1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,640
Speaker 1: It seems we've got a lift of sorts in housing,

2
00:00:01,639 --> 00:00:03,640
Speaker 1: which is good. So spring is here for on by

3
00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:05,760
Speaker 1: a band of course, we're investors adjustable. Talk to lux

4
00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:08,200
Speaker 1: and about that after seven o'clock and new sets that

5
00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:11,680
Speaker 1: show mortgage inquiries are up sixteen percent. New lending is

6
00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:13,920
Speaker 1: up over twenty four percent year on year. Monica Lacy

7
00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,480
Speaker 1: is Centric Chief operating Officer in his back with this, Monica,

8
00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:17,079
Speaker 1: good morning to you.

9
00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:18,840
Speaker 2: Good morning mate.

10
00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:20,160
Speaker 1: Do we feel a vibe here?

11
00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:24,360
Speaker 2: Possibly? I think a lot of the new mortgage lending

12
00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:28,240
Speaker 2: activity is definitely driven by the changing inter thrates and

13
00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,280
Speaker 2: people shopping around for the best deal they can get.

14
00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:35,240
Speaker 2: So whether that ends up translating and continuing to grow

15
00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:36,760
Speaker 2: was yet to be saying.

16
00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:40,320
Speaker 1: Good piece of clarification. So what you term new mortgage

17
00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:43,520
Speaker 1: lending is not fresh money. It is just people renegotiating

18
00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:44,239
Speaker 1: what they've already got.

19
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:49,040
Speaker 2: It's a combination. That's actually the RBNZ definition. So that's both.

20
00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,599
Speaker 1: Okay, twenty four percent, so a lot of people on turnover,

21
00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:54,720
Speaker 1: but the interest rates are lower, so that presumably leads something.

22
00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:57,200
Speaker 1: So we don't know whether there's much more money out

23
00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:00,800
Speaker 1: there in the market buying more homes yet from our data,

24
00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:03,680
Speaker 1: and I okay, does anyone crunch the numbers on what

25
00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:05,960
Speaker 1: they're choosing at the moment? By the way, is it fixed,

26
00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:08,280
Speaker 1: is it floating, is it how fixed? For how long?

27
00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:09,200
Speaker 1: All that sort of stuff.

28
00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:11,800
Speaker 2: I don't have that information in front of me. I

29
00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:13,679
Speaker 2: think the RBNS had published that. But what I do

30
00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:16,120
Speaker 2: know is that is about thirty six percent of fixed

31
00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,160
Speaker 2: mortgages to roll off in the next six months. So

32
00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,040
Speaker 2: that's quite a bit of activity that will start to

33
00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,880
Speaker 2: see flow through. And that should also result in a

34
00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:25,800
Speaker 2: bit more cash in people's pockets, which will be good.

35
00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,200
Speaker 1: If I ask you a pop question now, Monica, the

36
00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:30,800
Speaker 1: question is do you think there will be more mortgage

37
00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,360
Speaker 1: cuts coming before the end of the year. What's your answer?

38
00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:38,120
Speaker 2: The indication certainly is that we'll see at least another one.

39
00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:40,800
Speaker 2: Whether there'll be two or not, I don't know, but

40
00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:42,399
Speaker 2: we'll just have to wait and say.

41
00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:44,880
Speaker 1: The reason I ask you that question is there was

42
00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,319
Speaker 1: a poll out yesterday that said sixty six percent of

43
00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,480
Speaker 1: New Zealanders don't think there'll be any more cuts before

44
00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:50,880
Speaker 1: the end of the year. And I just find that

45
00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,000
Speaker 1: astounding that people are so asleep that we all know

46
00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,080
Speaker 1: more was coming and that's what the Reserve Bank has said,

47
00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,200
Speaker 1: and that's what we need, et cetera. So I just

48
00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,560
Speaker 1: wonder if this sort of weird disc connect in the

49
00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:02,440
Speaker 1: market of no one knows what the hell's going on.

50
00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:06,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's very well, it definitely sounds like it, doesn't it. Sorry,

51
00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,320
Speaker 2: it's a shame actually, because what we need is people

52
00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,440
Speaker 2: to feel confident to help ten things around a little

53
00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:11,800
Speaker 2: bit more.

54
00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,080
Speaker 1: Exactly as far as things or money is owed at

55
00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:15,960
Speaker 1: the moment, four hundred and eighty thousand people in areas,

56
00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:17,680
Speaker 1: it's up a couple of thousand. Is that material?

57
00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,240
Speaker 2: It's not like it's a really small percentage of the

58
00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,920
Speaker 2: overall population. We've got four million credit active kiwis in

59
00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:28,680
Speaker 2: the market. Of those eighty one thousand or in ninety

60
00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,520
Speaker 2: days plus, so that's quite a severe delinquency stage. So,

61
00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:34,920
Speaker 2: I mean, that's a big number on its own, but

62
00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,840
Speaker 2: in the context it's actually quite small. So overall kiweis

63
00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,760
Speaker 2: are doing quite well in managing their financial situations.

64
00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:43,959
Speaker 1: Good to hear in ninety days and that numbers actually

65
00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:45,960
Speaker 1: for those who are in trouble ninety days, which are

66
00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:47,800
Speaker 1: a reasonable period of time. As you point out, that

67
00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,000
Speaker 1: number is trending down or is it least flat year?

68
00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:53,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is. The late stage areas is flat. In

69
00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,680
Speaker 2: the early stag areas is trending down, so that means

70
00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:59,960
Speaker 2: that should start to flow through into the lower late stagery.

71
00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,639
Speaker 2: So you know there is a positive sign there.

72
00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:04,600
Speaker 1: Good stuff all right, Nice to catch up as always,

73
00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,919
Speaker 1: Monica Lacy, who's the chief operating officer at Centrix. By

74
00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:11,840
Speaker 1: the way, just quickly on the listings yesterday, more listings,

75
00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:13,880
Speaker 1: but we've never had a problem with listenings. Have been

76
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,400
Speaker 1: record numbers of listenings and plenty of houses for sale.

77
00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,280
Speaker 1: But over the August period nine percent left to Auckland

78
00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:23,800
Speaker 1: up thirteen percent, Wellington eleven, Wycato nine, buy plenty forty six.

79
00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,519
Speaker 1: Something's gone on there that'll be a new development or

80
00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,080
Speaker 1: something gives been up forty percent. So those are monthly numbers.

81
00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:32,160
Speaker 1: But six regions year on year, month on month asking

82
00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:34,960
Speaker 1: price growth in the Bay a plenty, Courri, Mental Gisban, Manuatu,

83
00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:36,760
Speaker 1: North lond and Taranaki. So I think there is some

84
00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:38,320
Speaker 1: life there after all.

85
00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,360
Speaker 2: For more from the mic Asking Breakfast listen live to

86
00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:42,000
Speaker 2: news talks.

87
00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,200
Speaker 1: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast

88
00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:46,320
Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio