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Speaker 1: The issues, the interviews and the inside. Ryan Bridge new

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Speaker 1: for twenty twenty four on the early edition with Smith City,

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Speaker 1: New Zealand's Furniture Beds and Appliant Store News talks.

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Speaker 2: He'd be good morning. It is six half to five

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Speaker 2: news talks. They'd be on your Wednesday morning. A lot

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Speaker 2: to get through today. Could mortgage interest rates actually go

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Speaker 2: up after today's OCR announcement? We look at that just

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Speaker 2: before six Health New Zealand's open its books. That's an

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Speaker 2: absolute shambles. Doesn't know its elbow from its ahole. This

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Speaker 2: turtle that's been found with oil around it an oil slick?

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Speaker 2: How much damage can one thousand tons of oil do?

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Speaker 2: Plus why Trump has just crossed a line into racist retro.

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Speaker 1: The agenda.

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Speaker 2: It is Wednesday, the ninth of October. Great to have

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Speaker 2: your company this morning. Signs of a ceasefire? Is his

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Speaker 2: biler waving the white flag.

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Speaker 3: We support the political efforts led by President Barry for

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Speaker 3: US before the Seas for any other discussion.

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Speaker 2: Is no police Israel reckons. It's taken out number one

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Speaker 2: and number two from Hesbeller's leadership. Hurricane Milton has reduced

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Speaker 2: slightly in strength, dropping to a category four hurricane highways

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Speaker 2: out of Florida have been packed with vehicles as residents

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Speaker 2: try to leave.

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Speaker 4: You have to evacuate.

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Speaker 2: It is not survivable to survive at ten to fifteen

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Speaker 2: foot storm surge.

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Speaker 5: It just simply isn't.

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden's delayter planned visit overseas to oversee the hurricane preparations.

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Speaker 2: A list ranking the best universities in the world is

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Speaker 2: being released today, but not right now. It's been released

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Speaker 2: at midday, although I do have a copy of it

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Speaker 2: in my hand and I can't tell you anything about it.

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Speaker 2: Are you interested? Here's three questions that you'll want answered.

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Speaker 2: Does Otago get its best ever or worst ever result?

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Speaker 2: Does the University of Auckland excel or tumble? Any of

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Speaker 2: our universities improve their ranking this year? Nine two the

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Speaker 2: number to text the full results out News Talk said

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Speaker 2: be at twelve. Finally, this morning, the Australian Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Anthony Albaneze has managed to offend people with Turet's being

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Speaker 2: accused of mocking those with disabilities. He was mocking his

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Speaker 2: shadow treasurer Angus Taylor during question time.

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Speaker 3: Have you got Turet's or something.

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Speaker 1: You know?

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Speaker 5: You know you see there babbo babble bab order.

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Speaker 1: Get ahead of the headlines. Ryan Bridge you for twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four on early edition with Smith City, New Zealand's

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Speaker 1: furniture bids and a player store News Talk said.

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Speaker 2: Be not great, was it? Anyway? We spoke to you

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Speaker 2: yesterday about the qv data. This is house sales and

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Speaker 2: how the prices are holding up, and they have been

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Speaker 2: coming back not as not down by as much last

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Speaker 2: month as they were the month prior this. This morning

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Speaker 2: we've got trade me property data. There asked is this

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Speaker 2: a spring trend or a genuine market rebound? What's happened well? Nationally?

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Speaker 2: This is ahead of the OCR announcement too. We've had

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Speaker 2: five months of back to back declines. Now we've got

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Speaker 2: a rebound in September. The national average asking price for

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Speaker 2: a property in September was eight hundred and twenty three

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Speaker 2: thy five hundred bucks. That's up er point six percent

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Speaker 2: from August. So we're up point six from August. The

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Speaker 2: big movers the West Coast you're up three point one,

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Speaker 2: Northland up two percent, and Bay have plenty up one

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Speaker 2: point nine percent. What I found most interesting about this

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Speaker 2: is actually the big properties because you get those. You know,

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Speaker 2: you get a family, you have kids, kids move away,

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Speaker 2: you're an empty nester and you're left in this big

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Speaker 2: rambling house you can't take care of the difference between

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Speaker 2: Wellington and Auckland on the is quite interesting. So this

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Speaker 2: is for your five betties or more. In Wellington, prices

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Speaker 2: are down seventeen point five percent over the year, so

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Speaker 2: nearly twenty percent drop in big house and the value

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Speaker 2: of them in Wellington over the year, where however, in

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Speaker 2: Auckland prices up seven point two percent year on year,

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Speaker 2: So there you go. One to two bedroom units in

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Speaker 2: christ Church City have had a three point four percent

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Speaker 2: increase as well. Apparently quite a bit of demand for

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Speaker 2: the one and two betties in christ Church, So there

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Speaker 2: you go. Nine two ninety two is the numbered text.

