1 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:06,080 Speaker 1: Kiota. 2 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:16,119 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. It's a 4 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 2: trying time for the government, with fuel prices and the 5 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 2: Iran War affecting just about every keyw It's something the 6 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: opposition knows all too well, handling a crisis not of 7 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 2: their own making with COVID. But how are politicians of 8 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 2: all stripes handling the pressure? How is the public feeling 9 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 2: about their performance? And how much weight should we put 10 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 2: on polls anyway? Are they all nonsense or are we 11 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 2: told to only ignore them? What a party's doing poorly? 12 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 3: Today? 13 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 2: On the Front Page, lawyer and political commentator Liam Hare 14 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 2: is with us to talk politics, polls and policy. So 15 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 2: Liam National slipped further behind Labor in the latest ron 16 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 2: z Read Research poll. They're at thirty point eight percent 17 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 2: and that, granted, not as bad as the twenty eight 18 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 2: point four percent the other week that we saw. 19 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 4: What do you make of this? 20 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 5: Well, well, no one pole matters too much, you know, 21 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 5: the poles will bounce around of it. It's the direction 22 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 5: of travel that that really matters. It's the overall trajectory 23 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 5: and that's not good. So a poll that has them 24 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 5: just about thirty percent is not a whole lot better 25 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 5: than a pole that has them just below thirty percent. 26 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 3: If the direction of travel is bad, and the direction 27 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 3: of travel is not good for National at. 28 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 2: The moment, well, Luxein's are also recorded as lowest personal 29 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 2: approval rating yet that's at seventeen point three percent. It's 30 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,639 Speaker 2: this weakest result since becoming national leader. 31 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 4: Actually in twenty twenty one. 32 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 5: Should he be worried, he should be worried about losing 33 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 5: the election. 34 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 3: I don't think he needs to be worried about. 35 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 5: Losing the National Party leadership, not this close to the election, 36 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 5: not when there isn't a already made Jacindra Adurn waiting 37 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 5: in the wings to step in and take over. But 38 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:08,079 Speaker 5: leadership often correlates very strongly with overall party performance. Not 39 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 5: always there can be a divergence, but as all of 40 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 5: a piece. Really, nothing succeeds like success, nothing fixes problems 41 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 5: like winning in the same time. 42 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 3: When things go wrong, they tend to go wrong all 43 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 3: at once. 44 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I do think about former national leaders have 45 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 2: rated much worse you've got Judith Collins, twenty twenty, Simon 46 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 2: Bridges twenty nineteen granted they were both in opposition then, 47 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 2: but you know, at what ratings should he at least 48 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 2: start to get a bit worried about someone coming in 49 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:40,679 Speaker 2: and rolling in. 50 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 5: I don't think he needs to be too worried about 51 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 5: the preferred prime minister ratings as such at all, as 52 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 5: long as there's no one who's really making Sucainey grounds 53 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 5: right behind him. I've never put a lot of store 54 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 5: in preferred prime minister ratings to begin with. It's actually 55 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 5: I think that the right track wrong track polling result 56 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 5: for the country, how people feel the country is going 57 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 5: as a whole, that matters a lot more. And actually 58 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 5: that hasn't been great either. So in the research poll 59 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 5: for orian Z Nashville had it was a pretty bad 60 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 5: result for the country overall, with more people thinking of 61 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 5: the country is on the wrong track and the right track. 62 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 3: I think that's the one you're actually got to be 63 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 3: more worried about. 64 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 2: Well, when parties look good in polls, they talk about them. 65 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 4: When they look bad, they go it's far too early. 66 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 2: You shouldn't look at poles where you know the old 67 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 2: poles are different. 68 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 4: I mean, where do you sit on them? 69 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 5: The poles are at tool right I think that you know, 70 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 5: you can deinitely discern patterns from them, and historically from 71 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:45,839 Speaker 5: about this time, the poles are really useful for sort 72 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 5: of setting the basic expectations. 73 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 3: About what the electioneer is going to be like. 74 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 5: So it's not that common to have dramatic pole movements 75 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 5: from here on out unless there are dramatic events that occur. 76 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 5: So we basically have the setting of what the election 77 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 5: is going to look like. And it's kind of new 78 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 5: territory for National in a lot of ways. So I 79 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 5: remember in two thousand and eight it felt like every 80 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 5: time there was a bad poll, Hallo Clark was coming 81 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 5: out and saying, I think there might be a rogue, 82 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 5: but you know, we mostly have ten rogue polls in 83 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 5: a row. They're not rogues. That's the pattern. And so 84 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 5: what the pattern we have now is that we have 85 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 5: an extremely close election in terms of a left. 86 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 3: Block and a right block which are fairly well defined. 87 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 5: But as part of that pattern, National is behind Labor. 88 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 5: So you might remember that in twenty and seventeen there 89 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 5: was a lot of talk about the idea of it 90 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,600 Speaker 5: being politically unacceptable for the largest party not to innform 91 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 5: the government. 92 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 3: The idea was that National came. 93 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 5: First in terms of a relative majority of the party 94 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 5: vote and the seats, but the Labor, the coalition Labor 95 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:55,840 Speaker 5: sit together with Winston Peters, you know, it had more 96 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,840 Speaker 5: seats of parliament, so it became the government. And there 97 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 5: was a lot of outcry that, especially from National voters, 98 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 5: and the term coalition of losers was thrown around a lot. 99 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 5: And I can tell you something, you will not be 100 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 5: hearing that from National this time around, you know. So, 101 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 5: I think we are in an unusual position. 102 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 3: We're National. 103 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,160 Speaker 5: It does you know, Like I don't mean to suggest 104 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 5: by any means that National is definitely going to lose 105 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 5: the election. 106 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 3: I don't think that's not certain at all. 107 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 5: But there's a real possibility that National might be re elected, 108 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 5: but only as the second largest party in parliament. That's 109 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 5: a really uncomfortable position for the party. 110 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, they do rely a lot on the Act 111 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 2: and New Zealand First voter base. 112 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 4: How are those parties. 113 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 3: Doing they're holding up? 114 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 5: I mean, there's a there's a good argument I think 115 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 5: that Act in New Zealand First are like the parasite 116 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 5: that's killing the host. 117 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 3: Right. 118 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 5: So normally and once you have your first term over 119 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:55,599 Speaker 5: and done with. There's normally a couple of things that 120 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 5: are in play. First of all, the main opposition party 121 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 5: is in disarray, sciplined, that's had leadership directions. It doesn't 122 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 5: look like an alternative government. Secondly, the support parties have 123 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 5: tended to be on pretty good behavior for the last 124 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 5: two and a half years because they want to prove 125 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 5: that they can given and they lose their distinctiveness. So 126 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 5: what you tend to have is a collapse of the 127 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 5: wings and the center on the other side, and the 128 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 5: incumbent government normally gets a big premium, it gets a 129 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 5: big boost, which is why the first reelection has normally 130 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 5: been a bit of a gimmei in New Zealand politics, 131 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 5: and all the record breaking party votes have tended to 132 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 5: have come in that first reelection sort of a thing. 133 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 3: This time, this is the first time this hasn't happened, 134 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 3: and part. 135 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 5: Of the reason is that New Zealand First and Act 136 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 5: have been very clever or they have worked out that 137 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 5: the way to survive in government as a small party 138 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 5: is to push the limit of collegiality, to make themselves 139 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 5: look different all the time, to maintain their sort of 140 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 5: bad boy sort of status. 141 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 3: Within the government and both parties. 142 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 5: Have done that and as a result, they're both unusually strong. 143 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 5: It's the first time for Zealand that we've had a 144 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 5: genuine coalition looking for reelection where the minor parties have 145 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 5: really increased in strength, and a lot of that's come 146 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 5: to the detriment of the National Party. Giving an example 147 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 5: of how that's happened, right, So it's definitely the case 148 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 5: that National has struggled to retain that centrist votes over 149 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 5: things like the. 150 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 3: Treaty Principal's Bill. 151 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 5: Right, So, the Treaty Principle's Bill, Core Act Promise completely 152 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 5: doomed legislation. It was never going to pass in a 153 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 5: million years because National didn't support it. And yet because 154 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 5: Act insisted on it, insisted on having the argument, insisted 155 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 5: on it being high profile, National had to watch what 156 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 5: it said. It had to be diplomatic in a way 157 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 5: the Act didn't. They couldn't really criticize the bill and 158 00:07:57,440 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 5: it lost a whole lot of centrist voters as a result, 159 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 5: while At got to look good for its own base. 160 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 5: And I think that's what's happened. What's happened is that 161 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 5: the minor parties have figured out how to survive and 162 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 5: a lot of that expenses come to come from National. 