1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,000 Speaker 1: We got job to the headline at five point two 2 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: wasn't as bad as the five point three forecast, although 3 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: Auckland at six point one. I mean, come on, Mike Jones, 4 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: B and z's chief economist is back. Well this Mike 5 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:09,480 Speaker 1: morning to you. 6 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:10,959 Speaker 2: Good morning. 7 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: So five two better than five three. Obviously open the hood. 8 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 1: Though there's a lot to be depressed about, isn't there. 9 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, you didn't have to scratch too far below 10 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 2: the surface to find some conclusions that were probably but 11 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:24,799 Speaker 2: weaker when you put them all together in terms of 12 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: what we're expecting in the labor marketing. Auckland, as he said, 13 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 2: was probably one that's twelve year high. And of course 14 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 2: the whole reason unemployment and rise by more is that 15 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 2: the participation rate fell to a four year low and 16 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: more people leaving the labor force. Hardly a positive signal. 17 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 1: No, six point one. How bad's that for Auckland. I mean, 18 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: that's the allegedly the engine room of the country. 19 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, forty percent of the concrete output comes out of Auckland, 20 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 2: and that's six point three percent at a Twelvey high. 21 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 2: Is concerning. I mean, it does give you a sense 22 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 2: of just a divergence up and down the country as well. 23 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 2: I mean it's hargo two point nine percent, so you know, 24 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,839 Speaker 2: quite a big difference. But it does give you a 25 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 2: bit more evidence that in totality the lab market is 26 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 2: not in good shape and certainly weak. And I think 27 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 2: what the Reserve Bank had expected. 28 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: Exactly are they stuck in their building in Wellington? Are 29 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: I mean, yes, they'll get the numbers, but I mean 30 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: I happen to live in Auckland, as I assume you do. 31 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 1: You can feel it, you can see it. You know 32 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: it's bad, and they don't seem to be reflecting that 33 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 1: at the RB and on the terrace. 34 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 2: Well, the Artb's in Wellington and if anything thinks down 35 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 2: there are probably worse. It's certainly Auckland and Wellington the 36 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 2: urban centers that are feeling this the most. And of 37 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 2: course we're waiting for some of the more upbeat sentiment 38 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 2: and the rural reasons to spread back to the cities. 39 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,040 Speaker 2: Hasn't happened so far. Look, I think what this does 40 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: for the Reserve Bank is is it locks in another 41 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 2: cut in a couple of weeks time. I think that 42 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 2: was pretty likely anyway, But the fact that we've got 43 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 2: the start of coming gone. Now we can we think 44 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 2: that that almost sales the deal for one more and 45 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 2: probably two more. 46 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: Rate cups, Yes, exactly two more after that, or so 47 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 1: you've got the one coming this month plus two more 48 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: after that. I've got two point five is neutral? Now, Yes, 49 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 1: you say two seven five. 50 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:12,799 Speaker 2: We've been saying to seventy five for the UST a 51 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 2: couple of years now. So we're stuck with that two 52 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 2: point five. Definitely within the realms. I think it's gone 53 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 2: to our heads. If we had our TV, seventy five 54 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 2: would say to the risks at the moment are tilting 55 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 2: more to the down to the up. But there's also 56 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 2: a lot of water to go into the bridge before 57 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 2: we get to that final meeting in November. 58 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 1: And some of that water, though, was alluded to, I 59 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 1: think by Nicola Willis yesterday who said this isn't the 60 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: end of it. I mean yesterday's discussion was could this 61 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 1: be the worst the answers know, isn't it? I mean 62 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 1: there's more to come. 63 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 2: Well, the problem that we've got is that we're still 64 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: in this stumbling stop start sort of economic recovery, and 65 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 2: any time we get a fit that there as we 66 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 2: seem to be in at the moment with this mid 67 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 2: year ear pocket, it just bushes back the timing of 68 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 2: when you might expect that labor market to start turning around. 69 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 2: So I think we've talked about this before, but we 70 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 2: think that story is sliding probably into the first part 71 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 2: of next year and when you might start to see 72 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 2: unemployments Headlile rocking. 73 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 1: All right, nice to talk to you, Mike. As always, 74 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 1: that's that part of the story is sliding into next year. 75 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 1: So so forget twenty five folks. 76 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 2: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 77 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 2: news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow 78 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.