1
00:00:09,133 --> 00:00:12,693
Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks'd be follow

2
00:00:12,773 --> 00:00:16,213
Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.

3
00:00:17,133 --> 00:00:20,012
Speaker 2: The Reserve Bank has cut the official cash rate another

4
00:00:20,053 --> 00:00:23,453
Speaker 2: fifty basis points to four point twenty five percent. To

5
00:00:23,453 --> 00:00:25,812
Speaker 2: break it all down, we've got Liam dan And Studio

6
00:00:25,853 --> 00:00:28,813
Speaker 2: Business Editor at Large for The New Zealand Herald get alamay.

7
00:00:29,893 --> 00:00:32,373
Speaker 2: Now was I mean, clearly it wasn't a surprise. A

8
00:00:32,373 --> 00:00:35,693
Speaker 2: lot of people predicted the fifty basis point drop. Any

9
00:00:35,773 --> 00:00:39,933
Speaker 2: indication from the Reserve Bank about where they may go next.

10
00:00:40,093 --> 00:00:42,812
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, they do publish a new rate track and

11
00:00:42,853 --> 00:00:47,892
Speaker 3: new forecasts. I guess it's a little different since their

12
00:00:47,933 --> 00:00:52,213
Speaker 3: last August monetary policy statement, but not wildly out of

13
00:00:52,253 --> 00:00:54,733
Speaker 3: line with the forecasts and things we've been reading about

14
00:00:54,733 --> 00:00:58,693
Speaker 3: the economy. So the economy a little bit shabby, shall

15
00:00:58,733 --> 00:01:00,973
Speaker 3: we say, going into the start of twenty twenty five,

16
00:01:02,373 --> 00:01:05,733
Speaker 3: seeing a recovery in twenty twenty five, but they haven't

17
00:01:05,733 --> 00:01:09,973
Speaker 3: really changed the rate track much, so it's a slightly different.

18
00:01:10,693 --> 00:01:12,773
Speaker 3: So that I mean obviously that they see more rate

19
00:01:12,813 --> 00:01:15,693
Speaker 3: cuts to come. Most people seem to think there's another

20
00:01:15,733 --> 00:01:19,252
Speaker 3: fifty basis points, but it lands around three point five

21
00:01:20,493 --> 00:01:22,493
Speaker 3: somewhere around there in the middle of the year, and

22
00:01:22,493 --> 00:01:24,613
Speaker 3: they haven't changed that much, and I guess it's kind

23
00:01:24,613 --> 00:01:27,133
Speaker 3: of playing it with a straight bat. The market's seen

24
00:01:27,173 --> 00:01:29,853
Speaker 3: that is a little bit, you know, perhaps not quite

25
00:01:29,853 --> 00:01:32,493
Speaker 3: as dubbish as it might have been. The dollar went

26
00:01:32,572 --> 00:01:34,813
Speaker 3: up a little bit, which means that it could have

27
00:01:34,853 --> 00:01:37,333
Speaker 3: been they could have been more aggressive around round cutting.

28
00:01:37,373 --> 00:01:41,293
Speaker 3: So they've left the pathway pretty clear to go either way,

29
00:01:41,373 --> 00:01:43,813
Speaker 3: depending on what happens in the world. For example, you know,

30
00:01:43,893 --> 00:01:47,253
Speaker 3: they've they've alluded to a slow down, global slow down,

31
00:01:47,253 --> 00:01:49,693
Speaker 3: and of course they won't talk about Donald Trump, but

32
00:01:49,893 --> 00:01:53,013
Speaker 3: that's a huge variable coming around. Tariff's and all that

33
00:01:53,013 --> 00:01:53,813
Speaker 3: sort of stuff.

34
00:01:53,653 --> 00:01:54,453
Speaker 2: Certainly is here.

35
00:01:54,613 --> 00:01:57,733
Speaker 4: And of the banks reacted yet.

36
00:01:58,013 --> 00:02:00,093
Speaker 3: Well you would have seen probably A and Z moved

37
00:02:00,093 --> 00:02:02,733
Speaker 3: their fixed rates last night. But so far it's really

38
00:02:02,773 --> 00:02:05,373
Speaker 3: just the what I would call the standard marketing releases.

39
00:02:05,413 --> 00:02:07,333
Speaker 3: They say, oh, we've passed it on. Well, of course

40
00:02:07,333 --> 00:02:09,373
Speaker 3: you have. You've passed and it's on the floating rate,

41
00:02:09,533 --> 00:02:12,573
Speaker 3: so you expect the floating rate to pass through pretty cleanly.

42
00:02:13,093 --> 00:02:15,132
Speaker 3: Be something wrong if it didn't, but we haven't seen.

43
00:02:15,333 --> 00:02:16,893
Speaker 3: It Usually takes a little bit longer for them to

44
00:02:16,933 --> 00:02:18,933
Speaker 3: work do the maths and work out what they're going

45
00:02:19,013 --> 00:02:21,252
Speaker 3: to pass through on the fixed rates. But if that

46
00:02:21,413 --> 00:02:23,653
Speaker 3: A and Z move last night was any sort of guide,

47
00:02:23,693 --> 00:02:27,573
Speaker 3: it's more like sort of twenty basis points or it

48
00:02:27,573 --> 00:02:29,733
Speaker 3: won't be the full fifty that comes through on your

49
00:02:29,773 --> 00:02:33,173
Speaker 3: fixed rates over this the one year term. Something like that.

50
00:02:33,293 --> 00:02:36,333
Speaker 2: Yeah, So for those that have gone on to floating

51
00:02:36,413 --> 00:02:39,373
Speaker 2: while they waited for this cut, is their potential for

52
00:02:39,413 --> 00:02:41,413
Speaker 2: them to wait a few more weeks to see what

53
00:02:41,532 --> 00:02:43,413
Speaker 2: happens or is it's just too hard to tell, and

54
00:02:43,413 --> 00:02:45,053
Speaker 2: if you get a good deal from your bank, take it.

55
00:02:45,213 --> 00:02:47,493
Speaker 3: It's a very good question, because that's exactly what I did.

56
00:02:48,773 --> 00:02:52,693
Speaker 3: I think I'd be expecting something to come through around

57
00:02:52,693 --> 00:02:55,053
Speaker 3: my fixed rates in the next few days, and so

58
00:02:55,373 --> 00:02:58,292
Speaker 3: I'd imagine I'd be fixing in the next week or

59
00:02:58,333 --> 00:03:01,412
Speaker 3: so to get off the higher floating rate. Yeah, there's

60
00:03:01,413 --> 00:03:04,173
Speaker 3: another cut coming in February, but then way I do

61
00:03:04,213 --> 00:03:07,252
Speaker 3: it is split it into two halves of the mortgage,

62
00:03:07,252 --> 00:03:09,373
Speaker 3: so I have another going in April with the other

63
00:03:09,413 --> 00:03:12,173
Speaker 3: half of the mortgage. So yeah, yeah, everyone's got their

64
00:03:12,173 --> 00:03:13,813
Speaker 3: own strategy, right, Yeah, that's right.

65
00:03:13,853 --> 00:03:16,532
Speaker 4: What would have to happen for them not to lower

66
00:03:16,573 --> 00:03:18,692
Speaker 4: it again, you say that they're talking about they're talking

67
00:03:18,693 --> 00:03:20,893
Speaker 4: about some weird figure like three point four, which isn't

68
00:03:20,893 --> 00:03:21,613
Speaker 4: something that you like to.

69
00:03:21,733 --> 00:03:24,852
Speaker 3: Yeah, three point fours. It's a hypothetical figure, but they

70
00:03:24,972 --> 00:03:26,893
Speaker 3: just plot a graph and they don't really worry about

71
00:03:26,893 --> 00:03:31,053
Speaker 3: the reality of it. So that means that it's probably

72
00:03:31,053 --> 00:03:33,213
Speaker 3: three point five with some odds on landing at three

73
00:03:33,252 --> 00:03:36,053
Speaker 3: point twenty five, which would be yeah, a fifty basis

74
00:03:36,053 --> 00:03:39,093
Speaker 3: point cut, and then another twenty five and maybe another

75
00:03:39,093 --> 00:03:42,813
Speaker 3: twenty five. Yeah. Well, some of that depends on inflation.

76
00:03:42,973 --> 00:03:46,893
Speaker 3: So if inflation was to bounce back or didn't come

77
00:03:46,933 --> 00:03:49,893
Speaker 3: off in some of the areas that we're expecting, that

78
00:03:50,413 --> 00:03:53,533
Speaker 3: could slow them down. But otherwise it looks more like

79
00:03:53,573 --> 00:03:55,693
Speaker 3: you know that the commentary on reading is suggests that

80
00:03:55,733 --> 00:03:58,653
Speaker 3: it could actually and don't take this as gospel, but

81
00:03:58,693 --> 00:04:01,613
Speaker 3: it could actually go lower, you know. And so capital

82
00:04:01,653 --> 00:04:04,253
Speaker 3: economics are based in Singapore. They reckon they'll end up

83
00:04:04,293 --> 00:04:06,333
Speaker 3: cutting to two point twenty five or something like that,

84
00:04:06,373 --> 00:04:08,573
Speaker 3: which is pretty grim because they wouldn't do that nless

85
00:04:08,613 --> 00:04:10,493
Speaker 3: the economy was pretty rough next year.

