1 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: Kyota. 2 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Iran is 4 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 2: warning against US ground invasion as regional leaders ramp up 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:26,760 Speaker 2: diplomatic efforts. It comes as the USS Tripoli carrying three thousand, 6 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 2: five hundred US service members arrived in the Middle East 7 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 2: at the weekend. All of this while Pakistan said it 8 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 2: is prepared to host US Iran talks after meeting with 9 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 2: foreign ministers from Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. 10 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 1: But what are the chances of peace in the Middle East? 11 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: How do we achieve it? And how long will this 12 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 1: war last? Today on the front page, University of Otago. 13 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 2: Peace Studies Professor Richard Jackson is with us to take 14 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 2: us through the latest and what could happen next? 15 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: So, Richard, apparently the. 16 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 2: Pentagon is planning for weeks of ground operations in Iran, 17 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 2: though US President Donald Trump has not yet approved any 18 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 2: kind of deployment. 19 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 1: All the while, Iran is warning the. 20 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 2: US against boots on the ground. So what is the 21 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 2: likelihood of US seeing boots on the ground. 22 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 3: Well, I think what we've got to keep in mind 23 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 3: is that this war is not being prosecuted on a 24 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 3: planned basis. It's kind of an ad hoc on the 25 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:39,639 Speaker 3: fly type of operation. You know, the US expected certain 26 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 3: things that simply haven't happened, and so they've got no 27 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 3: backup plan. And I think in fact what's happened is 28 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 3: that the negative fallout of Iran's response is starting to 29 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 3: put pressure on the US, and so they're kind of 30 00:01:56,840 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 3: scrambling around to think, well, what can we do. One 31 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 3: thing they could do is try to come up with 32 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 3: some kind of deal that would make it look like 33 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 3: they have achieved their goals. Another is, well, let's put 34 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 3: troops in there and see if we can secure the 35 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 3: straits of Hormos to relieve pressure on the global economy. 36 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 3: But in reality, they've just got no proper plan. In 37 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 3: many ways, it's much much worse than what happened in 38 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 3: Iraq in two thousand and three, when they planned an 39 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:34,639 Speaker 3: initial invasion but had no plan for what came after that. 40 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 3: And the same thing has happened again. It's very typical 41 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 3: of Western intervention in the Middle East. Let's do an intervention, 42 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 3: but let's not pay any attention to the experts, or 43 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 3: to the analysts, or to any predictions about what may 44 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 3: happen afterwards, and this is exactly what's happened. A whole 45 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 3: series of very uncomfortable and unpredictable things have happened, which 46 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 3: have put the US and Israel and others in a corner. 47 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 3: And I think, yeah, this is just going to be 48 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 3: lurching from one disaster to another. I think if they 49 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 3: put troops on the ground, there's a real risk there 50 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:18,519 Speaker 3: that this will will suit the Iranians because they'll be 51 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 3: able to attack in guerrilla style warfare against the US, 52 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 3: and the US could get dragged into a similar kind 53 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 3: of quagmire that it got dragged into in Iraq and 54 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 3: Afghanistan and other places around the world. So yeah, you know, 55 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 3: I think Trump is so unpredictable that he could think that, look, 56 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 3: if I just put in a few troops there, that 57 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 3: will turn the tide of this. But he's you know, 58 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 3: that's just making a huge mistake. 59 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 2: Well yeah, and the fact of the matter is that 60 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 2: Aroun wants troops on the ground because it does thrive 61 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 2: in that kind of chaos. Do you think Trump has 62 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 2: seriously overreestmated his superiority. I suppose in giving Iran, say 63 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 2: forty eight hours, then oh, note five days. 64 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: Then owner I think it's ten days now. 65 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 3: Look, I think both Israel and the US seriously underestimated Iran, 66 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 3: who have spent the last you know, thirty or forty 67 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 3: years watching the US in Afghanistan, in Iraq, watching Israel 68 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 3: in South Lebanon and in Gaza, and trying to work out, well, 69 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 3: what would we do if they attacked us? And they've 70 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 3: got a plan, They're not stupid, and they've got the 71 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:42,599 Speaker 3: weaponry and that you know, they've got a strategic kind 72 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 3: of goal, which is to make the international economy hurt 73 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 3: so much from the response that this will prove to 74 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 3: be a deterrent in the future as well. So Iran's 75 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 3: not just thinking about well, how do we survive this war, 76 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 3: but how do we prevent our country being attacked again 77 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 3: in future? Well, what we do is we attack all 78 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 3: the golf countries, we attack the Straits of hor Moos, 79 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 3: we attack oil supplies, energy from the Middle East. They'll 80 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 3: never dare attack us again if we can destroy all that, 81 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:17,039 Speaker 3: and they, you know, they're succeeding at the moment. And 82 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 3: I think, you know, Trump was incredibly naive, and so 83 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 3: is Israel in thinking that if we just smash them 84 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 3: a bit hard with our air power, you know, people 85 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 3: will revolt, the regime will collapse, or they'll beg for 86 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 3: a peace deal and so on and so forth. But 87 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 3: in actual fact, what it's done is it's hardened the resolve. 