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Speaker 2: We'd love to hear from you this morning, just gone

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Speaker 2: ten after five.

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Speaker 1: Ryan Bridge.

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Speaker 2: You know everybody everybody needs a friend, right, everybody needs

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Speaker 2: a shoulder to cry on, somebody to share your life with,

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Speaker 2: a buddy, a pal well. North Korean leader Kim jongon

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Speaker 2: has found his in Russian President Vladimir Putin. He sent

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Speaker 2: him a birthday card calling him his closest friend, his

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Speaker 2: closest comrade, I thought we stopped doing that at kindergarten.

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Speaker 2: Let's go play in them, Sampit build, missile and armies

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Speaker 2: eleven after five year on news Talk zeb Welcome to

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Speaker 2: your Wednesday morning.

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Speaker 1: News and views you trust to start your day. It's

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Speaker 1: early edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's

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Speaker 1: Furniture Beds and a flying store. News Talk ZIBB.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, it has just gone thirteen minutes after five

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Speaker 2: News Talk zib would love to hear from you this morning.

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Speaker 2: Nine two nine two is the number to text. Will

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Speaker 2: get to your messages in just a second. You might

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Speaker 2: not have seen this from yesterday, a sixty minutes interview,

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Speaker 2: sit down interview with Karmela Harris. The interviewer was CBS

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Speaker 2: News's Bill Whittaker, and he was quite good. He really

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Speaker 2: drilled down onto the border problem that Carmala Harris faces

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Speaker 2: because she was part of the Bio she is still

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Speaker 2: part of the Biden administration and they had a record

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Speaker 2: number of border crossings of illegal immigrants, illegal migrants across

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Speaker 2: the border, and she was asked repeatedly, was it a

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Speaker 2: mistake to have softer border policies which allowed record high

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Speaker 2: border crossings. Was it a mistake to kind of allow

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Speaker 2: that flood to happen in the first place. I think

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Speaker 2: the policies that we have been proposing are about fixing

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Speaker 2: a problem, not promoting a problem. Okay, but the numbers

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Speaker 2: did quadruple, and the numbers today because the numbers did quadruple,

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Speaker 2: that's correct. And the Vice President says she's got a

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Speaker 2: plan to fix it for the future, but isn't really

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Speaker 2: acknowledging what's happened already under her watch. Trump, on the

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Speaker 2: other hand, we used to write him writing against immigrants.

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Speaker 2: He's taken it too farthest time. Have a listen, you

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Speaker 2: know now a murderer.

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Speaker 6: I believe this.

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Speaker 7: It's in their genes. And we got a lot of

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Speaker 7: bad jeans in our country right now.

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry. You can talk about illegal aliens, You can

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Speaker 2: talk about illegal aliens killing Americans because that does happen.

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Speaker 2: I mean, those things are factual. But as soon as

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Speaker 2: you bring genes into it, that's what else is it?

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Speaker 2: But racism? Quarter past five Brian Bridge right Health New

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Speaker 2: Zealand to Fatto orders release around four hundred pages of

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Speaker 2: financial documents, and it details a big turnaround in March

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Speaker 2: this year, we were expecting a big surplus. By April

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Speaker 2: a one point four billion dollar deficit. What on earth

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Speaker 2: went wrong? One bright spot is that overspending has started

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Speaker 2: to drop, albeit slightly. It was one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 2: three million dollars in July. It's down to one hundred

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Speaker 2: and forty nine million dollars for August. Joining me this

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Speaker 2: morning is Patient Advocate, a chair of Patient Voice ALTI

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Speaker 2: At Malcolm mulholland. Malcolm, Good morning.

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Speaker 7: Morning, Ryan.

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Speaker 2: Are you worried about Health New Zealand's ability to actually count?

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Speaker 6: Yes?

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Speaker 7: I was flebbergasted at what was revealed yesterday. To, as

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Speaker 7: you say, go from expecting a half a billion dollar

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Speaker 7: surplus to one point four billion dollar deficit in the

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Speaker 7: base of one month, to me, requires a lot of explaining.

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Speaker 2: I have said that they've hired more nurses, more fte

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Speaker 2: nurses throughout the period, and they thought that some would leave,

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Speaker 2: but they haven't, so they've ended up with more than

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Speaker 2: they need. Presumably.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, look, I think that's just bullish it to be frank, Ryan,

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Speaker 7: There's no way you can tell me that we have

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Speaker 7: too many nurses right now in New Zealand. I mean,

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Speaker 7: I'm doing a roadshow right now visiting communities talking about healthcare,

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Speaker 7: and they're all telling me, we need more nurses, we

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Speaker 7: need more doctors. You've got masters in hospital that did

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Speaker 7: a calculation where they believe their forty nurses short will

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Speaker 7: a hospital can't even open because they don't have enough stuff.

