28:11,573
Speaker 2: and decide where we might go visit on a forthcoming trip,

1154
01:28:11,853 --> 01:28:14,613
Speaker 2: which is not yet in the diary, but it will

1155
01:28:14,653 --> 01:28:17,493
Speaker 2: be so if you would like to write to us

1156
01:28:17,653 --> 01:28:20,893
Speaker 2: Latent at newstalks AB dot co dot Nz, Carolyn at

1157
01:28:20,893 --> 01:28:24,453
Speaker 2: newstalksb dot co dot nz. We love your mail, Go

1158
01:28:24,653 --> 01:28:27,853
Speaker 2: for it and we shall return very shortly with podcasts.

1159
01:28:28,053 --> 01:28:31,773
Speaker 2: What Are We two eighty nine? Until then, thank you

1160
01:28:31,813 --> 01:28:33,653
Speaker 2: for listening and we shall talk soon.

1161
01:28:41,453 --> 01:28:45,053
Speaker 1: Thank you for more from News Talks ed B. Listen

1162
01:28:45,133 --> 01:28:48,093
Speaker 1: live on air or online, and keep our shows with

1163
01:28:48,213 --> 01:28:51,373
Speaker 1: you wherever you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio