1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,120 Speaker 1: Well, they keep saying it's the titles race. They've seen 2 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: so far, over seventy five million of the one hundred 3 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: and thirty ish million who will vote have cast their bellet. 4 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:08,960 Speaker 1: So what are we know and what are we guessing? 5 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: Polling analyst Henry Elsen's back with us morning. 6 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 2: Oh thank you for having me back and not at all? 7 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: Is it too tight to call? Or can you do 8 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 1: it confidently? 9 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 2: I do have a prediction. I think Trump will win narrowly. 10 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:23,919 Speaker 2: I don't have like an eighty percent confidence level with that, 11 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:26,600 Speaker 2: but I think it's more likely than not that Trump 12 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 2: will have a narrow electoral college victory. 13 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: Will break that down on the moment. Having read a 14 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: lot of polls myself, not as many as you, what 15 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: do you base it on? What will unfold? Do you think? 16 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 2: Well? I wrote a piece explaining this in the New 17 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 2: York Post and a data piece accompanying that. What I 18 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 2: think is that the country is shifted to the right. 19 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 2: You see that in all the polls, you see it 20 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 2: in partisan registration data, and that Harris is not winning 21 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 2: independence by enough to offset that. So Harris can win 22 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 2: the popular vote, but under narrowly, but under our system, 23 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 2: the electoral College elect and it looks like to me 24 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 2: Trump is going to win enough of those states to 25 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 2: win a majority in the electoral College. 26 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: You not only call the electoral college, but you do 27 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: I think call the popular vote as well. That would 28 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 1: be quite the victory if he pulls that off, wouldn't it. 29 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 2: It would call Harris winning the popular vote by a 30 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 2: shade over one percent, which would be three percent less 31 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 2: than Biden one buy and it would be the closest 32 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 2: margin that Trump has lost the popular vote by during 33 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 2: his three presidential elections. You know, the poll show he's 34 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 2: doing better with non whites, and I think people are 35 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:34,320 Speaker 2: willing to give him a chance. 36 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: Is it the economy? The economy, the economy and immigration? 37 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 2: Immigration? Immigration, The two things are mixed, you know that. 38 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 2: You know, put it in context. We had something like 39 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 2: eight million people try and cross the border illegally in 40 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 2: the last three years. You know, that's a huge number, 41 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 2: twice the population of New Zealand, but you know it's 42 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 2: almost three percent of our population. Imagine if you had 43 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty thousand people storm Auckland and trying 44 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: to get in. That's what we've had here. And the 45 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 2: combination of inflation and immigration is what's pueling Trump's lead. 46 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: So if you take those two issues, that's where Harris 47 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: fell apart. Because she's been in office for three and 48 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 1: a half years, could have done something about it, didn't. 49 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 1: People are giving up on that. Is that fair? 50 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 2: Yeah? I think that's exactly fair. The fact is Biden 51 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 2: is arguably the lowest rated first term president in the 52 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,480 Speaker 2: history of polling, basically up there with Jimmy Carter who 53 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 2: lost a landslide victory to Ronald Reagan, and less popular 54 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 2: than Donald Trump was at this time four years ago, 55 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 2: and it's very hard for Harris to overcome that legacy. 56 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 2: Had she been had they chosen somebody who wasn't the 57 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 2: vice president, I think the Democrats would be looking at 58 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 2: a victory. 59 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: This is getting into the slightly esoteric, but when you 60 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: go back to the previous election, Biden was allegedly the 61 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: only person who could stop Trump getting a second term. 62 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: So did they not think beyond that, did they not 63 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: think that Biden would look too old, that it would 64 00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: be a problem. And if it was a problem, what 65 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: do they do if they did something like Harris that 66 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,079 Speaker 1: was going to buy them the trouble They've now got. 67 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I think you've got two decision points. First 68 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 2: of the decision point of last year, when an ambitious 69 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 2: person could have taken Biden on in the Democratic primary 70 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 2: and forced him to campaign. I think what we would 71 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 2: have seen is what we saw in July, which was 72 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 2: a man who was too old to do the job. 73 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 2: But nobody's willing to take the risk because if you lose, 74 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 2: if you don't kill the king, the king kills you, 75 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 2: and that's the end of your career. And so that 76 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 2: let Biden slide to the summertime. And once they let 77 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 2: it slide to the summertime, it was either Harris or 78 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 2: a messy fight, and they chose to have Harris rather 79 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 2: than the messy fight. 80 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 1: All right, Henry, nice to have you back on the program. 81 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: Henry Elson, famed Polster, I hate him tomorrow. For more 82 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news Talks. 83 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast 84 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.