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Speaker 7: That tells me that the FTE number by which Health

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Speaker 7: New Zealand were calculating, you know what is a good

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Speaker 7: number was far too low to begin with.

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Speaker 2: You're just not buying any of this. I mean, the

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Speaker 2: bigger problem for me is not necessarily where the spending

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Speaker 2: has come from, just the fact that they can't They

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Speaker 2: didn't identify it, they weren't able to preempt it. I mean,

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Speaker 2: who is the person control and control of the purse

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Speaker 2: strings here?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, look, that's a fantastic question, and I think that

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Speaker 7: that's one that definitely requires more investigation, more questions to

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Speaker 7: be asked, because we just simply do not know. And

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Speaker 7: it's not good enough that we don't know. We need

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Speaker 7: to know. Health is the biggest expenditure item of the government.

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Speaker 7: It's always been like that and it will continue to

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Speaker 7: be that way. We need to be on top of

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Speaker 7: our finances when it comes to the NESI on health system.

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Speaker 2: Hey, good luck with your rest of your road show, Malcolm.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, thanks, let Er. I'm looking forward to going to

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Speaker 7: AMU to Madushputin today and then christ Each tomorrow and

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Speaker 7: you know, really concerned actually at the state of our

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Speaker 7: health system right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, drive safe, Malcolm, Thanks so much for your time.

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Speaker 2: That's Malcolm Mulholland. He's the chair Patient Voice Alto. It

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Speaker 2: is eighteen minutes after five year on News Talk said

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Speaker 2: b coming up inside the next twenty minutes. I will

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Speaker 2: tell you what I think about those twoy billboards. Thank

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Speaker 2: you very much. Also, Sharon Zolner after six from A

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Speaker 2: and Z. That's on the OCR announcement that's coming and

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Speaker 2: we look at the oil spill apparently Turtle's now affected.

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Speaker 1: Ryan Bridge New for twenty twenty four on early edition

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Speaker 1: with Smith City, New Zealand's furniture beds and a playing store.

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Speaker 2: News Talk zid be interesting the number of people who

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Speaker 2: are paying their mortgages off on time and the number

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Speaker 2: of us that are actually going above and beyond the

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Speaker 2: standard and paying more so paying principle off. I'll get

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Speaker 2: to that in a second right now. Though the potential

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Speaker 2: echo catastrophe the Monumnui this is in Samar are videos

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Speaker 2: captured near the site yesterday of the grounding showing a

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Speaker 2: turtle struggling to swim in a thick oil slick with

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Speaker 2: shipping containers, planks of wood and life jackets floating nearby.

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Speaker 2: Nick Ling is the associate professor at Wancater University School

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Speaker 2: of Medicine. He's with us this morning, Nick, Good.

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Speaker 8: Morning, Yeah, good morning, right, how are you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm good, thank you. So this oil, let's first

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Speaker 2: of all, there's a thousand tons of it. This is

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Speaker 2: not arena grade heavy oil. This is engine oil.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, so, as I understand it, unlike the fuel oil

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Speaker 8: that was on the arena, which was called heavy fuel oil,

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Speaker 8: this is a much lighter grade. So it's more similar

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Speaker 8: to automotive diesel oil. So the thing is with these

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Speaker 8: ship oils is that they contain a mixture of different hydrocarbons.

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Speaker 8: And obviously the stuff that we burn in our cars

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Speaker 8: is a very light grade, and so if you leave

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Speaker 8: that to if you have the spill of that, it

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Speaker 8: would just simply evaporate away. So the stuff that's on

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Speaker 8: the Manuwanui is a light grade of shipping fuel oil,

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Speaker 8: and so much of the material that was released in

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Speaker 8: the early spill would have evaporated off and that leaves

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Speaker 8: a residue of the sort of heavier components, and that's

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Speaker 8: what would have been observed yesterday in that video of

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Speaker 8: that struggling turtle. And obviously, you know those sort of

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Speaker 8: marine animals, anything that has to interact with the surface,

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Speaker 8: like those turtles that have to come to the surface

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Speaker 8: to breathe, they will then encounter that.

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Speaker 2: And so the case that heavier layer stays on the surface, does.

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Speaker 8: It, yeah, yeah, Well, as the spill progresses, much of

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Speaker 8: those lighter components will evaporate and then finally the last

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Speaker 8: stage is that you'll get sort of tari deposits which

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Speaker 8: will actually be heavier than the water, and they will

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Speaker 8: then finally sink as tar balls to the bottom.

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Speaker 2: Right, And how big is this? How big of a

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Speaker 2: deal is this? A thousand tons.

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Speaker 8: Was certainly pretty big. So that's about three times the

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Speaker 8: amount of oil that was released from Marina wreck. But

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Speaker 8: certainly the media reports yesterday of the first assessment of

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Speaker 8: the wreck by divers are very encouraging in that they're

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Speaker 8: not showing any leakage currently and that would suggest that

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Speaker 8: almost all of that is contained within the wreck. So

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Speaker 8: obviously the next priority would be to remove that material

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Speaker 8: through salvaging the wreck.

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Speaker 2: Right, is there a risk actually getting SALVO vessels in

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Speaker 2: there that we might have a pile up?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, well certainly. You know, obviously it's right next to

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Speaker 8: a reef and it's a fairly exposed place, so there

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Speaker 8: is the potential hazard of working in that area when

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Speaker 8: you're sending other marine assets into that area. But it's

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Speaker 8: not impossible to do that. Obviously. The expert salvas are

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Speaker 8: used to working in those sort of conditions. I mean

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Speaker 8: that was the case with the Arena as well. The

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Speaker 8: salvers had to work right next to the reef in

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Speaker 8: a very exposed area, and so it's just a case

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Speaker 8: of managing that risk.

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Speaker 2: So best case scenario here, Nick, we have most of

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Speaker 2: the oil apparently still contained within the vessel. If we

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Speaker 2: can get in there at Selvo, the environmental impact might

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Speaker 2: be quite small.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, potentially, Yeah, I mean obviously there's potentially other

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Speaker 8: things on the wreck as well. I mean that was

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Speaker 8: the case with the arena. You know, it had contained

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Speaker 8: as a dangerous goods on board We don't know what

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Speaker 8: else is on the Manawanui at this stage, you know,

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Speaker 8: but potentially there's munitions and those sort of things that

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Speaker 8: might be on a naval ship and they would need

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Speaker 8: to be salvaged as well. But certainly the initial assessment

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Speaker 8: seems very encouraging that the wreck is fully intact, that's

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Speaker 8: sitting on the bottom at a reasonable depth. It's only

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Speaker 8: thirty meters deep. That means it's accessible by normal divers.

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Speaker 8: The fact that it's intact means that removing the oil

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Speaker 8: should be a much more simple task. And potentially salvaging

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Speaker 8: the entire wreck and removing it entirely is you know,

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Speaker 8: obviously easier to do when the wreck is intact rather

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Speaker 8: than broken up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, well that's a good point, and it's only

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Speaker 2: thirty deep, so that is potentially a possibility. Nick, thanks

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Speaker 2: you so much for your time. Nick Ling, Associate Professor,

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Speaker 2: School of Science at wykatz A University, saying the signs

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Speaker 2: are looking good in terms of the environmental impact. They're

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Speaker 2: just gone. Twenty five after five News Talks AB.

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Speaker 1: The Early Edition full show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by.

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Speaker 2: News Talks AB. News Talks HEB twenty seven minutes after

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Speaker 2: five o'clock on your Wednesday morning. Complaints, backlash, outrage, divisive, sad,

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Speaker 2: strong reaction to the Tioey billboards poking fun at old

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Speaker 2: polky and not guilty of killing his wife. By the

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Speaker 2: way the billboards read, if you haven't seen them back

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Speaker 2: to being a respectable meth smoking, sex worker loving doctor,

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Speaker 2: then you're right quite good. It's not breaking any rules,

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Speaker 2: and I say good on them for getting back to this.

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Speaker 2: We need good humor to cut through the crap that

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Speaker 2: our society seems to be. That seems to proliferate our

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Speaker 2: society at the moment. Kiwis are straights. We love taking

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Speaker 2: the mackey out of people. We're not mean generally, we

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Speaker 2: are fair, and I think we've lost our ability to

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Speaker 2: laugh together. In these billboards, while pitched by some as divisive,

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Speaker 2: I think will actually do the opposite. They should bring

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Speaker 2: us closer together. And I was heartened to hear the

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Speaker 2: dB marketing director Fraser Shrimpton's statement, which he gave to

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Speaker 2: the Papers. He said, while we haven't set out to

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Speaker 2: offend anyone, we are happy to push the boundaries and

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Speaker 2: say the things that we've all been thinking. Great. We

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Speaker 2: need to talk about how we really feel. Because when

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Speaker 2: we share it, especially with humor, we connect with one

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Speaker 2: another as a society, don't we We grow closer together,

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Speaker 2: we are less divided. So long may the twoy billboards last.

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Speaker 2: Bryan Bridge, twenty eight minutes after five now still come.

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Speaker 2: We're going to talk interest rates and whether, perversely a

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Speaker 2: change in the interest rate today up twenty five bays

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Speaker 2: points might bring send mortgage rates higher. Hmmm. We'll talk

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Speaker 2: to Sharon Zoler about that. From a n Z plea

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Speaker 2: you want to come here? Also the crater laker or

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Speaker 2: a pay who alarming people again slightly. I'll tell you

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Speaker 2: more about that and how much of us are paying

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Speaker 2: off principle on our mortgage news talk, said b.

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Speaker 1: Christ the news you need this morning and the in

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Speaker 1: depth analysis early edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City,

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Speaker 1: New Zealand's furniture bids and a playing store news talk

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Speaker 1: s B.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, New Zealand. It is twenty four minutes away

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Speaker 2: from six on your Wednesday. We are expecting an announcement

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Speaker 2: from the Reserve Bank today on the official cash rate,

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Speaker 2: which should hopefully make us all feel a little bit

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Speaker 2: richer before Christmas. There's one more meeting in November and

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Speaker 2: then they take a break, not back till next February.

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Speaker 2: Trish has a text in the program, Good morning Trish,

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Speaker 2: Perhaps you should have had a two y billboard for

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Speaker 2: Adrian or what would it say, Adrian all give us

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Speaker 2: a big cup for Christmas year right, something like that? Anyway,

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Speaker 2: send me your ideas. Nineteen ninety two. Also this morning,

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Speaker 2: we're going to talk to our UK europe correspondent MI

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Speaker 2: five's boss is worried about assassinations and terra plots in England.

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Speaker 2: We're also talking the ocr and the Urupe who create

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Speaker 2: a lake is at its lowest temperature in five decades.

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Speaker 2: It's now just over the last twelve twenty four hours

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Speaker 2: hit eight degrees. Hasn't been eight degrees since nineteen seventy.

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Speaker 2: We shouldn't be worried because there's only a one percent

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Speaker 2: chance of an eruption, not that big of a deal

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Speaker 2: in the next three months. One percent, they say, that's

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Speaker 2: about the same comparable to the chance of being hit

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Speaker 2: by a car one percent. So you add those together,

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Speaker 2: there's a two percent chance of death if you're in

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Speaker 2: a pay who today it's like a weatherfull cast, but

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Speaker 2: for whether you're going to die. You're looking at a

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Speaker 2: two percent chance today if you're in there to a

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Speaker 2: pay who district. Chances are dying on a boat in

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Speaker 2: this country. By the way, you're looking at fifty to

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Speaker 2: fifty Blue Bridge Inter Islander Navy. Honestly, I wouldn't even

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Speaker 2: get on a canoe at this point twenty two to

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Speaker 2: six Bridge Rich. You're going to our reporters around the country,

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Speaker 2: Callum Proctors into needing this morning, Calum. Worry about farmers

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Speaker 2: after the floods.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, morning, Ryan, this has come from Federated Farmers. Look,

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Speaker 9: they're issuing a plea for any flood hit farmers to

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Speaker 9: reach out for help if they're struggling with their mental health.

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Speaker 9: They're raising concerns about the well being and morale of

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Speaker 9: those in Otago in Southend in particular, following some tough

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Speaker 9: times recently due to weather events. South And President Jason

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Speaker 9: Herricks says that in his patch it's been raining pretty

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Speaker 9: much consistently since April, which has left a lot of

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Speaker 9: farmers backling. He says, with more rain anticipated and morale

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Speaker 9: already low, it's important the rural community works together to

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Speaker 9: get through it, and he's encouraging those doing it tough

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Speaker 9: to pick up the phone and ask for help.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely. How's your weather, Callum?

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Speaker 9: You will look more rain on the way, some heavy

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Speaker 9: falls expected today easing this evening. We've got a strong

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Speaker 9: wind watch with northwest with southwest gales developing today's high twelve.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much. Clear is in christ Church this morning?

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Speaker 6: Clear?

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Speaker 2: The coronial inquest into the christ Church mosk attacks is

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Speaker 2: back underway.

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Speaker 4: That's right, Ryan, And how the man behind the terror

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Speaker 4: attack obtained a gun license is being dissected in the

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Speaker 4: Coroner's court from this week. This is part of the

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Speaker 4: second phase of the inquest into the fifty one deaths

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Speaker 4: on March fifteen, twenty nineteen. This particular phase looks specifically

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Speaker 4: at gun licensing processes, as well as the impact of

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Speaker 4: potential legislative loopholes at the time. Firearms experts Michael mcilraith

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Speaker 4: yesterday spoke of legislation being unfit for purpose, a lack

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Speaker 4: of training, and also pressures on vetting staff. The vetting

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Speaker 4: procedures were also being scrutinized, with mckilrath adding that the failure,

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Speaker 4: in his opinion, was when police deemed the gunmen to

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Speaker 4: be fit and proper and accepted his gun license application.

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Speaker 4: Witnesses involved more specifically with his application are set to

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Speaker 4: give evidence today.

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Speaker 2: Right, how's your weather today? Clear?

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Speaker 4: Starts fine, but a few afternoon and evening showers with

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Speaker 4: squarely thunderstorms possible. Westerly is turning southerly and the high

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Speaker 4: as eighteen.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, We're going to Wellington. MAXI is standing by Max.

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Speaker 2: Bordeaux Bakery is an institution. I love their bread in particular.

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Speaker 2: I mean I would go there on a Saturday morning.

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Speaker 2: They are along well, they've got three sites, but Thornton

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Speaker 2: Key and shutting down. What's the reason?

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Speaker 6: No?

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Speaker 10: I live just around then, from the same Bordeau Bakery

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Speaker 10: cafe on Thornton Key. And for how tragic this latest

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Speaker 10: closure is. It's seemed equally inevitable for months. You've had

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Speaker 10: disruptive roadworks taking place. At times, it's been difficult to

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Speaker 10: tell if Bordeau is even open. There's been a giant

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Speaker 10: safety fence outside, workers running heavy machinery. You're right, it's

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Speaker 10: an institution. It always seemed busy, and then it wasn't.

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Speaker 10: Bordeaux closing three sites, forty people out of work, thirty

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Speaker 10: years it's been family owned. Turnover during these roadworks was

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Speaker 10: down sixty to seventy percent, so says owner Tony Bates.

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Speaker 10: The council blamed for the roadworks, which aren't just opposed

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Speaker 10: by virtually every business on the stretch. They knew it

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Speaker 10: would affect access for customers but also major agencies like

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Speaker 10: fire and emergency. Bordeau wanted more support from the council,

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Speaker 10: or at least some support, and clearly didn't get it.

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Speaker 2: And part of the problem is cycle wise too. The

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Speaker 2: taking the parks out, isn't it the.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, a lots of car parks, you know, and say

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Speaker 10: we had the mayor in the studio a few weeks

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Speaker 10: ago sighting safety is the main reason for these seventeen

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Speaker 10: million dollar works. Thornton Key is one of the widest

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Speaker 10: roads in the city that safety has never been an issue.

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Speaker 10: I think our reporter did a deep dive into safety

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Speaker 10: issues on the street. One cyclist hit by injured in

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Speaker 10: recent times and that was from a pedestrian stepping out

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Speaker 10: onto the road. So I don't know where safeties come from.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 2: It's madness, do you know what. I have sympathy for

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Speaker 2: you Wellington, but if you re elect the same council

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Speaker 2: that you have just elected at the last election. You're

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Speaker 2: on your own, Okay, no more symphony from me, Max.

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Speaker 2: How's the weather?

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Speaker 10: The Independent Republic of Wellington mainly find today fourteen the

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Speaker 10: high end the city.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Neva's and Auckland, Hey, Neva, good morning.

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Speaker 2: Spike and dog euthanasia right, yes.

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Speaker 11: Now, Look, an Auckland council is saying there is a

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Speaker 11: spike in dog euthanasia rates. It's unkind but it is

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Speaker 11: a necessary reality. So the council figures they came out

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Speaker 11: yesterday and they show that more than twenty eight hundred

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Speaker 11: dog attacks they were reported in the past year. That's

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Speaker 11: a seventeen percent rise. For the first time since twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 11: more impounded Auckland dogs they've been euthanized than claim by owners.

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Speaker 11: So we've got that at four thousand compared to thirty

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Speaker 11: six hundred. Daniel Newman, he's the Auckland councilor, he's also

434
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Speaker 11: a dog a tech survivor. He says, oh wish this

435
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 11: wasn't the case. But addressing the roaming dogs and ensuring

436
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Speaker 11: animal safety, that's your top priority.

437
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 2: Yes, and weather today.

438
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 11: Well more grim news occasional rain, possibly heavy easing to

439
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 11: the odd shower. However, fine spells on the afternoon seventeen

440
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 11: is the high.

441
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Speaker 2: Brilliant Thanks Neva eighteen minutes away from six and fantastic

442
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Speaker 2: twoy billboard suggestions coming through and get to those shortly.

443
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Speaker 2: Also the OC big announcement today, What does it mean

444
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 2: for your mortgage? Could actually see your mortgage rates go up.

445
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 2: We'll tell you how that might work. Also, we're looking

446
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Speaker 2: at MI I five under pressure in the UK. You're

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465
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Speaker 1: Dot NZ International correspondence with Ens and Eye Insurance Peace

466
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Speaker 1: of Mind for New Zealand Business.

467
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Speaker 2: Gavin grays Our UK Europe Correspondent Gavin. The main suspect

468
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 2: in the medal in McCann case cleared over another one.

469
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 5: Yes, an unrelated trial, but one that will impact, I

470
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 5: think on instigations into the disappearance of Madeline McCann. So

471
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 5: Christian Brookner is his name. He's forty seven. He's been

472
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 5: acquitted of carrying out five offenses in Portugal between twenty

473
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 5: twenty seventeen. He is, however, already in prison serving a

474
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 5: seven year jail term in Germany for rape. Now. Brooker's

475
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 5: defense team argued he should be clear because of a

476
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 5: lack of evidence, and indeed the presiding judge said there

477
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 5: was insufficient evidence for a conviction and that some of

478
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 5: the witnesses were unreliable. Now that's important because Ryan, what

479
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 5: they're basically saying is that some of the potential witnesses

480
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 5: in the Madeline McCann disappearance case also the same witnesses. So,

481
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 5: in other words, there's a crossover here. And obviously if

482
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 5: the judge has found them unreliable in the first case,

483
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 5: if it were to come to court about Madeline McCann,

484
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 5: then it would be unlikely that he would change his

485
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 5: mind about the witnesses for that case. So it has

486
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 5: got an impact. We also believe that Brookner will be

487
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 5: in prison until the end of next September, and we

488
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 5: believe that the Germans who are investigating, along with the

489
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 5: Portuguese and the British detectives, are thinking their best way,

490
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,159
Speaker 5: their best hope of standing up a case against this

491
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 5: man is if he's still in prison and they are

492
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 5: able to detain him longer.

493
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 2: So if they don't priss charges over Medline mccairn, this

494
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 2: guy could walk next September.

495
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 5: Yeah. Absolutely, and that's the fear I think of many

496
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 5: that said. Of course, let me be clear you know,

497
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 5: there is nothing that we know that distinctly links him

498
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 5: to the Madeline McCann disappearance. But of course when she

499
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 5: disappeared as a young girl from Portugal, he had already

500
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 5: carried out. It was alleged these five offenses sexual offenses

501
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 5: of young people. However, as I said, he's been acquitted

502
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 5: of those charges.

503
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 2: All right, thanks so much for that, Kevin Gray, are

504
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 2: you correspondent with us? And very quickly? An update from

505
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 2: the MI five boss Ken McCallum, who has spoken to

506
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 2: journalists in London overnight. He says the revival of the

507
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 2: Islamic State in Afghanistan a big worry for them. They've

508
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 2: seen a big upswing in Britain seeking to travel aboard

509
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,679
Speaker 2: a broad rather to learn from this group. They're worried

510
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 2: about Islamic State. They're worried about Russia and Iran Ryan Bridge.

511
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 2: Right now, we're going to Sharon Zolner. This is the

512
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 2: ocr so big call today, all of our big banks

513
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: predicting fifty bases point cut, bringing it to four point

514
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 2: seventy five percent. There are also some slightly differing views.

515
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 2: Greg Smith from Devon Funds Management wants to see two

516
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 2: seventy five point cuts that would be one and a

517
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 2: half percent by Christmas. So what's going to happen do

518
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 2: we think? Sharon Zolner, the Ain's chief economist, is with

519
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 2: me this morning. Sharon, Good morning, good morning, Good to

520
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 2: have you on the show. What do you reckon about

521
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 2: the idea of a bigger cut than fifty.

522
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 6: All its rapidly become the default expectation. Actually, interestingly, back

523
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 6: in August, if you look at what the Reserve Bank

524
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 6: then thought they would do, they thought they'd cut twenty five.

525
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 6: That was implied by their forecasts, and they haven't actually

526
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 6: been a huge number of data stified since then. However,

527
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 6: was nonetheless ended up in a situation with I think

528
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 6: on the Bloomberg survey, eighteen out of twenty two economists

529
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 6: were picking a fifty point cut that no one was

530
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 6: picking a seventy five, and the market is certainly pricing

531
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 6: a fifty So that's certainly become the default. And the

532
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 6: single piece of data that was most important there was

533
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 6: the quarterly Serve Business Opinion, which showed sharply lower pricing

534
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 6: intention and other data that would suggest that the Reserve

535
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 6: Bank not necessarily will we revising the inflation forecasts down particularly,

536
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 6: but that they can have more more confidence in them,

537
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 6: more confidence that the job is done.

538
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, because that report that you were talking about it

539
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 2: said that, you know, activity and employment was weak currently,

540
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 2: but the outlook people were feeling optimistic about the future.

541
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 2: But the difference, the gap between the reality now and

542
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 2: the promised land of the few future is aging or

543
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 2: waving as magic wand isn't it.

544
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, Well, certainly in our Business Monthly Business survey, we

545
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 6: saw things lift the minute rates started to fall. It's

546
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 6: in dramatic in the business confidence at a ten year high.

547
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 6: Of course, it's something to say you think things will

548
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 6: be better in the future. It's enough to actually act

549
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 6: on those expectations and hire someone or make them investment.

