1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Israel's Defense Force says it has begun a quote limited 2 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: localized ground defensive against his baller targets in southern Lebanon, 3 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,000 Speaker 1: opening a new front in the Middle East conflict. The 4 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: IDF release a statement saying it's targets were located in 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,640 Speaker 1: villages close to the border that posed an immediate threat 6 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:22,760 Speaker 1: to Israeli communities. International relations expert from Otago University, Robert Patman, 7 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: is with us this evening. Just how significant is this, Robert, Oh. 8 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:29,159 Speaker 2: Good any Jack. I think it's very significant, and it 9 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:32,520 Speaker 2: shows what many people fear that the gals a conflict, 10 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 2: which is at the root of the problem at the moment, 11 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: always had the potential to culminate in a wider regional war, 12 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:41,279 Speaker 2: and will begin to see this now. And the interesting 13 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 2: thing is, if you look at the Israeli in cursion today, 14 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: it's quite similar to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon June 15 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:53,279 Speaker 2: eighty two, in that both that they both had their 16 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 2: roots in the Palestinian Israeli conflict, much as the fighting 17 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 2: does between has Bulla and Israel today, and that is 18 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 2: really the root of the problem. It seems to me, what. 19 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 1: Kind of retaliation should we expect from Hisbola. 20 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 2: Well, it's clearly been I think severely degraded by the 21 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 2: pummeling they've taken. They've been on the receiving end of 22 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 2: exploding communications devices as well as air strikes. They've lost 23 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 2: their leader. So yes, I think they're going to be 24 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 2: militarily in retreat, but there's not a military you know. 25 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 2: Gat Ever, greater applications of military power is not going 26 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 2: to solve the political problem that Israel faces and you know, 27 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 2: for the next six months. I think Israel, with its backing, 28 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 2: generous backing from the most powerful country in world, the 29 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 2: United States, has the upper hand against groups like the 30 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 2: Whotis has Bulla and of course in Gaza. But that 31 00:01:56,440 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 2: is also particularly the loss of civilians in Lebanon as 32 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 2: well as the loss of civilians in Gaza is fueling 33 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 2: anti Israeli feelings which you know are going to have 34 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 2: long term consequences. 35 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:14,399 Speaker 1: Unfortunately, is this still concern about Iran getting involved? How 36 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 1: likely is that? 37 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 2: It can't be ruled out? But I think the Iranians 38 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 2: have been very cautious so far around although it's a 39 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:27,639 Speaker 2: big power, big in regional terms, a country of more 40 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 2: than one hundred million it's certainly supporting groups like the 41 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 2: Whoties and has Bulla, and I think it will certainly 42 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 2: try to, if you like, support these proxy groups or 43 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: partner groups, depending on your terminology. I don't think it 44 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 2: would want to get directly involved, and it would probably 45 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 2: recognize that if it did get directly involved in the 46 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 2: United States might escalate its own involvement from going from 47 00:02:56,200 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 2: a generous supporter of Israel to actually involved itself. So 48 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 2: I think both ironically, both Iran and America want to 49 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 2: stay out of this escalating situation. But as we've seen 50 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 2: jack with previous conflicts, it's not the intentions of the 51 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 2: parties that determine events. Sometimes events have, if you like, 52 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 2: become inadvertent that conflicts, you know, do not always go 53 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 2: according the plan, and the fog of war occurs and 54 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 2: we get unintended consequences. And this is what is so 55 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 2: dangerous about this situation, with Israel effectively invading a sovereign country, 56 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 2: bombing the capital against terror targets. But this has far 57 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 2: reaching consequences, and you know, the experience of Israel in 58 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 2: nineteen eighty two must be sobering. Hes Bulla was born 59 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 2: out of the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and now it's 60 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:57,119 Speaker 2: re entered Lebanon to deal with you know, the leadership 61 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 2: of Hesbulla, which had its origins in the previous incursion. 62 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: Thanks for your time and expertise, as always we appreciate it. 63 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: That is Professor Robert Pateman from Otago University. For more 64 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 1: from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks. 65 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast 66 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.