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Speaker 1: Right now, though, we're going to Westpac. The regional economic

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Speaker 1: roundup is out. This is the October report. It's a

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Speaker 1: bit of a mixed bag. It comes also as Greg

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Speaker 1: Smith from Devin Funds promotes an aggressive sledge hammer approach

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Speaker 1: to the OCR We've obviously got a cut coming tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: But how big will it be? He wants one and

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Speaker 1: a half percent off by Christmas? That would require seventy

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Speaker 1: five basis points tomorrow and seventy five basis points in November.

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Speaker 1: Ranchold is the Westpac senior economists with us this morning statistic.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Good morning Ryan.

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Speaker 1: First of all, do you think aggressive cuts like that

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Speaker 1: are required?

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Speaker 2: I think that the scope to cut the OCI pretty quickly,

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Speaker 2: but not at that sort of pace. While we've seen

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Speaker 2: that inflation's coming down, unemployed still high, and we've got

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Speaker 2: tired interest rate, so that makes the case to cutting

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Speaker 2: the OsO fast paced. We saw during the pandemic that

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Speaker 2: when you cut reads too quickly can't have unintended consequences.

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Speaker 2: It could risk supercharging the housing market. Be a different

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Speaker 2: problem for us altogether.

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Speaker 1: Let's look at your region a round up, HOSPO, retail bad,

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Speaker 1: Wellington bad. We expect those things we know those things.

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Speaker 1: What were you told about new hiring from businesses.

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Speaker 2: What we're hearing is that very few firms are looking

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Speaker 2: at taking on staff right now. Those pressures are seeing

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Speaker 2: in terms of demands means that they are more cautious

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Speaker 2: about taking on stuff and a lot of them have

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Speaker 2: actually been shedding workers recently.

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Speaker 1: Agriculture, tourism are they giving you a bit of hope.

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Speaker 2: They are the bright spots of the economy right now.

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Speaker 2: Tourism has been a boom for regions like Queen Sound.

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Speaker 2: We're also seeing some better prices for some of our

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Speaker 2: key experts. That's been welcome for some of our rural regions.

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Speaker 1: Southland. I noticed you mentioned Southland and the report that

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Speaker 1: they are coming off a little bit. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: SOUTHLM has seen some more mixed conditions recently. Spending there

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Speaker 2: has flattened off. But with a mix of conditions there,

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Speaker 2: especially that posmen in agri places, it's really looking a

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Speaker 2: bit more flat rather than weak.

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Speaker 1: All right, thanks sa much. Just finally that the North

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Speaker 1: South divide, who is more optimistic right now?

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Speaker 2: I think we are seeing some more positive conditions coming

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Speaker 2: through in the South Islands. They've got that mix of

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Speaker 2: tourism and agriculture as well as other industries helping to

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Speaker 2: support sentiment in the North Island. It was clearly a

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Speaker 2: weaker picture, especially in Wellington for those job whis is

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Speaker 2: being felt, as well as financial pressures right across the country.

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Speaker 1: Statists, thanks so much of your time, Satisha Ranchold with

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Speaker 1: US Westpac Senior Economists.

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