550
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 6: So so the bar is a bit higher for that.

551
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 6: But I mean, it wouldn't that problem necessarily. If the

552
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 6: economy did redound faster than expected, it would be great

553
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 6: as long as that fall and inflation and inflation staying

554
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 6: within the band is baked in. But looking at that

555
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 6: Corterly surveyan's opinion, the Reserve Bank will have more confidence

556
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:43,479
Speaker 6: that there's lots of spare capacity in the labor market

557
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 6: and businesses and the machine sitting idle, et cetera, so

558
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 6: that we could have a lift in gross without inflation.

559
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 6: Regniting that said, it's not risk free because that in

560
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 6: both surveys, costs were still very very high terms of

561
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 6: saying that their margins has been squeezed. But there is

562
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 6: a scenario still where the economy rebounds quickly in firms

563
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 6: use that recovery and demand to push through the price

564
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 6: increases that have actually been wanting to do for ages

565
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 6: that haven't been.

566
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 2: Able to Yeah, okay, So final question, is there a

567
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 2: scenario here? Is there a possibility where the retail banks

568
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 2: have already priced in a fifty point cut fifty basis

569
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 2: point cut, the Reserve Bank comes out with twenty five

570
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 2: and retail banks have to increase mortgage rates again.

571
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 6: Well, twenty five point cut would be the surprise now,

572
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 6: and you would certainly see the swap rates, the wholesale

573
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 6: rates left I think on the day and then over

574
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,479
Speaker 6: sort of the one year horizon, because it's baking in

575
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 6: quite a lot of cuts, whether it's a mortgage rates rise, though,

576
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 6: I think I think there's still enough of a buffer

577
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 6: there that banks have instead of waiting to see most

578
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 6: banks so waiting to see what happens today. So obviously

579
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 6: I'm not part of those decisions, but you'd have to

580
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 6: I think you'd have to see a bigger surprise than

581
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 6: just at twenty five, because even if they just cut

582
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 6: twenty five, they're still rightly to concern that they're going

583
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 6: to keep cutting in the stage. True, you need to

584
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 6: see something quite extreme in the restoric, I think, suggesting

585
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 6: that they're getting very nervous about inflation. That would definitely

586
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 6: be one out of left field. That's not something anyone's anticipating.

587
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 2: Sharon z Oolner A and Z thanks so much for

588
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 2: your time. Just gone seven away from six. That announcement

589
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 2: due out at two o'clock this afternoon.

590
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 1: The first Word on the News of the Day early

591
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 1: edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City New Zealand's furniture

592
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: beds and a play at store News Talk ziby.

593
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 2: Five away from six News Talk z'd b Trish asked

594
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 2: for two wee billboards for Adrian Orr, and you have delivered.

595
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: Ryan Adrian Or is a better Reserve Bank governor than

596
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 2: Polki was an is surgeon. Ryan Adrianaor is good at

597
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 2: his job year right. Lots like that. There's interesting one

598
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 2: here about the government. It's October. Time to stop blaming

599
00:32:55,520 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 2: the previous government year right, and this one is not

600
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 2: to be billboard at all, but it's quite clever cut

601
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: Adrian or else.

602
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 1: Dry and Bridge.

603
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:10,959
Speaker 2: Mike's in the studio. Good morning, Mike morning.

604
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 3: We'll be talking about that obviously this morning, isn't it funny?

605
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 3: But no one seems to be mentioning the fact this

606
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 3: fifty seventy five fascination we seem to have. You do

607
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,479
Speaker 3: realize that a fifty or seventy five point cut is

608
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 3: simply tantamount to proof that they bug it up. It

609
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 3: shouldn't be that big. It should be small, it should

610
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 3: be gentle. It's called a soft landing. The whole idea

611
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 3: was you got us in and you got us out.

612
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, but a soft landing doesn't mean small incremental drops

613
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 2: as it does, well, no, it does. What a soft

614
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 2: landing means that we don't crash the economy and have

615
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 2: mass unemployment and that.

616
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 3: But that's the point. If he goes fifty or seventy

617
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 3: five today, what they're recognizing is that they've gone too far.

618
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 3: They're going hold on, what's it's cratering and we suddenly

619
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 3: need to go where we've got it, We understand it.

620
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 3: There's fifty, there's seventy five, so that all people go off.

621
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 2: But isn't it like for landing a plane. I mean

622
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 2: you'll have sends coming from different angles at different times,

623
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 2: and you've got a you've had a cross runway.

624
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 3: Shere is what you're saying there right exactly. Anyway, more

625
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 3: on that.

626
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 2: Shortly, brilliant Thanks Mike, have a great day everyone. I'll

627
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 2: see tomorrow.

628
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 1: For more from News Talk said B. Listen live on

629
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 1: air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever

630
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio