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Speaker 1: So the ballers in Russia's court this evening on the

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Speaker 1: ceasefire deal. The US has managed to get Ukraine to

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Speaker 1: the table. They've agreed to thirty days of no fighting.

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Speaker 1: Then hopefully they can start to have talks about actually

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Speaker 1: ending the war. This all goes to the Kremlin before

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Speaker 1: it goes anywhere else. Alexei Moravrev is with Curtain University.

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Speaker 1: He's the associate professor of National Security and Strategic Studies.

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Speaker 1: He's with me.

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Speaker 2: Good evening, good afternoon, and good Evenian to you.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for being with us. Do you think Russia

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Speaker 1: will like this deal? Will they like and take the

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Speaker 1: terms for a thirty day seas?

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Speaker 2: Fine? Well I don't think they do. They will, and

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Speaker 2: this is what they were trying to manifest of a

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Speaker 2: certain period of time and a number of foum seeing

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Speaker 2: they're not interested in the temporary ceisfire. That may provide

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Speaker 2: the Ukrainians an advantage in terms of recovering a regrouping Reginier,

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Speaker 2: eating their strength and then obviously regining their will to

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Speaker 2: fight on. The Russians are currently moving, they advancing. They

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Speaker 2: made significant progress in liberating the course C region and

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Speaker 2: emphasizing on the word liberation. Obviously it's different from what

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Speaker 2: the Russians are doing in Ukraine. And in this sense,

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Speaker 2: the Russians come into these talks from the position of

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Speaker 2: strength because one of the I mean, the problem that

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Speaker 2: we have in trying to understand this whole rapid change

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Speaker 2: concerning the conflict is we have been subjected to certain

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Speaker 2: types of narratives over the past three years, and certainly

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Speaker 2: one of the narratives that we're trying to battle ourselves

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Speaker 2: against is the fact that this is an unwinnable war.

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Speaker 2: And the Russians don't really see that this is an

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Speaker 2: unwiennable war. Yes, they're making very slow progress, but they're

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Speaker 2: grabbing territory, the inflicking damage on the military, and that's

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Speaker 2: why they have no interest in stopping it.

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Speaker 1: So you think, Alexi, that the Russian people genuinely believe,

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Speaker 1: even though Poten said this is going to be a

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks of a war, here we are three

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Speaker 1: years later. They genuinely believe that they can actually win it.

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Speaker 1: And what does winning mean? Does that mean actually taking

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Speaker 1: over all of Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: See this is where it also gets very interesting. We

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Speaker 2: continue to run with this narrative that for some reason

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Speaker 2: the Russians won the whole of Ukraine. It was never

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Speaker 2: stated in any of Russia's official communications or declarations. Then

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Speaker 2: they want the whole of Ukraine. They want Ukraine as

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Speaker 2: a buffer. That's certainly the endgame in terms of answering you.

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Speaker 2: And it doesn't mean that Russia wants to control the

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Speaker 2: whole of the country, which I don't think they want

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Speaker 2: or can.

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Speaker 1: They just want some space. They want some space between

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Speaker 1: them and you want space.

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Speaker 2: And they want and they want buffer between themselves and Nita.

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Speaker 2: And to answer your question about Russia's will to fight, initially,

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Speaker 2: yes they were. They were kind of very slow and

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Speaker 2: they didn't expect that it would be such a prolonged conflict.

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Speaker 2: But the Kremlin managed to weaponize their minds and military

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Speaker 2: rise them. So the Russians are currently feeling like they

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Speaker 2: don't want to stop. I think the greatest disappointment for

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Speaker 2: them if they would be given orders to hold the assault,

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Speaker 2: and that may actually cause more a backlash for Putting

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Speaker 2: than having some sort of negotiation.

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Speaker 1: Alexi very quickly, because we are really tight on time here.

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Speaker 1: But just to give us an idea, what would it

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Speaker 1: take for Russia to go through the six Fire.

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Speaker 2: If the United States would bring on the table some

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Speaker 2: significant concessions to the Russians, whether it's lifting of sanctions

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Speaker 2: or some sanctions or something else, then Putting would be

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Speaker 2: able to go back to his people and sell the

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Speaker 2: idea if it's going to be just you know, show

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Speaker 2: a case of goodwill. Well, I think Putting would actually

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Speaker 2: be damaging his own reputation in the eyes of the

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Speaker 2: people he was trying to sell this war too, including

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Speaker 2: the fact that Russia will fight until the end, until victory.

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Speaker 2: So without some sort of compromise on the US side,

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to be visible.

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Speaker 1: Alix, I really appreciate you time. That's Alexei Moraviev. He's

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Speaker 1: with Curtain University Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies, saying, basically,

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Speaker 1: person needs something from the Americans to get the ceasefire

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Speaker 1: across the across the line. For more from Heather Duplessy

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Speaker 1: Allen Drive, listen live to news Talks. It'd be from

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Speaker 1: four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.