163 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 2: Right, and they figured out how to survive and also 164 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 2: dodged the whole coalition of chaos situation that we were 165 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 2: promised as well, because that's not really happened, let's be honest. 166 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 5: Yeah, well they haven't. The way I would say it 167 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 5: is they have. They have. They haven't been afraid to 168 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:34,320 Speaker 5: mark their territory and to push back at National I 169 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 5: think that they've kind of embraced the chaos. I think 170 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 5: this is the most incoherent government that we've ever had 171 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 5: because you've had you've got three coalition parties, not confidence 172 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:50,079 Speaker 5: and supply, full coalition parties which buck each other and 173 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 5: criticize each other as much as you know, not quite 174 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 5: as much as parties do in opposition, but to a 175 00:08:55,800 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 5: to a great extent. The downs well, you know the 176 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 5: thing that Labor might be enjoying that, and I'm sure 177 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 5: that they are at the moment, but I think the 178 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 5: problem is with the template being set, Labour is not 179 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 5: going to get in on its own. Labour is going 180 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 5: to have the Greens and to Party Malory they are 181 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,320 Speaker 5: supporting it if it gets in, and to Party Moldy 182 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 5: and the Greens we'll have learned the same lesson. So 183 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 5: I think this is the new normal in New Zealand politics. 184 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 5: We are going to have coalitions which don't mind criticizing 185 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,679 Speaker 5: each other, and which the small parties will prosper at 186 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 5: the expense. 187 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:29,959 Speaker 3: Of the large ones. 188 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 6: Simply, the commitment that I've made to New Zealander is 189 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 6: that we will respond to this crisis in a way 190 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 6: that doesn't put more pressure on inflation, because we know 191 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 6: that that will worsen price increases across the economy for 192 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 6: everyone and potentially increase the duration of these price increases. 193 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,679 Speaker 6: We saw that after COVID inflation stayed out of control 194 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 6: for thirty three months in a row and reached into 195 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 6: generational highs. Because as I've said, we are living in 196 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 6: a more fragile world, international borrowing costs are rising, they 197 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,199 Speaker 6: are not decreasing, and New Zealand is already coming very 198 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:11,439 Speaker 6: close to its debt limits. 199 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 4: Well, let's get onto the current fuel crisis. 200 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 2: I can't help but notice actually that Nicola Willis has 201 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 2: fronted a lot of the public media regarding the fuel crisis. 202 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 2: Luxeon was even over in the Pacific the other week 203 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 2: Nicola Willis was fronting it alone. You've got Shane Jones 204 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,199 Speaker 2: brought in as well to be kind of like a 205 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 2: voice of reason, which is something that Shane Jones. You know, 206 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 2: it's surprising. Do you reckon that's all intentional? Do you 207 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 2: think do people like Nicola Moore? 208 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 5: Well, I don't think that Crystal Luxon went to the Pacific, 209 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 5: you know, to avoid having a front it. 210 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 4: I mean, well he could have. 211 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 5: He could have called it off though, right, Yeah, I 212 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 5: mean these foreign trips organize a long time in advance. 213 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 3: I'm sure that he I'm sure that he was relieved 214 00:10:56,160 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 3: not having it to front it. 215 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 5: Yeah, but you know, Nicola after luxaid. Nichola Willis is 216 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:06,440 Speaker 5: after all the finance minister. It would normally fall to 217 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 5: any any deputy to be the one to give the 218 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 5: bad news. Right, It's not normally the case that the 219 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 5: leader likes to give the bad news. That's true and 220 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 5: all aspects of human endeavors. That's why it was always 221 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 5: the deputy principle who you got sent to when you 222 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 5: were naughty at skill, instead of the principle. Right, it's 223 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 5: the same sort of dynamics. 224 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 3: It's an on one situation for the government. Though. That's 225 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 3: the problem. This is this fuel. 226 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 5: The fuel prices are the serious danger for the government, 227 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 5: and the reason is that it doesn't It has no 228 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 5: control over the situation. The situation has been caused by 229 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 5: a war that the government didn't choose. But also, the 230 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 5: government can't really criticize the decision to initiate that war, 231 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 5: because if they do, then not only might we have 232 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 5: high fuel prices, but we might get on the radar 233 00:11:56,400 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 5: or someone who's pretty happy about slapping tariffs on trade partners. 234 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 5: So you know, we can't criticize the we can't criticize 235 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 5: the war. We can't criticize the decisions that lead to 236 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 5: the war, but we have to eat the consequences of that. 237 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 5: And the government therefore is just fronting things without the 238 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 5: ability to blame other parties and without really any solution 239 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 5: to the problem. 240 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 4: What do you make of Labor? 241 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,439 Speaker 2: I mean, I know that labor went through the COVID 242 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 2: crisis and that was no fault of their own either, 243 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 2: But does the government have a leg to stand on 244 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 2: when it says we don't have any control over the 245 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 2: war in the Middle East? Now, given all the grief. 246 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,959 Speaker 5: It's a completely different type of crisis. So the COVID, 247 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 5: the COVID crisis was an ability for a government to 248 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 5: showcase action, to lay out a plan to get people 249 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 5: to rally behind it. And whether it's true or not 250 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 5: nineteen to think is not so true. There was a 251 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 5: sense of national pride about the idea that we were 252 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 5: winning the pandemic compared to other country. So that. 253 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 3: Was what really turbocharged labor to a historical victory. 254 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:11,080 Speaker 5: The correct comparison is to the broader inflationary pressures of 255 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 5: twenty twenty three, something that labor did contribute to greatly 256 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 5: but didn't fully cause. Labor didn't cause that ship to 257 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 5: get stuck sideways in the service canal right, But the inflation, 258 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 5: whether or and fl inflation, was happening around the world, 259 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 5: and there was always an easy ability to appoint to 260 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 5: the fact that there were global pressures causing inflation. The 261 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 5: voters didn't care. The voters don't care about that excuses 262 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 5: for inflation. Inflation is the incumbent killer, and labor was crucified. 263 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 5: It was the first MMP government not to win a 264 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 5: third term, largely because of those costs of living pressures 265 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 5: you know, and you know I should disclose By the way, 266 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 5: I'm a National Party supporter. 267 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,959 Speaker 3: I'm on the center, right. You know, we might now face. 268 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 5: The first MMP government not to be re elected again 269 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:02,959 Speaker 5: because of cost of living and inflation and those. 270 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 3: Types of things, and so. 271 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 5: It is a very dangerous spot for national being and 272 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 5: no one stands to gain more from those pressures being relieved. 273 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 2: The crystal reluxan Is there anything that the government can 274 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 2: do in order to combat the cost of living without 275 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 2: chucking a whole bunch of money into the economy and 276 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 2: creating an inflationary bonfire and just fueling it. 277 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 4: With cash grabs and things. I mean, that's not the 278 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 4: way to do it. So how will the votere be happy? 279 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 3: Here's very little. 280 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 5: I mean, for part of being a grown up is 281 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 5: just accepting that sometimes there are such things as no 282 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 5: one situations, situations that have to be endured rather than 283 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 5: rather than there's no clever, instant way out of it. 284 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 5: You know, it wasn't like the Labor government didn't try 285 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 5: to escape the inflationary trap in twenty twenty three. The 286 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 5: problem is is that the solutions that you offer, help 287 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 5: that you offer is temporary, but it's also quickly consumed 288 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 5: by events all right, So if the government makes fifty 289 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 5: dollars more available and waiting. 290 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 3: For families, you know, for a period, well. 291 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 5: Okay, that might help cover you know, a couple of 292 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 5: weeks worth of fuel increases, but pretty soon that's been 293 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 5: eaten up and people still feel miserable. You know, there's 294 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 5: not a lot that you can actually do because people 295 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 5: tend to assimilate the baseline support into their default expectation 296 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 5: and they don't become happy all of a sudden just 297 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 5: because they are suffering. 298 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 3: A little bit less than they're otherwise. 299 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 5: Well, if the government wants to take the initiative, it's 300 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 5: going to take the initiative by driving a wedge between 301 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 5: voters and labor on issues. 302 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 3: Other to do other than to do with the economy. 303 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 5: So Christina Luxen, I think, is someone who has always 304 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 5: put great store a personal store. And he said this 305 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 5: that he doesn't like negative campaigning. He doesn't like to 306 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 5: campaign in a negative way about his opponents. I think 307 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 5: that freight a little bit in his first term as 308 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 5: Bridan like, I think you started to see a bit 309 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 5: of a creeping in of taking a more critical approach. 310 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 5: But the one thing that National does have is that 311 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 5: the opposite coalition is potentially very unpopular too. 312 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 3: And it's not so much Labor voters. 