88 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 3: I think of the Iranian regime. They've now got their 89 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 3: plans that they've been preparing for decades, and they're putting 90 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 3: them into practice, and it seems to be sort of 91 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 3: generally working in the sense that real pressure is going 92 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:57,679 Speaker 3: on the global economy and indirectly then on the US 93 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 3: and Israel, who started this war without any kind of 94 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 3: long term plan or any kind of alternative to what 95 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:10,559 Speaker 3: happens if Iran doesn't fold, what happens if they don't 96 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 3: given what happens if they do manage to fight back 97 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 3: and show some real strategic depth. I think we've heard 98 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 3: that Trump was warned about how Iran would close the 99 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 3: straits of hor moves and this would affect global war supplies, 100 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 3: but he just dismissed that, And I mean that's typical 101 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 3: of his kind of foreign policy making anyway, so we 102 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:38,919 Speaker 3: shouldn't be surprised at that. But yeah, Iran will I 103 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 3: think not care at all and will perhaps even welcome 104 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 3: it if the US does decide to put troops on 105 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 3: the ground. And one thing to remember is that these 106 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 3: are very small numbers of troops. I mean, the US 107 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 3: has fifty thousand troops in the Middle East at the moment. 108 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 3: This might go up by a few thousand, but that's 109 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 3: thing compared to the one hundred and sixty thousand that 110 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 3: they sent into Iraq, and Iran's a much bigger country 111 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 3: and much more powerful than Iraq was at that time. 112 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 3: So I'm not sure even sure what they think they're 113 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 3: going to achieve with that few number of troops. And 114 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 3: certainly they haven't had all the sort of two years 115 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 3: of planning or even six months of planning that normally 116 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 3: goes into a major invasion. So yeah, to me, it 117 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 3: just seems incredibly poorly thought out. 118 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 2: And pointless well really ad hocky, you know, just reactionary 119 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 2: rather than actual planning involved. Pakistan has says that it 120 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 2: will host talks between Iran and the US. Is Pakistan 121 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 2: a good mediator do you think? 122 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 3: Look, I'm not sure anyone's a good mediator at the moment. 123 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 3: I mean, the challenges for mediation here are that there 124 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 3: is no trust anymore between and the US, largely because 125 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 3: during the last round of negotiations, that was when the 126 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 3: US attacked, And that is kind of such a violation 127 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 3: to say, let's have peace talks and then to attack 128 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 3: during the peace talks, but then also to try and 129 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 3: assassinate the country's leaders. So we want to talk to you, 130 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 3: but we're going to try and kill you as well. 131 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 3: These sorts of actions are totally antithetical to peaceful resolution 132 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 3: through diplomacy, and I think, you know, the US in 133 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 3: that sense has completely destroyed the possibility or it's seriously 134 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 3: undermined the chances of honest negotiations and real peace talks. 135 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 3: So I think any peace talks are going to be 136 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 3: incredibly difficult and incredibly fractured. Now, Pakistan might be a 137 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 3: good country because in the past they've had a good 138 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 3: relationship with the US, they're in Islamic country, They've probably 139 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 3: got a relationship with Iran. But I mean, who can 140 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 3: really control the unpredictable United States? And also the United 141 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 3: States is really paying a lot of attention to Israel. 142 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 3: I think Israel had convinced them to attack in the 143 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 3: first place. And if Israel is kind of whispering in 144 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 3: the US's ear during this. That's also going to add 145 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 3: an unstable element to any kind of negotiations because Israel 146 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 3: has different interests to the US. Israel wants conflict and 147 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 3: instability in Iran. They want to create a country that's 148 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 3: unable to focus on anything external but is entirely focused 149 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 3: on internal problems because yeah, it suits them strategically to 150 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 3: be surrounded by a whole series of countries that are 151 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 3: basically in civil war. So they you know, they don't 152 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 3: want any negotiations that are going to lead to sanctions 153 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 3: being taken off Iran, to you know, international inspections and 154 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 3: to stability, because that would then give Iran a chance 155 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 3: to rebuild and strengthen its military capabilities again and get 156 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 3: its governance back together. So I think that's another unstable 157 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 3: element in any kind of negotiations that might be taking place. 158 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 3: So I don't have a lot of optimism about negotiations. 159 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 3: I think, you know, the best chance is that maybe Trump, 160 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 3: for domestic reasons or for other reasons, decides he's had 161 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 3: enough and he just declares victory and stops. I think, 162 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 3: you know, that's probably the best hope that we. 163 00:10:53,480 --> 00:11:05,079 Speaker 4: Have they now have the chance that is around to 164 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:08,679 Speaker 4: permanently abandon their nuclear ambitions and to charge a new 165 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:09,320 Speaker 4: path forward. 166 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 3: We'll see if they want to do it. If they don't, 167 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 3: we're their worse nightmare. 168 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 4: In the meantime, we'll just keep blowing them away, unimpeded, unstopped. Well, 169 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 4: there's not a thing they can do about it. They 170 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:24,959 Speaker 4: can't do anything about it, you know, I'll tell you 171 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 4: if they could, if they could, you'd be hearing about it. 172 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 3: You'd be hearing about it. You don't hear anything about. 173 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: It on the nuclear weapons front. Do you think the. 174 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 2: Weapons of mass destruction line will work on the US public? 175 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 3: Again, I really don't think so. I mean, I think 176 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 3: what we're seeing, you know, right across the world, but 177 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 3: also you know, including in US public opinion from the 178 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 3: demonstrations we saw yesterday in the No Kings demonstrations, but 179 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 3: also so you know the Pope's recent statement. What we're 180 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 3: seeing all over the place is a general condemnation of this. 181 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:11,679 Speaker 3: Most people can see that this war was not warranted. 182 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 3: You know, most people you know who know anything at 183 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:19,200 Speaker 3: all about this knows that Iran was nowhere near developing 184 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 3: nuclear weapons. And even if they did, it would purely 185 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 3: be for de terrence because they know, as the rest 186 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 3: of the world knows, that if you have nuclear weapons, 187 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 3: like North Korea, that you're not going to get invaded, 188 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 3: and they just don't want to get invaded. So in fact, 189 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:42,239 Speaker 3: this invasion, this attack has, if you like, quadrupled Iran's 190 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:45,839 Speaker 3: incentive to develop nuclear weapons because. 191 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 2: They look at North Korea and they think, well, everyone's 192 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 2: leaving them alone. 193 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 3: Absolutely. Yeah, So this is the logic. I've got nuclear weapons, 194 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 3: no one would dare attack me. They're attacking me because 195 00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 3: I haven't got nuclear weapons, right That's what happened to Iraq, 196 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 3: That's what happened to Afghanistan, That's what's happening to Iran 197 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 3: right now. It's what's happened to Lebanon. Everywhere that's not 198 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 3: got nuclear weapons gets attacked. So I think in some 199 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 3: ways this has had the opposite effect, and I think 200 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 3: in the years after this, Iran may accelerate its nuclear 201 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 3: program unless we can get back to the agreement that 202 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 3: was there before Trump got rid of it, the Obama 203 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 3: era agreement where Iran was adhering to the low levels 204 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 3: of enrichment and to regular inspections of its nuclear program. 205 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 3: So yeah, look, I think most people know this, and 206 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 3: most people are demonstrating and expressing opinions against this war. 207 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 3: And certainly as it begins to really affect the global 208 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 3: economy and people all over the world start to suffer 209 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 3: from this economically and socially because of that, I think, 210 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,680 Speaker 3: you know, there's going to be more and more anger 211 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 3: against them. 212 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:07,319 Speaker 2: I've seen that Iran has launched a volunteer campaign. It's 213 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:12,560 Speaker 2: titled Homeland Defender Fighters for Iran. It's currently accepting participants 214 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 2: aged twelve and older, according to local media. CNN reported 215 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 2: that the roles include operational patrols and checkpoint duties. Does 216 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 2: this poke a hole I. 217 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: Suppose in Iran's otherwise kind of steely exterior. Are they 218 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: starting to get worried or do they just not care? 219 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 3: I really I'm not sure how to interpret that, except 220 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 3: to say that maybe you know, they're preparing potentially for 221 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 3: a ground invasion. If they think that a ground invasion 222 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 3: is possible, you know, sort of mobilizing ordinary people to 223 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 3: form guerrilla style resistance, as we saw in Iraq, for example, 224 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 3: and Afghanistan. I mean, yeah, maybe that's the warning. Maybe 225 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 3: the warning is you you know, you invade if you like, 226 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 3: but everybody here is going to be prepared for that, 227 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 3: and you're going to be facing what you face in Iraq. 228 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 3: That could be the case. I mean, you know, I've 229 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 3: heard in other contexts. When I went to Taiwan a 230 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 3: couple of years ago, people said, yeah, yeah, we're not 231 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 3: worried about the Chinese invading because if they invade, we'll 232 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 3: fight like the Taliban, you know. And for them, the 233 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 3: lesson was that if you if you fight like the Taliban, 234 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 3: you know, sort of these guerrilla style attacks over a 235 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 3: twenty year period, you will eventually defeat the superpower. And 236 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 3: you know, there's there's something to that because I think 237 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 3: if you look at the history of the superpowers, they 238 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 3: don't win wars anymore. They haven't won any wars since 239 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 3: you know, Vietnam, despite all their technological advancement. Once you 240 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 3: get troops on the ground, all it takes is, you know, 241 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 3: you just have to kill one US soldier a week 242 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 3: for five years, and eventually the superpower will give up 243 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 3: and go home. And you know, that's how people are thinking. 244 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 5: Some forceful words opposing that war. In Poplio's Palm Sunday 245 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 5: mass this weekend. Speaking to the faithful in Saint Peter's Square, 246 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:39,360 Speaker 5: the pontiff said God quote doesn't listen to the prayers 247 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 5: of those who make war end quote. He spoke of 248 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 5: Jesus as the king of peace and blasted those who 249 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 5: cite God to justify violence. He also offered special blessings 250 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 5: for Christians in the Middle East spending Holy Days in 251 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 5: the middle of the conflict. 252 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 6: If Everrun does manage to kind of I suppose win 253 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 6: winning would be them still being in leadership once all 254 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 6: of this is said and done. 255 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,679 Speaker 2: What other groups around the world do you think are 256 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 2: looking quite closely and learning so, I. 257 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 3: Mean, I think that's just a it's not specific, but 258 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 3: I think there's a broader process that's occurred here, and 259 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,199 Speaker 3: this is actually a longer running trend, if you like. 260 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 3: And I think in actual fact, the big event is 261 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:37,880 Speaker 3: not whether or not Iran holds off this combined US 262 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 3: Israel attack and comes out of it, you know, with 263 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:47,439 Speaker 3: its government intact and its society intact and able to 264 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 3: dictate some terms, because it controls the straits of moves 265 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 3: and can still inflict damage on the international economy. I 266 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 3: think it actually goes back to the US humiliating withdrawal 267 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 3: from Afghanistans where we saw you know, those chaot vaccines, 268 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 3: very reminiscent of the Chaot VC scenes when the US 269 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 3: withdrew from Vietnam. That proved to the entire world that 270 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 3: you can be the world superpower and you can go 271 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 3: to the poorest country in the world and pour in 272 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 3: trillions of dollars, literally trillions of dollars, hundreds of thousands 273 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 3: of troops, have all the latest technology and still end 274 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 3: up being defeated by the Taliban who drive around with 275 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,920 Speaker 3: pickup trucks and have aks. I mean, those guys had 276 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 3: no satellites, no heavy artillery, no technology, but they still 277 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:50,919 Speaker 3: defeated the world's superpower. Now, everyone looked at that, I 278 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 3: think across the world and said, yeah, the US thinks 279 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 3: it has power because it can deploy you know, high 280 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 3: time military technology anywhere on the planet and it can 281 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:07,679 Speaker 3: blow up some stuff. But it can't translate that power 282 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 3: into anything real. It can't change a country's leadership, it 283 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 3: can't bring democracy, it can't bring security, it can't force 284 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 3: people to do what it wants. Really, it's a kind 285 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 3: of a paper tiger now, and I think, you know 286 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 3: that's being sort of proven again, I guess in this 287 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 3: case where Iran is proving to be incredibly defiant despite 288 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 3: the fact that they're getting horrendously bombed every day, I 289 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 3: think it's been proven as well in Gaza. You know, 290 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 3: if you look at what happened in Gaza, Israel dropped 291 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 3: the equivalent of six nuclear bombs on that tiny little 292 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,360 Speaker 3: region and at the very end of it, Hamas came 293 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,639 Speaker 3: out and said, we're still here. You haven't defeated us, 294 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 3: We've beaten you. Right, Israel is going to find the 295 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 3: same thing in southern Lebanon with Hasbola. They've had five 296 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 3: or six major wars with Hasbela, never been able to 297 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 3: defeat them. They always come back. I mean, military power 298 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 3: doesn't work anymore, particularly when you can just weaponize a 299 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 3: drone that you buy on Amazon. And you know, wars 300 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 3: are now fought in these kind of low tech ways 301 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 3: and it's much more about inflicting little pinpricks on your enemy. 302 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 3: And if you just do that for ten twenty years, 303 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 3: if you've got the resolve, you can defeat a superpower. 304 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 1: So what does work then, diplomacy? How do we do that? 305 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,920 Speaker 2: I mean, how do you negotiate with the Iranian regime, 306 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:58,920 Speaker 2: who quite famously kills its own population and doesn't care 307 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 2: whether a school or hospital gets blown up. Who is currently, 308 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 2: you know, restricting access to the Internet to the entire 309 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:12,879 Speaker 2: population of Iran. And there are Iran people who fear 310 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 2: that they could be the next North Korea. I saw 311 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 2: a quote from an AFP reporter who said they spoke 312 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,640 Speaker 2: to someone saying that they do fear that they could 313 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 2: be the next North Korea and the Internet won't be 314 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,880 Speaker 2: turned back on. How do you negotiate with someone like that. 315 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, you know, it's a horrendous regime. It's very authoritarian. 316 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 3: But what we know from history is that the more 317 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:40,640 Speaker 3: you attack authoritarian regimes, the more authoritarian they tend to become, right, 318 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:46,479 Speaker 3: And I think, you know, it's a self defeating process 319 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 3: in a sense to try and use force, particularly when 320 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 3: it's never really worked. You know, it's like that definition 321 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 3: of insanity where you keep doing the same thing over 322 00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 3: and over again expecting a different result. We've got to 323 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 3: think about how many times external intervention has been undertaken 324 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 3: by the US and its allies in the Middle East 325 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:11,879 Speaker 3: but also elsewhere, and how often that's resulted in a 326 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 3: positive change. It hasn't. You can't think of the examples. 327 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 3: It just doesn't really work. What tends to work sometimes 328 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 3: takes twenty thirty, forty fifty years, but it has to 329 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 3: come from within. So the Soviet Union collapsed due to 330 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 3: pressure from below. East Germany collapsed when people rose up 331 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 3: and started disobeying. During the Arab Spring, we saw a 332 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:46,200 Speaker 3: great many authoritarian regimes across the Arab world overthrow their 333 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:50,919 Speaker 3: authoritarian governments. I mean it wasn't supported fully afterwards, and 334 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:55,160 Speaker 3: many of them have gone back to authoritarianism. But this 335 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 3: is the point, is that nonviolent resistance by ordinary people 336 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:05,160 Speaker 3: has a much higher success rate of bringing democracy. Think 337 00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 3: of all those countries across Eastern Europe that over through 338 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 3: their governments. There are a whole bunch of countries across 339 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 3: Africa that over through their governments and created more democratic states. 340 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 3: That has a much higher rate of success than external coercion, pressure, 341 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 3: military action and so on. Those type of actions tend 342 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 3: not to work, and they tend to actually cause more 343 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 3: suffering and make it harder for people because you get 344 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 3: situations like this where the authorities, in order to try 345 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 3: and protect themselves from civil disorder, cut off the internet, 346 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,360 Speaker 3: you know, put more people on the streets to try 347 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 3: and stop any shows of disloyalty and so on and 348 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 3: so forth, it becomes more oppressive. So I think, ye know, yeah, 349 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,639 Speaker 3: Western States, if they genuinely do want to bring about 350 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 3: peace and democracy and authoritarian regimes like Iran, and you know, 351 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 3: I don't think those are the real motives here. I mean, 352 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,320 Speaker 3: we're kidding ourselves if we think that's what America is 353 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 3: trying to do or Israel. But if they really did 354 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,120 Speaker 3: care about that, there are a whole bunch of other 355 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 3: things that they could do that wouldn't involve this kind 356 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 3: of pressure, but would involve supporting civil society, perhaps easing sanctions, 357 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,719 Speaker 3: trying to increase the number of kind of connections that 358 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:36,720 Speaker 3: people have with the outside world, cultural exchanges, dialogue and negotiation, 359 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 3: or you know, a whole range of different things. 360 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,200 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Richard. 361 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:41,679 Speaker 3: My pleasure. 362 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You 363 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 364 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 2: at enzidhrald dot co dot nz. The Front Page is 365 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 2: hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels. 366 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:00,719 Speaker 1: Caine Dickie is our studio operator. 367 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 2: Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and our executive producer. 368 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:06,120 Speaker 1: Is Jane Ye. 369 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 2: Follow the front page on the iHeart app or wherever 370 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:09,920 Speaker 2: you get your. 371 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: Podcasts, and join us next time for another look beyond 372 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:14,880 Speaker 1: the headlines.