1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,360
Speaker 1: If you're old enough. We end the week with the

2
00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:03,199
Speaker 1: back to the future moment. Is the idea of Carlos

3
00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:05,000
Speaker 1: Days has once again being floated as a way to

4
00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:07,600
Speaker 1: deal with the oil issues. The Petroleum Demand Restraint Act

5
00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:10,239
Speaker 1: gave us Caldus days under Muldoon. How close are we

6
00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:13,360
Speaker 1: to being back in the seventies, and Nichola Willis, Finance Minister,

7
00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:14,520
Speaker 1: is with us morning.

8
00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:15,800
Speaker 2: Good morning, Mike.

9
00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 1: Are you walking a fine line between reality and panicking

10
00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:20,520
Speaker 1: people with this sort of talk?

11
00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:25,560
Speaker 2: Yes, we are, because the fine line here is that

12
00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:29,400
Speaker 2: we right now have few days with a fuel supply.

13
00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:33,080
Speaker 2: We're in Woodstead, but we do need to be proactively

14
00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:36,720
Speaker 2: thinking a heat. So if we start seeing shipmentths that

15
00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:43,280
Speaker 2: fuel importers have ordered being disrupted turning around issues like that,

16
00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,239
Speaker 2: then we know that we may have a problem some

17
00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,920
Speaker 2: weeks or months down the track. And so we're being proactive.

18
00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:52,240
Speaker 2: We're considering what are the steps that we would then

19
00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,200
Speaker 2: kick into and how do we need to approach that.

20
00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,600
Speaker 2: I want to be clear, though we've published a national

21
00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:02,480
Speaker 2: fuel plan last year. It has seven cascating phases. The

22
00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:06,480
Speaker 2: extreme kind of demand management tool of Carlos Days or

23
00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:09,480
Speaker 2: the like is right at the end of that escalating list,

24
00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:11,440
Speaker 2: and we're only in phase one or two at the moment,

25
00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,720
Speaker 2: which is around the industry leading its management, the government

26
00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:17,760
Speaker 2: coordinating and monitoring, and there are many steps to go

27
00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,880
Speaker 2: through before we'd be thinking about those sort of Muldoom

28
00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:21,640
Speaker 2: era steps.

29
00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:26,280
Speaker 1: Good do is there any indication at all that supply

30
00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,720
Speaker 1: at this particular point in time is a problem in

31
00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:29,880
Speaker 1: any way, shape or form.

32
00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,640
Speaker 2: Well, right now that fifty days is secure, so that

33
00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,080
Speaker 2: is fuel that is either in the country or it

34
00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:37,720
Speaker 2: isn't a ship that it's headed here and is going

35
00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:40,480
Speaker 2: to get there very soon. What we're looking ahead too

36
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:45,680
Speaker 2: is the orders that fuel companies have, particularly from around Asia.

37
00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:49,120
Speaker 2: They're literally watching those ships in their ports and they're

38
00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,240
Speaker 2: wanting to make sure that they leave ports and continue

39
00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,880
Speaker 2: on track to New Zealand. And so what we will

40
00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,200
Speaker 2: get is a forewarning is if we start seeing any

41
00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,160
Speaker 2: disruption to fright, that they're expecting to come on the

42
00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,680
Speaker 2: water in the coming days and weeks. So that means

43
00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,760
Speaker 2: that we will have a window of time and which

44
00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,440
Speaker 2: will know there's beings in disruption. In the first instance,

45
00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:13,280
Speaker 2: those fuel importers would then consider what are their alternative

46
00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:16,120
Speaker 2: ways of getting supply where else might they go in

47
00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:18,640
Speaker 2: the global market to get it? And of course, at

48
00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:22,520
Speaker 2: the same time, we're engaging in diplomatic efforts to ensure

49
00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:27,119
Speaker 2: that we aren't subject to those sorts of extreme behaviors

50
00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:31,680
Speaker 2: from commercial supplieres internationally. So that's why we're monitoring it closely,

51
00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:33,720
Speaker 2: because the first people to know will be those two

52
00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,200
Speaker 2: importers hearing from their suppliers that there is to be

53
00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:37,880
Speaker 2: any disruption.

54
00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,040
Speaker 1: Was there anything in that South Korea story yesterday or not?

55
00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,280
Speaker 2: Well, we of course are engaging intensively on that and

56
00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,520
Speaker 2: we have not had any confirmation that the South Korean

57
00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,959
Speaker 2: government is contemplating that step. But unfortunately we can't rule

58
00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:57,160
Speaker 2: it out because what we have seen that China Vietnam

59
00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:02,200
Speaker 2: have been restricting some of their exports are fuel related products,

60
00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:05,440
Speaker 2: and so you are seeing some countries reacting in that way,

61
00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:07,480
Speaker 2: and so it's the risk that we are in this two.

62
00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:11,080
Speaker 1: What's the relief trigger for you on this business of

63
00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,560
Speaker 1: the tax? Do you need to see a price at

64
00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:15,880
Speaker 1: the pump or do you need to see a supply problem?

65
00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,200
Speaker 2: Well, the first thing I'm focused on is duration, and

66
00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,680
Speaker 2: so what we are considering is how long do we

67
00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,560
Speaker 2: think the surge in oil prices and fuel prices is

68
00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,520
Speaker 2: going to last, and therefore what impact will it has.

69
00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:31,960
Speaker 2: Then the second thing is to consider what is the

70
00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:38,800
Speaker 2: appropriate response that is timely, that is targeted, that is temporary,

71
00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 2: because what we do think is that there will be

72
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,360
Speaker 2: a point at which that may be appropriate for the

73
00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,520
Speaker 2: government to step in with some supports, but we are

74
00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,680
Speaker 2: also balancing that against we need to make sure that

75
00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:53,920
Speaker 2: that is something that is sustainable and affordable and that

76
00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:56,000
Speaker 2: we have clear exit routes from it. That's what the

77
00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,120
Speaker 2: COVID report has made really clear to New Zealand this

78
00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:03,040
Speaker 2: week is that yes, there are times when support is warranted,

79
00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:05,920
Speaker 2: but if you overdo it, you pay the price for

80
00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,440
Speaker 2: a very long time. So these are decisions that need

81
00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,840
Speaker 2: to be taken in a considered way, with clarity about

82
00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,360
Speaker 2: what you're trying to achieve, how long you're trying to

83
00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,520
Speaker 2: achieve it for, and at what point you would exit

84
00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:17,200
Speaker 2: those steps.

85
00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:21,720
Speaker 1: Danish minister said overnight with three pleases. Please please please

86
00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,760
Speaker 1: don't drive unless you have to. Are we even at

87
00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:25,880
Speaker 1: that point yet or not?

88
00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,760
Speaker 2: No, we're not because we have that fifty days. So

89
00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:31,800
Speaker 2: that's where we are now. But as I say we

90
00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:36,720
Speaker 2: are looking if we are understood that new orders were

91
00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,560
Speaker 2: being disrupted, then we would go into the next steps

92
00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,400
Speaker 2: of our National Fuel Management Plan, and what you could

93
00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,000
Speaker 2: expect there is that we would start considering how do

94
00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:48,200
Speaker 2: we make sure that we've prioritized supply for critical customers,

95
00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,039
Speaker 2: How would we make sure that priority fuel stations had

96
00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:54,320
Speaker 2: what they wanted, that we were making sure freight and logistics,

97
00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,720
Speaker 2: emergency services were well supported. Then we'd just look at

98
00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,760
Speaker 2: making sure there was good retail mana that we would

99
00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:03,520
Speaker 2: get things feel distributed evenly throughout the country to the

100
00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,560
Speaker 2: regency need it, and then we would work very closely

101
00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,440
Speaker 2: with the industry to see what they were seeing happening

102
00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,279
Speaker 2: in demand. So there are a number of steps that

103
00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,520
Speaker 2: the fuel Plan and visages before you get to telling

104
00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,240
Speaker 2: people to get off the road. That's a long way

105
00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,280
Speaker 2: down the list of options, but it's important that we're

106
00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,920
Speaker 2: upfront and we say, well, that is ultimately in the

107
00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,480
Speaker 2: National Field Plan where things could get to if there

108
00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,719
Speaker 2: was a major ongoing disruption to global field supply.

109
00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:31,520
Speaker 1: None of this is going to happen, isn't. I mean,

110
00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:33,640
Speaker 1: you won't say it, but I will. This thing's over

111
00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:35,839
Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks. I'm absolutely convinced.

112
00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:40,240
Speaker 2: Well, I certainly want it to be for every New

113
00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,400
Speaker 2: Zealander who's concerned about their cost of living, for every

114
00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,760
Speaker 2: New Zealand business that just wants to have a period

115
00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,400
Speaker 2: in which they can grow. I would like this conflict

116
00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,760
Speaker 2: to be over as soon as possible, but we can't

117
00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:54,880
Speaker 2: give you a date on that. Of course, the US

118
00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,680
Speaker 2: is one actor in this conflict. We also need to

119
00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:01,880
Speaker 2: consider how other states are reacting Trail Iran. The key issue,

120
00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,000
Speaker 2: as you well know, is we've got to get that

121
00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:06,640
Speaker 2: straight of Hormo's back open because it is such a

122
00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:10,240
Speaker 2: critical place of passage, both for fuel but for other

123
00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:13,560
Speaker 2: freight and other goods. And so when that's open, we

124
00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:17,479
Speaker 2: will see disruption quiet and down considerably. But of course

125
00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:21,200
Speaker 2: there's also been damaged to refineries and fuel infrastructure throughout

126
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:23,719
Speaker 2: the world, so we can expect that there will be

127
00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:27,320
Speaker 2: some ongoing disruption. But look, sooner this is over, the better.

128
00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:29,160
Speaker 1: Good on you. You have a good weekend. Nichola will

129
00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:31,920
Speaker 1: list one It's Minister for more from the Mic Asking

130
00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,000
Speaker 1: Breakfast listen live to news talks that'd be from six

131
00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,240
Speaker 1: am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio,