1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:05,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to a shares These podcast, Perhaps if you 2 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: can give us an idea of what you think the 3 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: demand is for electricity, I mean the likes of data 4 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: centers and you know, worldwide, not. 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 2: Just New Zealand. You know, it just seems like we 6 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 2: need more and more. 7 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: But what sort of stats can you offer for that? 8 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, so the global picture is quite interesting. So globally 9 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 2: we've traditionally grown energy electricity demand by about two and 10 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 2: a half percent per annum, but over the past year 11 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:36,559 Speaker 2: that's really tipped up, so it's almost double that in 12 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 2: a year. AI. It's a combination of a few things, 13 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 2: so AI is definitely a driver, but also the cost 14 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 2: of solar and the access to that, particularly in emerging economies, 15 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 2: has driven you know, rapid electrification in India, and then 16 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 2: China is going gangbusters electrifying and you know, is really 17 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 2: an electro state now and a real pioneer of you know, 18 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:14,119 Speaker 2: rapid deployment of renewables. And also they manufacture so much 19 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 2: of the of the products that go across the electricity 20 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 2: supply chain as well. So the global picture for electricity 21 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 2: is growth. The New Zealand picture is more complicated. So 22 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 2: you know, most listeners will have been aware that over 23 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 2: the past year we've had significant struggles in terms of 24 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 2: security of supply. But on top of that, we've had 25 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: really high prices since really about twenty eighteen they kicked up, 26 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 2: and as a result of that, you know, we've had 27 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 2: quite flat demand. So and even last year it declined 28 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 2: because we were asking large consumers to curtail their usage. 29 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 2: But I think we should be more optimistic about the 30 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 2: about what future the future, and you know that if 31 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 2: we can build enough generation to service the demand, then 32 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:25,399 Speaker 2: you know, there we should be realizing a significant increase 33 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 2: in it. So we already know that there there's you know, 34 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 2: between half a gig and a gig depends who you 35 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 2: talk to. With the data centers sitting there to be 36 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:43,799 Speaker 2: built before twenty thirty, so that's pretty soon. So when 37 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 2: you think if we've got that much data center load, 38 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 2: then in terms of the new renewables to match off, 39 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 2: we need you know, if it's GUO, they're all an 40 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 2: exact match, but if it's wind and solar, then we 41 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 2: need about you know, four times the capacity of whatever's 42 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 2: coming on to be built. So there's the opportunity to 43 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 2: realize those that growth from data centers. We will continue 44 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 2: to get some increase from the residential space, and that 45 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:22,239 Speaker 2: will be driven by the rate of house builds. So 46 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 2: we see, you know, every house that gets built that 47 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 2: will edge consumption and the rate at which they electrified 48 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 2: their transport. So yeah, if you buy an EV that 49 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 2: will add kind of twenty to thirty percent more consumption 50 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 2: onto your household. So I think if we get the 51 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 2: clean car discount back that ages. Yeah, we saw that 52 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 2: that when that discount was in place. We did see 53 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 2: the rapid more rapid adoption of vb's, but that's really 54 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 2: plateaus recently, and I think also the economic climate impacts that. 55 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 2: And the other thing is we're also saying that many 56 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 2: households are quite cost constraint conscious, so actual residential consumption 57 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 2: on averages is pretty flat, but it's that new build 58 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 2: that's adding to the system as well. Investing involves the 59 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 2: risk you might lose the money you start with. We 60 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 2: recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. We also recommend 61 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,679 Speaker 2: reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest.