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Speaker 1: Good evening seven after five news talks. They'd be Trump's

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Speaker 1: trade wars on China, Canada, Mexico. They're all retaliating. The

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Speaker 1: President's been addressed in Congress. He says there's more to come.

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Speaker 2: So the tariffs will go on agricultural product coming into

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Speaker 2: America and our farmer is starting on April second. It

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Speaker 2: may be a little bit of an adjustment period. We

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Speaker 2: had that before when I made the deal with China

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Speaker 2: fifty billion dollars of purchases and I said just bear

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Speaker 2: with me, and they did.

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Speaker 1: You can say that again the can we save a

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Speaker 1: providers here and warning tough times ahead. As you can imagine,

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Speaker 1: markets have been hugely volatile. The big question, of course

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Speaker 1: is how long is this going to last. Tom mcclay's,

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Speaker 1: the Minister of Trade, is with us. Good evening, Minister.

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Speaker 3: Ryan, Hey, how are you good?

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Speaker 1: Thank you? How have you got any numbers there or

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Speaker 1: any any information from officials on modeling on how this

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Speaker 1: might impact New Zealand.

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Speaker 3: Well, from the point of view of the tariffs that

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Speaker 3: are the US is opposed on Canada, Mexico and China,

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Speaker 3: and the retality ones which they're talking about haven't released yet.

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Speaker 3: No we don't get a picture of that. And the

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Speaker 3: reason for that is although we're not directly affected in

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Speaker 3: this latest round of terrace, there is going to be

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Speaker 3: some flow on effect, either because of confidence of those

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Speaker 3: markets where consumers and businesses don't buy as much though

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Speaker 3: as we trade with, or secondly as a result of

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Speaker 3: New Zealand companies that may have a presence there Mexico

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Speaker 3: as an example with Fisher and pikel who will be

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Speaker 3: directly affected. So after officials to work that up, but

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Speaker 3: until we see more detail, it is a little bit

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Speaker 3: hard to know. It would be a bit of second guessing.

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Speaker 3: But I can tell you we're taking this very seriously,

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Speaker 3: and as I said on your show a couple of

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Speaker 3: weeks ago, we instructed officials and our embassy in Washington

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Speaker 3: to be engaged proactively with US administration and reminding them

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Speaker 3: of making the case of how well our trading relationships

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Speaker 3: and how balanced it is. They continue to do that,

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Speaker 3: but we're going to see exactly what President Trump is

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Speaker 3: talking about when it comes to agriculture.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that is the big worry. We heads the Meat

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Speaker 1: Industry Association. We had Nathan Guy on the show last night.

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Speaker 1: He said he's really worried about the agricultural tariffs is

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Speaker 1: talking about, because that's I mean, that's our bread and butter.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's very important to us, all right. So if

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Speaker 3: tariff is put on all exports to the US, whilst

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Speaker 3: we will remain competitive against others, it's just a cost

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Speaker 3: to the New Zealand exporterer. It's a tax or a

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Speaker 3: tariff at the border. There's more to this, though than

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Speaker 3: just the tweet of the announcement the other night from

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Speaker 3: the President. If you think about beef as an example,

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Speaker 3: New Zealand beef is an important market for US. Predominantly

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Speaker 3: it's mixed with the US beef and we have a

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Speaker 3: lot of beefat that goes up for their hamburgers. We

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Speaker 3: know that they need to bring that in for the

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Speaker 3: amount of hamburger they eat. If there is a tariff

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Speaker 3: or it can't come in from overseas, are either going

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Speaker 3: to have shortages or those prices go up. And I

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Speaker 3: think that's why you've seen, you know, the market in

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Speaker 3: the US and elsewhere in the world take quite a

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Speaker 3: hit over the last day or two. What we don't

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Speaker 3: know is whether he's talking about all agricultural products and

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Speaker 3: everybody or some from some parts of the world exactly what.

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Speaker 3: But our people are engaging most informations they can.

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Speaker 1: And are they listening to what we're saying? You know,

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Speaker 1: the argument about the balanced trade is a good one,

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Speaker 1: but are they listening to it? About the beef and

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Speaker 1: the meat paddies is a good one, but are they

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Speaker 1: listening Well.

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Speaker 3: I think at the level of the officials and those

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Speaker 3: who engage with we have a good hearing and there's

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Speaker 3: very good and constructive conversations on going. But I think

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Speaker 3: I think that you look at the you know, the

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Speaker 3: social media the other night and the President said that

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Speaker 3: he's focusing on agriculture next and we'll see what that means.

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Speaker 3: But there's a there's a second part of this. If

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Speaker 3: we take both Canada and also China as examples, they

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Speaker 3: are both important beef from the US. The US has

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Speaker 3: slapped tarras on them that said they're going to reciprocate.

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Speaker 3: So in the case of China, they will still need

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Speaker 3: the beef that they are bringing from the rest of

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Speaker 3: the world from the US. On the you know, the

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Speaker 3: restaurant tabor of the supermarket shelves. They their consumers are

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Speaker 3: like you look out where and so there will be

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Speaker 3: some opportunities for New Zealand, which is hugely.

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Speaker 1: Which is hugely ironic, right, because we've been trying to

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Speaker 1: diversify away from China and we diversified towards America. It's

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Speaker 1: now our second largest trading partner for goods and now

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Speaker 1: we've been hit with these potentially been hit with these terriffts.

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Speaker 1: It's ironic.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right. The other case that we have been

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Speaker 3: making will continue to is actually New Zealand exporters into

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Speaker 3: the US market predominantly face greater tariff rates, higher tariff

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Speaker 3: rates than US exporters into New Zealand, and the reason

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Speaker 3: for that is we have a very low tariff hrasing.

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Speaker 3: I've asked my officials to go through line by line

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Speaker 3: and fight everywhere there is a discrepancy where our TWI

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Speaker 3: rate might be higher than there, so we have a

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Speaker 3: clear understanding of that. So far, much of that there

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Speaker 3: are no imports from the US down to New Zealand.

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Speaker 3: But we're working through that so that we can be

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Speaker 3: in a better place to know what we need to do.

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Speaker 1: All right, Minister, thank you very much for your time.

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Speaker 1: Tom McLay, the Minister Trade in the midst of a

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Speaker 1: trade war. Twelve minutes after.

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Speaker 3: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive.

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Speaker 1: Listen live to News Talks it B from four pm weekdays,

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