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Speaker 1: New numbers around people in jail, tough and new sentencing

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Speaker 1: laws that you're well aware of, of course. So the

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Speaker 1: suggestion is our prison population could potentially grow about thirty

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Speaker 1: six percent over the next ten years. There will be

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Speaker 1: fourteen thousand prisoners. It would be the result of these

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Speaker 1: three strike laws, capping of the sentencing discounts, all that

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Speaker 1: sort of stuff. Anyway, Lee Marsh is the commissioner a

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Speaker 1: Custodical Services at Corrections and is with us Lee morning, Oh,

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Speaker 1: good by mine. How rock solid are these numbers? So

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Speaker 1: therefore you as a department go, well, we're locked into

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Speaker 1: those numbers. Therefore we need to build this sort of

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Speaker 1: sized facility or spend this amount of money.

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Speaker 2: That's an interesting question. How rock solid ali these are

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Speaker 2: projections and their ten year projections. So if you heart

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Speaker 2: back to a year ago from the twenty four to

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Speaker 2: thirty four projection, it was around three thousand lower than

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Speaker 2: this projection. So they do ebb and flow each time,

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Speaker 2: but they are the basis in which we plan our estate.

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Speaker 2: We do catch that a little bit reality and make

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Speaker 2: sure that we have in a buffer to wear a

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Speaker 2: lot of this variability. If you recall back in March

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Speaker 2: twenty eighteen. We were other ten eight hundred prisoners back then,

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Speaker 2: and we've had a substantial drop since and then a

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Speaker 2: substantial rise. So over the years we do experience this

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Speaker 2: this ebb and flow. But we're in a really good

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Speaker 2: place right now.

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Speaker 1: You make a very good point, Hess at about ten

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Speaker 1: ish thousand, does that still the case?

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Speaker 2: Well, this morning we are six hundred and forty three

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Speaker 2: at unlock, five hundred and sixty three of those are

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Speaker 2: on site.

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Speaker 1: So over a decade does an increase of less than

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Speaker 1: four thousand really that many? Presumably also including the fact

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Speaker 1: that population is going to.

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Speaker 2: Increase well in relation to the growth over ten years,

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Speaker 2: that really lines up with our bill program, so we

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Speaker 2: plan for that. In relation to the general population increase, well,

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Speaker 2: that depends on a whole raft of things, such as

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Speaker 2: government policies, societal norms, perceptions on crime and punishment. So

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Speaker 2: that's a little bit out of our control, and that's

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Speaker 2: that's up to the kind of ebb of community and society.

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Speaker 1: Really are we outliers and putting people in jail? Last

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Speaker 1: I always look, the Americans put a lot of people

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Speaker 1: in jail. We put quite a few people in jail,

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Speaker 1: and we is that the norm? So to speak.

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Speaker 2: It's difficult comparison to make, so you will always find

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Speaker 2: countries that put less people in prison than us. You

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Speaker 2: will always find countries that put more people in prison

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Speaker 2: for their population than us. But it all depends on

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Speaker 2: the kind of the foundations of your criminal justice system

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Speaker 2: and how certain mechanisms in it are applied. So I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't say we're an outlier.

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Speaker 1: No good on your late Appreciate the insight. Lee Marsho's

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Speaker 1: the Commission of for a Custodial Services at Corrections with us.

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Speaker 1: For more from the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to

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