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Speaker 1: Liam Dan, the Herald's business editor at Larges with me

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Speaker 1: at the moment. Hey dam good. So the INSIDEX fifty

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Speaker 1: is up about six percent in the past month.

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Speaker 2: Why, yeah, well, I guess it's all to do with

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Speaker 2: the interest rates starting to turn and all that optimism

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Speaker 2: and green shoots that we're talking about. So what happens is,

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Speaker 2: you know, the last time it really boomed was with

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Speaker 2: all that COVID stimulus. Money was there and interest rates

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Speaker 2: were extremely low, and it's been tracking sideways since about

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one. But yeah, it's finally gone past the

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Speaker 2: point about twelve thousand odds on the index where it

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Speaker 2: was on February twenty one, twenty twenty when it collapsed

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Speaker 2: you started going weird with COVID, and it's at its

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Speaker 2: highest point in two years. And yeah, it's suddenly looking

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Speaker 2: like a more interesting place. You've got the warehouse takeover play. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: Stephen Tindall's got a big plan and everything, but still

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Speaker 2: the timing is not a coincidence. Warehouse was very cheap,

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Speaker 2: and you've got Arvida, the retirement village operator that's often

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Speaker 2: red to property retirement villages, and so that's a play

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Speaker 2: and look there are people in the market suggesting that

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Speaker 2: we may see more of this because you know, in

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Speaker 2: these cycles, yeah, because what happens is the smart money

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Speaker 2: sits on the sides during the bit when interest rates

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Speaker 2: are high and you're doing all right with it sitting

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Speaker 2: in the bank, and the share price the shares don't

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Speaker 2: do so well, and then as soon as they see

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Speaker 2: the first glimmer of hope that that's turning, which is

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Speaker 2: ahead of you know, the economy is terrible still, but

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Speaker 2: there are signs of life out there. The signs of

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Speaker 2: life are what they're looking for in the turn of

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Speaker 2: the cycle. And then countercyclical I guess is what you

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Speaker 2: call it. They're starting to come in.

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Speaker 1: Do we know what sectors we're going to be talking about.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think anything with like people are talking about

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Speaker 2: the retirement village sector or each other players, retail and property.

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Speaker 2: These are sectors that have really struggled and there is

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Speaker 2: presumably some bargains out there in the in the eyes

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Speaker 2: of shear market investors, it is complicated a little bit

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Speaker 2: by the US because they've got a tech bubble. The

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Speaker 2: same things happened in the US with the bulk of

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Speaker 2: the stock So if you look at the bulk of

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Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred. It's also been in

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Speaker 2: the doldrums and should start to pick up. But there's

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Speaker 2: about seven stocks in the US and Video and Meta

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Speaker 2: and Tesla and Google Alphabet, the amazing seven or magnificent seven. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: and they have really propped up everything for the last

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Speaker 2: two years, and so they're unfortunately they're on the brink

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Speaker 2: of everyone talking about a bubble, and so you could

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Speaker 2: see them collapse, but you should also hopefully they don't collapse.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully they just come off gently and we see the

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Speaker 2: real world stocks, you know, the retailers and the manufacturers

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Speaker 2: and all that sort of thing ought to start coming

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Speaker 2: back in the US as well. So yeah, it's just

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Speaker 2: just suddenly noticed that there's a bit of action out there,

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Speaker 2: and there's a bit of excitement in the markets about

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Speaker 2: this because this is what this is what the sheer

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Speaker 2: investors wait for, the really sharp players.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, totally. Hey, listen, by the way, on interest rates,

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Speaker 1: which you mentioned just before, when are you picking the cup? Then?

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Speaker 2: Well, I don't think it can be August, I think,

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Speaker 2: but I I look the just the banks have moved

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Speaker 2: already a little bit, and that might have done a little.

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Speaker 1: Bit of a job. Not August. Are you saying October

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Speaker 1: could be? I just want to remind you that I've

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Speaker 1: been saying November to you, Liam for the longest time.

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Speaker 1: Me you'd be telling me I'm wrong, and now.

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Speaker 2: Look yeah, well yeah, the things turned fat in No,

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Speaker 2: I think I think. Yeah. I mean, if you if

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Speaker 2: you go through all the ups and downs, it's about

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Speaker 2: where we started, where we thought it would be at

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Speaker 2: the start of the year.

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Speaker 1: Oh oh, is that what you're doing? Are you saying

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Speaker 1: you called this ages go and then changed your mind.

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Speaker 1: Now you're going back to your original one?

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Speaker 2: Yea yeah, oh okay, yeah, absolutely.

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Speaker 1: Well I can't just prove that, so I'm going to

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Speaker 1: have to just.

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Speaker 2: Re could you probably go through all my columns?

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Speaker 1: Actually, now that I've thought now, I'm going to do

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Speaker 1: a word search for you columns and fine, fine.

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Speaker 2: No, I'll tell you what I did call I called

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Speaker 2: a seven percent interest rate peak about two years ago,

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Speaker 2: and that's where we landed.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well you can have that one then, Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Le I don't know why this has turned into a

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Speaker 1: weird competition between us, but I am to blame for that. Liam.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Liam, Dan the Herald's Business editor at large.

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Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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Speaker 2: News Talks at B from four pm weekdays, or follow

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