1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,000
Speaker 1: West in the Middle East, Israel's now talking about an

2
00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:04,920
Speaker 1: offensive on Lebanon. A decision and I mean in all

3
00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:07,320
Speaker 1: out war with his BLA is coming soon. Apparently the

4
00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:09,240
Speaker 1: director of the Center of Peace and Conflict Studies at

5
00:00:09,280 --> 00:00:11,399
Speaker 1: a Tiger, you know, Richard Jackson's back. Well this Richard,

6
00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:12,240
Speaker 1: very good morning to you.

7
00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:13,440
Speaker 2: Good morning.

8
00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:15,280
Speaker 1: If it's all on with Lebanon, is it all on

9
00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:16,840
Speaker 1: in the Middle East of the region.

10
00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:22,240
Speaker 2: Well, there is certainly the risks. It's a tinder box

11
00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:26,239
Speaker 2: at the moment. And you know, over the years, Hasbellah

12
00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,479
Speaker 2: and Israel have played this sort of careful game of

13
00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:33,960
Speaker 2: cat and mouse, both sides sort of sticking to certain

14
00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:38,440
Speaker 2: rules to make sure it doesn't escalate. But the conditions

15
00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:43,559
Speaker 2: over there now and the incentives for Natanya who as

16
00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,800
Speaker 2: well as Yeah, the breakdown in the kind of terrence

17
00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:53,680
Speaker 2: that Israel has always postured, Yeah, makes it a very

18
00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:55,680
Speaker 2: very dicey moment.

19
00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,000
Speaker 1: Does Israel have the wherewithal to go after Hamas and

20
00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,840
Speaker 1: his BLA all at the same time.

21
00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,920
Speaker 2: No, I don't think so. I mean, Hasbola would be

22
00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:11,600
Speaker 2: a much much bigger proposition than Hamas. Since the two

23
00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,920
Speaker 2: thousand and six war, they've been massively re arming, and

24
00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:20,080
Speaker 2: they have a lot more sophisticated weapons. They've also shown

25
00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:25,240
Speaker 2: that they can send new sophisticated drones into Israel under

26
00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:31,440
Speaker 2: their radar as so to speak. And you know, they've

27
00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:37,560
Speaker 2: threatened that they would do much much worse than they've

28
00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:42,520
Speaker 2: done before. And Israel is already struggling in the sense

29
00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,880
Speaker 2: that you know, they're calling up people up to the

30
00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:51,200
Speaker 2: age of forty now because they're running out of recruits

31
00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:52,720
Speaker 2: as it were, So.

32
00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:54,960
Speaker 1: Nick, Yeah, who's run out of a war cabinet? Which

33
00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,600
Speaker 1: is the other problem. How much is this purely about politics?

34
00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,800
Speaker 2: A lot of it is about politics. Not only are

35
00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,920
Speaker 2: there you know, growing divisions within Israeli society, but there's

36
00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:10,239
Speaker 2: growing divisions within the coalition. And you know, it's a

37
00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,440
Speaker 2: tried and true method that a war will unite things

38
00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:18,440
Speaker 2: for a time. And it's possible that Nanna, who's calculating

39
00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,680
Speaker 2: that in order to stay in power because he doesn't

40
00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:24,799
Speaker 2: want to lose power and have to go back to court,

41
00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:31,560
Speaker 2: you know, a fight with Hesbola would unify the nation,

42
00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,920
Speaker 2: but also it might actually help to re establish the

43
00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:40,520
Speaker 2: sort of fractures that are occurring in US support. Exactly,

44
00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:44,760
Speaker 2: you would have to step in, probably.

45
00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,160
Speaker 1: Exactly Rich appreciate your expertise as always, Richard Jackson. So

46
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,959
Speaker 1: there's old Anthony Blincoln firing up the jet engines yet again,

47
00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,200
Speaker 1: Director of the Center a Piece of Conflict Studies, Attiger

48
00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,400
Speaker 1: University of Course fifteen past seven. For more from the

49
00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:58,519
Speaker 1: mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks. It'd be

50
00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:02,359
Speaker 1: from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.