313 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 5: Can see Christopher Pipkins as a potential prime minister because 314 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 5: he's done the job before. He's already cleared that hurdle. 315 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 5: But what you do have is you have a Labor 316 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 5: Party that is going to be very reliant on Party 317 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 5: Malory to form a coalition government. Tabarti Maldi has had 318 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 5: a dream run from the news media in the last 319 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 5: sort of four or five years where it staked out 320 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 5: political positions which are completely toxic to the general population. 321 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 5: But for whatever reason, they sort of had a lot 322 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 5: of kid sort of kid glove treatment from the media 323 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 5: on it, and they've been pushing an open door and 324 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 5: become bolder and bolder. And so if national wants to say, right, look, 325 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 5: you know, you might be a bit grumpy about the economy, 326 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 5: but this is the alternative alternatives. You have a government 327 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 5: that is made up of of of of these extremist 328 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 5: views having a seat around the table. And then then 329 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 5: at least puts Christopher Hopkins on the back foot to 330 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 5: to to to annoy his own base by trying to 331 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 5: marginalize to Party Moldy or to look unconvincing to the 332 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:27,360 Speaker 5: voters by refusing to distance himself from those views. That 333 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 5: that is how National often played the difference between Labor 334 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 5: and the Green Parties and elections gone by. I think 335 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 5: the Green Party has been around long enough then it's 336 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 5: it's got. 337 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:39,159 Speaker 3: A strong enough brand. 338 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 5: It's sort of people are usedful enough that you can't 339 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 5: demonize or use the Greens in that way. But you 340 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 5: certainly can with to Party Moldy. I think, and and 341 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 5: and there's no question that Labored is the same for 342 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 5: for Act. But I'm not sure that National really has 343 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 5: the stomach to sort of campaign in that way. 344 00:17:57,960 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 4: Well, that's what I was going to say. 345 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 2: What's the likelihood of Crew for coming out here and 346 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 2: calling to party Maori extremists? 347 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,400 Speaker 4: You know, I don't. I can't see that happening. 348 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 3: It's hard to see it happening. And in some ways 349 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 3: it's not really clear if he could do it. 350 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 5: You know, voters have Politicians have to be authentic, They 351 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 5: have to be authentic to themselves. 352 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 4: Is he authentic enough? 353 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 3: Listen? He is? He actually is? 354 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 5: He is. 355 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 3: I think that he is who he is the business talk. 356 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 5: That is his background, and that's what comes through and 357 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 5: if he tries to be something other than what he is, 358 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 5: it's not going to work. 359 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 3: That's where Yeah. But the problem is is that and is. 360 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,440 Speaker 5: That that's probably a very good prime minister for growth times. 361 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 3: That's a prime minister. 362 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,679 Speaker 5: You know that that kind of persona probably does a 363 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 5: lot better I when sailing is a lot smoother than 364 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 5: it does when things are difficult, because you know when 365 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,360 Speaker 5: things if you're a CEO type, then you know when 366 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:03,199 Speaker 5: things are going strong. The CEO type manifests itself as 367 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 5: sort of competence capability guy knows what he's doing when 368 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 5: times are going bad, That ceo. 369 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 3: Sort of archetype. 370 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:16,160 Speaker 5: It reminds people of the of the person who laid 371 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 5: off their dad, and and that is I think the danger. 372 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 5: But look, you have to play the cards you dealt with, 373 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 5: you know, you just you have to and don't try 374 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 5: to be someone who're not. You've just got to go 375 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 5: to the strength that you have, and you have to 376 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 5: perhaps look to elevate those members of your team who 377 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 5: can be more that more negative politicians, the more negative 378 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 5: soul of campaigning, they might have to take a more 379 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 5: prominent role. 380 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 1: You can appreciate people would have liked to see more 381 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:53,160 Speaker 1: help from the government, but the truth is labor got 382 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,439 Speaker 1: the government's credit card. They maxed it out, and now 383 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: we're in a very tough position. We can't do much 384 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 1: more because they do too much more during COVID. What 385 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 1: we are assuring is that we do not needlessly add 386 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 1: to inflation and interest rates without of control spending. We 387 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: saw that for years. 388 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 3: People are still paying for it. 389 00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 1: One of the reasons that we went into this in 390 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 1: a challenging situation is because of the last response to 391 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 1: a crisis that was totally overblown. 392 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 2: And just quickly, just lastly, I don't know if you 393 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 2: saw this, but would you spend ten thousand dollars to 394 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 2: sit next to the prime minister at a fundraising dinner? 395 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 4: Did you see it? 396 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,680 Speaker 2: So basically this is the this is the invite. It's 397 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 2: been making the rounds online. It's basically Mari and Pugh. 398 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 2: It seems to be I mean, she posted it. 399 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:44,959 Speaker 4: Now she's deleted it. We don't know whether it was 400 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 4: it was an accident or not. 401 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 2: Basically, this fundraising dinner tables started around five thousand dollars. 402 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 2: You can sit with the cabinet minister or a National 403 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 2: Party president for eight thousand dollars, and you considered a 404 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 2: table with Christopher Luxen and myself for ten thousand dollars. 405 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 2: People have been saying that this is very much selling access. 406 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 2: If you've got the money, you get closer to power. 407 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,479 Speaker 2: But then others say, well, this is just your regular 408 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 2: fundraising event. 409 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 4: What do you make of it? 410 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:11,400 Speaker 3: There is absoutely nothing new about it. 411 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 2: In effect, it's just us poor people don't know about 412 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 2: this event. 413 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 5: Take you five seconds to google that the exact same 414 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 5: sort of fundraiser happened just under our doing a grant Robinson, 415 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:31,399 Speaker 5: you know, we look, Look, I have paid money to 416 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,639 Speaker 5: go to events where I'm gonna pay ten thousand dollars. 417 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 5: I've paid money to go to events with politicians from 418 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 5: both sides, all right, from both Labor and national and 419 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 5: national Labor and National party governments. 420 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,399 Speaker 3: It's it's very much. I suppose a. 421 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,880 Speaker 4: Donation, Yeah, what do you get out of it? 422 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 5: Well, you know it's a donation, right, It's a way 423 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 5: of donating money, isn't it. I suppose Yeah, if the 424 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 5: prime minister involved has a huge amount of celebrity power, 425 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 5: and it's the type of thing that you might like 426 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 5: to brag about then you get to get that. I'm 427 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 5: not quite sure that the market rate for the celebrity 428 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 5: power of Crystal Luxon is quite eight ten thousand dollars though. 429 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 2: We won't be seeing pictures on LinkedIn with Chris Luxon 430 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:26,440 Speaker 2: having having your beef bullet, you know, meat balls. 431 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 4: I don't know what do they serve at those things? 432 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, but there is. 433 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 5: A broader I think there's a much there's a broader 434 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 5: question right about about about how we fund the political 435 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 5: parties and how we manage. 436 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,399 Speaker 4: It or even accessibility as well. 437 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:46,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, but that is that's how political parties have always 438 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 7: been funded. Now, I've written in the past about different 439 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 7: ways to handle this, and I think that a better 440 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 7: regime would be some sort of would be an enforced anonymity. 441 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 3: It should become impossible to donate to a political party 442 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 3: in a way the political party can trace your donation. 443 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 3: And there are ways that you can do that. 444 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 5: And the way that it would work, Look, you could 445 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 5: the way that it would work for something like this 446 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 5: is that you pay for the cost of your meal, 447 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,360 Speaker 5: right that's and then you make a donation on top 448 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,120 Speaker 5: of that, and there's no way of the political party 449 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 5: knowing what the donation was or wasn't, But that look 450 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,199 Speaker 5: that that that that that takes a fundamental rethink of 451 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 5: the of the whole lictoral system. But the reality is 452 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 5: that this taxpayers are going to sump up for the 453 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,439 Speaker 5: amount of money that parties need to exist, and. 454 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 3: Then then there's no alternative. 455 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:39,680 Speaker 5: Party is just going to have to go to where 456 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 5: the money is to get the money to exist. 457 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 4: Thanks for joining us, Liam. 458 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 3: Oh my absolute pleasure anytime. 459 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You 460 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 461 00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:59,119 Speaker 2: at enzid Herald dot co dot nz. The Front Page 462 00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 2: is hosted and by me Chelsea Daniels Caine. Dicky is 463 00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,439 Speaker 2: our studio operator, Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and 464 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 2: our executive producer. 465 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 4: Is Jane Ye. 466 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,439 Speaker 2: Follow the Front Page on the iheartapp or wherever you 467 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,879 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and join us next time for another 468 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 2: look beyond the headlines.