86
00:04:10,573 --> 00:04:12,693
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, that's one of the interesting things because we

87
00:04:12,733 --> 00:04:15,613
Speaker 4: all celebrate that the interest rates are going down, but

88
00:04:15,653 --> 00:04:18,773
Speaker 4: it isn't actually a big thumbs up for the economy.

89
00:04:18,853 --> 00:04:20,813
Speaker 3: No, just just as long as you keep your job.

90
00:04:21,013 --> 00:04:23,733
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's all good, as long as your job

91
00:04:23,773 --> 00:04:24,213
Speaker 3: isn't the one that.

92
00:04:24,493 --> 00:04:26,413
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're going to throw this question out to the

93
00:04:26,453 --> 00:04:28,893
Speaker 2: audience very shortly, Liam, But how do you get the

94
00:04:28,893 --> 00:04:30,373
Speaker 2: best deal out of your bank? So, I mean, is

95
00:04:30,373 --> 00:04:33,093
Speaker 2: it worth negotiating at this point that if you're looking

96
00:04:33,093 --> 00:04:34,773
Speaker 2: to refix and you go to your bank, or you're

97
00:04:34,813 --> 00:04:36,693
Speaker 2: broke it for that matter, and say, hey, I want

98
00:04:36,693 --> 00:04:39,013
Speaker 2: a better deal negotiate for me, is that ever worth it?

99
00:04:39,253 --> 00:04:39,493
Speaker 1: Yeah?

100
00:04:39,893 --> 00:04:41,933
Speaker 3: See, I'm a terrible person to ask in some respects

101
00:04:41,973 --> 00:04:45,413
Speaker 3: because I've been with my bank since I was fourteen,

102
00:04:45,573 --> 00:04:48,573
Speaker 3: so I've never really threatened to throw the toys. But

103
00:04:49,013 --> 00:04:52,893
Speaker 3: I've only only really, you know, had one mortgage one,

104
00:04:52,933 --> 00:04:55,493
Speaker 3: you know. Yeah, look, I mean you get this. You

105
00:04:55,493 --> 00:04:57,653
Speaker 3: want to get the special rate. Obviously they do a

106
00:04:57,693 --> 00:04:59,973
Speaker 3: special rate for people with a bit of capital in

107
00:05:00,013 --> 00:05:04,013
Speaker 3: the house. And then beyond that, I guess, Yeah, like

108
00:05:04,333 --> 00:05:07,053
Speaker 3: all negotiations, you've got to be prepared to actually walk away,

109
00:05:07,053 --> 00:05:09,293
Speaker 3: don't you, Which you are. Good luck to you. I mean,

110
00:05:09,333 --> 00:05:12,773
Speaker 3: it's quite it's quite an effort to switch banks. It's

111
00:05:12,773 --> 00:05:14,613
Speaker 3: supposed to be getting easier. That's the whole point of

112
00:05:14,653 --> 00:05:16,893
Speaker 3: all this stuff. Yeah, open banking stuff, is that we're

113
00:05:16,893 --> 00:05:18,893
Speaker 3: all supposed to be able to switch banks far more easily.

114
00:05:19,093 --> 00:05:20,693
Speaker 3: Put a bit more pressure on them to give us

115
00:05:20,693 --> 00:05:21,373
Speaker 3: the good deals.

116
00:05:21,533 --> 00:05:23,653
Speaker 4: When you go and talk to your bank, do they

117
00:05:24,413 --> 00:05:26,933
Speaker 4: do they acknowledge that you're the business editor at large

118
00:05:26,973 --> 00:05:31,853
Speaker 4: for the New Zealand Herald and negotiate with you accordingly.

119
00:05:32,373 --> 00:05:35,053
Speaker 3: Well, just to the extent that, yeah, one or two

120
00:05:35,173 --> 00:05:37,013
Speaker 3: times they've worked it out, and then they just want

121
00:05:37,013 --> 00:05:40,213
Speaker 3: to ask me what's going to happen, and you know,

122
00:05:40,613 --> 00:05:41,093
Speaker 3: we don't know.

123
00:05:41,373 --> 00:05:43,533
Speaker 4: You could use your position say like this is definitely

124
00:05:43,533 --> 00:05:45,053
Speaker 4: what's going to happen. So this is the rate you

125
00:05:45,093 --> 00:05:45,493
Speaker 4: need to get.

126
00:05:45,733 --> 00:05:48,973
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, great stuff, Leah. Always good to chat. Thank

127
00:05:49,013 --> 00:05:51,293
Speaker 2: you very much. That is Liam Dan, business Editor at

128
00:05:51,373 --> 00:05:52,573
Speaker 2: Large for the New Zealand Herald.

129
00:05:53,093 --> 00:05:56,013
Speaker 1: For more from News Talks b listen live on air

130
00:05:56,213 --> 00:05:58,933
Speaker 1: or online, and keep our shows with you wherever you

131
00:05:58,973 --> 00:06:01,413
Speaker 1: go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio