1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,160 Speaker 1: Now to these Trump tariffs, a Supreme Court and the 2 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:04,960 Speaker 1: potential fallout if he coun't convince the justices. Bill Runsch 3 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: is a former United States Under Secretary for Commas for 4 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: Industry and Security and as well as Bill. Would you 5 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: expect the Supreme Court to rule against the administration? 6 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 2: Hard to tell from yesterday's hearing. The Justices enjoy torturing 7 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 2: both sides of the attorneys with difficult questions. My current 8 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 2: thinking is yes, they probably will go against the president, 9 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 2: either five to four or maybe six to three. 10 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: Okay, if they do that, are refunds going to be 11 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: the outworking or is that not real? 12 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 2: Well, under the law they should be provided the administration 13 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 2: can make it hard or easy. There's an established procedure 14 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 2: for doing that. There's paperwork involved. Trump may not want 15 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 2: to give the money back, but if the Justice's ruled 16 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 2: that the terroriffs were illegally collected, he'll have to give 17 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 2: them back. He may make it just very difficult for 18 00:00:57,640 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: businesses to actually do that. 19 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 1: Got missions in the lead up to the sign of 20 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: a couple of things that I assume you know about 21 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 1: Section three I wanted the Trade ACTE of seventy four 22 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: and also Section two three two of the Trade Expansion 23 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: Act of sixty two. He said, they're alternatives, are they? 24 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 2: Yes, They're not as good because they have a lot 25 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 2: of procedural speed bumps that have to be employed. 26 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:21,199 Speaker 3: But I think that they'll be used. 27 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 2: I mean, what I've been telling people is that, you know, 28 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,119 Speaker 2: the decision the court makes is going to be really 29 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 2: important for the powers of the presidency and the way 30 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 2: our government works. But for the businesses that are affected 31 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 2: by the tariffs, I don't think it'll make a lot 32 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 2: of difference. Trump will reimpose the tariffs using these different laws, 33 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 2: He'll be sued again, he'll lose again, and then he'll 34 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 2: try something else. 35 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 3: So I and the courts so far. 36 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 2: Have rule that the tariffs can stay in place as 37 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 2: long as the lawsuits are going on. So I don't 38 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 2: see an immediate change for the companies that are affected. 39 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 2: But it's a big decision in terms of the limitation 40 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 2: on the president's. 41 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, what about the economic that's the political side of 42 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: the legal side. What about the economic I'd read the 43 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: other day Levi Strauss and putting up their prices because 44 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: they can to cover the tariffs. 45 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 3: How much? 46 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: How long before the average American goes. You know what, 47 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: I'm over it. 48 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 2: We're estimating later this year or Q one next year 49 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 2: when you'll see most of the impact. It's been delayed, 50 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 2: you know, because he delayed the tariffs, and because there 51 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 2: was a lot of stockpiling in the anticipation of the tariffs, 52 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 2: and we're just. 53 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 3: Now working our way through that. 54 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 2: A lot of the Christmas stuff, the holiday stuff came 55 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 2: in in the summer before the terrorifts went into effect. 56 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 2: So I'd looked at the big impact next year, early 57 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 2: next year. 58 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: We'll get you back on sooon billip and joined your company. 59 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 1: Bill runs who's the former United States Under Secretary of 60 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: Commis for Industry and Security that was in the Clinton administration. 61 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: For more from the Mic Hosking Breakfast, listen live to 62 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 1: news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow 63 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.